DOE Mindanao Energy Plan CDO Feb 22 2013

DEPARTMENTOF ENERGY

A Look Into the Mindanao Energy Plan

2012-2030

Dir. Jesus T. TamangCagayan de OroFebruary 22, 2013

Energy Reform Agenda (ERA)

Good Governance thru stakeholder participation, transparency,

multi-sectoral partnership and use of ICT

Ensure Energy Security

Achieve OptimalEnergy Pricing

Develop aSustainable

Energy System

“Energy Access for More” A key priority of government to

mainstream access of the greater majority to reliable energy services and fuel, most importantly, local productivity

and countryside development

TransparencyInitiatives, Implementation and Information

Ensure Energy Security

Expand Energy Access

Promote Low-Carbon

Future

Climate Proof the Energy

Sector

Policy ThrustsPEP 2012-2030

Source: NREP 2011-2030

Ensure Energy SecurityTriple the RE Capacity by 2030

Sector Short Term(2011-2015)

Medium Term(2016-2020)

Long Term(2021-2030)

Total(in MW)

Geothermal 220.0 1,100.0 175.0 1,495.0

Hydropower 341.3 3,161.0 1,891.8 5,394.1

Biomass 276.7 276.7

Biofuels DC on E10 in 2011 Mandatory E10 to

all Gasoline by 2012

PNS for B5 by 2014

DC on B5 by 2015 Mandatory B5 to

all Diesel by 2015

PNS for B20 and E85 by 2020

DC on B10 and E20 by 2020

DC on B20 and E85 by 2025

Wind 200.0 700.0 1,445.0 2,345.0

Solar 50.0 100.0 200.0 350.0

Ocean Power

0 35.5 35.0 70.5

TOTAL (in MW)

1,088.0 5,096.5 3,746.8 9,931.3

Ensure Energy SecurityPromote Indigenous Fossil Fuels

*@10,000 BTU/lb

Fossil Fuel 2011 2012-2030

Oil (MMB) 2.3 78.0

Gas (BCF) 140.4 2,837.8

Condensate (MMB)

5.1 70.8

Coal (MMMT*) 6.9 229.9

PECR for Coal was launched on 01 December 2011 offering 38 prospective coal areas

Offered areas are located in:

Agusan del Norte, Misamis Oriental, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Sur, Compostela Valley, Davao Oriental, Lanao del Sur, Lanao del Norte, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Saranggani, Zamboanga del Norte and Zamboanga Sibugay.

Ensure Energy SecurityPromote Indigenous Fossil Fuels

A. Increase installed capacityB. Upgrade and expand transmission and

distribution networkC. Interconnect the island gridsD. Expand energy market from Luzon-

Visayas to Mindanao and include RE.

Ensure Energy SecurityReliable and Efficient Power Sector, in MW

GridRequired by 2030

Installed (end 2011)

Committed Indicative Net

Luzon 20,707.7 11,811.1 868.7 6,819.3 1,280.7

Visayas 4,412.0 2,393.8 310.0 433.0 1,267.0

Mindanao 4,210.0 2,022.0 588.0 527.0 1,073.0

TOTAL 29,329.7

16,226.9

1,766.7 7,779.3 3,620.7

NGCP’s Grid Development Map

Ensure Energy SecurityReliable and Efficient Power Sector

Upgrade and expand the transmission lines

Interconnect Mindanao with the Visayas

Batangas-Mindoro Interconnection

Expand Energy Access Transmission Development Projects

Type of Project

Transmission Lines Substations

No. of Projects

Kilovolts (kV)

Kilometers (Km.)

No. of Project

s

No. of Substatio

ns Luzon

New 7 1,673 368.5 1 15 Upgrading/Expansion 4 1,035 133.55 11 50

Sub-total 11 2,708 502.05 12 65 Visayas

New 10 1,817 688.91 2 28 Upgrading/Expansion - - - 2 8

Sub-total 10 1,817 688.91 4 36 Mindanao

New 6 1,150 513.00 2 11 Upgrading/Expansion - - - 3 24

Sub-total 6 1,150 513.00 5 35 Philippines

New 23 4640 1570.41 5 54 Upgrading/Expansion 4 1035 133.55 16 82 TOTAL 27 5,675 1,703.96 21 136

Expand Energy AccessAchieve 90% Household Electrification by 2017

Achieve 100% Sitio Electrification by 2015

• Area / Regional Depots• Service / Refilling Stations• LPG Refilling Stations• Distribution Pipelines

Expand Energy AccessDownstream Oil Sector

The Bright Now! Campaign aims to educate and empower Filipinos to be smart energy users

Expand coverage of energy labeling program and move towards standardization

Government to lead 10.0 percent savings on fuel and electricity

Consistent with the ASEAN and APEC Targets

Promote Low-Carbon FutureAchieve 10.0 Percent Energy Savings by 2030

Energy Standards and Labeling Program will be expanded to cover:

Television sets

Washing machines

Refrigerators (up to 12 cubic feet)

New models of passenger cars and light duty vehicles

Promote Low-Carbon FutureAchieve 10.0 Percent Energy Savings by 2030

Promote Low-Carbon Future30% of Public Utility Vehicles on Alternative Fuels by 2030

Promote use of clean and alternative fuels 20% biofuels blending by 2030 Expand number of compressed natural gas (CNG) and

auto-LPG vehicles Massively deploy electric vehicles (EV)

Support expansion of mass transport system

Type 2011 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030

Number of Vehicles

CNG

Bus 61 1,000 5,000 6,900 9,200 15,000

Taxi 100 1,000 6,000 16,000

Auto-LPG

19,052 20,200 20,500 21,700 23,200 23,000

E-trikes 630 50,170 80,730 106,000 150,000 230,000

Biofuel Blending

Ethanol 10% 10% 10% 20% 20% 20%

CME 2% 5% 5% 10% 20% 20%

Promote Low-Carbon Future30% of Public Utility Vehicles on Alternative Fuels by 2030

(Biodiesel)

Note: Total Supply requirement of Biodiesel is equal to the total diesel to be displaced

Year

Diesel DemandBiodiesel Blend (Target)

Supply Requirement/Fuel

Displacement

(In Million Liters)

(In KTOE)

(In Million Liters)

(In KTOE)

2011 6,724 5,697 2% 134 114

2015 7,645 6,477 5% 382 324

2020 9,056 7,672 10% 906 767

2025 10,348 8,768 20% 2,070 1,754

2030 11,428 9,683 20% 2,286 1,937

Promote Low-Carbon Future30% of Public Utility Vehicles on Alternative Fuels by 2030

(Bioethanol)

Note: Total supply requirement of bioethanol is equal to total gasoline to be displaced

Year

Gasoline DemandBioetha

nol Blend

(Target)

Supply Requirement/Fuel

Displacement

(In Million Liters)

(In KTOE)

(In Million Liters)

(In KTOE)

2011 4,181 3,274 10% 418 327

2015 5,350 4,189 10% 535 419

2020 7,955 6,229 20% 1,591 1,246

2025 10,322 8,083 20% 2,064 1,617

2030 12,589 9,858 20% 2,518 1,972

Promote Low-Carbon Future30% of Public Utility Vehicles on Alternative Fuels by 2030

Promote Low-Carbon FutureUse of Natural Gas in All Sector

19

Mindanao Critical Infrastructure Projects

Pipeline Projects Target Year27.4 k.m. Pipeline System for Cagayan de Oro and PHIVIDEC Area 2014-2016

2x2 k.m. Distribution Pipeline in Iligan City 2014-2016

Note: Said Targets are still subject for review based on current socio-economic conditions.

Floating Storage & Regasification Unit (FSRU) Target Year

FSRU Facility in Macajalar Bay, Misamis Oriental 2014-2016

Storage Facility Target YearSatellite Supply Terminal (2 Storage Tanks each with 120 cu.m.) in South Iligan 2014-2016

Satellite Supply Terminal (1 Storage Tanks with 120 cu.m.) in North Iligan 2014-2016

Refilling Station Target Year

Liquefied Compressed Natural Gas (LCNG) Refueling Stations in Iligan City, CDO and PHIVIDEC Areas

2016-2017

Promote Low-Carbon FutureUse of Natural Gas in All Sector

20

Refilling Stations Target YearLiquefied Compressed Natural Gas (LCNG) Refueling Stations in General Santos and Davao

2016-2018

Note: Said Targets are still subject for review based on current socio-economic conditions.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Terminals Target Year

3 Satellite LNG Terminals in Davao via General Santos TBD

Pipeline Projects Target Year

53 k.m. Pipeline in General Santos 2016-2018

Mindanao Critical Infrastructure Projects

Promote Low-Carbon FutureUse of Natural Gas in All Sector

Climate Proof the Energy SectorPromote a climate change resilient energy sector

Implement the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) in the energy sector Mitigation action mainly through energy efficiency,

renewable energy and alternative fuels and technology programs

Conduct vulnerability assessment of the energy sector Identify and pursue adaptation programs

Upgrade standards for energy systems and facilities

Critical Drivers and Factors to Consider

• Sustained high economic

growth target • Re-entry of the

manufacturing sector• Infrastructure programs i.e.

roads, bridges, ports, etc.• Expanded RE and fuel mix• Climate change impacts• Mindanao-Visayas

interconnection• Full household electrification

by 2017

Mindanao Power Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030with Indicative Projects for 2013-2014

23

Critical Periods

2014 – initial relief period due to committed and indicative capacities

2018 – next critical period with committed capacity only

2020 - if with committed and indicative capacities

Additional capacity requirement will be more than calculated due to presence of suppressed demand

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Existing Capacity Existing +Committed Capacity

Plus Indicative Peak Demand @ 4.76 GR + RM

Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM

Notesa. Demand curve represents total of peak demand and required Regulating Reserve (RM)

i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).b. 4.76% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand as submitted by the

utilities to DOE.c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand

for electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR) for 2012.

d. Power demand in the island remains restrained. Grew by 1.84 % in 2012.

Interim Mindanao Electricity Market(iMEM)

Interim Mindanao Electricity Market DesignGoal:

Provide an immediate venue for transparent and efficient utilization of additional capacities to address current Mindanao energy supply shortfall

Participants•Generators

(Grid, Embedded, Firm, Non-Firm)

•Customers With Self Gen Capability (DUs)

•Demand-Side (VLC)

Pricing• Bid-based with Bid Cap

Scheduling• Day-Ahead Nomination• Real-time imbalance

correction

Financial Settlement•Uniform

Pricing (Market Clearing Price)

Interim Mindanao Electricity Market

- Price Determination Methodology and Cost Recovery Filing

- Engagement of Consultants

- Market Rules Drafting- Public Consultation- DC Issuance

-DC Issuance-MF Filing for utilization of savings

Policy and Budget Approval• Consultation• Promulgation

Market Rules Development• Consultation• Market Rules Promulgation

Regulatory Approvals• Rates• Cost Recovery

Market Development• Training and System Trial• Infra & System Development

Stakeholder Engagement

IMEM

*As presented during the public consultations

6 MonthsDC ISSUANCE:

9 JAN 2013LAUNCH DATE:

26 APR 20145 Months

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A 2013 2014

ERC

Filin

g fo

r PD

M a

nd C

RM

DATE FILED:21 JAN 2013

15 months starting from the Issuance of DC

Establishment Timeline

DEPARTMENTOF ENERGY

A Look Into the Mindanao Energy Plan

2012-2030

Dir. Jesus T. TamangCagayan de OroFebruary 22, 2013