Direction de la recherche, des études, de l’évaluation et des
statistiques
DREES
SÉRIE SOURCES ET MÉTHODE
DOCUMENT DE
TRAVAIL Projections du nombre de bénéficiaires
de l’APA en France à l’horizon 2040-2060 - Sources, méthode et
résultats
Aude LÉCROART
n° 23 – septembre 2011
MINISTÈRE DU TRAVAIL, DE L'EMPLOI ET DE LA SANTÉ MINISTÈRE DU
BUDGET, DES COMPTES PUBLICS ET DE LA RÉFORME DE L'ÉTAT
MINISTÈRE DES SOLIDARITÉS ET DE LA COHÉSION SOCIALE
Tab1
Tableau 1 - Structure par âge des deux populations (HS
et APA) au 1er janvier 2008
1/1/08effectifsrépartition en %
tranches d'âgeHSAPAHSAPA
60-64 ans73,48521,2955.80%2.00%
65-69 ans65,81944,8735.20%4.20%
70-74 ans117,89185,5649.30%8.00%
75-79 ans205,535162,38016.30%15.30%
80-84 ans258,823251,74320.50%23.60%
85 ans et +542,581498,90742.90%46.90%
total1,264,1341,064,762100%100%
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007.
DREES, INSEE, enquête Handicap-Santé 2008-2009, volets ménages
(HSM) et institutions (HSI).
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Graph1
Graphique 1 - Répartition par lieu de vie des deux
populations (HS et APA) au 1er janvier 2008
Répartition des PAD à domicile par tranche d'âgeRépartition des
PAD en établissement par tranche d'âge
tranches d'ageHS(M)APAtranches d'ageHS(I)APA
60-64 ans7.1%2.0%60-64 ans3.3%2.0%
65-69 ans6.4%5.0%65-69 ans2.8%3.0%
70-74 ans11.1%10.0%70-74 ans5.9%5.0%
75-79 ans18.9%18.0%75-79 ans11.0%11.0%
80-84 ans20.8%26.0%80-84 ans19.9%20.0%
85 ans et +35.8%39.0%85 ans et +57.1%59.0%
total100.0%100.0%total100.0%100.0%
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007.
DREES, INSEE, enquête Handicap-Santé 2008-2009, volets ménages
(HSM) et institutions (HSI).
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Tab3
Tableau 3 - Effectifs et proportions des bénéficiaires de l’APA
par tranche d’âge
Classes d'âge
60-64 ans65-69 ans70-74 ans75-79 ans80-84 ans85 ans et plus
1/1/0720,0360.70%41,9531.70%83,9073.40%161,8647.30%240,12714.10%459,86335.30%
1/1/0821,2950.60%44,8731.80%85,5643.50%162,3807.20%251,74314.70%498,90735.50%
1/1/0922,1310.60%39,9071.60%82,1693.40%157,6277.00%261,57515.00%543,16436.30%
1/1/1022,8480.60%41,2151.60%84,8913.50%162,8397.20%263,19414.90%567,41235.90%
Sources : INSEE, estimations de population au 1er janvier ;
DREES, Enquêtes sur les bénéficiaires de l’aide sociale
départementale (2009 – APA à domicile : 79 départements
répondants sur 96 ; APA en établissement : 40
départements répondants sur 96).
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Note de lecture : Parmi l’ensemble des personnes âgées de
80 à 84 ans résidant en France métropolitaine, 14,9 % bénéficient
de l’APA au 1er janvier 2010.
Graph2 à 4
Graphique 2 : Taux de bénéficiaires de l’APA observés au
1er janvier 2008 par âge et sexeGraphique 3 : Taux de
bénéficiaires de l’APA après lissage aux grands âges, par
sexeGraphique 4 : Taux initiaux de bénéficiaires de l’APA et
taux après lissage et calage, par sexe
taux APA initiauxtaux APA lisséstaux APA lissés - calés
âgehommesfemmeshommesfemmeshommesfemmes
600.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%
610.4%0.5%0.4%0.5%0.4%0.5%
620.6%0.7%0.6%0.7%0.6%0.7%
630.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%
640.8%1.0%0.8%1.0%0.8%1.0%
651.0%1.3%1.0%1.3%1.0%1.3%
661.4%1.7%1.4%1.7%1.4%1.7%
671.6%2.0%1.6%2.0%1.6%2.0%
682.0%2.3%2.0%2.3%2.0%2.3%
692.3%2.6%2.3%2.6%2.3%2.6%
702.4%3.1%2.4%3.1%2.4%3.1%
712.4%3.3%2.4%3.3%2.4%3.3%
722.8%3.9%2.8%3.9%2.8%3.9%
733.1%4.7%3.1%4.7%3.1%4.7%
743.8%5.2%3.8%5.2%3.8%5.2%
754.2%6.0%4.2%6.0%4.2%6.0%
764.2%6.6%4.2%6.6%4.2%6.6%
775.2%7.6%5.2%7.6%5.2%7.6%
785.7%9.0%5.7%9.0%5.7%9.0%
796.7%10.5%6.7%10.5%6.7%10.5%
807.6%12.1%7.6%12.1%7.6%11.6%
818.8%13.5%8.8%13.5%8.8%12.9%
829.9%16.0%9.9%16.2%9.8%15.5%
8311.7%18.4%11.7%19.6%11.7%18.7%
8413.0%20.7%13.3%23.1%13.2%22.1%
8514.9%23.1%16.7%26.8%16.5%26.7%
8620.5%31.6%20.1%30.6%19.9%30.5%
8723.9%35.0%23.6%34.5%23.3%34.4%
8827.5%40.5%27.1%38.5%26.8%38.4%
8929.6%44.2%30.6%42.5%30.2%42.4%
9033.5%47.3%34.1%46.6%33.7%46.5%
9135.4%52.1%37.6%50.7%37.1%50.5%
9240.1%55.9%41.0%54.7%40.5%54.6%
9345.9%57.5%44.4%58.7%43.8%58.5%
9447.7%62.2%47.7%62.6%47.1%62.4%
9551.3%66.2%50.9%66.4%50.3%66.2%
9650.4%71.2%54.1%70.1%53.4%69.9%
9762.2%72.0%57.1%73.6%56.4%73.3%
9866.5%75.6%60.0%76.9%59.2%76.6%
9973.9%77.8%62.7%80.0%61.9%79.7%
10060.1%82.6%65.3%82.8%64.5%82.6%
10150.5%88.0%67.8%85.4%66.9%85.1%
10274.5%95.9%70.0%87.7%69.1%87.4%
10361.3%86.1%72.0%89.6%71.1%89.4%
10485.4%79.2%73.9%91.2%72.9%91.0%
10519.9%94.0%75.4%92.5%74.5%92.2%
10625.8%69.7%76.8%93.3%75.8%93.0%
10723.1%40.4%77.9%93.7%76.9%93.4%
108+87.0%61.4%78.7%93.7%77.7%93.4%
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007 ;
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Graph5
Graphique 5 - Taux de bénéficiaires de l’APA
« initiaux » (hypothèse intermédiaire), hommes
âge201020202030204020502060
600.3%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%
610.4%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%
620.6%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.4%
630.8%0.7%0.7%0.6%0.6%0.5%
640.8%0.8%0.7%0.7%0.6%0.6%
651.0%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.7%0.7%
661.4%1.3%1.2%1.1%1.1%1.0%
671.6%1.5%1.4%1.3%1.2%1.1%
682.0%1.8%1.7%1.6%1.5%1.4%
692.3%2.1%1.9%1.8%1.7%1.6%
702.4%2.2%2.0%1.9%1.8%1.7%
712.4%2.2%2.1%1.9%1.8%1.7%
722.8%2.6%2.4%2.2%2.1%1.9%
733.1%2.8%2.6%2.4%2.3%2.2%
743.8%3.5%3.2%3.0%2.8%2.6%
754.2%3.9%3.6%3.3%3.1%2.9%
764.2%3.9%3.6%3.3%3.1%2.9%
775.2%4.8%4.4%4.1%3.9%3.6%
785.7%5.3%4.9%4.5%4.2%4.0%
796.7%6.2%5.7%5.3%5.0%4.7%
807.6%6.9%6.4%6.0%5.6%5.3%
818.8%8.1%7.4%6.9%6.5%6.1%
829.8%9.0%8.3%7.8%7.3%6.8%
8311.7%10.7%9.9%9.2%8.6%8.1%
8413.2%12.1%11.2%10.4%9.8%9.2%
8516.5%15.1%14.0%13.0%12.2%11.5%
8619.9%18.2%16.9%15.7%14.7%13.8%
8723.3%21.4%19.8%18.4%17.2%16.2%
8826.8%24.6%22.7%21.1%19.8%18.6%
8930.2%27.7%25.6%23.9%22.3%21.0%
9033.7%30.9%28.6%26.6%24.9%23.4%
9137.1%34.1%31.5%29.3%27.4%25.8%
9240.5%37.2%34.4%32.0%29.9%28.2%
9343.8%40.2%37.2%34.6%32.4%30.5%
9447.1%43.2%40.0%37.2%34.8%32.8%
9550.3%46.2%42.7%39.7%37.2%35.0%
9653.4%49.0%45.3%42.1%39.4%37.1%
9756.4%51.7%47.8%44.5%41.6%39.2%
9859.2%54.4%50.2%46.8%43.8%41.2%
9961.9%56.9%52.6%48.9%45.8%43.1%
10064.5%59.2%54.7%50.9%47.7%44.8%
10166.9%61.4%56.8%52.8%49.4%46.5%
10269.1%63.4%58.6%54.6%51.1%48.0%
10371.1%65.3%60.3%56.1%52.5%49.4%
10472.9%66.9%61.9%57.6%53.9%50.7%
10574.5%68.4%63.2%58.8%55.0%51.8%
10675.8%69.6%64.3%59.9%56.0%52.7%
10776.9%70.6%65.2%60.7%56.8%53.5%
108+77.7%71.3%65.9%61.3%57.4%54.0%
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007 ;
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Graph6
Graphique 6 - Taux de bénéficiaires de l’APA
« remontés » (hypothèse intermédiaire), hommes
âge201020202030204020502060
600.3%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%
610.4%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.1%
620.6%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.2%
630.8%0.7%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.3%
640.8%0.7%0.6%0.5%0.4%0.3%
651.0%0.8%0.7%0.6%0.5%0.4%
661.4%1.2%1.0%0.9%0.7%0.5%
671.6%1.4%1.2%1.0%0.8%0.6%
682.0%1.7%1.5%1.2%1.0%0.8%
692.3%1.9%1.7%1.4%1.2%1.0%
702.4%2.1%1.8%1.5%1.3%1.0%
712.4%2.1%1.8%1.6%1.3%1.1%
722.8%2.4%2.1%1.8%1.5%1.3%
733.1%2.7%2.4%2.0%1.8%1.5%
743.8%3.3%2.9%2.5%2.2%1.9%
754.2%3.7%3.3%2.9%2.5%2.2%
764.2%3.7%3.3%2.9%2.5%2.2%
775.2%4.6%4.1%3.6%3.2%2.8%
785.7%5.1%4.6%4.1%3.6%3.2%
796.7%6.0%5.4%4.8%4.3%3.8%
807.6%6.8%6.1%5.5%4.9%4.4%
818.8%7.9%7.2%6.5%5.8%5.3%
829.8%8.9%8.1%7.3%6.7%6.0%
8311.7%10.6%9.7%8.8%8.0%7.3%
8413.2%12.1%11.1%10.1%9.3%8.5%
8516.5%15.1%13.9%12.8%11.8%10.8%
8619.9%18.3%16.9%15.6%14.4%13.4%
8723.3%21.6%20.0%18.5%17.2%16.0%
8826.8%24.8%23.1%21.5%20.1%18.8%
8930.2%28.2%26.3%24.6%23.1%21.7%
9033.7%31.5%29.5%27.8%26.1%24.7%
9137.1%34.8%32.8%30.9%29.3%27.7%
9240.5%38.2%36.1%34.2%32.4%30.8%
9343.8%41.5%39.3%37.4%35.6%34.0%
9447.1%44.7%42.6%40.6%38.9%37.3%
9550.3%47.9%45.8%43.9%42.1%40.5%
9653.4%51.1%49.0%47.1%45.4%43.8%
9756.4%54.1%52.1%50.3%48.6%47.1%
9859.2%57.1%55.2%53.4%51.8%50.4%
9961.9%59.9%58.1%56.5%54.9%53.6%
10064.5%62.6%61.0%59.4%58.0%56.7%
10166.9%65.2%63.7%62.3%61.0%59.8%
10269.1%67.6%66.2%65.0%63.9%62.8%
10371.1%69.8%68.7%67.6%66.6%65.7%
10472.9%71.8%70.9%70.0%69.2%68.4%
10574.5%73.7%72.9%72.2%71.6%71.0%
10675.8%75.2%74.7%74.3%73.8%73.4%
10776.9%76.6%76.3%76.1%75.8%75.6%
108+77.7%77.7%77.6%77.6%77.6%77.5%
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007 ;
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Graph7-Tab4
Tableau 4 - Effectifs projetés de bénéficiaires de l'APA à
l’horizon 2060, tous les 5 ans
au 1er
janvier20102,01520202,02520302,03520402,04520502,0552060
scénario
bas1,142,3991,250,0061,317,7071,349,9111,399,6091,521,8741,674,3701,779,5721,826,9811,847,1021,848,928
scénario
intermédiaire1,142,3991,284,8191,390,3951,462,3841,557,5641,736,1921,947,7972,105,9162,200,1402,264,1812,304,796
scénario
haut1,142,3991,307,5671,439,2031,541,3371,673,7381,899,6862,161,2932,364,7402,504,1642,612,3282,695,168
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007.
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Tab5
Tableau 5 - Taux d’évolution annuel moyen des effectifs de
bénéficiaires de l'APA
PériodeHypothèse hauteHypothèse intermédiaireHypothèse basse
2010-20202.40%2.00%1.50%
2020-20301.50%1.10%0.60%
2030-20452.30%2.00%1.60%
2045-20600.90%0.60%0.30%
2010-20601.70%1.40%1.00%
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007 ;
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Graph8
Graphique 8 - Effectifs APA projetés à l’horizon 2040 selon
trois hypothèses, France entière
2010201520202025203020352040
scénario
bas1,165,8281,281,4111,354,4551,391,8651,447,0801,576,0861,736,249
scénario
intermédiaire1,165,8281,317,0991,429,1691,507,8341,610,3931,798,0382,019,781
scénario
haut1,165,8281,340,4181,479,3391,589,2411,730,5061,967,3562,241,167
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007,;
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France entière.
Graph9
Graphique 9 - Effectifs APA projetés à l’horizon 2060 selon
trois hypothèses, par sexe
20102015202020252030203520402045205020552060
scénario
bas1,139,6611,250,0061,317,7071,349,9111,399,6091,521,8741,674,3701,779,5721,826,9811,847,1021,848,832
hommes300,695330,187350,480365,572386,302424,646466,066488,258497,973504,829507,979
femmes838,966919,818967,227984,3391,013,3081,097,2271,208,3041,291,3131,329,0081,342,2731,340,853
scénario
intermédiaire1,139,6611,284,8191,390,3951,462,3841,557,5641,736,1921,947,7972,105,9162,200,1402,264,1812,304,796
hommes300,695341,576374,770403,886440,907498,712559,809599,603625,562648,665666,421
femmes838,966943,2431,015,6251,058,4981,116,6581,237,4801,387,9891,506,3121,574,5781,615,5171,638,375
scénario
haut1,139,6611,307,5671,439,2031,541,3371,673,7381,899,6862,161,2932,364,7402,504,1642,612,3282,695,168
hommes300,695348,789390,767430,634480,888555,637635,134691,744735,613776,882812,969
femmes838,966958,7781,048,4361,110,7031,192,8501,344,0491,526,1591,672,9971,768,5521,835,4461,882,199
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007.
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine01/09/2011.
Graph10-Tab6
Tableau 6 - Effectifs projetés de bénéficiaires de l'APA à
l’horizon 2060, tous les 5 ans, par groupe GIR
20102015202020252030203520402045205020552060
GIR 1+2 scénario
bas402,300449,600484,783503,097523,091569,558636,306694,023728,360749,017762,417
% GIR
1+235.3%36.0%36.8%37.3%37.4%37.4%38.0%39.0%39.9%40.6%41.2%
GIR 3+4 scénario
bas737,361800,406832,924846,814876,518952,3161,038,0641,085,5481,098,6211,098,0861,086,511
GIR 1+2 scénario
intermédiaire402,300449,600484,783503,097523,091569,558636,306694,023728,360749,017762,417
% GIR
1+235.3%35.0%34.9%34.4%33.6%32.8%32.7%33.0%33.1%33.1%33.1%
GIR 3+4 scénario
intermédiaire737,361835,219905,612959,2871,034,4731,166,6341,311,4911,411,8921,471,7791,515,1651,542,379
GIR 1+2 scénario
haut402,300449,600484,783503,097523,091569,558636,306694,023728,360749,017762,417
% GIR
1+235.3%34.4%33.7%32.6%31.3%30.0%29.4%29.3%29.1%28.7%28.3%
GIR 3+4 scénario
haut737,361857,967954,4201,038,2401,150,6471,330,1281,524,9871,670,7171,775,8041,863,3111,932,750
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA,
2006-200701/09/2011.
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Tab7
Tableau 7 - Indicateurs synthétiques d’espérances de vie, en
2060
Hypothèse hauteHypothèse intermédiaireHypothèse basse
HommesEV*23,6 ans
Gains EV 2010-2060+ 5,3 ans
EVSI*21,3 ans21,7 ans22,1 ans
EVSI / EV90%92%94%
Gains EVSI 2010-2060+ 4,5 ans+ 4,9 ans+ 5,3 ans
FemmesEV*27,6 ans
Gains EV 2010-2060+ 4,9 ans
EVSI*22,8 ans23,4 ans24,1 ans
EVSI / EV82%85%87%
Gains EVSI 2010-2060+ 3,5 ans+ 4,1 ans+ 4,9 ans
*EV : espérance de vie (à 65 ans) ; EVSI :
espérance de vie sans incapacité (à 65 ans).
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007 ;
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine01/09/2011
Graph11
Graphique 11 - Projections de personnes âgées dépendantes
CAS 2005 et actuelles, à l’horizon 2040, en milliers
d’individus
2010201520202025203020352040
CAS 2005 - hypothèse basse862914954994103711341231
CAS 2005 - hypothèse haute921100710771137123213831536
hypothèse basse1142125013181350140015221674
hypothèse intermédiaire1142128513901462155817361948
hypothèse haute1142130814391541167419002161
Sources : CAS ; DREES, remontée de données
individuelles anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA,
2006-2007 ; INSEE, projections de population 1999-2050 et
2007-2060.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Graph12
Graphique 12 - Projections de personnes âgées dépendantes
CAS 2005 et actuelles, à l’horizon 2040, en indices - base 100 en
2010
2010201520202025203020352040
CAS 2005 - hypothèse basse100106111115120132143
CAS 2005 - hypothèse haute100109117123134150167
hypothèse basse100110116118123134147
hypothèse intermédiaire100113122128137152171
hypothèse haute100117132144159184213
Sources : CAS ; DREES, remontée de données
individuelles anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA,
2006-2007 ; INSEE, projections de population 1999-2050 et
2007-2060.
Champ : France métropolitaine01/09/2011.
Tab8
Tableau 8 - Nombre d’hommes bénéficiaires de l’APA par
tranche d’âge, hypothèse basse
AGE révolu20102015202020252030203520402045205020552060
60-6410,4029,6798,2187,2336,1095,0773,6142,9412,1041,205690
65-6919,72824,47122,72919,43417,20014,55712,1208,6537,0254,9922,896
70-7431,27227,96035,33333,35929,25926,62623,22520,08115,18113,25510,639
75-7948,49343,19939,70051,81450,31045,60743,01339,09035,46628,38826,677
80-8465,31766,13661,19158,40579,47180,02575,53874,34370,66367,36056,849
85-8982,72586,38091,88689,25189,622128,464134,628133,260137,424136,830136,950
90-9428,56260,49967,36475,42577,44983,125126,353136,084142,081153,837159,770
95-9912,8369,95022,40226,69031,56434,36339,51763,74570,94878,24289,073
100-1041,2691,8301,5213,8334,9736,3057,3689,18315,88018,49921,714
105 et +91841361293434986908801,2012,2212,818
total300,695330,187350,480365,572386,302424,646466,066488,258497,973504,829508,075
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA,
2006-200701/09/2011.
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Tab9
Tableau 9 - Proportion d’hommes bénéficiaires de l’APA par
tranche d’âge, hypothèse basse
AGE révolu20102015202020252030203520402045205020552060
60-640.6%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%
65-691.6%1.4%1.3%1.1%0.9%0.8%0.6%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.2%
70-742.9%2.5%2.2%2.0%1.8%1.5%1.3%1.1%0.9%0.7%0.6%
75-795.2%4.7%4.2%3.7%3.4%3.1%2.7%2.4%2.1%1.9%1.6%
80-8410.0%9.2%8.5%7.7%7.1%6.6%6.1%5.6%5.1%4.7%4.2%
85-8922.4%20.9%19.7%18.5%17.1%16.0%15.5%14.5%13.6%12.9%12.2%
90-9438.4%37.0%35.1%33.6%32.1%30.4%29.1%28.3%27.1%26.0%25.1%
95-9953.9%51.7%50.5%48.8%47.5%46.1%44.5%43.4%42.6%41.5%40.5%
100-10466.9%65.2%63.7%63.0%61.8%60.9%60.0%59.0%58.2%57.7%57.0%
105 et
+75.9%75.0%74.5%73.9%73.8%73.5%73.3%73.0%72.7%72.5%72.5%
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007.
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Tab10
Tableau 10 - Nombre de femmes bénéficiaires de l’APA par tranche
d’âge, hypothèse basse
AGE révolu20102015202020252030203520402045205020552060
60-6412,46412,13410,6809,5518,2527,0745,2374,5593,5962,5681,686
65-6925,89032,48431,28827,70024,88121,50318,45213,74911,9699,4726,775
70-7453,54546,16558,94157,53351,91847,61842,11737,14728,71826,16022,071
75-79104,37089,17578,478102,221102,10794,32588,77680,80273,63359,14156,397
80-84176,722171,244150,249135,642181,578186,771177,507172,130161,826152,640127,215
85-89266,943267,375267,582243,249229,057319,199334,355329,007330,012319,951312,424
90-94114,585229,875241,543251,865239,434237,618346,799372,344381,737398,194399,505
95-9972,65154,556113,970126,939139,137139,644147,713227,473251,695270,804295,663
100-10411,03515,76112,86228,13033,53338,97041,67947,50277,64589,228101,518
105 et
+7611,0491,6351,5093,4114,5065,6706,6018,17714,11517,599
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007.
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Tab11
Tableau 11 - Proportion de femmes bénéficiaires de l’APA par
tranche d’âge, hypothèse basse
AGE révolu20102015202020252030203520402045205020552060
60-640.6%0.6%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%
65-691.9%1.7%1.6%1.4%1.2%1.0%0.9%0.7%0.6%0.5%0.3%
70-744.0%3.6%3.2%3.0%2.6%2.3%2.1%1.8%1.6%1.3%1.1%
75-797.9%7.3%6.6%5.9%5.6%5.1%4.6%4.2%3.8%3.4%3.0%
80-8415.9%14.9%13.9%12.7%11.7%11.2%10.4%9.7%9.0%8.4%7.7%
85-8933.8%31.9%30.3%28.7%26.8%25.3%24.4%23.1%21.8%20.8%19.8%
90-9452.7%51.0%48.8%47.0%45.2%43.1%41.4%40.3%38.8%37.4%36.3%
95-9971.0%68.6%67.1%65.3%63.7%62.1%60.2%58.7%57.8%56.5%55.2%
100-10485.1%83.6%82.0%81.1%79.8%78.8%77.7%76.5%75.6%75.0%74.1%
105 et
+92.8%92.2%91.8%91.3%91.0%90.7%90.4%90.2%89.8%89.5%89.5%
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007.
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Tab12
Tableau 12 - Nombre d’hommes bénéficiaires de l’APA par tranche
d’âge, hypothèse intermédiaire
AGE révolu20102015202020252030203520402045205020552060
60-6410,40210,2759,3298,8568,1767,5616,1525,9865,5154,7834,207
65-6919,72825,88825,57923,42922,44720,83419,38715,97315,60214,54112,694
70-7431,27229,36139,11539,03236,43335,52333,47731,73226,75326,66925,474
75-7948,49345,02543,21959,01260,03457,25957,01455,01753,28045,98846,969
80-8465,31768,43865,56564,82391,46695,41393,52695,80894,79494,37083,465
85-8982,72588,77997,02396,75099,783146,833157,621160,199169,450173,084177,770
90-9428,56261,78070,20380,11083,80191,600141,646154,946164,362180,784190,504
95-9912,83610,10023,05227,82033,29436,65342,61169,43277,88786,67299,478
100-1041,2691,8461,5473,9255,1266,5357,6779,62016,70319,52323,003
105 et +91841371303465036978911,2162,2512,856
total300,695341,576374,770403,886440,907498,712559,809599,603625,562648,665666,421
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007.
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Tab13
Tableau 13 - Proportion d’hommes bénéficiaires de l’APA par
tranche d’âge, hypothèse intermédiaire
AGE révolu20102015202020252030203520402045205020552060
60-640.6%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.2%
65-691.6%1.5%1.4%1.3%1.2%1.1%1.0%0.9%0.8%0.7%0.7%
70-742.9%2.7%2.5%2.4%2.2%2.0%1.9%1.7%1.6%1.5%1.4%
75-795.2%4.9%4.5%4.3%4.1%3.8%3.6%3.4%3.2%3.0%2.8%
80-8410.0%9.5%9.1%8.6%8.1%7.9%7.5%7.2%6.9%6.6%6.2%
85-8922.4%21.5%20.8%20.0%19.1%18.3%18.1%17.4%16.8%16.3%15.8%
90-9438.4%37.8%36.6%35.7%34.7%33.6%32.6%32.2%31.3%30.6%29.9%
95-9953.9%52.5%52.0%50.9%50.1%49.1%48.0%47.2%46.8%45.9%45.2%
100-10466.9%65.8%64.8%64.5%63.7%63.2%62.5%61.8%61.2%60.9%60.4%
105 et
+75.9%75.2%74.8%74.5%74.4%74.2%74.1%73.9%73.6%73.5%73.5%
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007.
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Tab14
Tableau 14 - Nombre de femmes bénéficiaires de l’APA par tranche
d’âge, hypothèse intermédiaire
AGE révolu20102015202020252030203520402045205020552060
60-6412,46412,75511,86411,28710,4559,7227,9317,7837,1576,3005,652
65-6925,89034,05434,52032,34530,93928,71926,79122,07221,69720,13017,771
70-7453,54548,09364,15165,57562,21760,29356,66553,54444,82844,75342,252
75-79104,37092,32584,251113,994118,321113,952112,123107,012102,69787,40688,732
80-84176,722176,232159,188148,072204,338216,529212,445212,937207,053202,437175,358
85-89266,943273,633280,146260,494250,953357,782382,815385,326395,350391,994391,738
90-94114,585233,976250,076265,056256,013258,183382,663416,511433,230458,376466,158
95-9972,65155,246116,742131,462145,581147,568157,645244,994273,111296,255326,030
100-10411,03515,87813,04528,69634,40440,18843,18949,46881,18793,587106,880
105 et
+7611,0521,6421,5183,4364,5435,7226,6668,26714,27817,803
total838,966943,2431,015,6251,058,4981,116,6581,237,4801,387,9891,506,3121,574,5781,615,5171,638,375
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007.
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Tab15
Tableau 15 - Proportion de femmes bénéficiaires de l’APA par
tranche d’âge, hypothèse intermédiaire
AGE révolu20102015202020252030203520402045205020552060
60-640.6%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.3%
65-691.9%1.8%1.7%1.6%1.5%1.4%1.3%1.2%1.1%1.0%0.9%
70-744.0%3.7%3.5%3.4%3.2%3.0%2.8%2.6%2.4%2.3%2.1%
75-797.9%7.5%7.0%6.6%6.5%6.1%5.8%5.5%5.3%5.0%4.7%
80-8415.9%15.4%14.7%13.9%13.2%13.0%12.5%12.0%11.6%11.1%10.6%
85-8933.8%32.7%31.7%30.7%29.4%28.3%27.9%27.0%26.2%25.5%24.8%
90-9452.7%51.9%50.6%49.5%48.3%46.8%45.6%45.1%44.1%43.1%42.3%
95-9971.0%69.5%68.8%67.6%66.6%65.6%64.2%63.2%62.7%61.8%60.9%
100-10485.1%84.2%83.2%82.7%81.9%81.3%80.5%79.7%79.0%78.6%78.0%
105 et
+92.8%92.4%92.1%91.8%91.6%91.4%91.3%91.1%90.8%90.6%90.5%
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007.
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Tab16
Tableau 16 - Nombre d’hommes bénéficiaires de l’APA par tranche
d’âge, hypothèse haute
AGE révolu20102015202020252030203520402045205020552060
60-6410,40211,15611,02011,42711,55611,75710,58311,42911,79011,53411,576
65-6919,72827,98529,91929,76231,03231,43832,08129,05731,38532,56231,835
70-7431,27231,43444,87848,02948,17550,56351,39452,57248,07152,01154,245
75-7948,49347,73048,58770,43575,96276,97381,50383,53686,14579,28286,384
80-8465,31771,85572,24275,017111,130121,475125,024134,295139,404145,568135,269
85-8982,72592,347104,878108,678116,460177,990197,950208,602228,823241,999257,464
90-9428,56263,69274,55587,58094,248106,010168,533188,945205,851232,227250,785
95-9912,83610,32424,05229,62836,14940,56248,07779,74190,911102,890120,056
100-1041,2691,8711,5884,0735,3806,9338,23010,42418,27821,53325,606
105 et +91851381313515127129121,2492,3182,944
total300,695358,478411,857464,760530,443624,213724,088799,513861,906921,925976,164
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007.
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Tab17
Tableau 17 - Proportion d’hommes bénéficiaires de l’APA par
tranche d’âge, hypothèse haute
AGE révolu20102015202020252030203520402045205020552060
60-640.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%
65-691.6%1.6%1.7%1.6%1.6%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%
70-742.9%2.9%2.8%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%
75-795.2%5.2%5.1%5.1%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%
80-8410.0%10.0%10.0%9.9%9.9%10.1%10.0%10.1%10.1%10.1%10.1%
85-8922.4%22.4%22.5%22.5%22.3%22.2%22.7%22.7%22.7%22.8%22.9%
90-9438.4%39.0%38.9%39.1%39.1%38.8%38.8%39.3%39.2%39.2%39.4%
95-9953.9%53.7%54.2%54.2%54.3%54.4%54.2%54.2%54.6%54.5%54.6%
100-10466.9%66.7%66.5%66.9%66.9%67.0%67.0%66.9%67.0%67.2%67.2%
105 et
+75.9%75.5%75.4%75.4%75.5%75.6%75.6%75.7%75.6%75.7%75.8%
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007.
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Tab18
Tableau 18 - Nombre de femmes bénéficiaires de l’APA par tranche
d’âge, hypothèse haute
AGE révolu20102015202020252030203520402045205020552060
60-6412,46413,70013,70614,05114,06414,16512,55613,43413,53513,11313,039
65-6925,89036,44139,54739,74240,86440,83241,11336,66939,12839,60038,259
70-7453,54551,02772,26078,39479,09881,58481,67382,32773,72278,75979,899
75-79104,37097,11593,242132,778144,922146,947152,294153,070154,895139,184149,145
80-84176,722183,820173,124167,935241,717266,609272,637284,758288,436293,866265,509
85-89266,943283,150299,763288,108286,975422,811466,461484,668513,235524,689540,730
90-94114,585240,212263,429286,248283,361292,927444,743494,695526,536569,787591,996
95-9972,65156,295121,097138,772156,262161,017174,930276,202312,221343,809383,883
100-10411,03516,05513,33629,62435,86442,27845,85053,02187,776101,913117,322
105 et
+7611,0551,6531,5333,4794,6115,8206,7978,45314,63618,263
total838,966978,8701,091,1571,177,1871,286,6061,473,7821,698,0781,885,6412,017,9382,119,3542,198,045
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007.
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Tab19
Tableau 19 - Proportion de femmes bénéficiaires de l’APA par
tranche d’âge, hypothèse haute
AGE révolu20102015202020252030203520402045205020552060
60-640.6%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%
65-691.9%1.9%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
70-744.0%4.0%3.9%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%
75-797.9%7.9%7.8%7.7%7.9%7.9%7.9%7.9%7.9%7.9%7.9%
80-8415.9%16.0%16.0%15.8%15.6%16.1%16.0%16.0%16.1%16.1%16.0%
85-8933.8%33.8%34.0%34.0%33.6%33.5%34.0%34.0%34.0%34.1%34.2%
90-9452.7%53.2%53.3%53.4%53.5%53.1%53.0%53.6%53.6%53.6%53.7%
95-9971.0%70.8%71.3%71.4%71.5%71.6%71.3%71.3%71.7%71.7%71.7%
100-10485.1%85.1%85.0%85.4%85.4%85.5%85.5%85.4%85.4%85.6%85.6%
105 et
+92.8%92.7%92.8%92.7%92.8%92.8%92.8%92.8%92.8%92.8%92.9%
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007.
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Graph13
Graphique 13 - Projections de bénéficiaires de l’APA, selon
trois hypothèses, avec deux variantes pour le scénario
intermédiaire
20102015202020252030203520402045205020552060
hypothèse
basse1,139,6611,250,0061,317,7071,349,9111,399,6091,521,8741,674,3701,779,5721,826,9811,847,1021,848,832
hypothèse
intermédiaire1,139,6611,284,8191,390,3951,462,3841,557,5641,736,1921,947,7972,105,9162,200,1402,264,1812,304,796
hypothèse
haute1,142,3991,307,5671,439,2031,541,3371,673,7381,899,6862,161,2932,364,7402,504,1642,612,3282,695,168
hypothèse intermédiaire - variante
basse1,139,6611,288,0971,388,7891,451,6041,537,1911,703,1281,890,9092,017,5422,083,4702,122,5342,139,701
hypothèse intermédiaire - variante
haute1,139,6611,281,0991,392,4301,474,6201,579,1201,766,3641,998,8102,194,1142,323,6382,416,8922,485,793
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007.
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
Tab20
Tableau 20 - Effectifs projetés de bénéficiaires de l’APA à
l’horizon 2060 par année, France métropolitaine
au 1er janvier20102,01120122,01320142,01520162,01720182,019
scénario
bas1,142,3991,163,0991,186,2871,208,9451,230,3161,250,0061,267,8871,283,7711,297,1801,308,325
scénario
intermédiaire1,142,3991,169,6661,199,6381,229,2871,257,8211,284,8191,310,1451,333,5661,354,5581,373,327
scénario
haut1,142,3991,173,8911,208,2641,242,4801,275,7271,307,5671,337,8881,366,4241,392,6211,416,701
au 1er janvier20202,02120222,02320242,02520262,02720282,029
scénario
bas1,317,7071,325,6001,332,5561,338,4471,344,0191,349,9111,356,5121,363,9641,373,1461,384,756
scénario
intermédiaire1,390,3951,406,0521,420,8641,434,6701,448,2801,462,3841,477,5071,493,6861,511,8861,532,870
scénario
haut1,439,2031,460,5341,481,1891,500,9901,520,7951,541,3371,563,2471,586,4841,612,0721,640,822
au 1er janvier20302,03120322,03320342,03520362,03720382,039
scénario
bas1,399,6091,417,2181,438,9451,464,0601,491,9791,521,8741,552,7571,584,0921,615,3341,645,641
scénario
intermédiaire1,557,5641,585,5791,618,2571,654,7581,694,3961,736,1921,779,2091,822,5951,865,7511,907,729
scénario
haut1,673,7381,710,4321,752,2861,798,3571,847,8611,899,6861,952,8882,006,4192,059,6392,111,528
au 1er janvier20402,04120422,04320442,04520462,04720482,049
scénario
bas1,674,3701,700,5841,724,3521,745,4821,763,8581,779,5721,792,4301,803,3181,812,4361,820,230
scénario
intermédiaire1,947,7971,985,3652,020,0842,051,7752,080,3412,105,9162,128,5452,149,0032,167,4632,184,413
scénario
haut2,161,2932,208,2702,252,1942,292,9182,330,3732,364,7402,396,3692,425,8702,453,3712,479,378
au 1er
janvier20502,05120522,05320542,05520562,05720582,0592060
scénario
bas1,826,9811,832,2311,836,8161,840,7521,844,1231,847,1021,848,8451,850,0851,850,6211,850,2771,848,928
scénario
intermédiaire2,200,1402,214,6942,228,3262,241,0442,252,9062,264,1812,274,3692,283,7332,292,0372,299,1002,304,796
scénario
haut2,504,1642,527,7042,550,2532,571,8022,592,3742,612,3282,631,2202,649,1802,665,9342,681,3072,695,168
Sources : DREES, remontée de données individuelles
anonymisées auprès des bénéficiaires de l’APA, 2006-2007.
INSEE, projections de population 2007-2060 ; calculs
DREES.
Champ : France métropolitaine.
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