Downtown Housing - Montanahousing.mt.gov/Portals/93/shared/docs/HousingDivision/...Buy-Sell Rates by Age Source: Dowell Myers & SungHo Ryu, “Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational

Downtown HousingPreparing for the Big Senior Selloff

Brent A. Campbell, P.E.

President & CEO

WGM Group, Inc.

• Why Downtown Housing Matters

• The Future of Housing Demand

• Downtown Housing Types & Innovation

Why Downtown Housing Matters

Creating a Vibrant City Center

• Downtown Residential

– Supports Retail & Services

– 24 Hr. Pedestrian Activity

– Lively Social Environment

– Close to Entertainment

– Walkable

The Future of Housing Demand

Reshaping Metropolitan America

Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP

Presidential Professor and Director

Metropolitan Research Center

University of Utah

Development Trends & Opportunities to 2030

People Turning 65 by Year

Source: National Academy Press, www.nap.edu, Figure 3-7, 3 Demographic Trends, Board of

Trustees, Federal Old Aged and Survivors Insurance Trust

Buy-Sell Rates by Age

Source: Dowell Myers & SungHo Ryu, “Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble:

Foresight and Mitigation of an Epic

Transition”, Journal of the American Planning Association 74(1): 1‐17 (2007).

Changing Households

Household 1960 2000 2025

With Children 48 % 33 % 28 %

Without Children 52 % 67 % 72 %

Single 13 % 26 % 28 %

Source: Census for 1960 and 2000, 2025 adapted from Martha Farnsworth Riche, How Changes

in the Nation’s Age and Household Structure Will Reshape Housing Demand in the 21st Century,

HUD (2003).

Relocation Choices of Seniors

Housing Type Before Move After Move

Attached 24 % 54 %

Renter 20 % 59 %

Multifamily Share 2010 30%

Multifamily Share 2020 36 %

MF Share of New Unit Demand 2010-2020 50 %

Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., Presidential Professor and Director,

Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah

75 % of all Seniors will Change Housing type between ages 65 and 80.

The Great Senior Sell-Off

Source: Dowell Myers & Sung Ho Ryu, “Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble:

Foresight and Mitigation of an Epic

Transition”, Journal of the American Planning Association 74(1): 1‐17 (2007).

Active Adult (+55)Market Demand

AA Features & Location, 25%

AA Entry Level, 15%AA

Elite, 12%

Features & Location, 8%

Entry Level, 12%

Elite, 18%

Simple Life, 4%

Family Life, 7% Projected For-SaleHousing Demand

52 %

Features & LocationMarket Demand

AA Features & Location, 25%

Features & Location, 8%

AA Entry Level, 15%

Entry Level, 12%

AA Elite, 12%

Elite, 18%

Simple Life, 4%

Family Life, 7% Projected For-SaleHousing Demand

33 %

Demand for Housing Type

Source: Smart Growth America, The Urban Land Institute Presentation

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2003 Supply 2025 Demand Net New UnitsNeeded

Attached

Small Lot

Large Lot

Demand for Housing Type

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

2010 Supply 2020 Demand Net New UnitsNeeded

Attached

Small Lot

Large Lot

Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., Presidential Professor and Director,

Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah

Downtown Housing Types & Innovation

Market ComponentsResidential Housing

• Changing Demographics & Market Demand

• For Sale Housing

– Small Lot

– Condominiums

– Townhomes

• For Rent Housing

Old Sawmill District

Riverfront Triangle

Brownstone Townhome

Townhomes

“Block M” Townhomes

Condominiums

Micro Housing

Container Housing

Container Housing

ImplementationPlanning Tools

• Downtown Master Plans– Economic & Market

Studies

– Parking Studies

– Traffic Studies

– Capital Improvement Plans (CIP)

• Special Zoning Districts– Residential Overlay

• Historic Districts & Overlays

• Design Guidelines

Impediments

• High Land Costs – Rental Income

Replacement

• Construction Costs of New Housing

• Hazardous Materials & Cleanup

• Existing Infrastructure - Aging

• Existing Regulatory Process (Zoning)

• Neighborhood Issues

• Historic Preservation

Recommendations

• Residential Overlays In Specific Areas

• Townhome, Condominium, Apartments

• Form Based Code (Build-To Rather than

Setbacks

• Build Public Parking

• Form Public Private Partnerships

• Increase Residential Density (1/1000 sf CBD?)

• Evaluate Infrastructure Readiness

• TIF Funding Critical – Levels Playing Field

Summary

Downtown Residential

• Will be in High Demand

• The Current Supply is Relatively Low

• For-Sale and Rental Product are in Demand

• Product Type Will Change – Active Adult Market

• Large Lot Suburban Housing in some markets will

be in trouble.

• Parking is Key!

Downtown HousingPreparing for the Big Senior Selloff

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