Does Google Still Need Links? Off-Site Ranking Factors for 2017
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Does Google Still Need Links?Off-Site Ranking Factors for 2017
MozCon, September 2016
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PageRank & links were a proxyfor user behaviour
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Google doesn’t need a proxy anymore
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Google is a browser
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Google is an ISP
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Google is, of course,a dominant search engine
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& links have become a dirty signal
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(Rand says) Build links that might genuinely drive high quality traffic
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Today, taking this further
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I’m going to try to present both sides of this argument
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& I have some data to share with you
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Don’t tweet this:
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Do tweet this:
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Over the next 30 minutes:
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Has it already happened?
What could replace links?
What should you do next?
What could replace links?
What would you do?
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Machine learning
Brand
What if you could find away to measure brand?
We all struggle with this.
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This is elementary for Google.
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All of the above & much more besides
All of these factors correlatewith each other, and links
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Has it already happened?
What could replace links?
What should you do next?
Has it already happened?
What does Google say?
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“And I can tell you what they are.It is content. And it’s links pointing to your site.”
Andrey Lipattsev, Search Quality Senior Strategist, Googlehttps://youtu.be/l8VnZCcl9J4
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Question: Are links already redundant?● Google: No
End of talk?
Counterclaim:Google is routinely wrong technically
correct about how Google works
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Classic examples:● HTTPS migrations pre-2016● 302s are as good as 301s● Subdomains are as good as sub-folders● CCTLDs are as good as .com
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Question: Are links already redundant?● Google: No
Correlations
Lots of people have found correlations
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We all know that correlationdoes not imply causation
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But causation & coincidenceare not the only possibilities
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We’ve all enjoyed this
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http://dis.tl/TylerVigen
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But how do these happen?
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Potential Mechanisms
1. Complete coincidence - Nicholas Cage and drownings are in fact unrelated
(!)
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Potential Mechanisms
1. Complete coincidence - Nicholas Cage and drownings are in fact unrelated
(!)
2. Linearity - both cheese consumption and bedsheet-related deaths are
trending linearly, and thus loosely correlated
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Potential Mechanisms
1. Complete coincidence - Nicholas Cage and drownings are in fact unrelated
(!)
2. Linearity - both cheese consumption and bedsheet-related deaths are
trending linearly , and thus loosely correlated
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Potential Mechanisms
1. Complete coincidence - Nicholas Cage and drownings are in fact unrelated
(!)
2. Linearity - both cheese consumption and bedsheet-related deaths are
trending linearly, and thus loosely correlated
3. Reverse causation - it is in fact drownings that cause Nicholas Cage films,
not vice versa
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Potential Mechanisms
1. Complete coincidence - Nicholas Cage and drownings are in fact unrelated
(!)
2. Linearity - both cheese consumption and bedsheet-related deaths are
trending linearly, and thus loosely correlated
3. Reverse causation - it is in fact drownings that cause Nicholas Cage films,
not vice versa
4. Joint causation - both cheese consumption and deaths in bedsheets are
related to increasing affluence (& effluence)
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Affluence causes:● Cheese consumption● Bedsheet deaths
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Brand awareness causes:● Links● Rankings?
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Question: Are links already redundant?● Google: No● Correlation Studies: Inconclusive
So how does brand awareness compare?
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Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT
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Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT
Top 50 results Top 10 results
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Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT
Top 50 results Top 10 results
Desktop only (?) Desktop & Smartphone
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Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT
Top 50 results Top 10 results
Desktop only (?) Desktop & Smartphone
Mean Spearman correlations Mean Spearman correlations
Quantifying Brand Awareness
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Branded Search Volume
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Therefore:
If you care about DA, you should care about Branded Search Volume
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& here’s another interesting thing
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For my main data set, both variables are incredibly statistically significant
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DA significance:
99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999%
Log(branded search volume) significance:
99.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
9999999999999999999999999999%
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For some clients, including both in the same model knocks DA out of statistical
significance
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What does this mean?
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Branded Search Volume explains most of what can be explained with DA
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The reverse is not true.
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(Yes I will be publishing this data)
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Question: Are links already redundant?● Google: No● Correlation Studies: Inconclusive● My Data: Yes
Counterclaim: This might have been true in 1998
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Qualitatively, what doesranking flux look like?
Real World Example 1: Flowers
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Keyword: FlowersMarket: GB-enPeriod: May-Dec 2016Device: Smartphone
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What do we notice?1. Highly erratic
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What do we notice?1. Highly erratic2. Interflora collapsed
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What do we notice?1. Highly erratic2. Interflora collapsed3. DA 33 site overtakes DA 53 site(s)
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Old-school ranking factors:1. On-site2. Algorithm updates3. Links
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Old-school ranking factors:1. On-site2. Algorithm updates3. Links
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Old-school ranking factors:1. On-site2. Algorithm updates3. Links
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Interflora.co.uk
Flyingflowers.co.uk
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Interflora.co.uk
Flyingflowers.co.uk
40 domains
40 domains
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Old-school ranking factors:1. On-site2. Algorithm updates3. Links
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This is not unusual.
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Takeaway 1:Google is continuously iterating
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Takeaway 2:(Users like) Aesthetics & Price
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Real World Example 2: Fleximize.com
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Content piece gains 168 referring domains
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Content piece gains 22 referring domains
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Content piece gains 191 referring domains
Takeaway:Links move the needle ...sometimes?
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Question: Are links already redundant?● Google: No● Correlation Studies: Inconclusive● My Data: Yes● Anecdotal: Mixed
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So: Are links dead yet?
There is quantitative and qualitative evidence to suggest that links are not
always the most important off-site factor.
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Bringing all this together
An explanation that is consistentwith all of this
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There are now two tiers.
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1. At the competitive, data-rich top end, links mean increasingly little
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1. At the competitive, data-rich top end, links mean increasingly little
2. But, for now, links might be a big part of what gets you into that shortlist.
Has it already happened?
What could replace links?
What should you do next?
What should you do next?
Win at user testing
User testing for SEO: Places to start
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User testing for SEO: Places to start
1. Panda surveys
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https://youtu.be/At51X-aZ4Y4
User testing for SEO: Places to start
1. Panda surveys
2. Click-through rate experiments
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User testing for SEO: Places to start
1. Panda surveys
2. Click-through rate experiments
3. Plain old CRO - especially focusing on initial bounce
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User testing for SEO: Places to start
1. Panda surveys
2. Click-through rate experiments
3. Plain old CRO - especially focusing on initial bounce
4. All of the above: Mobile first
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User testing for SEO: Places to start
1. Panda surveys
2. Click-through rate experiments
3. Plain old CRO - especially focusing on initial bounce
4. All of the above: Mobile first
None of this is new!
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Win at brand awareness & perception
(Content marketing, anyone?)
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(& this has additional benefitsoutside of digital)
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Google is trying to think like a person
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So cut out the middleman:
Optimize for people
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If you want to build links, think:
Would Google value this tacticin a world without links?
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Closing thoughts
Has it already happened?
What could replace links?
What should you do next?
Thank You
@THCapper
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