Do Day-Ahead Electricity Prices Reflect Economic Fundamentals?: Evidence from the California ISO Kevin F. Forbes School of Business and Economics, The Catholic University of America, Washington DC USA 20064. Email: [email protected]Ernest M. Zampelli School of Business and Economics, The Catholic University of America, Washington DC USA 20064. Email: [email protected]This paper presents a novel test of the informational content of day-ahead electricity prices. It is hypothesized that if day-ahead markets for electricity are efficient, then the day- ahead prices will reflect the processed information and expectations of all market participants regarding the next day’s electricity load and thus the prices may be useful in actually predicting the next day’s load. We test this hypothesis using data for the PG&E aggregation area in the California ISO (CAISO). The results provide evidence of a positive and significant relationship between the hourly day-ahead electricity price (relative to the natural gas price) and the subsequent actual hourly load. The reported relationship is sufficiently robust to produce a
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Do Day-Ahead Electricity Prices Reflect Economic
Fundamentals?:
Evidence from the California ISO
Kevin F. Forbes
School of Business and Economics, The Catholic University of America, Washington DC USA 20064.