DNC/RNC 2016 Election Background Guide

Republican National Convention vs.

Democratic National Convention 2016

Joint Crisis Committee Chairs & Crisis Director: Brett Parker, Matthew Cohen,

Alex Richard, and Joe Troderman

Stanford Model United Nations Conference 2015

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Hello Everyone!

My name is Brett Parker, and I will be the Chair for the Republican National Committee

in this Joint Crisis Committee (JCC). I am looking forward to meeting all of you this fall!

I'm currently a junior at Stanford, double majoring in political science and philosophy.

On campus, I am the Managing Editor for the Stanford Political Journal (shameless plug: check

out my author archive at http://stanfordpolitics.com/author/bparker2/! You might get some hints

as to my perspective on the 2016 elections). I am also the Membership Director for the Stanford

Democrats, an editorial board member for the Dualist Undergraduate Journal of Philosophy, and

an enthusiastic member of the Stanford Model United Nations Team!

In 2013, I chaired the 1960 presidential election JCC for SMUNC. In 2014, I was off-

campus during SMUNC working for the Maine Democratic Party during the midterm elections.

I missed SMUNC, and I am thrilled to be back this year. Alex, Matthew, Joe, and myself have

put a lot of work into planning this committee, and we are extremely excited for a fast-paced,

dynamic election simulation.

You should all be aware, though, that there are a few aspects of this committee that are

different from a standard MUN General Assembly. First, this is a Joint Crisis Committee. That

means that the delegates are split into two separate, but interacting committees. One of these

will be the Democratic National Committee (DNC), and the other will be the Republican

National Committee (RNC). These committees are being run in separate rooms, but

contemporaneously, meaning any actions taken by the DNC will be reflected in the RNC, and

visa versa. Each committee will be expected to react to choices made by the other committee as

both barrel towards Election Day.

Second, this committee is a crisis committee. In a crisis committee, delegates can take

actions as individuals, in addition to taking actions as a committee. For instance, if a delegate

were representing DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, she would have the power to

take any action DWS could take in real life. For example, the delegate representing DWS could


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order her congressional aids to introduce a bill in the House changing election laws. To take this

sort of individual action, a delegate writes a note to “crisis” (our crisis staffers) detailing what

she would like to have done, and a plan for accomplishing it. If crisis thinks the plan is realistic

and feasible, they will allow the delegate to take that action, irrespective of whether other

members of the committee would approve. In this manner, an individual delegate can change the

course of the committee.

Regarding position papers, please try to make them no longer than a single page, single

spaced. These papers should include a brief description of your goals for your party committee,

goals for your character, potential actions you would like the committee to take, and potential

actions your character might take on her own. A short to mid-length paragraph for each section

would be sufficient.

All of the staff of this committee will be working hard to ensure it is a memorable

experience for all of you. Please reach out to me if you have any questions at all about the

committee in the run-up to SMUNC.

Sincerely,

Brett Parker

RNC Chair

[email protected]


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Dear Delegates,

Welcome to the 2016 General Election! This fall, you get three days to steer either the

Democratic National Committee or the Republican National Committee. While it is difficult to

determine the outcome of the 2016 elections before even the first voting of any kind, the Iowa

Caucuses, one thing is certain: the Senate and White House are up for grabs and there is no clear

party destined to control either one.

My name is Matthew, and for this simulation, I will be the chair of the DNC,

Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL). I am a sophomore majoring in Political

Science and considering majoring in Earth Systems, as well. Originally from Orange County,

California, I never did MUN in high school, but have enjoyed the college MUN experience. As

of now, I do not have a strong desire to pursue international relations, but I do enjoy learning

skills such as negotiating and debating through MUN.

I decided to be part of this committee because I love politics and am especially interested

in the 2016 elections. With unresolved issues like global warming, income inequality, and race

relations, the outcome of the next elections will have a profound impact on where we are heading

as a nation.

With such high stakes, I am looking for passionate and knowledgeable delegates who will

be able to steer the DNC to a landslide victory. Leading up to the conference, I suggest regularly

reading articles from Politico, The New York Times, and other reputable news outlets to make

sure that you are up to date. Also, the DailyKos has a great election section that can give you a

lot of information (albeit, it's slightly biased) about the senate elections that major news outlets

will not pick up (See an example here).


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If you have any questions don't hesitate to email me. I look forward to working with you

all.

Best Regards,

Matthew Cohen

DNC Chair

[email protected]


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Welcome delegates,

I am Alex Richard, and I will be the Crisis Director for the Democratic National

Committee. It is my pleasure to welcome you to this session of the Stanford Model United

Nations Conference.

I'm currently a senior at Stanford, studying Computer Science. I was born in Boston, MA,

but grew up in Atlanta, GA. On campus, I have been our MUN team co-captain; at SMUNC, I've

chaired the IAEA, the Jewish-Roman War, the American Civil War (USA), and been the

Director of Logistics and Director of Business Affairs.

I am very excited to meet all of you and see how you react to our crises. If you have any

questions or concerns about the committee, please do not hesitate to contact me.

Best,

Alex Richard

DNC Crisis Director

[email protected]


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Dear Delegates,

Welcome to the 2016 Presidential Election JCC of the 2015 Stanford Model United

Nations Conference! My name is Joe Troderman, and I will be the Crisis Director for the

Republican National Committee.

Elections are turbulent and exhausting to run, but I have faith that you are all up to the

challenge! As Brett has already noted, all of you in the RNC will be in communication with me

to make your behind-the-scenes actions become political reality. You will be challenged not just

by the Democrats in this election, but also internally by your party. After eight years without the

presidency the question of what the new Republican party should look like is not one without

turbulence to it. You can expect some standard challenges, but this wouldn’t be a crisis without a

few curveballs, so always be on the ready!

This is my first time working on a JCC, but I am excited to work on this with you and

have lots of experience with MUN crises. Last year, I was the Undersecretary-General for Crisis

Operations for SMUNC, meaning that I managed all of the crisis directors for the conference.

The year before that, I was crisis director for The French Revolution (of 1789).

I am a senior at Stanford majoring in Chemical Engineering. Like Alex, I was also born

in Boston—but I’m a Bostonian through and through, and didn’t leave there until I moved out to

California for school. I joined Stanford’s Model United Nations Traveling Team my freshman

spring, having never done MUN in high school. I always thought MUN was just General

Assemblies when I was your age, and so when I was exposed to the concept of a crisis

committee in college, I knew I had found something that interested me greatly. It is my hope that

you all experience the same joy I have always received from crisis committees in my time at

Stanford.


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Outside of MUN, I am very involved in the chemical engineering community on campus,

where I participate in research and am the president of our chemical engineering social group,

AIChE. I am also a writer for our humor publication on campus, The Flipside (you can find us

online too, but unlike Brett, you will not find any hints of my political leanings from our

website).

I look forward to meeting you all this fall and watching as you grow to learn how crisis

committees work and adapt to the setting of a JCC. If you have any questions for me, you are

always welcome to get in touch!

Best,

Joe Troderman

RNC Crisis Director

[email protected]


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Background Guide

Introduction to the Party Committees

The DNC

What is the Democratic National Committee? The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has

been in existence for nearly 170 years, and is the central organization of the national Democratic

Party.1 It is responsible for the every-day functioning of the Party, and for supporting Democrats

running for public office. The DNC is composed of over 400 members (excluding staff),

including the chair and vice-chair of each state Democratic Party, and representatives selected by

the state parties.2 The committee also has over 70 at large members which are nominated by the

DNC Chairwoman.3

Day-to-Day Responsibilities: In order to keep the Party up and running, the DNC has a full-time

staff working to maintain the organization’s infrastructure. This staff is responsible for

fundraising, filing Federal Election Commission (FEC) disclosure forms, ensuring compliance

with FEC regulations, managing the Party’s public image, strengthening the state Democratic

Parties, developing campaign tools, doing political research, holding events, and dealing with the

logistics.4 This work is overseen by the DNC’s CEO (sometimes known as its Executive

Director).5

1 "Our Party." Democrats.org. The Democratic National Committee, 2015. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. <https://www.democrats.org/about/our-party>. 2 "The Democratic National Committee." Democrats.org. The Democratic National Committee, 2015. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. <https://www.democrats.org/organization/the-democratic-national-committee>. 3 Appleman, Eric. "Democratic National Committee – 2015." P2016.org. Democracy in Action, 2015. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. 4 "Work With Us." Democrats.org. The Democratic National Committee, 2015. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. <https://www.democrats.org/about/work-with-us>. 5 Supra at fn 4.


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While the every-day functions of the DNC are important, they will not be a focus of this

JCC. Instead, we will focusing on the campaign functions of the DNC, which ramp up in

Presidential years.

Campaign Functions: The more glamorous part of the DNC function is to assist Democratic

candidates in winning public office. Chief among the concerns of the DNC is electing a

Democrat to the White House, but it is also deeply invested in ensuring Democratic control of

the U.S House and Senate. To a lesser extend, the DNC is involved in supporting Democratic

candidates for governor, and winning control of state legislative bodies.6

The DNC spends heavily to support its candidates. In 2012, it burned through $319

million, much of which went to waging President Obama’s reelection campaign.7 However,

millions were also spent to ensure Democratic control of the Senate, and to make gains in the

House. For instance, the DNC contributed over $7.2 million to the North Dakota Democratic

Party in a successful bid to elect underdog Heidi Heitkamp to the Senate.8 It also dropped over

$700,000 in Missouri to aid incumbent Claire McCaskill’s difficult reelection bid.9 In 2014, a

midterm year, the DNC spent a more modest $165 million,10 much of which went to supporting

the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and the Democratic Congress

Campaign Committee (DCCC).11 However, the DNC also funneled money directly into state

6 Supra at fn. 2. 7 "Democratic National Cmte." Opensecrets RSS. Center For Responsive Politics, 16 Apr. 2013. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. 8 "Democratic National Cmte: Expenditures." Opensecrets RSS. Center For Responsive Politics, 22 Aug. 2013. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. 9 Supra at fn. 8. 10 "Democratic National Cmte." Opensecrets RSS. Center For Responsive Politics, 6 Apr. 2015. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. 11 "Democratic National Cmte: Expenditures." Opensecrets RSS. Center For Responsive Politics, 18 Mar. 2015. Web. 20 Aug. 2015.


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party organizations in North Carolina, Louisiana, New Hampshire, Alaska, Colorado, and

elsewhere, hoping to hold competitive Senate seats.12

This level of spending requires prodigious fundraising efforts. President Obama

undertakes a substantial fundraising burden himself, appearing at dozens of events on the DNC’s

behalf.13 Meanwhile, DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz practically lives to

fundraise, attending an astounding 885 events during the 2012 election cycle.14 Numerous other

prominent politicians have appeared for the DNC, including Bill and Hillary Clinton.15, 16

Retired individuals were the demographic that contributed the most to the DNC in 2012,

giving over $28 million.17 Lawyers placed second adding over $21 million to the DNC’s haul,

followed by securities and investment interests, and then by the entertainment industry.18

Individually, Time Warner Cable, Google Inc, Microsoft Corp, Blackstone Group, and Harvard

University were the five largest DNC donors.19

In addition to raising and spending money, the DNC also wages vigorous PR campaigns.

It publishes press releases with increasing frequency as election day approaches, and runs a

disciplined message campaign.20 Its PR efforts are aimed at maintaining and strengthening the

Party’s national image, but also at damaging the Republican brand. For evidence, one need look

12 Supra at fn. 11. 13 Oliphant, James. "Why Won't Democrats Talk About Obama's Fundraising?" Www.nationaljournal.com. National Journal, 24 Sept. 2014. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. 14 Palmer, Anna, and Jake Sherman. "DNC Chair Looks to Leverage Money into Power." POLITICO. POLITICO, 2 Aug. 2013. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. 15 "Obama, Clinton To Highlight DNC Fundraiser." TheHuffingtonPost.com. The Huffington Post, 27 Aug. 2014. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. 16 Gordan, Greg, and Anita Kumar. "Bill Clinton's Wall Street Cash Puts Wife in an Ethical Spot." Mcclatchydc. N.p., 2 June 2015. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. 17 "Democratic National Cmte: Industries." Opensecrets RSS. Center For Responsive Politics, 25 Mar. 2013. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. 18 Supra at fn. 17. 19 "Democratic National Cmte: Top Contributors." Opensecrets RSS. Center For Responsive Politics, 25 Mar. 2013. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. 20 "Press." Democrats.org. The Democratic National Committee, 2015. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. <https://www.democrats.org/more/press>.


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no further than its various press releases responding to Republican presidential candidates’

campaign announcements. In response to Jeb Bush’s campaign launch, the DNC Chairwoman

declared, “what makes the specter of a Jeb Bush presidency even more unpalatable is his belief

in his own superiority and infallibility – in my 22 years in elected office I have never worked

with someone who is as inflexible, uncompromising, and willing to do whatever it takes to get

their way as Jeb Bush. These are not the qualities Americans need in their president if we are

going to work together to get things done..”21 Of course, Bush got off easy as compared to Mike

Huckabee, about whom the DNC press secretary opined, “It’s one thing to spout off nonsense on

his TV show, but for Mike Huckabee to present his ideas as legitimate policies for a presidential

campaign is insulting to the American people, though I can't say I am particularly surprised. I

mean, have you heard the rest of the Republican hopefuls?”22 As the 2016 campaign

approaches, the DNC can be expected to attack its Republican opposition with ever increasing

ferocity. The DNC will also spend money on television and radio advertising during the general

election.

Beyond fundraising and messaging, the DNC also is responsible for organizing and

executing the Democratic National Convention. The Convention occurs every four years during

the Presidential election, and is the stage on which the Party formally nominates its Presidential

and Vice Presidential candidates. While the identity of the Party’s Presidential candidate is

usually determined prior to the Convention, the Party’s Platform often is not. The Platform is

negotiated and voted on by Convention delegates, and sets the Party’s national agenda.23 Of

course, not every Democrat will agree with every point in the platform, but it is nevertheless an

21 Supra at fn. 20. 22 Supra at fn. 20. 23 "Our Platform." Democrats.org. The Democratic National Committee, 2015. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. <https://www.democrats.org/party-platform>.


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important document. For example, in 1948, the Democratic National Convention adopted a pro-

civil rights plank in its platform, over the strenuous objections of Southern Democrats.24 This

plank helped push the Party in a more progressive direction, and eventually led to the nomination

of pro-civil rights candidates such as John F. Kennedy, and Lyndon Johnson.25

As this JCC will be taking place after the 2016 DNC, delegates won’t need to worry

about planning and fundraising for the DNC. However, delegates will receive a list of the

positions taken in the Party Platform, and may have to deal with any fall-out from the

Convention.

24 Hamby, Alonzo. "1948 Democratic Convention." Smithsonian.com. Smithsonian, Aug. 2008. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. 25 Supra at fn. 24.


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The RNC

What is the Republican National Committee? The Republican National Committee (RNC) is the

Republican Party analogue to the DNC. It hasn’t been around quite as long (only about 159

years),26 and its composition is slightly different. Each state receives three representatives to the

RNC: their chairperson, their national committeewoman, and their national committeeman.27

The various U.S territories and the District of Columbia receive the same representation. When

all positions are filled, the RNC has only 168 voting members, far fewer than the DNC’s 400+

voting members.28 The RNC also has a 28 person Executive Committee, which governs the

Party in between full committee meetings.29 Chief of Staff Katie Walsh and Chief Operating

Officer Sean Cairncross oversee the RNC staff.30 However, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus is

the formal leader of the RNC.31

Day-to-Day Responsibilities: Like the DNC, the RNC is tasked with keeping the Party running

on a daily basis. Its staff is also responsible for fundraising, filing Federal Election Commission

(FEC) disclosure forms, ensuring compliance with FEC regulations, managing the Party’s public

image, strengthening the state Republican Parties, developing campaign tools, doing political

research, holding events, and dealing with the logistics.32 In this JCC, we will not be focusing on

the day-to-day responsibilities of the RNC.

26 "History of the GOP." GOP. Republican National Committee, 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 27 Appleman, Eric. "Republican National Committee - 2015." P2016.org. Democracy in Action, 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 28 Supra at fn 27. 29 Supra at fn. 27. 30 Supra at fn. 27. 31 Supra at fn. 27. 32 Supra at fn. 27.


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Campaign Functions: Like the DNC, the RNC’s main goal is to elect Republican candidates to

public office. It is primarily concerned with retaking the Presidency in 2016, but is also

committed to maintaining its majorities in the U.S House and Senate.33 The RNC also supports

Republican gubernatorial candidates, and seeks to hold Republican control of the majority of

state legislatures.34

The RNC also raises copious amounts of money during election years to support

Republican candidates. During the 2012 election cycle, it spent over $404 million,35 a large

portion of which went to running Mitt Romney’s failed campaign.36 However, some of that

money also went to supporting House and Senate candidates, including Tommy Thompson of

Wisconsin, and Senator Dean Heller of Nevada.37 In 2014, the RNC spent over $196 million,38

with much of that money going to support Senate candidates in Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina,

Virginia, and Arkansas, among others.39

The RNC’s largest contributors in 2012 were Goldman Sachs, Ryan for Congress, KRR

& Co, Bain Capital, and Blackstone Group.40 It also raised a plurality of its money from retired

individuals, followed by the Securities and Investment industry, the Real Estate industry, the

Finance industry, and the Oil and Gas industry.41 RNC chairman Reince Priebus absorbs much

33 "2016 Republican Platform Survey." GOP. Republican National Committee, 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 34 Supra at fn. 27. 35 "Republican National Cmte." Opensecrets RSS. Center For Responsive Politics, 16 Apr. 2013. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. 36 "Republican National Cmte: Expenditures For and Against Candidates" Opensecrets RSS. Center For Responsive Politics, 16 Apr. 2013. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. 37 "Republican National Cmte: Expenditures" Opensecrets RSS. Center For Responsive Politics, 22 Aug. 2013. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. 38 "Republican National Cmte" Opensecrets RSS. Center For Responsive Politics, 6 Apr. 2015. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. 39 "Republican National Cmte: Expenditures" Opensecrets RSS. Center For Responsive Politics, 18 Mar. 2015. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. 40 "Republican National Cmte: Contributors" Opensecrets RSS. Center For Responsive Politics, 25 Mar. 2013. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. 41 "Republican National Cmte: Industries" Opensecrets RSS. Center For Responsive Politics, 25 Mar. 2013. Web. 20 Aug. 2015.


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of the fundraising burden himself,42 but Republican luminaries such as Mitt Romney and Jeb

Bush have also made fundraising appearances.43,44 Additionally, the RNC raises substantial

funds from selling items such as George H.W Bush autographed socks, and Dick Cheney

autographed cowboy hats.45

The RNC’s PR efforts are no less ambitious than those of the DNC. Much of its efforts

have sought to paint Democratic candidates as unfit for office, and to promote their own

candidates’ records of accomplishment.46 Specifically, the RNC will continue to attack Hillary

Clinton as deceitful and incompetent in the strongest terms possible.47 Upon her official

Presidential announcement in April 2015, it released a statement saying in part the following,

“Over decades as a Washington insider, Clinton has left a trail of secrecy, scandal, and failed

policies that can’t be erased from voters’ minds. The Clintons believe they can play by a

different set of rules and think they’re above transparency, accountability, and ethics. Our next

president must represent a higher standard, and that is not Hillary Clinton.”48 There is little

question that such assaults will intensify as the election approaches.

The RNC is also responsible for writing a platform and organizing the Republican

National Convention.49 Like the delegates to the DNC, the RNC members of this committee will

not need to worry about planning or executing the Convention, as this JCC is set later on.

However, delegates will need to react to any lingering issues that arise out of the Convention.

42 Joesph, Cameron. "Chairman Priebus Leads RNC Revival: From $23M in the Red to $7M in the Black." TheHill. N.p., 16 Feb. 2012. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 43 Haberman, Maggie. "Mitt Romney, Jets Owner to Host Fundraiser."Politico. Politico, 6 Aug. 2014. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 44 Batley, Melanie. "Jeb Bush to Host Big Ticket RNC Fundraiser in Cincinnati." Newsmax. N.p., 11 June 2014. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 45 Feather, A.J. "National Republicans Think Dick Cheney Is a Fashion Icon."ABC News. ABC News Network, 2 Feb. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 46 "Press Releases." GOP. Republican National Committee, 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 47 Supra at fn. 46. 48 Supra at fn. 46. 49 Supra at fn. 33.


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Restrictions on the Committees and Individuals

Fundraising: While the DNC and the RNC both wield significant influence, their powers are not

unlimited, and each must comply with various legal restrictions. Specifically, delegates will

have to keep in mind various restrictions on the amount of money each committee can raise from

certain groups and individuals. Following the passage of the Consolidated and Further

Continuing Appropriations Act of 2015, party committees can now accept contributions of up to

$334,000 from individuals,50 so long as those contributions are structured in a certain manner.

Each committee can also accept contributions reaching $150,000 from Political Action

Committees (PACs).51 However, there are no restrictions on how much money each party

committee can raise.52

Expenditures: In the Supreme Court’s 1976 decision in Buckley v. Valeo, limits on total

campaign expenditures by candidates and political organizations were ruled unconstitutional.53

Nevertheless, there remains some minor restrictions on the degree to which national committees

can coordinate expenditures with candidates.54 A coordinated expenditure, according to the FEC

is an expenditure “made in cooperation, consultation or concert with, or at the request or

suggestion of, a candidate, a candidate's authorized committee, or their agents, or a political

50 "H.R.83 - Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act, 2015."Congress.gov. The United States Congress, 16 Dec. 2014. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 51 "2015-2016 Federal Contribution Limits." Venerable (n.d.): n. pag. Venerable, 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 52 Buckley v. Valeo. Supreme Court of the United States. 30 Jan. 1976. Print. 53 Supra at fn. 52. 54 "Electronic Code of Federal Regulations." ECFR.gov. U.S Government Publishing Office, 19 Aug. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. http://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/retrieveECFR?gp=&SID=14a8848858fd24108bc42092c9a1b836&mc=true&n=pt11.1.109&r=PART&ty=HTML#se11.1.109_132


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party committee or its agents.”55 An example of a coordinated expenditure would be a television

advertisement paid for by the DNC, but designed by the Democratic nominee’s campaign

manager.

In 2012, national party committees could only spend a little over $21 million in direct

coordination with its Presidential candidate.56 The 2016 limit will be determined by a rather

arcane formula: the total voting age U.S population multiplied by 2 cents, multiplied by the 2016

cost of living adjustment.57 For the sake of this committee, we will assume the coordinated

expenditure limit to be approximately $25 million.

Outside of coordinated expenditures, national party committees can make independent

expenditures on behalf of its candidates. These expenditures cannot be coordinated with anyone

on the candidate’s campaign staff.58 In reality, this proscription presents no obstacle to national

committees, as they are free to work with anyone who is not formally a part of the candidate’s

campaign (i.e. her former chief-of-staff, her best friend, etc.).59 Independent expenditures will

also occasionally need to be structured in specific ways to avoid running afoul of the law,60 but

for the sake of this JCC, we will assume those payments will be structured correctly.

Restrictions on Individual Delegates: As DNC or RNC committee members, delegates will be

afforded all the power and influence their character would have in real life. For example, a

55 "Electronic Code of Federal Regulations." ECFR.gov. U.S Government Publishing Office, 19 Aug. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. <http://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/retrieveECFR?gp=&SID=14a8848858fd24108bc42092c9a1b836&mc=true&n=sp11.1.109.c&r=SUBPART&ty=HTML>. 56 "2012 Coordinated Party Expenditure Limits." Coordinated Party Expenditure Limits for 2012. FEC, 2012. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. <http://www.fec.gov/info/charts_441ad_2012.shtml>. 57 Supra at fn. 54. 58 Supra at fn. 54. 59 The Editorial Board. "How Super PACs Can Run Campaigns." The New York Times. The New York Times, 26 Apr. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. <http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/27/opinion/how-super-pacs-can-run-campaigns.html?_r=0>. 60 Supra at fn. 54.


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delegated assigned the role of DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz would have the

ability to privately communicate with members of Congress (as DWS is a Congresswoman

herself). As DNC chair, she also might be able to call in favors with individuals who owe her

deference. However, she would not, for example, have the power to spend $400 billion of her

personal assets on the Presidential campaign, or to declare war against China.

Delegates will be assumed to have researched the sort of influence their characters might

have (i.e. personal wealth, high-level connections, or a media platform), and to deploy this

influence to both aid their party and increase their personal power.


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Potential Characters

Each delegate will be assigned a character within the DNC or RNC. No delegate will be

assigned the role of DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz or RNC chairman Reince

Priebus. The Chairs of this JCC will assume those roles. What follows is a list of characters a

delegate may potentially be assigned:

DNC:

Donna Brazile ( DNC Vice Chair)

Maria Elena Durazo (DNC Vice Chair)

Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (DNC Vice Chair)

Raymond Buckley (DNC Vice Chair)

R.T Rybak (DNC Vice Chair)

Andrew Tobias (DNC Treasurer)

Stephanie Rawlings-Blake (DNC Secretary)

Amy Dacey (DNC Chief Executive Officer)

Mo Eliethee (DNC Communications Director)

Henry Muñoz (DNC National Finance Chair)

Lindsey Reynolds (DNC Chief Operating Officer)

Raul Alvillar (DNC Political Director)

Michael Czin (DNC National Press Secretary)

Matt Compton (DNC Digital Director)

Jordan Kaplan (DNC National Finance Director)

Bob Bauer (DNC General Counsel)

David Pepper (Ohio Democratic Party Chairman)


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Allison Tant (Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman)

Martha Laning (Chairwoman, Democratic Party of Wisconsin)

Jim Burn (Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chairman)

Raymond Buckley (New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairman)

Roberta Lange (Nevada Democratic Party Chairwoman)

Rick Palacio (Colorado Democratic Party Chairman)

Susan Swecker (Virginia Democratic Party Chairwoman)

Patsy Keever (North Carolina Democratic Party Chairwoman)

RNC:

Sharon Day (RNC Co-Chair)

Tony Parker (RNC Treasurer)

Susie Hudson (RNC Secretary)

Lew Eisenberg (RNC Finance Chairman)

John Ryder (RNC General Counsel)

Katie Walsh (RNC Chief of Staff)

Sean Cairncross (RNC Chief Operating Officer)

Chris Carr (RNC Political Director)

Chris Young (RNC National Field Director)

Sean Spicer (RNC Chief Strategist and Communications Director)

Allison Moore (RNC Press Secretary)

Raj Shah (RNC Research Director)

Azarias Reda (RNC Chief Technology Officer)

Cara Mason (RNC Finance Director)


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John Phillippe (RNC Chief Counsel)

Jeff Larson (Senior Advisor)

Blaise Ingoglia (Florida Republican Party Chairman)

Matt Borges (Ohio Republican Party Chairman)

John Whitbeck (Virginia Republican Party Chairman)

Steven House (Colorado Republican Party Chairman)

Michael McDonald (Nevada Republican Party Chairman)

Brad Courtney (Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman)

Hasan Harnett (North Carolina Republican Party Chairman)

Rob Gleason (Pennsylvania Republican Party Chairman)


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Competitive Races and Candidates

The Presidency

The GOP: The Republican Primary is a cacophonous delight, but we’re betting that when the

noise dies down, it will be the guy with gobs of money and general-electability (to coin a term)

left standing. Jeb Bush will be the Republican Party’s Presidential nominee in this JCC.

Bush is well-positioned to take the White House in 2016. His two terms as governor of

Florida were considered a success by the Republican establishment, and he managed to leave

office just before the GOP took its sharp turn to the right.61 Unlike the majority of Republican

politicians, Bush is in fair standing with the Hispanic community, now the nation’s second

largest ethnic group.62 Bush speaks fluent Spanish, his wife is Mexican, and his immigration

policy positions are liberal by Republican standards.63 He favors a path to legalization for all

undocumented immigrants, and has called undocumented immigration “an act of love.”64 This

more tolerant orientation has Bush poised to do as well as his brother among Hispanic voters

(George W. Bush earned over 40% of the national Hispanic vote in 2004).65 If Jeb hits the 40%

mark among Hispanic voters nationwide, he will be in excellent shape in the crucial swing-states

of Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.

Moreover, Bush’s fundraising acumen is nearly unparalleled. With the vast fundraising

networks of his brother and father at his fingertips, and the business community kowtowing in

his presence, Bush could easily raise $2 billion between his SuperPAC (Right to Rise) and his

61 "Declared 2016 GOP Candidate: Jeb Bush." USA Today. Gannett, 14 Aug. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 62 Romo, Rafael. "Can Jeb's Latino Roots Help Him Win Hispanic Voters?" CNN. Cable News Network, 16 June 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 63 Romo, Rafael. "Can Jeb's Latino Roots Help Him Win Hispanic Voters?" CNN. Cable News Network, 16 June 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 64 Shabad, Rebecca. "Jeb Bush Stands by 'act of Love' Remark on Illegal Immigration." TheHill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corp, 06 Aug. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 65 Vespa, Matt. "Rubio Pollster: GOP Needs 40 Percent Of The Hispanic Vote To Win In 2016." Townhall.com. N.p., 2 Apr. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015.


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campaign.66 In the second quarter of 2015 (Bush’s first fundraising report), Bush raised a record

$114 million for his various campaign entities.67 As the Republican’s nominee, Bush’s

campaign will almost have more money than it can even spend.

Outside of his moderate immigration stance, Bush is essentially a mainstream

conservative.68 He was an enthusiastic supporter of the death penalty as Florida governor,69 and

he is staunchly pro-life when it comes to abortion.70 Like his brother, Jeb favors a muscular

foreign policy, and is seeking to expand the global presence of the United States beyond what

President Obama has allowed. He’s also promised to repeal the Affordable Care Act

(colloquially known as Obamacare), and reduce federal government regulations on businesses.71

As such, while the media may portray Bush as a moderate, he has the conservative bonafides of a

typical GOP candidate.72

Aside from his good-standing among Hispanic voters and his fundraising prowess, Bush

has several other advantages. For one, running in a primary with the likes of Donald Trump73

and Ted Cruz74 has burnished his moderate credentials. On issues as diverse as the confederate

flag debate of July 2015 to the Iran nuclear negotiations from the same month, Bush has

66 Parnes, Amie, and Kevin Cirilli. "The $5 Billion Presidential Campaign?" TheHill. N.p., 21 Jan. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 67 Ballhaus, Rebecca. "Jeb Bush and Allies Raise More Than $114 Million in 2016 Race." WSJ. N.p., 9 July 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 68 Meckler, Laura. "What Kind of Republican Is Bush? His Time as Governor Offers Clues." WSJ. N.p., 16 Dec. 2014. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 69 Gibson, David. "Pope Francis Takes a Dim View of the Death Penalty, but Not All Catholics Are Convinced." National Catholic Reporter. N.p., 24 Mar. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 70 Supra at fn. 68. 71 "Jeb Bush on the Issues." On the Issues. OntheIssues.org, June 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 72 Meckler, Laura. "What Kind of Republican Is Bush? His Time as Governor Offers Clues." WSJ. N.p., 16 Dec. 2014. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 73 Ehley, Brianna. "Breaking from Rivals, Jeb Bush Defends Birthright Citizenship." Politico. Politico, 18 Aug. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 74 Connelly, Joel. "Trump, Cruz, Palin: Revoke Birthright Citizenship for Children Born in America to Undocumented Immigrants." Seattle Pi. N.p., 19 Aug. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015.


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consistently taken positions that seem far more rational that his former Republican opponents.75

For instance, while Scott Walker said he would dismantle the nuclear accord achieved by

President Obama in his first day in office, Bush correctly noted that such talk was foolish.76 On

his first day in office, a President wouldn’t even have a Secretary of State in place, let alone the

infrastructure necessary to carry out a foreign policy decision of that magnitude. By dismissing

Walker’s statement, Bush demonstrated the maturity many American’s seek in their President.

Bush’s Iran stance also highlights another advantage: his intelligence. Fairly or unfairly, George

W. Bush acquired a reputation as a man of limited intellectual capacity.77 By contrast, Jeb is

considered to be extremely bright, and a bit of a policy wonk.78 Between his maturity and

reason, a typical voter could easily picture Bush as President.

Beyond his personality and policy positions, Bush has a significant structural advantage:

voter fatigue. Since the end of Truman’s administration, both parties have found it extremely

difficult to hold the White House for more than eight consecutive years. In the years since 1949,

it has only occurred once (Reagan and Bush Sr. from 1981 to 1993).79 Regardless of the

reputation President Obama has earned upon leaving office, the Democratic nominee will have to

contend with voter restlessness. Moreover, if President Obama’s approval rating dips below the

high 40’s, voters will become even more impatient for a change of leadership.

Well-positioned as he might seem, Bush also has numerous weaknesses. Perhaps the

most obvious is his last name; though his father and brother have bolsted his fundraising efforts,

75 Landers, Elizabeth, and Eric Brander. "Jeb Bush: Confederate Flag Is 'racist'" CNN. Cable News Network, 30 June 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 76 Stokols, Eli. "Jeb Bush: I Wouldn't Roll Back Obama's Iran Deal on Day 1." Politico. Politico, 17 July 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 77 Baker, Peter. "Pundits Renounce The President." Washington Post. The Washington Post, 20 Aug. 2006. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 78 Holland, Steve. "A Different Sort of Bush: Policy Wonk Jeb Faces Campaign Image Test." Reuters. Thomson Reuters, 09 Mar. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 79 "Presidents & Vice Presidents." PresidentsUSA.net. Baaron's Hill LLC, 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015.


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they could hurt him among voters who are wary of political dynasties. Even more so than

Hillary Clinton, Bush seemed born with a silver spoon in his mouth, and some Americans are

concerned that his election would turn the Presidency into little more than an inherited title of

nobility.80 Additionally, while his father’s Presidency is now remembered somewhat fondly,

Jeb’s brother left office with the U.S engrossed in two endless wars, and mired in the worst

economic situation since the Great Depression.81 George W.’s record will provide Jeb’s

opponent with ample ammunition. This creates a difficult balancing act: Bush must distinguish

his positions from his brother’s, while avoiding the appearance of callous disregard for his

family.

Bush’s reputation among the GOP’s base could also cause him trouble. While

conservative by the standards of the average American, Bush is regarded as a Republican-in-

name-only (RINO) by some Republican grassroots activists.82 Their enthusiasm for his general

election campaign may be limited, especially in light of his stances on immigration and the

Common Core (a set of nationwide educational standards despised by rock-ribbed

Republicans).83 If those individuals fail to volunteer for Bush, or worse, if they can’t muster the

energy to vote, Bush could be deprived of a critical base of support. Given the razor-thin

margins in most swing-states, this could be a decisive disadvantage.

The Democrats: While recent months have strengthened Hillary Clinton’s reputation as

imperious and secretive, her structural advantages in the Democratic primary will be too difficult

for an opponent to overcome. Senator Bernie Sander’s campaign may be inspiring for liberals 80 Parton, Heather. "The Bush Dynasty Is Crushing Jeb: How the GOP Identity Crisis Is Ruining This Frontrunner’s Chances." Salon. N.p., 15 May 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 81 Supra at fn. 80. 82 Taibbi, Matt. "Tea Partiers Are Right: Jeb Is a RINO." Rolling Stone. N.p., 18 Dec. 2014. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 83 Hennessey, Kathleen. "Jeb Bush's Embrace of Common Core Is a Campaign Lightning Rod." Los Angeles Times. Los Angeles Times, 20 Aug. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015.


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across the nation, but ultimately, he lacks the support necessary among non-white voters to

seriously challenge Clinton. Furthermore, Clinton has organizational and fundraising capacities

her Democratic colleagues can’t match. For this JCC, Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic

Party’s nominee.

Clinton’s best hope of taking the White House is the so-called “Blue Wall.”84 Over the

past four Presidential elections, Democrats have consistently won states which combined account

for 247 electoral votes, forming a formidable “wall” standing in the GOP’s path.85 If Clinton can

maintain the Democrats’ advantage in those states, she will need to win a mere 23 additional

votes to win the Presidency. Those votes could be provided by Florida alone, Ohio and Virginia

together, or either Ohio or Virginia with North Carolina, or Ohio, Virginia, or North Carolina

combined with a few of Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire.86 All else equal, the

Blue Wall gives the Democrats a built-in edge.87

Hillary’s other strength is her vast political experience. She spent eight years in the

White House as possibly the most engaged first lady since Eleanor Roosevelt, and then moved

straight into eight years in the Senate.88 By the time she completed her four years as Secretary of

State, she had spend twenty consecutive years at the highest levels of the federal government. 89

Irrespective of what people may think of her track record, no one can deny the depth of her

knowledge or preparation to be commander-in-chief.

84 The Blue Wall states are California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Washington, Massachusetts, Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, Connecticut, New Mexico, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island, Delaware, Vermont, and the District of Columbia. And yes, we recognize D.C is not a state, but it has 3 electoral votes. 85 Sabato, Larry, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrery Skelley. "The 2016 Results We Can Already Predict." POLITICO Magazine. N.p., 3 May 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 86 Supra at fn. 85. 87 Supra at fn. 85. 88 "Hillary Clinton." Bio. A&E Television Networks, 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 89 Supra at fn. 88.


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In addition to her experience, Hillary is one of the few Democrats with the fundraising

capacity to compete with a Bush. While Bush does have a proverbial army of millionaires and

billionaires, Clinton can at least count of the political largess of George Soros, Tom Steyer, and

Donald Sussman.90 Hillary is also friendly enough with Wall Street from her years as a New

York Senator to reap millions from bankers and brokers.91 Moreover, if her campaign is smart, it

should be able to tap the enthusiasm of millions of Americans who are ready for a woman to

finally be in charge. Hillary should be able to raise at least $1.5 billion.92

Countless Americans, myself included, are impatient to see a woman run the country.

We’ve made progress since the ratification of the 19th Amendment in 1920, but women still only

make up 20% of the 114th Senate,93 and only two of the 22 major Presidential candidates (at the

time of writing) are women.94 If Hillary’s campaign has any political skill, it should be able to

capitalize on this opportunity to increase female turnout beyond its already superior levels.95 In

2008, Hillary avoided discussing her gender, but early signs indicate that she will not make the

same mistake in 2016.96

Democrats have also been incredibly successful at winning the culture war of recent

years. The electorate has become increasingly liberal on social issues, most prominently on

LBGTQ rights,97 but moving into other areas such as immigration and drug legalization.98 62%

90 "Million-Dollar Donors in the 2016 Presidential Race." The New York Times. The New York Times, 04 Aug. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 91 "Hillary Clinton." Opensecrets RSS. Center For Responsive Politics, 3 Aug. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 92 Supra at fn. 66. 93 Bump, Philip. "The New Congress Is 80 Percent White, 80 Percent Male and 92 Percent Christian." Washington Post. The Washington Post, 5 Jan. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 94 Andrews, Wilson, Alicia Parlapiano, and Karen Yourish. "Who Is Running for President?" The New York Times. The New York Times, 14 Aug. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 95 Gray, Emma. "Voter Turnout Infographic Shows Women, Older People Most Likely To Come Out On Election Day." The Huffington Post. TheHuffingtonPost.com, 17 Aug. 2012. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 96 Brazile, Donna. "This Time, Hillary Will Run as a Woman." CNN. Cable News Network, 4 Mar. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 97 Liptak, Adam. "Supreme Court Ruling Makes Same-Sex Marriage a Right Nationwide." The New York Times. The New York Times, 26 June 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015.


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of Americans support a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants,99 and four states

have already legalized marijuana, with more set to follow in 2016.100 Criminal sentencing and

police reform has gained traction in the wake of increasing public awareness of police brutality

and mass incarceration.101 A majority of Americans are pro-choice.102 Democrats are generally

perceived as pursuing more humane policies on all these issues, while Republicans are

increasingly portrayed in the media as backwards.103 All of this favors the Democratic Party’s

nominee.

Nevertheless, Hillary’s vulnerabilities may be sufficient to sink her campaign. The most

glaring flaw is public perception of her character. As of August 2015, Hillary’s trustworthiness

numbers were only marginally better than Donald Trump’s.104 A sizable portion of the country

associates her with scandal, whether it be the fictional variety (Benghazi) or the legitimately

troubling (email-gate).105 Clinton’s personality is increasingly being compared to a past

President who once lost the Presidency, only to rise from the ashes eight years later.106 (Richard

Nixon did win two general elections, but I don’t think Hillary would be flattered by the analogy.)

Finally, Hillary has a famously testy relationship with the press, which could weigh on

her candidacy. From her early days as first lady to the trials of the Monica Lewinsky affair,

98 Stebbins, Sam, Michael Sauter, and Thomas Frohlich. "The next 11 States to Legalize Marijuana." USA Today. Gannett, 19 Aug. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 99 Preston, Julia. "Poll Shows Path to Citizenship Is Favored." The New York Times. The New York Times, 09 June 2014. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 100 Stebbins, Sam, Michael Sauter, and Homas Frohlich. "The next 11 States to Legalize Marijuana." USA Today. Gannett, 19 Aug. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 101 Patterson, Brandon. "America's Apartheid: Legalized Discrimination through Mass Incarceration." The Huffington Post. TheHuffingtonPost.com, 30 July 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 102 Velencia, Janie. "Percentage Of Pro-Choice Americans Is Highest Since 2008." The Huffington Post. TheHuffingtonPost.com, 29 May 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 103 "Democrats Have More Positive Image, But GOP Runs Even or Ahead on Key Issues." Pew Research Center for the People and the Press RSS. Pew Research Center, 26 Feb. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 104 Cillizza, Chris. "Hillary Clinton: As Honest and Trustworthy as Donald Trump." Washington Post. The Washington Post, 30 July 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 105 "Here They Are: Hillary’s 22 Biggest Scandals Ever." WND. N.p., 18 May 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 106 Purdum, Todd. "Hillary in Nixon's Shadow." Politico. Politico, 7 Mar. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015.


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Hillary has projected a hostility to the press that few candidates can successfully overcome.107

During this campaign season, Hillary has already endured criticisms for her inaccessibility,

personified by her aides decision to corral the press with a moving rope-line as Hillary walked in

a parade.108 A public spat between her campaign and the New York Times hasn’t improved her

media coverage.109 While she doesn’t necessarily need to take press members into her inner

sanctum, she will be greatly disadvantaged if she can’t manage at least a cordial relationship with

the fourth estate.

The Senate

Overview: The GOP successfully regained the Senate in 2014 after eight years of Democratic

control. Thanks to a favorable Senate map and remarkably low turnout,110 the Republicans

managed to win an eight person majority in the Upper House.111 The Elephants face a far

tougher electoral map in 2016, and can only afford to lose four seats at most, if they hope to

maintain their majority.112 With vulnerable incumbents in Illinois, Wisconsin, New Hampshire,

and Pennsylvania, competitive races in Ohio and North Carolina, and formerly GOP-held open

seats in Florida and Indiana, Republicans could easily lose control of the Senate.

107 Frum, David. "Why Won't Hillary Clinton Talk to Reporters?" The Atlantic. Atlantic Media Company, 06 July 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 108 Simon, Roger. "Hillary Rope-a-dopes Press, but Who's the Dope?" Politico. Politico, 7 July 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 109 Hartmann, Margaret. "Why the Clinton Campaign Is Feuding With the New York Times." New York Magazine. N.p., 31 July 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 110 DelReal, Jose. "Voter Turnout in 2014 Was the Lowest since WWII." Washington Post. The Washington Post, 10 Nov. 2014. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 111 "2014 Election Results Senate: Map by State, Live Midterm Voting Updates." POLITICO. N.p., 17 Dec. 2014. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 112 Supra at fn. 111.


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Illinois: Pundits have pointed to Illinois as the Democrats’ best chance to pick up a Senate seat

in 2016.113 Illinois is a solidly blue state in Presidential years, having cast its electoral votes for

Democrats every year since 1992.114 Moreover, the Republican incumbent in that seat, Mark

Kirk, is relatively unpopular. A mere 28% of Illinois voters approve of Kirk’s performance,

while 32% disapprove.115 Kirk also has a history of gaffes, including comparing the Iran nuclear

agreement to the British appeasement of the Germans prior to World War II.116 However, Kirk

is regarded as a fairly moderate Senator; he is pro-choice, and opposed a constitutional

amendment to ban same-sex marriage.117 He also has the benefit of a lengthy military record,

and the support of a national Republican Party willing to spend heavily to keep him in power.118

Kirk will start out the race as an underdog, though,119 as he is poised to face popular

Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth is the general election. Duckworth has perhaps the most

compelling story of any Senate candidate. The Congresswoman is a double amputee: she lost

both her legs fighting in the second Iraq war.120 In addition to serving two terms in Congress,

Duckworth is also a former assistant Secretary of the Department of Veterans Affairs.121 Given

Duckworth’s strong personal credentials, it’s no surprise she was leading Kirk 42%-36% in a

July 29 Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey.122

113 Sabato, Larry. "Can Democrats Retake the Senate in 2016?" POLITICO Magazine. N.p., 2 Mar. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 114 "Illinois." 270towin. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 115 "Kirk Unpopular, Trails Duckworth." Public Policy Polling. N.p., 29 July 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 116 Pearson, Rick. "Despite Gaffes, It's Kirk or Bust for Republicans." Chicagotribune.com. N.p., 29 July 2015. Web. 23 Aug. 2015. 117 "Mark Kirk on the Issues." Ontheissues.org. N.p., 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 118 Sabella, Jen. "Mark Kirk's Military Record An Impressive One, Even Without The Embellishments." The Huffington Post. TheHuffingtonPost.com, 14 July 2010. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 119 Supra at fn. 116. 120 "About Tammy." Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth. N.p., 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 121 Supra at fn. 120. 122 Supra at fn. 116.


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Wisconsin: GOP Senator Ron Johnson won his Wisconsin seat by 2% during a midterm election

that doubled as the best electoral year for Congressional Republicans since 1994.123 Johnson is

associated with the Tea Party movement, and is a solidly conservative Republican.124 He

opposes environmental regulations, believes that the U.S could default on its debt without

catastrophic consequences, and seems to deny the existence of man-made global warming.125

Republicans like Ron Johnson struggle to survive in swing states in presidential years, and

Johnson will have a tough time against probable Democratic nominee Russ Feingold. Feingold

is a former three term Senator who lost to Johnson in 2010.126 Feingold is known in part for the

landmark campaign finance legislation that bore his name (the now defunct McCain-Feingold

act), but also for being the only Senator to oppose the original PATRIOT act.127 Feingold has

received a John F. Kennedy profile in courage award,128 and during his time away from the

Senate, he served as a special envoy to the Great Lakes Region of Africa.129 That position

earned him a Politico feature entitled “Did Russ Feingold Just End a War?” which definitely

doesn’t hurt when you’re running for public office.130 Ron Johnson is extremely wealthy, and

should be able to raise ample money for his campaign;131 nevertheless, its hard to see him

defeating Feingold come November. Indeed, Feingold currently leads Johnson by 7 points in

RealClearPolitics’ polling average.132

123 "2010 Fall General Election." G.A.B. Canvass Reporting System (n.d.): n. pag. 2010. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. <http://www.gab.wi.gov/sites/default/files/percent%20results%20post%20recount_120710.pdf>. 124 Sargent, Greg. "Tea Party Senator Accidentally Reveals Absurdity of GOP Stance on Obamacare." Washington Post. The Washington Post, 22 Apr. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 125 "Ron Johnson on the Issues." Ontheissues.org. N.p., 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 126 "Russ Feingold's Biography." Project Vote Smart. N.p., 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 127 "Russell Feingold on the Issues." Ontheissues.org. N.p., 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 128 "John McCain and Russell Feingold Recieve the 1999 Profile in Courage Award." John F. Kennedy Presidential Library & Museum. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 129 Reid, Stuart. "Did Russ Feingold Just End a War?" POLITICO Magazine. N.p., 11 Mar. 2014. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 130 Supra at fn. 129. 131 "Ron Johnson (R-Wis)." Opensecrets RSS. Center For Responsive Politics, 2010. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 132 "Ohio Senate - Portman vs. Strickland." RealClearPolitics. N.p., 16 August 2015. Web. 23 Aug. 2015.


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Florida: With Marco Rubio vacating his Senate seat to run for president, the Florida Senate race

has descended into chaos. There are competitive primaries in both parties: the Republicans have

to choose between Rep. Ron DeSantis, Rep. David Jolly, Rep. Jeff Miller and Liet. Gov. Carlos

López-Cantera, while the Democrats get to witness a fight between Reps. Alan Grayson and

Patrick Murphy.133 While we believe that Democrats will ultimately opt for the more electable

Patrick Murphy as their candidate, we have no earthly idea what will happen in the Republican

primary. Thus, we will defer to the current poll leader David Jolly134 as our Republican

challenging Murphy in this JCC.

New Hampshire: There are two possibilities for the New Hampshire race. First, Democratic

Governor Maggie Hassan could challenge incumbent Senator Kelly Ayotte. The result would be

a competitive election. Second, Hassan could run for reelection as Governor, allowing Ayotte a

relatively easy path to a second Senate term. In this JCC, Maggie Hassan has decided to run for

Senate. The two term governor will make a formidable opponent for freshman Senator Ayotte.

Hassan spend six years in the New Hampshire Senate,135 and is running in a state that has tilted

ever-so-slightly left in the past few presidential contests. Having just won statewide elections in

2012 and 2014, Hassan is also extremely familiar to New Hampshire voters.136 Ayotte,

meanwhile, hasn’t faced the masses since 2010. Moreover, she has a relatively conservative

133 Caputo, Marc. "Poll: No Front-runner in Florida Senate Race." POLITICO. N.p., 27 July 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 134 Supra at fn. 133. 135 "About Maggie Hassan." Maggie Hassan. N.p., 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 136 "Maggie Hassan." National Governors Association. N.p., 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015.


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voting record in Congress, and opposed New Hampshire’s legalization of same-sex marriage.137

With Hassan in the the mix, this race is a toss-up.

Pennsylvania: Republican incumbent Pat Toomey will find himself in a similar situation to Ron

Johnson’s in 2016. Like Johnson, Toomey barely won his seat in 2010,138 and is a fairly

conservative senator for his state.139 Toomey was the 9th most conservative senator in the 113th

Congress according to DW nominate scores,140 which is a serious problem in a state that has

voted for Democratic presidential candidates in the last six consecutive elections.141 Toomey is

lucky to be facing a relatively weak challenger in 2016, former Congressman Joe Sestak.142 The

Democratic party establishment in Pennsylvania is not fond of Sestak.143 In 2010, Sestak had the

audacity to run for Senate against the incumbent Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter,

and to defeat him in the Democratic primary before subsequently losing to Toomey.144

Pennsylvania Democrats blame Sestak for costing them the seat, and are not wild about his 2016

senate candidacy.145 They’ve even recruited Gov. Tom Wolf’s chief-of-staff Katie McGinty into

the primary race to challenge him.146 McGinty, though, is a candidate without prior elective

experience, and a poor history in the races she’s run in the past.147 Further, Sestak has already

137 "Kelly Ayotte on the Issues." Ontheissues.org. N.p., 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 138 Levy, Marc. "Toomey Wins Specter’s Seat in Pennsylvania." Washington Times. The Washington Times, 3 Nov. 2010. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 139 Carroll,, Royce, James Lo, Jeff Lewis, Nolan McCarty, Howard Rosenthal, and Keith Poole. "DW-NOMINATE Scores With Bootstrapped Standard Errors." DW-NOMINATE SCORES PAGE. N.p., 9 Aug. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 140 Supra at fn. 139. 141 "Pennsylvania Presidential Election Voting History." 270towin. N.p., 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 142 Raju, Manu, and Kyle Cheney. "Dems in Disarray in Must-win Pennsylvania Senate Race." POLITICO. N.p., 21 May 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 143 Supra at fn. 142. 144 Supra at fn. 142. 145 Supra at fn. 142. 146 Roarty, Alex. "Democrats Score Sought-After Senate Candidate in Pennsylvania." Www.nationaljournal.com. N.p., 22 July 2015. Web. 23 Aug. 2015. 147 Supra at fn. 146.


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been campaigning for several months, and has a cash advantage.148 While the primary will likely

be close, it’s Sestak who will be the nominee in this JCC.

Ohio: GOP Senator Rob Portman has a reputation as a moderate.149 He was the first senate

Republican to support same-sex marriage,150 and DW nominate scores rank him as the 13th most

liberal Republican in the 113th Senate.151 Moreover, Portman just finished his term as the Vice-

Chair for finance of the National Republican Senatorial Committee,152 meaning that he will have

plenty of fundraising connections to leverage. Portman’s approval numbers generally hover

around +20%, solid territory for an incumbent seeking reelection.153 Indeed, Portman is so well

positioned for 2016 that there was speculation surrounding him as a potential presidential

candidate.154 However, Portman has decided to seek reelection to the senate,155 and will face

former Ohio governor Ted Strickland in 2016.156 Strickland has a strong resume, but will be 75

by the time of the general election.157 As such, Rob Portman probably will have a slight edge

heading into 2016. At the moment, though, the polls tend to show Strickland ahead.158

148 Supra at fn. 146. 149 Cillizza, Chris. "Rob Portman Would Probably Be a Good President. He’d Never Get Elected Though." Washington Post. The Washington Post, 2 Dec. 2014. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 150 Supra at fn. 149. 151 Supra at fn. 139. 152 Kraushaar, Josh. "The GOP's Rob Portman Predicament." Www.nationaljournal.com. N.p., 30 June 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 153 Rowland, Darrel. "Support for Portman Underwhelming as He Faces Re-election Campaign, Poll Finds." The Columbus Dispatch. N.p., 11 Feb. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 154 "Rob Portman - 2016 Republican Presidential Candidates." Rob Portman - 2016 Republican Presidential Candidates. N.p., 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 155 Kraushaar, Josh. "The GOP's Rob Portman Predicament." Www.nationaljournal.com. N.p., 30 June 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 156 Supra at fn. 155. 157 Graham, David A. "The Gray Party." The Atlantic. Atlantic Media Company, 25 Feb. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 158 "Ohio Senate - Portman vs. Strickland." RealClearPolitics. N.p., 15 June 2015. Web. 23 Aug. 2015.


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North Carolina: The Democrats would have a fair shot a this seat if they could find someone to

run for it. However, North Carolina’s strongest Democratic leaders seem poised to sit this race

out. Former Senator Kay Hagan has already declined to run, as has current Secretary of

Transportation and former Mayor of Charlotte Anthony Foxx.159 At the moment, the strongest

Democrat considering a run is probably Heath Shuler, a former three-term congressman and NFL

quarterback.160 He will be the Democratic nominee in this JCC. On the GOP side, incumbent

Senator Richard Burr is running for reelection. Burr is not particularly popular in North Carolina

-- his net approval rating is -11% -- but he is still favored to win reelection according to most

polls.161 A potential weak spot for Burr could be the controversial remarks he made about

veterans’ groups as ranking member of the Senate Veterans Committee in 2014.162

Colorado: Senator Michael Bennet, the Democratic incumbent, barely survived his 2010 race.

He was fortunate enough to draw a weak opponent, yet still only won his race by less than 2%.163

This would normally portend a difficult race to keep his seat. However, Bennet has become a

strong fundraiser, and his stint as Chairman of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee

raised his national profile.164 Moreover, Republicans in Colorado face the same problem as

Democrats in North Carolina: they don’t have a candidate. After top choice Mike Coffman

159 "North Carolina Dems Resume Their Search for a Senate Candidate." Daily Kos. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. <http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/06/25/1396257/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-North-Carolina-Dems-resume-their-search-for-a-Senate-candidate>. 160 Barrett, Mark. "Heath Shuler Cryptic on Possibility of Senate Bid." Citizen Times. N.p., 12 Aug. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 161 "McCrory Approval Hits New Low." Public Policy Polling. N.p., 9 July 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 162 Topaz, Jonathan. "Richard Burr: No Apology to Veterans' Groups." POLITICO. N.p., 28 May 2014. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 163 "Colorado- Election Results 2010." New York Times. N.p., 2010. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 164 Bresnahan, John, and Manu Raju. "Harry Reid Taps Michael Bennet to Run DSCC." POLITICO. N.p., 4 Dec. 2012. Web. 21 Aug. 2015.


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declared he would stay out, the GOP has struggled to find anyone viable.165 At the moment it

looks like Bill Cadman, President of the Colorado Senate, is best positioned to make a run, but

his staunch conservatism could pose problems for him in the general election.166 Nevertheless,

he’ll be the GOP nominee for this JCC.

Nevada: This seat became wide-open once Democratic Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid

decided not to seek another term. Reid’s chosen successor, Catherine Cortez Masto, will glide

to the Democratic nomination;167 she’ll battle moderate Republican Rep. Joe Heck for the seat.168

Masto is the former Attorney General of Nevada, meaning she has already won statewide

election twice.169 She thus starts out with an advantage in name recognition, and is already a

familiar face for Nevada voters.170 Additionally, Masto is Hispanic, which could be a significant

advantage in a swing-state with a growing Latino population.171 Clinton will surely do all she

can to gin up Latino turnout for her own candidacy in Nevada, and Masto stands to benefit

collaterally. Masto will also have the full backing of Harry Reid’s political machine, and can

point to a strong resume that includes time as a prosecutor and as chief of staff for Gov. Bob

Miller.172 Heck, meanwhile, is a former Brigadier General who served in Iraq.173 The race can

be expected to be fairly tight.

165 Bartels, Lynn. "Colorado GOP Seeking Right Candidate to Face Michael Bennet in 2016." The Denver Post. N.p., 8 June 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 166 Supra at fn. 165. 167 Drusch, Andrea. "Meet the Woman Harry Reid Wants to Replace Him in the Senate." Www.nationaljournal.com. N.p., 27 Mar. 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 168 DelReal, Jose. "Rep. Joe Heck Announces Nevada Senate Run." Washington Post. The Washington Post, 6 July 2015. Web. 21 Aug. 2015. 169 Supra at fn. 167. 170 Supra at fn. 167. 171 Supra at fn. 167. 172 Supra at fn. 167. 173 Supra at fn. 168.


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Expectations for Delegates

Delegates in this JCC should have two main aims. The first is to advance the goals of the

party they are part of. Each of the individuals on the list of potential characters strongly supports

the party they belong to. They have spent years working their way to the top of the party

infrastructure, and care deeply about how their party performs in the election. As such, delegates

will be expected to actively work for their committee’s benefit, both in committee and when

interacting with crisis. Generally, delegates will not be permitted to betray their party’s interests

by, for instance, defecting to the opposition party (unless the delegate has an extremely

compelling motivation to do so, and writes an excellent crisis plan).

However, members of the parties are also only human, and they have ambitions like the

rest of us. Delegates are thus encouraged to seek out ways of enhancing the power and prestige

of the characters they represent. A delegate that does well by her party while also satisfying her

character’s personal ambitions will be successful in this JCC.

We will not be allowing the use of technology during committee session, in the interest of

fairness. Delegates will be free to undertake any research they want when committee is not in

session. Nevertheless, there will likely be some restrictions placed on the kind of work that can

be done outside of committee. Model UN should be fun, and we don’t want students to feel

pressure to spent their downtime on committee-related activities.

DNC/RNC 2016 Election Background Guide

Documents

party committee

joint crisis committee

crisis staffers

stanford democrats

individual delegate

democratic national

republican national

potential actions