Do European universities prepare enough graduates to face the objective of increasing R&D activities? Prof. Jean-Jacques PAUL Iredu/University of Burgundy,CNRS.

Do European universities prepare enough graduates to face the objective of

increasing R&D activities?

Prof. Jean-Jacques PAUL

Iredu/University of Burgundy,CNRSPresentation given at the European Conference: « The career

of a researcher in the European Research Area »,

Badia Fiesolana-European University Institute, Florence, July 16-18 2003

Iredu

• Research Institute in the economics and sociology of education

• 30 researchers

•linked to the Burgundy University and to the CNRS

• celebrates its 30th anniversary this year

Iredu

Decisions of the Barcelona European Council

• research and technological development (R&D) investment in the EU must be increased with the aim of approaching 3% of GDP by 2010, up from 1.9% in 2000

• the level of business funding should rise from its current level of 56% to two-thirds of total R&D investment (a proportion already achieved in the US and in some European countries)

Statements of the EU CommissionCommunications from the Commission

“More research for Europe”, Towards 3% of GDPBrussels, 11.9.2002

• Recognition of the importance of having sufficient numbers of research scientists and engineers with appropriate qualifications.

• R&D is particularly labour intensive and available data show that lack of human resources is a major constraint on the EU’s capacity to deliver on the 3% objective

Investing in research: an action plan for EuropeBrussels, 30.04.03

• Increased investment in research will raise the demand for researchers: about 1.2 million additional research personnel, including 700.000 additional researchers, are deemed necessary to attain the objective

• Risk that the supply of human resources in R&D and of teachers to train this resources may become inadequate for future needs

How many researchers today?

The US employ more researchers (total and relative numbers) than the EU

1999Total number of researchers

Per thousandlabor force

EU15 919.796 5,4US 1.219.407 8,1

Proportion of researchers by sector of activity

• The US employ more researchers in the business sector, whereas the EU employs more researchers in the governmental and HE sectors

Business GvtalHigher Education

EU15 50 15 35US 84 4 12

More graduates are « produced » in the EU than in the US

Graduates(1998)

Science &Engineering

Health &Food

EU 15 523.081 336.132US 348.549 322.758

More PhDs « produced »in the EU

New PhDs per thousandpopulation (aged 25-34)

EU15 0.56US 0.48Sweden 1.24Finland 1.09Spain 0.36Netherland 0.34Portugal 0.26Greece 0.19Italy 0.16

• The production of graduates does not seem to be presently a bottleneck for the development of research

• Is there any domain with problems of shortage?

• Will the ageing issue weaken the supply of scientists?

Mathematics, physics and chemistry are the most seriously affected by the decrease of students (especially in Germany, the Netherlands, France and the United Kingdom).

In the Netherlands, the proportion of first-year students in natural sciences and engineering dropped from 17% in 1982 to 10% in 1998 (Sniders, 2001).

In Germany, shortages seem to occur above all in disciplines such as ICT or biotechnology

Emerging difficulties to fill up vacancies in doctoral training and research positions in engineering and the natural sciences.

Background paper for the Rome workshop on “Fostering the development of Human Resources for Sciences and Technology”. Rome 5-6 June 2003

Based on the responses to an OECD questionnaire, the increasingly imbalanced age structure of the research community in the public sector seems to be of concern in Italy, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.

A quarter of researchers in the Italian public sector are age 50 or older. In Swedish Higher Education, almost 75% of professors are over 50, with a majority in the 55 to 59 age bracket. 

In the Netherlands, academic personnel are ageing rapidly. Extrapolation of recent changes in academic staff shows that shortages could occur in all disciplines and positions, amounting to 12 percent of the current staff positions. A decrease in interest for PhD positions among students may deepen the recruitment problem (Van Dijk and Webbink, 2000).

In Germany, due to the increased hiring of highly skilled young researchers by universities in the years to come, an increased competition between the private and the public sector is expected.

In France, the replacement of baby-boom generation in public research and higher education will not cause shortages (12000 PhDs produced per year compared with 5000 recruitments) of good quality applicants, if the attractivity of the careers does not worsen (Barré, 2002)

Problems of Management of Human Resources in HE

In the Netherlands, as in other countries, there are areas with many students and few researchers (Economics and law) and areas with few students and many researchers (natural sciences) (Sniders).  If we wish to maintain the research system in its current size and structure, then large shortages will develop in several disciplines. Vacant positions need not to be filled in the same discipline.

To be careful when speaking of shortages of graduates

• In the US, panic about coming shortages soared in 1989, when the chief of policy analysis at the NSF circulated a paper that calculated a “shortfall” of nearly 700,000 bachelor degrees in science and engineering between 1986 and 2011. 

• The projections proved so erroneous that the current NSF director has since repudiated the projections claiming the shortage alarm was groundless (Weinstein).

According to the president of the Association of the American Universities Robert Rosenzweig, in 1990, “Unless prompt action is taken, a sharply increased demand for PhDs in the United States will outstrip a comparatively level supply before the turn of the century. Industry, government, and universities will be pitted against each other in a battle for this critical human resource, and the entire nation will pay the price – diminished leadership and competitive strength”.

Among serious analysts, who have examined the surge in Science and Engineering PhD production, there is little question that the market has been glutted since the beginning of the 1990 (Weinstein). The rate of unemployment for new PhD in Mathematics grew from 6% in 1990 to 15% in 1995.

In France, according to Beltramo, Paul and Perret (2000), the end of the 80’s has been a period of fear of a shortage of PhDs for 2000. In fact, the job prospects of these graduates worsened (more unemployment, more short term contracts from 1993 onward).

If the job propects became recently better, the earnings of PhDs remain lower than for engineering Master graduates and the situation is worrying for areas such as Chemistry and Biology.

Some suggestions for a better use of scientific labour force

• To increase the R&D expenditure per researcher (Data on R&D expenditure per researcher in the higher education sector in 2000 show that the US spends USD 17 million per 100 full-time equivalent staff, far more than the USD 7.6 million spent by Japan and USD 9.8 million by the European Union, OECD Report).

• To increase the attractivity of R&D occupations /the earnings of researchers in companies (other engineers are paid more)

• To stimulate R&D cooperation between HE and SMEs and all forms of transfer (involment of companies in the training process, including at the PhD level, such as industrial PhD programs)

Suggestions for a better adjustment between supply and demand

• More data are needed at an international level: transition into the labour market of PhDs by field of study, expectations of students regarding Master versus PhD

• Targeted actions for attracting students at secondary, bachelor, Master and PhD levels in some specific areas (natural sciences, biotechnology): new curricula, grants…

• To be careful with the stationarity of the proportion of young people accessing HE is some countries such as France,

• To enhance the ability of workers to cope with innovation and to participate in the innovation process, that means:

• Changes/evolution of the modes of teaching and learning in order to produce competencies required by the knowledge based society (Paul, 2003)

More research work for social scientists

• The content of research work: does the concept of researcher have the same meaning in the US and in EU?

• How to explain that in the US only 36% of Federal scientists and engineers have a PhD or a Master,

• whereas for instance in France, this is the case of 83% of the researchers in companies?

Brief conclusion

• It does not seem that the supply of Master’s and PhD graduates represents the more important limitation for the development of R&D activities in Europe

• However shortages may happen in specific areas and there is a room for political initiatives in promoting higher education and training in these domains