1 DP0904 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos José Armando Campos CST 2 nd nd International Meeting on Ironmaking International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st st International Symposium on Iron Ore International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13 Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13 th th , 2004 , 2004 ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ABM ABM
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DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES.
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1DP0904
COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃOCOMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO
José Armando CamposJosé Armando CamposCST
22ndnd International Meeting on Ironmaking International Meeting on Ironmaking11st st International Symposium on Iron OreInternational Symposium on Iron Ore
Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13 thth, 2004, 2004
ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ABMASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ABM
2DP0904
Source: Average Market Expectations – BACEN, as of July 30, 2004
GDP - PROJECTIONSGDP - PROJECTIONS
Sector 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Industrial -1.00 4.73 3.66 4.02 3.97
Agricultural 5.00 4.85 4.11 4.22 4.21
Services -0.10 2.45 2.57 3.08 3.28
Total -0.20 3.72 3.53 3.74 3.71
%
3DP0904
1,9
-0,2
3,73,5
3,7 3,7 3,8
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: Market Average Expectations – BACEN, as of July 30, 2004
The variation of 4.2% in the 1H04/1H03, shows that it is possible to have, in 2004, an economic growth greater than the projected number.
The dynamic recently generated in the industry will make the 2005 growth larger than the projected number due to a greater carry-over
%
GDP - PROJECTIONSGDP - PROJECTIONS
4DP0904
Source: IBGE, Anfavea, others
• Greatest 1st semester growth since 2000.
• Growth in all sectors.
• In terms of demand the biggest growth were in exports, which had a 17.8% increase. The indirect steel exports increased 33.5% (1H04/1H03).
• Automobile production in the 1st semester went up by 15% compared to the same period in 2003.
EVOLUTION OF THE PARTICIPATION OF THE MAIN FINAL CONSUMER SECTORS EVOLUTION OF THE PARTICIPATION OF THE MAIN FINAL CONSUMER SECTORS
APPARENT CONSUMPTIONAPPARENT CONSUMPTION
Source: IBS
Construction Industry
Automotive Industry
Capital Goods, Machines and Equipment (incl. Agricultural)
Household and Commercial Appliances
%
10DP0904
DOMESTIC SALESDOMESTIC SALES
Source: IBS
January ~ June total domestic sales when comparing 04/03 shows an increase of 11% (flat and long).
2002 2003 2004 04/02 04/03
Automotive Industry 449.393 456.534 612.445 36,3 34,2Auto Parts 498.106 551.482 671.683 34,8 21,8Shipbuilding 23.799 15.376 56.892 139,1 270,0Agricultural and Highway Machinery 102.918 132.501 168.057 63,3 26,8Construction Industry 485.431 479.301 532.851 9,8 11,2Household and Commercial Appliances 238.905 228.317 274.989 15,1 20,4
SectoresJanuary - July (tonnes) Variation (%)
11DP0904
EXPORTSEXPORTS
Source: IBS
Exports reached 7.5 mt between January and July 2004; 4.5% greater than the same period in 2003.
Between January and July/2004 semi-finished products represented 52% of our exports, flat products 28%, long products 15% and others 5%.
2003 2004Jan ~ July
Asia45.5%
North Am.21.6%
Latin Am.19.0%
Europe10.4%
* 3.5%
Asia36.1%
North Am. 25.6%
Latin Am.23.4%
Europe10.7%
* 4.2%
(*) Middle East, Africa, Oceania
12DP0904
Steel exports currently represent 42% of total production of finished and semi-finished products. About 55% of the exports correspond to semi-finished products.Finished products exports surpass the level of 5.5 million tons/year for nearly all types of products.
INVESTMENTS IN THE REDUCTION AREAINVESTMENTS IN THE REDUCTION AREA
EVOLUTION OF THE PROJECTED INSTALLED CAPACITY EVOLUTION OF THE PROJECTED INSTALLED CAPACITY
7,0 7,0 7,0
22,923,6 23,6
24,4 24,9 24,9
19,2 19,5 19,6
23,124,0
24,7
7,08,6 9,1 9,1
7,57,57,05,0
15,0
25,0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Blast Furnaces
Sinter Plants
Coke Plants
SOL included
mt
Source: IBS
19DP0904
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Private ControlState ControlUS$ million
Investments in Brazilian Steel Industry
Source: IBS
INVESTMENTSINVESTMENTS
Projection+ US$ 7.4 bi
US$ 13.0 bi
20DP0904
Prices Variation – R$/t(Base January 2002 = 100)
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
jan/0
2
mar
/02
may
/02
jul/0
2
sept
/02
nov/0
2
jan/0
3
mar
/03
may
/03
jul/0
3
sept
/03
nov/0
3
jan/0
4
mar
/04
may
/04
Scrap
Iron Ore
IGP-M
Pig Iron
Electric Power
jun/0
4
PRICES – RAW MATERIALS x INFLATIONPRICES – RAW MATERIALS x INFLATION
21DP0904
COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃOCOMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO
José Armando CamposJosé Armando CamposCST
22ndnd International Meeting on Ironmaking International Meeting on Ironmaking11st st International Symposium on Iron OreInternational Symposium on Iron Ore
Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13 thth, 2004, 2004
ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ABMASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ABM