Dr. Athena Roumboutsos Action TU1001 Chair

University of the AegeanDpt. Shipping, Trade & Transport P3T3

COST Action TU1001Public Private Partnerships in Transport: Trends

& TheoryP3T3

for TRB Public Private Partnership Subcommittee

ABE10Washington DC, 14 Jan. 2013

Dr. Athena RoumboutsosAction TU1001 Chair

University of the AegeanDpt. Shipping, Trade & Transport P3T3

Introduction to COST Action TU1001 – Public Private Partnerships in Transport: Trends & Theory (P3T3)

P3T3 Objectives P3T3 Set up P3T3 Research Value Propositions

Overview

What we are doing

Future

University of the AegeanDpt. Shipping, Trade & Transport P3T3

AT, BE, BG, CH, CY, CZ, DE, DK, EL, ES, ET, FI, FR, IR, IT, NL, NO, PL, PT, SI, SK, SR, SV, UK

Chair : EL

P3T3 Network: Who’s Who

5 Non-COST Countries : AU, HK, CH, US, AL& WB

COST Countries : 24

OR 100 Researchers from approx. 50 institutes≅36 assigned by National Governments

COST Action TU1001, 2010 - 2014

University of the AegeanDpt. Shipping, Trade & Transport P3T3

P3T3: Objectives (Memorandum of Understanding, MoU)

….The aim of the Action is to develop a theoretical basis for PPPs in the transport sector grounded on the multidisciplinary analysis of an extensive cross-sectoral and transnational empirical data-set.

….. a shift from a descriptive to a normative approach

……for the prediction and forecasting of variations, impacts and outcomes.

MODELS

University of the AegeanDpt. Shipping, Trade & Transport P3T3

P3T3: Objectives (MoU)

Decision making process Selection, implementation and

operation of PPP transport projects considering sustainable procurement‘ and value propositions‘

PPP performance CSF, KPIs, test criteria

Impact of External Events Implications of the financing

arrangement.

Modal perspective National Perspective

University of the AegeanDpt. Shipping, Trade & Transport P3T3

ResearchWG: Decision Models

Deterministic Models

Stochastic Models

FlexibleModels

Complete

Contracts

Incomplete

Contracts

Real OptionsFlexibility TheoryRisk Mitigation StrategiesTenderingField of Applicability

Policy Guidance Framework

TEST/SIMULATE/SURVEY

PPPs Need

Flexibility

University of the AegeanDpt. Shipping, Trade & Transport P3T3

ResearchWG: Performance Step 5:

Performance Analysis and Improvement

Step 1: Performance Definition

Step 2: Objectives

(at Different levels)

Step 3: Criteria

(Based on KPIs and CSF)

Step 4: Benchmarking

Policy Guidance Framework

How Flexible?

University of the AegeanDpt. Shipping, Trade & Transport P3T3

ResearchAWG: Modal Context

Case Study Database

FOR Testing Theories Benchmarks Analysis Synthesis …..References

University of the AegeanDpt. Shipping, Trade & Transport P3T3

ResearchAWG: National Context

National Characteristics Database Legal framework Business structures Etc

Impact of External events Macroeconomic

Figures Transport Demand

FOR Testing Theories Benchmarks Analysis Synthesis Correlations …..References

University of the AegeanDpt. Shipping, Trade & Transport P3T3

ResearchWG: “Impact of External Events”

Addressing Contract Incompleteness Changes in initial

Assumptions Changes in initial Predictions Changes in initial “values” Changes in Perceptions Changes transport market

structure & regulations

New Financing Models New Needs in Transport New Value creation

New PPP Models

Addressing Existing PPPs Renegotiations

Complete

Contracts

Incomplete

Contracts

University of the AegeanDpt. Shipping, Trade & Transport P3T3

Connecting Dots …Research

Flexible Decision Models

KPIs & CSFs

Addressing

Incompleteness

Modal ContextDatabase

National ContextDatabase /Data

Policy Guidelin

es

Transport PolicyProcurement /

Contract Guidelines

Model Building

Model Testing

ExpectedOutcome

University of the AegeanDpt. Shipping, Trade & Transport P3T3

FutureNew research proposal

University of the AegeanDpt. Shipping, Trade & Transport P3T3

Value Basis

Change in Value projections

Elasticity in Value Basis

Visualizing flexible Value System modelsResearchValue projections depending on:

• Project Type• Project Size• Project “portfolios” for:

• the user• the lender• the Public Authority• the private provider

Change in the Value Basis by• Country (?)• Mode (?)• Project life cycle

(?)• Economic

Environment (?)

• Re- negotiations

Increase of value basis through• Innovation (?)• Cross “fertilization” (?)• Other Value Capture (?)

University of the AegeanDpt. Shipping, Trade & Transport P3T3

PPP Observatory

University of the AegeanDpt. Shipping, Trade & Transport P3T3

www.ppptransport.eu www.cost.eu/domains_actions/tud/Actions/TU1001&

[email protected] // [email protected]

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