ED 039 326 AUTHOR INSTITUTION SPONS AGENCY PUB DATE NOTE AVAILABLE FROM EDRS PRICE DESCRIPTORS IDENTIFIERS ABSTRACT DOCUMENT RESUME VT 010 561 Troutman, Frank B.; And Others Evaluation of Arkansas Vocational Training Programs in Relation to Economic Development, Part I-Occupational Needs and Employment Projections. Industrial Research and Extension Center Publication No. L-6. Arkansas Univ. , Little Rock. Industrial Research and Extension Center.; Upjohn (W.E.) Inst. for Employment Research, Washington, D.C. Arkansas State Dept. of Education, Little Rock. Apr 69 42p. Industrial Research and Extension Center, College of Business Administration, University of Arkansas, Little sock, Arkansas 72005 EDRS Price MF-$0.25 HC Not Available from EDRS. *Economic Development, *Employment Projections, *Labor Supply, *Manpower Needs, *Program Evaluation, Statistical Data, Tables (Data) Arkansas To assist educators and employers in manpower planning and development, this study attempted to provide a useful and comprehensive picture of the number and kinds of occupational skills needed in Arkansas in the next decade. The study estimated future manpower needs by applying a target year industry-occupational matrix to industry employment projections and aggregating the results. A technique for ascertaining critical skill shortages based on employment service data on unfilled job openings was used to determine short-range training requirements. Basic assumptions of the study were that the State must continue to experience a small net immigration until 1975 and an unemployment rate no higher than 4.0 percent. A recent study by the Industrial Research and Extension Center showed that 149,000 persons could benefit from some form of training or education. Tables with information about unfilled openings, employment projections, and employment estimates by major occupational groups are included in the report. A survey of vocational school performance and an evaluation of programs and recommendations are available as VT 010 562 and VT 010 560. [Not available in hard copy due to marginal legibility of original document. ] (BC)
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ED 039 326
AUTHOR
INSTITUTION
SPONS AGENCYPUB DATENOTEAVAILABLE FROM
EDRS PRICEDESCRIPTORS
IDENTIFIERS
ABSTRACT
DOCUMENT RESUME
VT 010 561
Troutman, Frank B.; And OthersEvaluation of Arkansas Vocational Training Programsin Relation to Economic Development, PartI-Occupational Needs and Employment Projections.Industrial Research and Extension Center PublicationNo. L-6.Arkansas Univ. , Little Rock. Industrial Research andExtension Center.; Upjohn (W.E.) Inst. forEmployment Research, Washington, D.C.Arkansas State Dept. of Education, Little Rock.Apr 6942p.Industrial Research and Extension Center, College ofBusiness Administration, University of Arkansas,Little sock, Arkansas 72005
EDRS Price MF-$0.25 HC Not Available from EDRS.*Economic Development, *Employment Projections,*Labor Supply, *Manpower Needs, *Program Evaluation,Statistical Data, Tables (Data)Arkansas
To assist educators and employers in manpowerplanning and development, this study attempted to provide a usefuland comprehensive picture of the number and kinds of occupationalskills needed in Arkansas in the next decade. The study estimatedfuture manpower needs by applying a target year industry-occupationalmatrix to industry employment projections and aggregating theresults. A technique for ascertaining critical skill shortages basedon employment service data on unfilled job openings was used todetermine short-range training requirements. Basic assumptions of thestudy were that the State must continue to experience a small netimmigration until 1975 and an unemployment rate no higher than 4.0percent. A recent study by the Industrial Research and ExtensionCenter showed that 149,000 persons could benefit from some form oftraining or education. Tables with information about unfilledopenings, employment projections, and employment estimates by majoroccupational groups are included in the report. A survey ofvocational school performance and an evaluation of programs andrecommendations are available as VT 010 562 and VT 010 560. [Notavailable in hard copy due to marginal legibility of originaldocument. ] (BC)
EVALUATION OF
ARKANSAS VOCATIONAL TRAINING PROGRAMSIN RELATION TO
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
PART I: OCCUPATIONAL NEEDS AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
Prepared for the
ARKANSAS STATE DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
By the
Industrial Research and Extension CenterCollege of Business Administration
University of Arkansas
and the
W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
This study vas financed by the U. S.
Department of Health, Education andWelfare, Office of Education, under
the Manpower Development and Train-
ing Act of 1962 as amended, through
a grant to the Arkansas State Depart-
ment of Education, State Board forveti Dial ti
Industrial Research and Extension CenterPublication No.
EVALUATION OF ARKANSAS VOCATIONAL TRAINING PROGRAMS INRELATION TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
April, 1969
PART I - OCCUPATIONAL NEEDS AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
Prepared by the
Industrial Research and Extension CenterCollege of Business Administration
University of ArkansasLittle Rock
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH. EDUCATION& WELFARE
OFFICE OF EDUCATIONMIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REPRODUCEDEXACTLY AS RECEIVED FROM THE PERSON ORORGANIZATION ORIGINATING IT. POINTS OFVIEW OR OPINIONS STATED DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT OFFICIAL OFFICE OF EDUCAPON POSITION OR POLICY
Frank H. Troutmanand
E. Earl Wright
Assisted by:
Sarah G. BreshearsKenneth D. JonesJane A. Newbery
FOREWORD
This is the first report on a three-part study of Arkansas' vocational training needs as theyrelate to the State's economic development problems. It was undertaken as a result of widespreadrecognition, by both public officials and private business leaders, that a more carefully plannedstrategy for vocational education efforts is necessary if economic growth in Arkansas is to reachits maximum potential.
The results of this study are presented in three reports:
Part I Occupational Needs and Employment Projections
Part II Survey of Vocational Schools' Performance
Part Ill Evaluation of Programs and Recommendations
Special acknowledgement is made to all members of the State and Regional Manpower Advi-sory Councils, which were organized early in the conduct of this study, for their cooperation, as-sistance, and enthusiasm throughout the year long project.
The work was carried on in close cooperation with the Arkansas State Department of Educa-tion and the State's Employment Security Division; and received the benefit of much valuable as-sistance from numerous staff members of both agencies. Credit is also due to many other indivi-duals for the advice and encouragement which they provided.
Barton A. Westerlund, DirectorIndustrial Research and Extension Center
ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
P. age
INTRODUCTION 1
MANPOWER NEEDS FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 2
MANPOWER SUPPLY FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 12
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS BY INDUSTRY 14
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS BY OCCUPATION 20
PROJECTION METHODS 35
LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
I Arkansas Critical Manpower Requirements 4
U Professional, Technical, and Managerial Occupations Unfilled Openings Informa-tion, Little Rock-North Little Rock 6
Di Clerical and Sales Occupations Unfilled Openings Information, Little Rock-NorthLittle Rock 7
ITT Service Occupations Unfilled Openings Information, Little Rock-North Little Rock 9
V Processing, Machine Trades, Bench Work, Structural and Miscellaneous Occupa-tions Unfilled Openings Information, Little Rock-North Little Rock 10
vi Arkansas Employment Projections, By Industry to 1980 15
VII Arkansas Employment Projections, By Industry to 1980 16
viii Arkansas Regional Employment Projections, By Economic Development Districts,to 1980 19
IX Arkansas Employment Estimates and Manpower Needs, By Major OccupationalGroups, 1965 and 1975 With Employment Extended to 1980 23
X-A Arkansas Employment Estimates, By Major Occupational Groups, By Major In-dustry Categories, 1960 24
X-B Arkansas Employment Estimates, By Major Occupational Groups, By Major In-dustry Categories, 1965 25
X-C Arkansas Employment Estimates, By Major Occupational Groups, By Major In-dustry Categories, 1970 26
X-D Arkansas Employment Estimates, By Major Occupational Groups, By Major In-dustry Categories, 1975 27
X-E Arkansas Employment Estimates, By Major Occupational Groups, By 1`,Ictjor In-dustry Categories, 1980 28
XI Arkansas Employment Estimates and Manpower Needs, By Economic Develop-ment Districts, By Major Occupational Groups, 1965 and 1975--With EmploymentExtended to 1980 30
xi" Arkansas Employment Estimates and Manpower Needs, By Detailed Occupationallistings, 1965 and 1975 - With Employment Extended to 1980 31
iv
OCCUPATIONAL NEEDS AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
INTRODUCTION
Economic progress and industrial growth arc dedendent upon the properly balanced use and
development of natural resources, capital goods, technology, human resources, and the econom-
ic organization to mesh all of these together. Any im:n.lance in the utilization of these resources,
such as large numbers of unemployed or inideremploied people- -the current situation in Arkansas- -
both inhibits growth and constitutes a .:ostly economic bt,rden. Unless Arkansas can provide the
kinds of workers in the numbers needed by employers, it will be unable to compete effectively for
new industries or even retain many of thost. now operating in the State.
Therefore, for Arkansas to effectively cmtinue its drive for economic equality with the rest
of the Nation it must have a work force both broaily educated as citizens, and highly trained as
workers in order for them to understand and adjust to technological change. The people must face
up to the need for making changes, both in their occupation and in the place they work; for, as is
so well stated in Tomorrow's Manpower Needs:1
"In a rapidly changing economy, affected by revolutionary technologicalinnovations, the occupational composition of the work force, as well as theskills required in each occupation_ are bound to change radically over theyears."
Due to these rapid changes in technology, present manpower requirements of industry are an
uncertain guide to future, needs. To plan education and training programs to meet tomorrow's man-
power needs, planners must have projections of tomorrow's manpower requirements. Such pro-
jections should also prove useful in the vocational guidance of young people and the structurally un-
employed. To the extent that education, training and vocational guidance accurately reflect man-
power requiremer j, imbalances between manpower needs and labor supply can be reduced; the
productivity, and thus the earning power of workers enhanced; and structural unemployment mini-
mized.
This study is an attempt to provide a useful and comprehensive picture of the number and
kinds of occupational skills needed by employers in Arkansas now and for the next decade. Its pur-
pose is to assist educators and others charged with manpower development in Arkansas, to use all
available educational and training funds and facilities more effectively.
lUnited States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Tomorrow's Manpower
Needs, preliminary draft, 1968, p.
MANPOWER NEEDS FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Many questions are being raised and evaluations made of the State's training goals and the
techniques for determining these goals. It is quite apparent that occupational job market informa-
tion sources should be extended and improved if vocational educators are to be provided with the
data which will enable them to plan the kind of vocational training which contributes directly to the
economic development of Arkansas.
The orientation of occupational education to the State's economic development is an approach
which implies that emphasis should be placed on the needs of basic industries (primarily manufac-
turing), in contrast to training for other types of industry, such as trade and services. If this goal
is actively pursued, Arkansas' occupational training program can be a major contributant to the in-
dustrial and economic development of the State.
Present Methods of Determining Needs
The Vocational Education Act of 1963 assigned to the U. S. Employment Service and its af-
filiated state employment services the responsibility of providing job market information to voca-
tional education school authorities. The purpose of the employment service's program is to insure
that persons are provided training in occupations that will provide the best opportunities for their
continued employment. To date, the area skill survey approach has been primarily relied upon to
accomplish this goal in Arkansas.
In addition, each of the State's area vocational-technical schools has established advisory
committees composed of business and industry leaders to review and evaluate its training programs.
Recommended Methods of Determining Needs
Although the efforts of the employment service and the school advisory committees have been
useful, more extensive and more reliable sources of occupational job market information need to be
developed. Arkansas, with limited public financing, cannot afford all types of useful programs,
however desirable this might be. Instead, educational funds must be spent strategically; that is,
programs must be emphasized that will yield the greatest benefit per dollar spent. This does not
mean that training pr-.grams should be oriented solely to the needs of the basic industries; certain-
ly, training needs of other business enterprises should also be recognized. In addition, some con-
sideration has to be given to the training preferences and job choices of students. The approach
does imply, however, that priorities of training be established that will yield the biggest payoff in
terms of job creation and in accelerating the State's economic development. Inherent in this impli-
cation is the premise that training dollars should be concentrated more heavily on skills needed in
manufacturing than on those needed by other industries.
This orientation of vocational-technical education to the economic development of the State re-
quires more comprehensive and more reliable labor market information than is now available. In-
dustry growth patterns and critical skill needs must be ascertained and compared with the available
labor supply in order to determine the priorities of training that will be most effective in satisfying
thoseneeds, and in accelerating economic development in the State.
Manpower Forecasting
One method of estimating future manpower reauirements and training needs is to apply a tar-
get year industry-occupational matrix to industry employment projections, and aggregate the re-
sults. These results, when combined with estimates of replacement needs, can be utilized to deter-
mine critical occupational shortages.
Utilization of this technique identified the occupational clusters shown in Table I, on the fol-
lowing page, as critical in terms of training needed to provide skilled manpower to meet Arkansas'
expanding employment.
The training time requirements for these occupational clusters range from a six to 12 month
post-high school training period to two years for an associate degree program. Only those occupa-
tions for which training is or could be available in the State's area vocational-technical schools,
technical institute or community colleges are shown in Table I. Similarinformation on occupations
for which four or more years of college training is required is included in Table XII, page 31.
Not included in the critical shortages are a number of occupations with relatively large ex-
pansion and replacement needs, but which are low paying, involve poor working conditions, or for
which only limited training is required. Many of these are in the service sector; such occupations
as private household workers, practical nurses, waiters, cooks and bartenders.
Unfilled Job Openings Technique
Projections of employment by industry and occupation are most useful in establishing rela-
tively long-range training priorities. Since manpower needs are constantly changing with changing
technology and industry structure, other means should be used for determination of more imme-
diate needs. The identification of short-range training requirements can best be accomplished on
TABLE I
ARKANSAS CRITICAL MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS
Occupation
1965-1975Total
RequirementsAnnual
Average
Total 66,176 6,617Technical and kindred workers 5,644 565
Chemical technicians 225 23Dietitians and nutritionists 122 12Draftsmen 448 4FMedical and dental technicians 1,461 146Nurses, diploma and A.A. degree 2,309 231
Clerical and kindred workers 15, 023 1, 503Stenographers, typists and secretaries 8,859 886CANT machine operators 1,417 142Accounting clerks and bookkeepers 4,747 475
Cr..ftsmen and kindred workers 18,310 1,829Construction craftsmen 11,695 1,169Carpenters 4,683 468Brickmasons, stone and tile setters 638 64Electricians 1,117 112Excavating and grading machine operators 2,569 257Painters and paper hangers 1,326 132Plumbers and pipefitters 1,362 136
Operatives and kindred workers 27,199 2 720Assemblers, metalworking class A and B 1,983 198Bus, truck, and tractor drivers 18,136 1,814Inspectors, metalworking class B 1,002 100Machine tool operators class B 983 99Sewers and stitchers manufacturing 3,087 309Welders and flame cutters 2,003 200
Source: Derived from Table XII.
-4-
a recurrent basis by the application of a technique for ascertaining critical skill shortages which isbased on employment service data on unfilled job openings, known as ES-240 data. 2
Unfilled job openings data, if properly recorded and reported by each of the Arkansas Employ-
ment Service area offices, can provide an excellent index of employer needs, Such data can be used
toletermine critical shortage occupations caused by a lack of qualified applicants, and to show the
nsity of those shortages. Not all unfilled openings are due to a lack of qualified applicants, how-eve, . Some shortages, particularly those of many of the State's trade and service industries, are
caused by low wage rates and/or poor working conditions.
Information based on unfilled job opening surveys can be useful to vocational educators in
planeing curricula for the immediate future and in establishing training priorities. The techniquemay also have long-range applications if the shortages are found to persist over long periods and ifthey are of sufficient intensity.
Utilization of this methodin Arkansas is currently limited because only the Little Rock-North
little Rock and West Memphis areas are collecting and recording the data. Despite the data limita-
tions, application of the "Medvin Approach" in this study did succeed in identifying a number of oc-cupations which can be classified as being in critical shortage because of the lack of qualified appli-
cants--at least in the Little Rock-North Little Rock area. However, examination of job cancellationdata in local offices not reporting ES-240 information, interviews with employment service counsel-
ors, and interviews with employers throughout the State, revealed a very similar pattern of occupa-tional shortages elsewhere.
A total of 15 professional, technical, and managerial occupations was identified as being short-age occupations. It should be noted that most of these require substantial educational preparation,usually at the college, junior college, or technical institute level. All of them were due to a lack ofqualified applicants. in addition, on the national level, all except one are growing rapidly. (See
Table IL )
A total of 21 shortage occupations were identified in the clerical and sales category (see Ta-ble III). While the majority of them are rapid growth occupations, a number were classified asshortages because of low wages and method of pay, rather than a lack of qualified applicants.
2The method referred to is the "Medvin Approach." Mr. Norman Medvin, of the U. S. Em-ployment Service, developed and tested the technique. His article entitled "Occupational Job Re-quirements: A Short-Cut Approach to Lang-:;.a.nge Forecasting," published in the January-February1967 issue of the Employment Service Review, describes the methodology.
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ied
appl
ican
tsSa
lesm
an a
nd s
ales
pers
on,
com
mod
ities
, n. e
. c.
Sale
sman
--dr
iver
289
292
11-1
51-
530
-50 34
mod
erat
era
pid
Lac
k of
qua
lifie
d ap
plic
ants
and
met
hod
of p
ayL
ack
of q
ualif
ied
appl
ican
tsan
d m
etho
d of
jay_
1, 2
, 3 -
See
foo
tnot
es a
t end
of
Tab
le H
.
Only eight shortage occupations were identified in the service category (see Table IV). With-
out exception, the shortages were due to low wages, unstable work, or unfavorable working condi-
tions. Although a majority of the service occupations are in the rapid growth category nationally,
training for them should not receive high priority in light of the training goals presented earlier inthis report.
In the processing, machine trades, bench work, structural and miscellaneous occupations, atotal of 26 shortage categories were identified (see Table V). All of them were due to a lack of quali-
fied applicants. In Arkansas, these occupations will likely constitute major growth opportunities, al-
though the majority of them are forecast to grow only moderately nationally.
Procedures. As noted earlier, the primary source of information used to illustrate the unfilledjob openings approach was ES-240 data collected by the Arkansas Employment Security Division tESD).
Quarterly reports of unfilled job openings by three-digit DOT (Dictionary of Occupational Titles) occu-
pations were used for four quarters in 1967 and the first quarter of 1968. In addition to the ES-V.40
data, supplemental sources included job cancellation information and employer interviews. The oc-cupational outlook information for 1975 was taken from the Occupational Outlook Handbook, 1966-1967
editi '-n, and from the Bureau of Labor Statistics occupational-industry matrix presented in Tomorrow's
Manpower Needs, cited elsewhere in this study.
The specific procedures used in the analysis:
(1) Tabulations were made from ES-240 quarterly reports for the last day ofthe months of February, May, August, and November 1967, and February1968.
(2) The data tabulated included the number of unfilled openings at the end ofeach quarter, the number unfilled for one month or more, and the per-centage of openings on file for 30 days or more ("hard-to-fill" openings).
The unfilled openings tabulations were reviewed to develop a list of occu-pations indicating shortages over a period of time. The major problem inthe development of the list of shortage occupations was to make judgmentswhen the number of openings was very small. It was assumed if the localoffice could not fill its openings because of the unavailability of workers,regardless of volume, that there was a shortage.
(3)
(4) A few occupations were added to the preliminary list on the basis if em-ployer interview and job cancellation data.
Continuing shortages were defined as the number of openings by size group-ing that were on hand unfilled at the end of each quarter. It represents thecontinuing need for workers.
(6) Percent intensity of shortages was calculated as the proximate proportionof hard-to-fill jobs to total openings, by occupational grouping.
(5)
-8-
TA
BL
E I
V
SER
VIC
E O
CC
UPA
TIO
NS
UN
FIL
LE
D O
PEN
ING
S IN
FOR
MA
TIO
N, L
ITT
LE
RO
CK
-NO
RT
HL
ITT
LE
RO
CK
Occ
upat
ions
DO
TC
ode
Con
tinui
ngSh
orta
ges1
Perc
ent
Inte
nsity
of S
hort
age2
Em
ploy
men
tFo
reca
stin
197
53C
omm
ents
Day
wor
ker
301
1-5
30ra
pid
Low
pay
and
uns
tabl
e w
ork
Hou
seke
eper
303
1-5
30-4
0ra
pid
Low
pay
and
uns
tabl
e w
ork
Mai
ds, d
omes
tic30
611
-15
31-7
5ra
pid
Low
pay
and
uns
tabl
e w
ork
Nur
sem
aids
307
6-10
34-6
7ra
pid
Low
pay
and
uns
tabl
e w
ork
Nur
se's
Aid
e--O
rder
ly35
51-
530
-50
rapi
dL
ack
of q
ualif
ied
appl
ican
tsan
d lo
w p
ayL
aund
erin
g36
11-
550
-100
mod
erat
eL
ow p
ay a
nd u
nfav
orab
lew
orki
ng c
ondi
tions
Port
er38
11-
530
-50
rapi
dL
ow p
ayJa
nito
r38
21-
530
-50
rapi
dL
ow p
ay a
nd u
nfav
orab
lew
orki
ng c
ondi
tions
1, 2
, and
3 -
See
foo
tnot
es a
t end
of
Tab
le I
I.
TABLE V
PROCESSING, MACHINE TRADES, BENCH WORK, STRUCTURAL AND MISCELLANEOUS OCCUPATIONSUNFILLED OPENINGS INFORMATION, LITTLE ROCK-NORTH LITTLE ROCK
OccupationsDOTCode
Percent EmploymentContinuing Intensity ForecastShortages1 of Shortages2 Li 19753 Comments
Processing
Mixing, compounding, blending, kneading,shaping and related
Coating, calendering, laminating andfinishing
Wood preserving and related
Machine Trades
Machinists and relatedAbrading operationsTurning operationsMotorized vehicle equipment repairmenEngine, power transmissions, and related
mechanicsBusiness and commercial machine repairmenUtilities service mechanics and repairmenMiscellaneous machine installationPrinting press
Bench Work
Metal unit assemblersTelevision repairWinding and assembling coilsAssembly and repair of electrical
equipmentSewing machine operator
" Structural Work
Sheet metal workerAssembly and installation of transmission
linesAssembly of household appliances
VW Plumbers, pipe fitters, etc.Floor laying and finishing
Lack of qualified applicantsLack of qualified applicantsLack of qualified applicants
Lack of qualified applicantsLack of qualified applicants
Lack of qualified applicants
Lack of qualified applicantsLack of qualified applicantsLack of qualified applicantsLack of qualified applicantsLack of qualified applicants
Lack of qualified applicantsLack of qualified applicantsLack of qualified applicants
1, 2, and 3 (See footnotes at end of Table II. )
-10-
(7) Employment Forecast to 1975 is based on the national forecast of growthby occupation in the Occupational Outlook Handbook. This refers to growthrates and not replacements. A "rapid" increase implies a gain of 25 per-cent or more, "moderate" implies a 15 to 24 percent increase and "slow"refers to a 5 to 14 percent increase.
Limitations. The major limitation for Statewide use of the unfilled job openings method is the
lack of sufficient ES-240 data from each of the Arkansas ESD area offices. Data limitations alsoexist in certain occupational clusters when the number of openings is very small. These problemsmay be lessened to some extent by supplementing the ES-240 statistics with information gatheredfrom job cancellation tabulations and employer interviews. Another limiting factor is that the un-filled openings data are reported by three-digit DOT occupations. Six-digit reporting would increasethe usefulness of the information for school curriculum planning purposes.
Nevertheless, it is felt that the illustrative analysis presented for the Little Rock-North LittleRock area does accomplish two goals: First, the potential usefulness of the "Medvin Approach" in
determining shortage occupations to be used in establishing training priorities is clearly shown.
Second, the study identifies a number of shortage occupations where training is presently needed.
Recommendations. For the full potential of this technique to be realized, the following recom-mendations are made: First, that the Arkansas Employment Service require all area offices to col-lect and record complete ES-240 data. Second, that the data, whenever possible, be reported on the
six-digit DOT level. Third, that the employment service offices actively solicit job-openings infor-mation from employers. Finally, that the ESD publish a quarterly report of selected occupationalshortages, and annually publish a comprehensive report utilizing this approach. If implemented,
these recommendations should result in the ESD being able to better fulfill its role as a vital sourceof occupational needs information for the State's educational and training institutions and agencies.
MANPOWER SUPPLY FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
For the employment projections in this study to be realized, the State must continue to ex-
perience a small net in-migration of people between now and 1975, and the assumed overall unem-
ployment rate of 4.0 must be attained. In addition, both male and female labor force participation
rates in Arkansas must rise to near the 1967 national average. The average rate for the total popu-
lation 16 years of age and Over will have to increase from the State's 1960 level of 49 percent to more
than 56 percent by 1975.
Recent labor surplus studies, by the Industrial Research and Extension Center, show that about
149,000 persons (31,000 unemployed and 118,000 underemployed) could benefit from some form of
training that would upgrade or update their skills and/or education, while some 111,000 (the non-
participants) are in need of job opportunities in their area, and corresponding skill training or re-
medial education. At the same time, in many areas of the State, substantial numbers of jobs are
unfilled due to a lack of skilled workers.
It is only in recent years that recognition has been accorded the primacy of people in economic
planning and development. In the past, planners concerned with "industrial deli elopme_A"have tended
to place most of their emphasis on the utilization of othertypes of resources. Development of human
resources was thought of as taking place in the normal chain of events accompanying industrial de-
velopment. We now know that this does not necessarily occur without carefully designed education
and training programs. People are Arkansas' most important resource--i. e. , people who are in-
dustrious, have the ability to initiate change and to adapt to changing conditions. The ability to ini-
tiate change and to adapt to new situations is determined largely by the education and training of the
individual. Therefore, in order for Arkansas to retain and develop its needed work force, it is es-
sential that some agency engage in large-scale vocational and technical training activities. This not
only requires expansion of facilities and programs for needed skill training, but remedial education
as well. However, of equal importance must be a heavy commitment of effort to trainee recruitment,
especially among the disadvantaged, and to job placement services for those completing their train-
ing. The problem is that there are too few qualified job-seekers. This is compounded by undesir-
able levels of unemployment and low work-force participation rates. Furthermore, serious under-
employment and underparticipation is widespread throughout the State.
It would appear that the most logical agency in which to place the responsibilities described
above would be the State Department of Education and its vocational and technical school system.
Area schools are already established or are in the planning stage; they have an appropriate program
orientation; and they should be able to make needed changes in their curricula and methods of op-
eration. Expansion and changes in these existing facilities would be less costly, and should have
more long-term stability than the establishment of some new vocational education system.
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS BY INDUSTRY
The industry employment statistics that appear in this study are presented in two somewhat
different forms, each of which is related to a different series of employment data. Differences in
coverage between these series must be understood for the reader to properly evaluate the informa-
tion given.
State Projections
The current and projected State employment data shown in Table VI relate to labor force esti-
mates prepared by the Arkansas Employment Security Division. The industry data shown represent
the number of jobs in the economy and show only wage and salary workers. Excluded from these in-
dustry data, but presented as a separate category of workers, are the self-employed, unpaid family
workers and domestics in households. Also, the data on government employment covers all civilian
employment in government, regardless of service function. The ESD data are available in greater
industry detail and for more past years than any other annual employment series and are, therefore,
the best available statistics on which to base projections.
In Table VII, on the other hand, the data relate to census of population statistics, and the in-
dustry sections cover all workers, including wage and salary employees, self-employed, unpaid
family workers and domestics. In addition, the data for government employment cover only those
workers in public administration, i.e. , the workers engaged in activities that are uniquely govern-
mental in nature. Government employment in functions other than public administration is classi-
fied in the appropriate industrial classification -e. g.. , government education workers are incl, ded
in educational services, government hospital workers are included in health services, and govern-
ment construction workers are included in the construction industry.
This dual presentation of what is essentially the same information is required by the fact that
the only available industry-occupational matrix is based on census statistics. At the same time,
the ESD estimates z,re the best available continuous industry data, and are the series labor analysts
are most familiar with. The way in which the projections of employment by industry reflect the chang-
ing industrial mix in Arkansas is shown in Figure 1 on page 17.
When new "benchmarks" become available from the 1970 Census of Population, revised esti-
mates for 1970 and new projections for 1975 and 1980 should be prepared.
TABLE VII
ARKANSAS EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, BY INDUSTRY TO 1980
(Bureau of the Census Concept)
Labor Force andIndustry Division
Labor Force and Employment1960 1965 1370 1975 1980
This section presents information on Arkansas' employment trends and projections by occupa-
tion. The information is given in three parts:
(1) State employment estimates by major occupational groups, and by ma-jor occupational groups distributed by major industry categories.
(2) Employment estimates for the State's eight Economic Development Dis-tricts by major occupational groups.
(3) State employment estimates by detailed occupational listings.
Changing Occupational Structure
Significant changes have occurred and can be expected to continue in the occupational structure
of Arkansas' labor force. Certainly the most drastic change since 1950 has been the decline of farm-
er and farm worker employment--between 1950 and 1965 employment in these occupationsdeclined by
nearly 75 percent, from more than 210.5 thousand to less than 60.1 thousand. 3 Because farmers and
farm workers made up nearly 35 percent of total employment in 1950, the rapid decline in these occu-
pations caused a decline in total employment that was not reversed until 1958; in fact, total employ-
ment in Arkansas did not regain its 1950 level until 1964.
The employment of nonfarm laborers also declined substantially between 1950 and 1965, drop-
ping from 52.8 thousand to 40.3 thousand, a decrease of nearly 24 percent. However, total employ-
ment of blue-collar workers, craftsmen, foremen, and kindred workers, operatives and kindred
workers, and nonfarm laborers grew quite rapidly. Employment in these occupations rose by nearly
44 percent, increasing from approximately 169.9 thousand to nearly 243.8 thousand. At the same
time, employment in the white-collar worker group (professional, technical, and kindred workers;
managers, officials, and proprietors; clerical and kindred workers; and sales workers), and in the
service worker category grew even more rapidly. Between 1950 and 1965, white-collar employ-
ment increased by about one-half from 160.2 thousand to 236.3 thousand, with especially rapid
growth occurring in the professional and clerical fields. Employment of service workers rose even
faster, increasing by more than 91 percent for a gain of 42.0 thousand jobs.
3The 1965 employment of farmers and farm workers was slightly less than total employmentin the agriculture industry shown in Tables VI and VII because "agriculture" includes, in additionto the occupation "farmers and farm workers," a number of people in other occupations, e.g. , pro-fessional workers such as veterinarians and clerical workers on large commercial farms (see Ta-ble X-A).
As illustrated by Figure 3 on the following page, these dramatic changes have resulted in an
oceuiational employment structure for Arkansas that is more similar to the Nation's. The State is
mo%ing toward the national pattern in the managerial, clerical, craftsmen, service and farm cate-
gories: but there still exists notable differences from the national distribution for the professional
and technical, sales, operative and laborer occupations.
Although many factors influence the occupational structure of the workforce, the two most im-
potant ones for Arkansas are: (1) the different rates of employment growth among industries, as
the State changes from a predominantly agricultural to a more diversified economy, and (2) the chang-
ing occupational patterns within separate industries, as the State builds a more diverse, complex,
and sophisticated industrial structure.
These and other factors were taken into account in developing the occupational projections for
this report.
State Projections by Major Occupational Groups
Table IX presents the employment estimates by major occupational groups for 1965 and 1975,
with extensions to 1980. Also shown are both the expansion and replacement needs over the period
1965-1975, and the total annual average growth and replacement necessary to reach the projected 1975
totals. Estimates of the occupational replacement needs were made because the total requirement
for training new workers will exceed the differences between the projected employment figures for
1975 and those recorded for 1965. This is due to the number of workers employed in 1965 who will
leave the labor force or die by 1975.
The major occupational groups, distributed by major industry categories for 1960, 1965, 197C,
and 1975, with extensions to 1980, are shown in Tables X-A through X-E.4 These tables show clearly,
by industry, the continually occurring changes in occupational structure. The unrounded data in these
tables re presented for convenience, and are not intended to indicate accuracy.
These projections of occupational requirements indicate an increase of nearly 29 percent for
white-collar workers between 1965 and 1975. Among white-collar occupations, the most rapid in-
crease will be for professional and technical workers, and for clerical workers, both of which are
expected to grow much more rapidly (34 and 33 percent, respectively) than the average for all work-
ers (22 percent). The need for sales workers, and managers and officials should rise about 26 and
22 percent, respectively.
4As was noted for the industry employment projections, revisions of these occupational em-ploymmt projections should be prepared shortly after the 1970 Census of Population becomes avail-able, so that related planning efforts may be as realistic and accurate as possible.
-21-
FIG
UR
E 3
PER
CE
NT
DIS
TR
IBU
TIO
N O
F A
RK
AN
SAS
EM
PLO
YM
EN
T,
BY
MA
JOR
OC
CU
PAT
ION
AL
GR
OU
PS19
60 A
ND
PR
OJE
CT
ED
197
0 A
ND
198
0
WH
ITE
CO
LL
AR
WO
RK
ER
S(P
rofe
ssio
nal a
nd te
chni
cal;
man
ager
s,of
fici
als
and
pro-
prie
tors
; cle
rica
l; an
d sa
les
wor
kers
)
BL
UE
CO
LL
AR
WO
RK
ER
S(C
raft
smen
and
for
emen
;op
erat
ives
; and
labo
rers
)
SER
VIC
E W
OR
KE
RS
FAR
ME
RS
AN
D F
AR
M W
OR
KE
RS
......
...11
0.O
raw
......
......
....
'4%
,.....
.
......
......
......
....
......
ram
...°O
ra
...ra
lMO
..11.
1.
Perc
ent
100
35.5
rage
...
,,....
.
38.6
°mow
... ..
.Era
....
......
......
O...
......
40.6
_
so 60 40 20
0
.1.1
1110
MO
IO
35.9
40.3
40.
40.8
13.6
14.0
raw
Oft.
......
...ra
.O
MB
,
14.1
......
..rai
ral
15.0
......
...
7.1
4.5
1960
1970
1980
Sour
ce: D
eriv
ed f
rom
Tab
les
X-A
, X-C
and
X-E
.
TA
BL
E I
X
AR
KA
NSA
S E
MPL
OY
ME
NT
EST
IMA
TE
S A
ND
MA
NPO
WE
R N
EE
DS,
BY
MA
JOR
OC
CU
PAT
ION
AL
GR
OU
PS, 1
965
AN
D 1
975
WIT
H E
MPL
OY
ME
NT
EX
TE
ND
ED
TO
198
0
Occ
upat
ion
Em
ploy
men
tM
anpo
wer
Nee
ds, 1
965-
1975
Em
ploy
men
tE
xten
ded
to 1
980
1965
1975
Rep
lace
-E
xpan
sion
men
tT
otal
Ann
ulA
vera
geN
umbe
rPe
rcen
tN
umbe
rPe
rcen
tN
umbe
rPe
rcen
t
Prof
essi
onal
and
tech
nica
lw
orke
rs61
,780
9.8
82,7
710.
820
,991
15,4
4536
,436
3,64
495
,12E
11.3
Man
ager
s, o
ffic
ials
and
prop
riet
ors
62,0
639.
975
,486
9.8
13,4
2315
,516
28,9
392,
894
81,9
899.
7
tD WC
leri
cal w
orke
rs66
,746
10.6
88,9
3411
.622
,188
16,6
8738
,875
3,88
710
0,89
912
.0
Sale
s w
orke
rs45
,807
7.3
57,5
417.
511
,734
11,4
5223
,186
2,31
963
,558
7.6
Cra
ftsm
en a
nd f
orem
en80
,641
12.8
103,
131
13.4
22,4
9020
,160
42,6
504,
265
113,
344
13.5
Ope
rativ
es12
2,85
719
.616
7,52
321
.844
,666
30,7
1475
,;380
7,53
818
8,49
622
.4
Lab
orer
s, e
xcep
t far
m40
,098
6.4
42,8
185.
62,
720
10,0
2412
,744
1,27
441
,554
4.9
Serv
ice
wor
kers
88,1
4814
.010
7,59
114
.019
,443
22,0
3741
,480
4,14
811
8,57
114
.1
Farm
ers
and
farm
wor
kers
60,0
609.
642
,505
5.5
-17,
555
15,0
15-2
,540
-254
38,1
614.
5
Tot
al e
mpl
oym
ent
628,
200
100.
076
8,30
010
0.0
140,
100
157,
050
297,
150
29,7
1584
1,70
010
0.0
Not
e: P
erce
nts
may
not
sum
to 1
00.0
due
to r
ound
ing.
TA
BL
E X
-A
AR
KA
NSA
S E
MPL
OY
ME
NT
EST
IMA
TE
S, B
Y M
AJO
R O
CC
UPA
TIO
NA
L G
RO
UPS
, BY
MA
JOR
IN
DU
STR
Y C
AT
EG
OR
IES,
J96
0
Occ
upat
ion
Tot
alA
gri-
cultu
reM
anuf
ac-
turi
ngM
inin
g
Con
trac
tC
onst
ruc-
tion
Tra
nspo
r-ta
tion,
Com
mun
i-ca
tions
&U
tiliti
es
Tra
de
Fina
nce
Serv
ices
Publ
icA
dm ti
lls-
trat
ion
Who
le-
sale
Ret
ail
Prof
essi
onal
and
tech
nica
lw
orke
rs50
,092
932
3,03
236
41,
232
1,24
620
81,
108
33?
38,9
572,
676
Man
ager
s, o
ffic
ials
and
prop
riet
ors
53,5
471,
152
5,90
542
32,
819
2,81
04,
377
22,1
213,
743
6,70
43,
493
Cle
rica
l wor
kers
54,4
4660
77,
288
376
1,03
06,
969
3,20
87,
697
6,37
810
,709
10,1
84Sa
les
wor
kers
39,0
4473
3,94
916
8820
74,
391
25,0
384,
486
764
32C
raft
smen
and
for
emen
65,1
251,
064
16,0
071,
496
19,9
477,
578
1,32
36,
917
294
9,34
31,
156
Ope
rativ
es98
,840
1,84
153
,998
3,02
53,
794
11,5
994,
484
10,7
9855
8,65
059
6L
abor
ers,
exc
ept f
arm
35,1
49-
17,7
29-
5,77
23,
538
1,36
22,
590
288
3,31
655
41 L.:, 0a.
Serv
ice
wor
kers
Farm
ers
and
farm
wor
kers
75,3
7983
,278
253
83,2
781,
942 -
110 -
148 -
633 -
187 -
13,1
11-
759 -
54,9
07-
3,32
9 -T
otal
em
ploy
men
t55
4,90
089
,200
109,
850
5,81
034
,830
34,5
8019
,540
89,3
8016
,340
133,
350
22,0
20
Perc
ent D
istr
ibut
ion
Prof
essi
onal
and
tech
nica
lw
orke
rs9.
01.
02.
86.
33.
53.
61.
11.
22.
129
.212
.2M
anag
ers,
off
icia
ls a
ndpr
opri
etor
s9.
71.
35.
47.
38.
18.
122
.424
.722
.95.
015
.9C
leri
cal w
orke
rs9.
80.
76.
66.
53.
020
.216
.48.
639
.08.
046
.2Sa
les
wor
kers
7.0
0.1
3.6
0.3
0.2
0.6
22.5
28.0
27.5
0.6
0.2
Cra
ftsm
en a
nd f
orem
en11
.71.
214
.625
.857
.321
.96.
87.
71.
87.
05.
3O
pera
tives
17.8
2.1
49.2
52.1
10.9
33.5
23.0
12.1
0.3
6.5
2.7
Lab
orer
s, e
xcep
t far
m6.
3-
16.1
-16
.610
.27.
02.
91.
82.
52.
5Se
rvic
e w
orke
rs13
.60.
31.
81.
90.
41.
81.
014
.74.
641
.215
.1Fa
rmer
s an
d fa
rm w
orke
rs15
.093
.4-
--
-T
otal
em
ploy
men
t10
0.0
100.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
Not
e: P
erce
nts
may
not
sum
to 1
00.0
due
to r
ound
ing.
7111
11r.
W.1
111W
--11
1111
-11.
11r-
ing-
-11P
INIF
-111
1111
11-I
pur
-mum
-
TA
BL
E X
-B
AR
KA
NSA
S E
MPL
OY
ME
NT
EST
IMA
TE
S, B
Y M
AJO
R O
CC
UPA
TIO
NA
L G
RO
UPS
, BY
MA
JOR
IN
DU
STR
Y C
AT
EG
OR
IES,
1965
Occ
upat
ion
Tot
alA
gri-
cultu
reM
anuf
ac-
turi
ngM
inin
g
Con
trac
tC
onst
ruc-
tion
Tra
nspo
r-ta
tion,
Cor
nmun
i-ca
tions
&U
tiliti
es
Tra
de
Fina
nce
Serv
ices
Publ
icA
dm in
is-
trat
ion
Who
le-
sale
Ret
ail
Prof
essi
onal
and
tech
nica
lw
orke
rs61
,780
924
4,54
135
91,
768
1,44
929
01,
254
442
47,2
033,
550
Man
ager
s, o
ffic
ials
and
prop
riet
ors
62,0
6391
17,
759
362
3,90
63,
017
5,18
023
,693
5,07
97,
820
4,33
6C
leri
cal w
orke
rs66
,746
467
9,75
234
41,
468
7,36
13,
904
9,37
48,
213
13,9
5311
,910
Sale
s w
orke
rs45
,807
715,
334
1412
223
25,
201
28,2
265,
668
901
38
Cra
ftsm
en a
nd f
orem
en80
,641
998
21,3
611,
316
25,7
878,
244
1,82
68,
300
385
11,0
121,
412
b.,
Ope
rativ
es12
2,85
71,
472
71,5
532,
560
5,57
413
,160
5,41
512
,760
679,
628
668
en 1L
abor
ers,
exc
ept f
arm
40,0
98-
20,1
147,
128
3,59
51,
525
2,85
235
53,
930
599
Serv
ice
wor
kers
88,1
4819
72,
346
9519
764
220
915
,311
831
64,1
434.
177
Farm
ers
and
farm
wor
kers
60,0
6060
,060
--
--
--
Tot
al e
mpl
oym
ent
628,
200
65,1
0014
2,76
05,
050
45,9
5037
,700
23,5
5010
1,77
021
,040
158,
590
2%,. 6
90
Perc
ent D
istr
ibut
ioa
Prof
essi
onal
and
tech
nica
lw
orke
rs9.
81.
43.
27.
13.
93.
81.
21.
22.
129
.813
.3
Man
ager
s, o
ffic
ials
and
prop
riet
ors
9.9
1.4
5.4
7.2
8.5
8.0
22.0
23.3
24.1
4.9
16.2
Cle
rica
l wor
kers
10.6
0.7
6.8
6.8
3.2
19.5
16.6
9.2
39.0
8.8
44.6
Sale
s w
orke
rs7.
30.
13.
70.
30.
30.
622
.127
.726
.90.
60.
1C
raft
smen
and
for
emen
12.8
1.5
15.0
26.1
56.1
21.9
7.8
8.2
1.8
6.9
5.3
Ope
rativ
es19
.62.
350
.150
.712
.134
.923
.012
.50.
36.
12.
5L
abor
ers,
exc
ept f
arm
6.4
14.1
1.5.
59.
56.
52.
81.
72.
52.
2Se
rvic
e w
orke
rs14
.00.
31.
61.
90.
41.
70.
915
.04.
040
.415
.7Fa
rmer
s an
d fa
rm w
orke
rs9.
692
.3-
--
Tot
al e
mpl
oym
ent
100.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
160.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
100.
0
Not
e: P
erce
nts
may
not
sum
to 1
00.0
due
to r
ound
ing.
TA
BL
E X
-C
AR
KA
NSA
S E
MPL
OY
ME
NT
EST
IMA
TE
S, B
Y M
AJO
R O
CC
UPA
TIO
NA
L G
RO
UPS
, BY
MA
JOR
IN
DU
STR
Y C
AT
EG
OR
IES.
197
0
Occ
upat
ion
Tot
alA
gri-
cultu
reM
anuf
ac-
turi
ngM
inin
g
Con
trac
tC
onst
ruc-
tion
Tra
nspo
r-ta
tion,
Com
mun
i-ca
tions
&U
tiliti
es
Tra
de
Fina
nce
Serv
ices
Publ
icA
dmin
is-
trat
ion
Who
le-
sale
Ret
ail
Prof
essi
onal
and
tech
nica
lw
orke
rs72
,046
973
6,28
438
62,
145
1,62
735
81,
378
544
53.9
854,
366
Man
ager
s, o
ffic
ials
and
prop
riet
ors
68,7
1981
69,
648
343
4,59
53,
143
5,54
324
,548
6,45
18,
608
5.02
4C
leri
cal w
orke
rs77
,654
408
12,2
8534
91,
771
7,55
94,
296
11,0
409,
924
17,0
3312
,989
Sale
s w
orke
rs51
,407
746,
695
1414
225
15,
571
30,9
016,
717
1,00
141
Cra
ftsm
en a
nd f
orem
en92
,580
1,01
526
,986
1,28
528
,359
8,70
22,
243
9,65
047
112
,251
1,61
2O
pera
tives
146,
035
1,33
389
,538
2,40
26,
896
14,4
865,
915
14,6
2475
10,0
7269
41 tv c ) ,
Lab
orer
s, e
xcep
t far
mSe
rvic
e w
orke
rs42
,466
97,7
8517
321
,504
2,66
091
7,45
622
63,
521
631
1,53
520
93,
045
17,3
5441
182
74,
399
70,7
2559
54,
889
Farm
ers
and
farm
wor
kers
49,4
0849
,408
--
--
--
Tot
al e
mpl
oym
ent
698,
100
54,2
0017
5,60
04,
870
51,5
9039
,920
25,6
7011
2,54
025
,420
178,
080
30,2
10
Perc
ent D
istr
ibut
ion
Prof
essi
onal
and
tech
nica
lw
orke
rs10
.31.
83.
67.
94.
24.
11.
41.
22.
130
.314
.5M
anag
ers,
off
icia
ls a
ndpr
opri
etor
s9.
81.
55.
57.
08.
97.
921
.621
.825
.44.
816
.6C
leri
cal w
orke
rs11
.10.
87.
07.
23.
418
.916
.79.
839
.09.
643
.0Sa
les
wor
kers
7.4
0.1
3.8
0.3
0.3
0.6
21.7
27.5
26.4
0.6
0.1
Cra
ftsm
en a
nd f
orem
en13
.31.
915
.426
.455
.021
.88.
78.
61.
96.
95.
3O
pera
tives
20.9
2.5
51.0
49.3
13.4
36.3
23.0
13.0
0.3
5.7
2.3
Lab
orer
s, e
xcep
t far
m6.
1-
12.2
-14
.58.
86.
02.
71.
62.
52.
0Se
rvic
e w
orke
rs14
.00.
31.
51.
90.
41.
60.
815
.43.
339
.716
.2Fa
rmer
s an
d fa
rm w
orke
rs7.
191
.2-
--
-T
otal
em
ploy
men
t10
0.0
100.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
Not
e: P
erce
nts
may
not
sum
to 1
00.0
due
to r
ound
ing.
TA
BL
E X
-D
AR
KA
NSA
S E
MPL
OY
ME
NT
EST
IMA
TE
S, B
Y M
AJO
R O
CC
UPA
TIO
NA
LG
RO
UPS
, BY
MA
JOR
IN
DU
STR
Y C
AT
EG
OR
IES,
197
5
Occ
upat
ion
Tot
alA
gri-
cultu
reM
anuf
ac-
turi
ngM
inin
g
Tra
nspo
r-ta
tion
Con
trac
tC
omm
uni-
i'rad
e
Fina
nce
Serv
ices
Publ
icA
dmin
is-
trat
ion
Con
stru
c-ca
tions
&W
hole
-tio
nU
tiliti
essa
leR
etai
l
Prof
essi
onal
and
tech
nica
lw
orke
rs82
,771
1,02
58,
066
411
2,45
91,
803
452
1,52
964
461
,107
5,27
5M
anag
ers,
cIf
icia
ls a
ndpr
opri
etor
s75
,486
761
11,3
2132
55,
125
3,21
76,
154
25,5
857,
865
9,38
05,
753
Cle
rica
l wor
kers
88,9
3437
214
,550
352
2,01
97,
660
4,90
713
,093
11,5
3820
,455
13,9
88Sa
les
wor
kers
57,5
4177
7,84
614
158
271
6,19
034
,183
7,65
71,
101
44C
raft
smen
and
for
emen
103,
131
1,04
532
,157
1,25
229
,616
9,04
82,
823
11,3
1355
513
,504
1,81
8O
pera
tives
167,
523
1,25
510
5,62
92,
249
8,03
815
,569
6,70
416
,917
8110
,.174
707
Lab
orer
s, e
xcep
t far
m42
,818
-21
,310
-7,
370
3,36
01,
594
3,28
345
54,
8'r2
574
Serv
ice
wor
kers
107,
591
160
2,82
187
245
602
216
19,8
6775
577
,187
5,65
1:F
arm
ers
and
farm
wor
kers
42,5
0542
,505
--
--
--
Tot
al e
mpl
oym
ent
768,
300
47,2
0020
3,70
04,
690
55,0
3041
,530
29,0
4012
5,77
029
,550
197,
980
33,8
10
Perc
ent D
istr
ibut
ion
:?ro
fess
iona
l and
tech
nica
lw
orke
rs10
.82.
24.
08.
84.
54.
31.
61.
22.
230
.915
.6M
anag
ers,
off
icia
ls a
ndpr
opri
etor
s9.
81.
65.
66.
99.
37.
721
.220
.326
.64.
717
.0C
leri
cal w
orke
rs11
.60.
87.
17.
53.
718
.416
.910
.439
.010
.341
.4Sa
les
wor
kers
7.5
0.2
3.9
0.3
0.3
0.7
21.3
27.2
25.9
0.6
0.1
Cra
ftsm
en a
nd f
orem
en13
.42.
215
.826
.753
.821
.89.
79.
01.
96.
85.
4O
pera
tives
21.8
2.7
51.9
47.9
14.6
37.5
23.1
13.5
0.3
5.2
2.1
Lab
orer
s, e
xcep
t far
m5.
6-
10.5
-13
.48.
15.
52.
61.
52.
51.
7E
ervi
ce w
orke
rs14
.00.
31.
41.
90.
41.
50.
715
.82.
639
.016
.7Fa
rmer
s an
d fa
rm w
orke
rs5.
590
.1-
--
--
-_
_T
otal
em
ploy
men
t10
0.0
100.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
Not
e: P
erce
nts
may
not
sum
to 1
00.0
due
to r
ound
ing.
r,
''''''''
''"-1
1111
1111
1111
1111
r""-
-w
omm
inie
w
TA
BL
E X
-E
AR
KA
NSA
S E
MPL
OY
ME
NT
EST
IMA
TE
S, B
Y M
AJO
R O
CC
UPA
TIO
NA
LG
RO
UPS
, BY
MA
JOR
IN
DU
STR
Y C
AT
EG
OR
IES,
198
0
Occ
upat
ion
Tra
nspo
r-ta
tion,
Con
trac
tC
omm
uni-
Tra
dePu
blic
Agr
i-M
anuf
ac-
Con
stru
c-ca
tions
&W
hole
-A
dmin
is-
Tot
alcu
lture
turi
ngM
inin
gtio
nU
tiliti
essa
leR
etai
lFi
nanc
eSe
rvic
estr
atio
n
Prof
essi
onal
and
tech
nica
lw
orke
rs95
,128
1,09
29,
972
424
2,74
71,
979
559
1,68
074
769
,660
6,26
8M
anag
ers,
off
icia
ls a
ndpr
opri
etor
s81
,989
738
12,8
9830
05,
588
3,28
46,
754
26,2
489,
375
10,2
936,
511
Cle
rica
l wor
kers
100,
899
354
16,7
4834
62,
245
7,72
65,
541
15,3
1113
,144
24,6
1114
,873
Sale
s w
orke
rs63
,558
828,
977
1417
228
86,
801
37,4
088,
549
1,22
047
Cra
ftsm
en a
nd f
orem
en11
3,34
41,
095
37,1
621,
191
30,2
799,
392
3,47
813
,091
641
14,9
872,
028
Ope
rativ
es18
8,49
61,
225
121,
063
2,05
49,
109
16,7
037,
516
19,3
3984
10,6
9770
6L
abor
ers,
exc
ept f
arm
41,5
54-
19,6
94-
7,09
03,
186
1,62
23,
496
494
5,43
953
3Se
rvic
e w
orke
rs11
8,57
115
32,
886
8126
057
221
922
,487
626
84,8
336,
454
Farm
ers
and
farm
wor
kers
38,1
6138
,161
--
--
--
--
-T
otal
em
ploy
men
t84
1,70
042
,900
229,
400
4,41
057
,490
43,1
3032
,490
139,
060
33,6
5022
1,74
037
,420
Perc
ent D
istr
ibut
ion
Prof
essi
onal
and
tech
nica
lw
orke
rs11
.32.
54.
39.
64.
84.
61.
71.
22.
231
.416
.8M
anag
ers,
off
icia
ls a
ndpr
opri
etor
s9.
71.
75.
66.
89.
77.
620
.818
.927
.94.
617
.4C
leri
cal w
orke
rs12
.00.
87.
37.
93.
917
.917
.111
.039
.111
.139
.7Sa
les
wor
kers
7.6
0.2
3.9
0.3
0.3
0.7
20.9
26.9
25.4
0.6
C. 1
Cra
ftsm
en a
nd f
orem
en13
.52.
616
.227
.052
.721
.810
.79.
41.
96.
85.
4O
pera
tives
22.4
2.9
52.8
46.6
15.8
38.7
23.1
13.9
0.3
4.8
1.9
Lab
orer
s, e
xcep
t far
m4,
9-
8.6
-12
.37.
45.
02.
51.
92.
51.
4Se
rvic
e w
orke
rs14
.10.
41.
31.
80.
51.
30.
716
.21.
538
.317
.2Fa
rmer
s an
d fa
rm w
orke
rs4.
589
.0-
--
--
--
--
Tot
al e
mpl
oym
ent
100.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
100.
010
0.0
100.
0
Not
e: P
erce
nts
may
not
sum
to 1
00.P
due
to r
ound
ing.
Requirements for blue-collar workers are expected to rise by more than 28 percent between1965 and 1975. Among the blue-cear workers, the most rapid increase will be the operative clas-sification (36 percent),while the number of craftsmen will rise more slowly (28 percent). The de-mand for laborers is expected to increase less than seven percent.
The need for service workers is expected to rise by about 22 percent, and a continued decline,of about 29 percent, is anticipated for farmers and farm workers.
If these projected changes in the occupational structure of Arkansas actually take place, by1975:
(1) Around 40 percent of Arkansas' workers will be engaged in white-collaroccupations.
Almost 11 percent of the State's workers will be professional or technicalpersonnel.
(3) Another 13 percent will be skilled craftsmen or foremen.(4) Less than six percent of employment in the State will be farmers and
farm workers.
(2)
Regional Projections
Table XI presents the employment estimates by major occupational groups for the eight Eco-nomic Development Districts in Arkansas for 1965 and 1975, with extension to 1980. Also shownare both the expansion and replacement needs over the 1965-1975 period, and the total annual aver-age growth and replacement necessary to reach the projected 1975 levels.
As was true for the industry employment projections, forecasts of future occupational em-ployment within the State's eight economic regions become too unreliable for detailed treatment.Therefore, these projections are limited to major occupational groups. The tmrounded data in thistable are also used for :onvenience and do not imply the accuracy indicated.
State Projections by.Detailed Occupational Listings
Table XII presents the employment estimates for the State by detailed occupational listings for1965 and 1975, with extensions to 1980. As was done for the major occupational groups shown inTable IX, both the e.apailsion and replacement needed to reach the projected 1975 totals are given.Unrounded data are again used for convenience.
-29-
IA III I XI
ARKANSAS EMPLoYNI1 Ni EsTLMA71 AND MANPOWER NUM+ BY LitiNoMIC DEVELOPMENT DIST1UCTS.BY MAJoR oict prioNAL Guol Ps 1963 AND 197:,-WITII E3IPLOVMENT EXTENDED TO Itisto
While employment in the professional, technical and kindred workers occupational group isexpected to increase rapidly over the 1965-1975 decade, Arkansas will still not grow as fast as theNation in these occupations. The State is expected to be most deficient in the medical field; with
dentists, professional nurses, physicians and surgeons, medical and dental technicians and veter-inarians being especially short. Other marked shortage areas will be teachers and clergymen.
Over the decade, employment in all other occupational groups, except service workers, and
farmers and farm workers, is expected to increase more rapidly than the Nation. Especially high
growth should occur in the clerical, craftsmen, and operatives categories.
Employment of service workers will grow more slowly than national employment in these oc-
cupations, while employment in the farmer and farm worker category will decline more rapidly than
is true for the Nation. This should cause the State's employment in the service occupations to ap-
proximate the national pattern as a percent of total employment in 1975, and bring the State much
closer to the national mix (percent of total employment) in the farm occupations.
In reviewing the projected employment by detailed occupations, the reader must do more thansimply consider the raw data as present3d. For example, there is an immediate tendency to ques-tion the fact that student nurses are projected to decrease in number at the same time that the em-
ployment of professional nurses is projected to increase; this apparent incongruity is due to cLanges
in training methods. In the past, most professional nurses took their training at the hospital and
were listed as student nurses, whereas most students now planning a career in professional nurs-ing are enrolling in college degree programs or associate degree programs and are not counted aspart of the labor force.
Also, when comparing changes in the overall occupational structure by time periods it mustbe remembered that not only are the occupational needs within industries changing, but that the in-
dustry mix in the State is changing at the same time, 1.g. , relatively more metalworking, chemical
and plastics manufacturing than in the past.
PROJECTION METHODS
Employment by Industrl
The methodology employed by the Industrial Research and Extension Center in obtaining theprojections in Tables VI and VII was somewhat different from that used in most previous State pro-jections of this nature. The first step was to make descriptive computer runs for complete quarter-ly ESD data from 1950 through 1967, for all industries as well as for the work force, total manufac-turing (durables and nondurable s), total services, and other major nonmanufaeturingindustrial cate-gories. Linear trends were then plotted for all series to provide reference points in identifying breaksin the series. From these initial runs, points were selected from which to begin the various projec-tions.
The second step consisted of projecting the quarterly data from the selected beginning pointsby linear regression: Ye = A 4 BX; log linear: log Yc = log A + log BX; Gompertz: Yc = KA(BX);and Pearl-Reed: Yc = K[1 + E(A + BX)]. The projections were then plotted graphically.
From these results, the projection providing the "best fit" for each industry was selected andthe, total of all industries was then adjusted to work force and major industry category totals. Theresults of this operation were then compared to the national projections given in Tomorrow's Man-power Needs, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U. S. Department of Labor. ModifiLations were madeindustry by industry in view of the national trends, as well as past experiences in Arkansas andother developing states in the South, e.g. , the movement of declining industries such as textiles in-to the South
These data were then adjusted downward to fit independently projected population and workforce data for Arkansas, and became the first approximations for a forecast.
A careful review and further comparison with national trends was made at this point by theIREC staff members, and by the staff of the Reports and Analysis Section of the State EmploymentSecurity Division.
The final forecast was made in?.orporating adjustments developed from the reviews, but re-maining within the confines of projected labor force data. These final data are considered a bestestimate of the employmeht that can be expected in Arkansas in 1980.
The employment projections for Arkansas are based primarily on historical data, and assump-tions similar to those used for the national projections. Thus relatively comparability with nationaldata is achieved.
The general assumptions providing the parameters for the industry projections are:
(1) That general economic progress in both Arkansas and the Nation will con-tinue as in the recent past.
(2) Th:t the State will continue to exert strong efforts toward expanding anddiversifying its economy, with continued emphasis on manufacturing andnew emphasis on the leisure industry.
(3) That the State will continue to become more like the Nation in its indus-trial mix and structure.
(4) There will be a continuation of scientific and technological advances.
(5) That no major natural catastrophe, social upheaval, or war of signifi-cant intensity and duration will upset the State's long-term development.
Employment Projections by Occupation
The preparation of Arkansas' occupational projections was accomplished through use of the
national industry - occupational matrices published in Tomorrow's Manpower Needs, previously cited.
The method used was the BLS "Area Projection Method B" which required the development of an Ar-
kansas base period (1960) industry-occupational matrix.
After the development of the Arkansas base period matrix, a target year (1975) matrix was
then computed by applying the trends (1960-1975) projected for industry-occupational structures at
the national level to the corresponding industries in the State base period (1960) matrix. Initial 1975
State occupational employmeot estimates were then m4..le by. applying the 1975 State occupational-
industry matrix to projected State industry employment, and aggregating the results to obtain State
occupational totals. These were then reviewed and adjusted in cases where obviously unreasonable
results appeared.
The need to replace experienced workers who die, retire, or leave the labor force for other
reasons is an even more important determinant of worker requirements in some l; t:c u p ati o n s than
are expansion needs. Therefore, some estimate of these replacement needs had to be made. The
method used here is considered conservative; it was simply to assume a normal working life
of 40 years for all presently employed persons. Thus a 2.5 percent average annual replacement
rate was used. This assumption is considered valid for men, but few females actually work this
many years. In addition to retirements and deaths, females withdraw' from the work force as a re-
sult of marriage, child bearing, presence of young children in the home, etc. Therefore, some-
what higher female worker replacement needs should cause the total estimated replacement needs
shown in the tables to be conservative.
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Finally, since the projected expansion needs run only to 1975 for consistency with available
national occupational projections, the State's 1960-1975 trends were extended to 1980 in order toprovide planning information for the longer period.