District 32 Republican Club Presentation of Fall 2015 Survey Findings – Anne Arundel County Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College December 1, 2015 www2.aacc.edu/csli
Jan 17, 2018
District 32 Republican ClubPresentation of Fall 2015 Survey Findings – Anne Arundel County
Dan Nataf, Ph.D.Director, Center for the Study of Local
IssuesAnne Arundel Community College
December 1, 2015www2.aacc.edu/csli
Semi-annual Survey: Overview
• Survey conducted in October and March
• Contents devised by director and advisory board• Many benchmark questions (at beginning)
• Demographic questions (at end)
• Changing middle part – policy, attitudes, behaviors
• Administration: Telephone (by students) and online
• Fall completions: 589
Benchmark Questions• Most important problem facing residents
• Right/wrong direction – county, state and country
• Economic conditions – excellent, good, fair, poor
• Economic experiences/expectations
County: Most Important Question - Fall ‘07 to Fall ‘15
Fall '07 Spring '08
Fall '08 Spring '09
Fall '09 Spring '10
Fall '10 Spring '11
Fall '11 Spring '12
Fall '12 Spring '13
Fall '13 Spring '14
Fall '14 Spring '15
Fall '150
10
20
30
40
50
60
8
23
38
48
3336 36 35
48
3027
23
16 1618
12 1212 1210
87
89
10
57
8 86
1211
9 910
64
68
6 6 68
4
75
9 86
1315
1716
1210
1211
1311
9
17 1719 19
22
28
25
14
Economy EducationCrime/drugsHigh taxes
Economy
Taxes
Crime
Education
County: Most Important Question - Fall ‘15
Government ethics
Healthcare
Government waste
Government lack resources
Other answer
Unsure/No Answer
Drugs
Crime
Education
Environment
Transportation
Growth/overpopulation
Economy
Taxes – too high
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
2
2
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
9
9
10
12
14
Percent Citing
County: Right or Wrong Direction? Fall ‘00 to Fall ‘15
F '00 S '01 F '01 S '02 F '02 S '03 F '03 S '04 F '04 S '05 F '05 S '06 F '06 S '07 F '07 S '08 F '08 S ‘09 F ‘09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12 F '12 S '13 F '13 S '14 F '14 S '15 F '150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
55
62
66
60 61 62
51
58 58
53
5755
51 52 51 5052
47
52 5249 50
47
43
50 49 50 50 49
58
51
24
15
19
26
21
25
3431
24
2927 26
2927
33 32 3128 27 28 28 28
32
41
3633
3533
38
2522
2023
15 14
18
1315
12
19 1816
1820 21
16 17 17
25
21 2023 22 22
1614
1816 17
13
17
27
Right Wrong Unsure/NA
Right/Wrong Direction – County, State, Nation: Fall ‘12 to Fall ‘15
Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '13 Spring '14 Fall '14 Spring '15 Fall '150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
36
24
10
2723
27
21
36 35 3531
27
475150 49 50 50 49
58
51
Nation State County
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
47
2128
52
2621
35
48
16
60
2215
55
31
125
82
11
47
2329
45
34
20 23
59
17
Right/Wrong Direction and Party Registration
Dem Rep Unaffil.
Economic Conditions: ( excellent+good)County vs. Maryland and USA
Sp '09 Fa '09 Sp '10 Fa '10 Sp '11 Fa ‘11 Sp '12 Fa '12 Sp '13 Fa '13 Sp '14 Fa '14 Sp ‘15 Fa '150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
46 4844 45
49 4851
48 4953
5044
57
64
2730 31 32
35 3338
3330
40 40
28
4145
511 11 11 11 9
1316
12 14
2116
2721
County, State and Country - Economic Conditions Excellent+Good Spring 2009-Fall 2015
Anne Arundel County
Maryland
USA
Economic indicators, Fall 2008-Fall 2015
F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12 F '12 S '13 F '13 S '14 F '14 S '15 F '150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
58 59 5963
6063
5963 63 62
66 65
74
6662
5855 55 56 56
6358
6659 59 60
5763
5754
30 2933 32 34 35
32 3227
3229
26
40 3833
26
3531
34
27
3633
3734
15
24 2419 21 20 21
1714
19 17 16 1712 1214 16
11 14 16 14 12 11 13
4541 39
Taxes Wages Health care Salary Inc.Unemply. BetterJob Food Education
Economic indicators, Fall 2015Condition Under
$75,000
$75,000+
Under $75k-Over 75K
Signif
Hard to afford cost of food and groceries
41 18 23 .01
Health care insurance is unavailable, too expensive or inadequate
39 28 11 .01
Taxes are too high in relation to the government services provided
63 58 5 .10
Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living
56 52 4 .01
Facing the possibility of unemployment
14 11 3 .09
Found a new or better job recently
12 13 -1 .70
Hard to afford the cost of education
36 41 -5 .01
Received a salary increase or other increase in income recently
25 43 -18 .01
Economic Conditions over the next 12 Months
Better
Same Worse Unsure/NA
Total
Economic growth 28 52 12 7 100Unemployment 28 48 18 7 100
Inflation 9 42 43 7 100Your personal financial
situation22 60 13 5 100
Growth Unemployment Inflation Personal Sit.
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-3
-9
-43
-2
22
9
-46
6
2622
-38
14
7
-13
-43
23
1
-17
-52
3
15
5
-42
12118
-38
7
29
21
-26
1216
10
-34
9
Four Economic Indicators: Better Minus Worse
F11 S12 F12 S13 F13 S14 F14 S15 F15
Policy Questions• Merger of services: AA County and Annapolis• Teachers’ salaries• Federal auction of CO2 credits• Placement of group homes• Is Annapolis doing enough about sea level
rise/flooding• Ideal size of high schools• Medical marijuana• How well has County dealt with various
challenges over last year
Public Policy Agreement Agree Disagree
Can’t decide
No answe
rAnne Arundel County and Annapolis are reviewing ways to combine government services. Do you agree or disagree with these efforts?
70 18 9 4County Executive Steve Schuh has proposed to prohibit the planting, processing and sale of medical marijuana in Anne Arundel County. Some members of the County Council have proposed allowing these activities, but with a set of restrictions that limit where these activities can occur. Which position do you favor – total prohibition, or allowing with restrictions?
69 27 4 1
County teachers and the Board of Education are at impasse over contract talks. Teachers believe that they should be awarded salary increases even if it means cuts in other areas of school spending. Do you agree or disagree with the teachers?
51 33 13 2
Do you agree or disagree with the idea that the federal government establish a cap on carbon emissions, auction carbon permits to energy companies, and return all auction proceeds to citizens as a dividend?
51 30 14 5
Currently the County imposes no limits over the location of group homes for unrelated individuals with health concerns. Some have advocated restrictions on group homes’ locations. Do you agree or disagree?
45 35 15 5
Do you agree or disagree that Annapolis is doing enough to deal with flooding due to storm surges and sea level rise?
29 33 27 12
County Executive Steve Schuh has favored high schools with 1200 students; the Board of Education commissioned a study which recommended 1600 as the target high school size. Do you agree or disagree with the Board’s larger size?
25 59 12 4
Public Policy and Partisanship
0102030405060708090 84 77
64 5638 28 28
5473
43 51 60
2538
75 7356 52
4025 31
Percent Agreeing
Democrat Republican Unaffiliated
How well has County dealt with challenges during the last year?
Problem Better-Worse
Gotten better
About the
same
Gotten worse
Unsure/No
answer
Improving the local economy 10 20 63 10 7
Improving the overall quality of life in our County
5 20 57 15 7
Improving the water quality of the Bay
0 21 45 21 14
Planning growth and development
-17 18 36 35 12
Reducing the backlog in school maintenance and repair
-17 12 27 29 32
Keeping taxes low -18 14 46 32 8
Controlling crime -27 9 49 36 6
Reducing poverty and homelessness
-28 4 50 32 14
How well has County dealt with challenges by party
Keeping t
axes lo
w
Controllin
g crim
e
Impro
ving th
e loca
l eco
nomy
Impro
ving the ove
rall quality
of life in
our County
Impro
ving the w
ater q
uality of th
e Bay
Planning gro
wth and development
Reducin
g the b
acklog in
school m
aintenance an
d repair
Reducing pove
rty an
d homelessness
0102030405060708090
100
69 64
9083
7458
48 5368 63
90 85 8265 65
75
57 56
8879 73
5161 64
County dealing with Challenges: Party Percentages saying Better or Same
Democrat Republican Unaffiliated
Various Politics Questions• Trust in political parties• Job approval – county executive, governor,
president• Presidential voting intentions• Correlations between “major factor shaping
your preference” and actual candidate choices
Trust in Party by Registration
Sp '08 Fa '08 Sp '09 Fa '09 Sp '10 Fa '10 Sp '11 Fa ‘11 Sp '12 Fa '12 Sp '13 Fa '13 Sp '14 Fa '14 Sp ‘15 Fall '1515
20
25
30
35
40
45
42
37
33 34
37 37
34
31
37 37 37
3432
3432 33
3028
31
37
34
38
3230
34
38
32
23
31
39
36
33
20
27
31
21 21
17
29
32
21
17
26
37
29
2123
26
Trust in Political Parties: Spring 2008 to Fall 2015
Democrats Republicans Neither
Job approval, Spring 2014/Fall 2015
Sp '14 Fa '14 Sp '15 Fa '150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
5450
45 43
3327
56
71
3932
37 38
Percentage Saying Approve - County Executive, Governor and President
County Executive Neuman/Schuh Governor O’Malley/Hogan President Barack Obama
O'Malley
Hogan
Neuman
Schuh
NASchuh 35Hogan 15Obama 10
Hogan Schuh Obama0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
59
32
67
91
62
8
67
3936
41
29
8178
45
37
85
56
10
Job Approval by Party and Ideology, Fall 2015
Dem Rep Unaffil. Liberal Moderate Conservative
Presidential Job ApprovalFall 2007 to Fall 2015
F '07 S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12 F '12 S '13 F '13 S '14 F '14 S '15 F '150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
3530
25
5247 47
4247
3742 44 44
40 39
3237 38
3228 24
61
54
47
43
47 4045
5049 43 45
40
49
46
Presidential Job Approval - CSLI and Gallup
CSLI Gallup
Presidential Preferences
Hillary
Clinto
n
Martin
O’M
alley
Bernie
Sande
rs
Repub
lican
s
Jeb Bus
h
Ben C
arso
n
Ted C
ruz
Carly
Fiorin
a
John K
asich
Marco
Rub
io
Donald
Trum
p0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2018
2
17
1
18
1
4 46
15
Leaning in Favor of a Candidate
Presidential Preferences by Party/Ideology
Dem-Lib Dem-Mod Dem-Cons Rep-Lib Rep-Mod Rep-Cons Unaffil-Lib Unaffil-Mod Unaffil-Cons0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
35
38
17
1 1
14
18
13
45
23
0 0
3 2
36
21
54 4
37
0
26
34
7
12
23
02
4
0
13 14
58
00
5
31
0
19
25
21
5
32
Clinton Sanders Carson Rubio Trump
DemocratsRepublicans Unaffiliated
36
49 2 12 49 21 12
49
24
47
Candidates and Age Groups: Above/Below Overall Vote
18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-8
12
-5
0
6
-2
30
-4
5
-6 -6
0
-5 -4 -4
5
-2
27
-3 -3
3
-4
3
-4 -4
2
-1 -1
2
Clinton Sanders Carson Trump Rubio
Candidates and Formal Education Above/Below Overall Vote
Some College 2-4 yr Postgrad
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-9
1
8
1
-2
136
-9
32
-9
-23
Clinton Sanders Carson Trump
Candidates and Gender Above/Below Overall Vote
Clinton Sanders Carson Trump
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-8 -7
3
17
8 7
-3
-18
Male Female
Clinton Sanders Carson Trump
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
4
-3 -4
11
-4
3 4
-11
Income - Under $75k vs. $75k+
0-75 75+
Candidates and Issues
Candidates and Issues Clinton Sanders Carson Trump RubioEconomy 13.0 14.9 4.6 12.5 8.8 Foreign policy 14.4 2.6 6.0 4.0 37.4 Inequality 3.2 12.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 Immigration 3.9 0.0 3.9 7.0 0.0 Spending, debt 0.0 3.0 3.9 5.5 2.2 Constitution 0.0 1.1 6.7 0.0 4.4 Liberal 4.6 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Taxes, lower 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 Health Care 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 Business pro 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5 0.0 Womens issues 6.0 3.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 Party 0.0 0.0 2.8 2.0 0.0 Crime/safety 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Education 0.0 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Environment 1.1 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Smaller govt, less regs. 0.0 1.9 0.7 0.0 2.2 Guns 1.1 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Anti-corporate 0.0 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Abortion - anti 0.0 1.1 1.1 1.5 0.0 Conservative 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 Military 0.0 0.0 2.1 1.0 0.0 Religion - pro 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 Other 2.8 9.3 4.2 4.0 3.3 Total 49.8 72.5 47.4 49.0 58.2
Candidates and Traits Clinton Sanders Carson Trump Rubio
Leadership, competence 11.6 4.8 7.4 13.5 9.9 Honest, trustworthy, independent 5.3 5.6 9.5 3.5 8.8 Consensus builder 4.2 1.9 9.1 5.5 3.3 Fresh face, change 0.7 1.9 11.9 10.5 3.3 Experience 17.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 America first 0.0 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.4 Hard truths, frankness 0.0 1.1 3.5 9.5 0.0 Working people, cares 4.6 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Middle class 0.0 1.9 0.0 3.0 0.0 Ethical 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.0 4.4 Character 0.0 1.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 Electable 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 Intelligence 6.0 1.1 1.1 1.5 7.7 Total 50.2 27.5 52.6 51.0 41.8