ITRPV Dr. Jutta Trube • Division Manager, VDMA Sector Group Photovoltaic Equipment since 12-2015 • Responsible for the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) • Vice Managing Director, VDMA Sector Association Electronics, Micro and New Energy Production Technologies • More than 20 years experience as R&D Director in vacuum equipment manufacturing • Studied Physics in Göttingen & PhD in electro technical engineering in Berlin Aug. 8th, 2020 | Dr. Jutta Trube Page 1 |
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ITRPV
Dr. Jutta Trube
• Division Manager, VDMA Sector Group Photovoltaic Equipment since 12-2015
• Responsible for the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV)
• Vice Managing Director, VDMA Sector Association Electronics, Micro and New Energy Production Technologies
• More than 20 years experience as R&D Director in vacuum equipment manufacturing
• Studied Physics in Göttingen & PhD in electro technical engineering in Berlin
PERx: p/n-type 170 µm 150 µmHJT: n-type 150 µm ≈ 120 µm HJT can use thinner wafers
Trend : kerf loss in wafering
ITRPV
Wafer: Product - market share of wafer sizes
| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 10 | Aug. 8th, 2020
Trend: mc-Si wafer size several new formats appear
Trend: mono-Si wafer size mono will faster use bigger formats
New module formats are flooding the market Standardization is required
• M2 is disappearing• G1 and M4 will keep share possible w/ upgrades of existing cell tools• M6 and larger, up to M12 will dominate future requires new tools with new fabs
* ~1.35 $ct/kWh Abu Dhabi’s 1.5 GW tender draws world record low solar bid: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/04/28/abu-dhabis-2-gw-tender-draws-world-record-solar-bid-of-0-0135-kwh/?utm_source=pv+magazine+USA&utm_campaign=ec3feac75c-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_80e0d17bb8-ec3feac75c-158960861** 3.8 $ct/kWh (3.55 €ct) avg. bid February 2020 in Germany (1000 kWh/kWp)** 5.4 $ct/kWh (5.01€ct/kWh) in avg. https://www.pv-tech.org/news/prices-fall-below-4-cent-per-kwh-mark-at-german-solar-auction*** 4.0 $ct /kWh = 0. 283 Yuan/kWh for coal fire power plant (ECOPV data in WSC webinar)****6.8 4$ct/kWh IRENA (2020), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.. ISBN 978-92-9260-244-4; www.Irena.org/download
Different calculated scenarios in 11th edition:BNEF NEO 2019 Breyer (“Electricity”) Breyer (“Broad electrification”)low: 7.6 TWp/ 9.3 PWh (22% global electricity) high: 22 TWp/ 38 PWh (69% global electricity) mix: 63 TWp/ 104PWh (69% global energy)
market peak:400+GWp / 2050 market peak: 1,400+GWp /2050 market peak:4,500+ GW/ 2050 Shipments 2019 were close to approaches!
ITRPV finding:- PV learning continues and progresses, but market will remain volatile esp. in Corona season Several 100GW markets are ahead, and can be served based on todays PV technologies Further effort is required to meet x TWp market requirements!
ITRPV will provide also in future guidance to handle the PV challenges
ITRPV
Thank youThank you
for your attention!to all contributors!
Page 27 | Aug. 8th, 2020
| Dr. Jutta Trube
Visit us at itrpv.org
Free download of roadmap and presentationSource: www.siemens.com/presse