Do not Predict “THE Future” Forecast “Alternative FutureS” Invent “Preferred Futures” Continuously.

How Futures Studies Can Improve Your Life & Work

Creating More Effective Futures-Oriented

Lives and Institutions

Jim Dator

Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies Department of Political Science

University of Hawaii <[email protected]>

<www.futures.hawaii.edu>

What Futures Studies is

and

is not

Futures Studies, Strategic Planning, and Administration

A futures perspective is different from but related to strategic planning

just as strategic planning is different from but related to administration.

Futurists can not

predict

THE Future

(No one can)

But futurists can and do

forecast

Alternative FuturesS

(and so should you)

Most importantly

futures studies helps you

invent

Preferred Futures

But to be effective

the process of forecasting and envisioning

must be done

continuously

and not be a

one-shot activity

Do not Predict “THE Future”

Forecast “Alternative FutureS”

Invent “Preferred Futures”

Continuously

THREE “COMPONENTS” OFTHE FUTURES

By "The Futures"

I here mean:

"The next 30-50 years"

3 “COMPONENTS” OF THE FUTURES

1. Continuations Things that have always existed Existed in pasts & present, so in futures

3 “COMPONENTS” OF THE FUTURES

1. Continuations Things that have always existed Existed in pasts & present, so in futures

2. Cycles Not in present, but in past, so in futures OR big in present, not past, not futures

THREE “COMPONENTS” OF THE FUTURES

1. Continuations Things that have always existed Existed in pasts & present, so in futures

2. Cycles Not in present, but in past, so in futures OR big in present, not past, not futures

3. Novelties Never before experienced by humans Not in past or present, will in futures

THREE “COMPONENTS” OF THE FUTURES

1. Continuations ??%

2. Cycles ??%

3. Novelties ??%

Total 100%

Three “Components” of the Futures (2)

THE WAY IT USED TO BE

Three “Components” of the Futures (2)

THE WAY IT USED TO BE

1. Continuations (80%)

Three “Components” of the Futures (2)

THE WAY IT USED TO BE

1. Continuations (80%)

2. Cycles (15%)

Three “Components” of the Futures (2)

THE WAY IT USED TO BE

1. Continuations (80%)

2. Cycles (15%)

3. Novelties (5%)

Three “Components” of the Futures (2)

THE WAY IT MAY BE

Three “Components” of the Futures (2)

THE WAY IT MAY BE

1. Continuations (5%)

2. Cycles (15%)

3. Novelties (80%)

Three “Components” of the Futures (2)

THE WAY IT MAY BE

1. Continuations (5%)

2. Cycles (15%)

3. Novelties (80%)

If a large part of "the futures" may be novel,

then there are several important implications we need to keep in mind:

1. While a main task of futures studies is to help individuals and institutions

envision and invent preferred futures, we must first understand

what the major continuing, cyclical and novel factors might be,

and how we can use their power and presence to create a world we prefer,

rather than the undesirable conditions that might occur without our envisioning and acting.

While we should strive to avoid "dystopia" --undesirable futures--

we should not irresponsibly envision "utopia"

--impossibly good and thus unobtainable futures.

Our task is to envision and create "eutopia"

--the best possible real world we can imagine given the challenges and opportunities available to us.

In other words,

we need to identify and strive "to surf the tsunamis of change"

rushing towards us from the futures.

If much of the futures may be novel, then there is a second implication

we need to understand:

ANY USEFUL IDEA ABOUT

THE FUTURES

SHOULD APPEAR TO BE

RIDICULOUS

Dator's "Second Law of the Futures"

Futures studies as an academic and as a consulting activity

is based on the identification and analysis of

images of the futures; theories of social stability and change;

methods of social forecasting and design; continuing trends; and

emerging issues:

Theory

Trends Images Events

Methods

Stages of Societal Evolution

Hunting and Gathering Agricultural

Industrial Information

So what's next??

Any statement about the futures

must be based on a

theory of social change

Society is shaped by:

Biology Environment

Culture (Especially language)

Technology Human Actions

When any of these change,

your behavior changes,

and so

your beliefs and values

change.

We live in a world today where new technologies are

invented, developed, produced and diffused daily.

Technology is the major agent of change

in our world.

The diffusion of current technologies and

the creation and diffusion of new technologies

changes behaviors which changes beliefs.

Marshall McLuhan

WE SHAPE OUR TOOLS

AND THEREAFTER

OUR TOOLS SHAPE US

One example of how technological change causes

social change:

(while any technology could be used, this is an example of change in

communication technologies).

Changing modes of communication enable

changes in the size and complexity

of organizations and of knowledge.

They allow increased control over space and over time.

Stages of social evolution and changes incommunication technologies

200,000 Pre-speech Homo Sapiens

35, 000 Speech Hunting & Gathering

5,000 Writing Agricultural

400 Printing Industrial

100 Electronics Information

Now ???? ????

WHAT’S NEXT??

?

Four Generic Alternative Futures

Continued Growth

Collapse

Disciplined Society

Transformational Society

WHAT’S NEXT?CONTINUED GROWTH?

WHAT’S NEXT?COLLAPSE?

WHAT’S NEXT?A DISCIPLINED SOCIETY?

WHAT’S NEXT?A TRANSFORMATIONAL SOCIETY?

Four Generic Alternative Futures

Continued Growth

Collapse

Disciplined Society

Transformational Society

So what’s next?

They are many possible futures

Here is one:

A Dream Society

of Icons and

Aesthetic experience

THE“ PLACE ”

INDUSTRIES

Construction, Architecture, Transportation

THE“ WORDS ”

INDUSTRIES

Government, Law, Business, Education

THE“ IMAGE ”

INDUSTRIES

Communications, Entertainment, Military, Space

WORDS PLACE

IMAGE

• Rolf Jensen, The Dream Society: The coming shift from information to imagination.

• Joseph Pine II and James H. Gilmore, The Experience Economy: Work is theatre and every business a stage.

• Daniel H. Pink, “The MFA is the new MBA,” Harvard Business Review.

• Daniel H. Pink, A whole new mind: Moving from the Information Age to the Conceptual Age.

• Virginia Postel, The substance of style: The rise of aesthetic value is remaking commerce, culture, and consciousness.

• Ernest Sternberg, The Economy of Icons: How business manufactures meaning.

There are many harbingers of the Dream Society

Korea, which officially bases

a major portion of its economic growth on the production and distribution of

popular culture (including video games), is one example.

In addition to communication technologies

there are many other technologies

transforming Earth and Humanity.

Robotics

Artificial Intelligence

and the emergence of

Cultures of Autonomous Beings

Genetic engineering,

clones,

cyborgsand the

emergence of post-homo sapiens

Space exploration,

space settlements

and the emergence of

new intelligent life-forms and cultures

These technologies--and more-- all contribute to the

possibility of a Dream Society replacing current

Information and Industrial Societies.

A Dream Society is not inevitable.

There are many other

possible futures.

Continuation of

Industrial and

Information Society

The Clash

of

Fundamentalisms

(Political, Economic, Religious, Cultural)

Economic

and/ or

Environmental

Collapse

End of oilglobal climate change

sea level riseshortages of food and waternew and renewed diseases

continued global population growthand regional depopulation

Unsustainabledebt-bound

neoliberal capitalism

with no viable alternative

So what is YOUR preferred future?

If you are not active in working with others in envisioning and creating your preferred future,

then you can be sure you will live in a future

that others have invented and created for themselves on their preferences.

So learn to identify and surf the tsunamis of change.

But while doing so, be sure to remember:

Any Useful Idea About the Futures

Should Appear to be

Ridiculous

How Futures Studies Can Improve Your Life & Work

Creating More Effective Futures-Oriented

Lives and Institutions

Jim Dator

Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies Department of Political Science

University of Hawaii <[email protected]>

<www.futures.hawaii.edu>