Distribution Reliability Cost & Funding Task Force – Distribution Reliability Working Group– January 15, 2013 1
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Distribution Reliability Cost & Funding Task Force
– Distribution Reliability Working Group–
January 15, 2013
1
Agenda
• Introductions, DRCF task force objective and progress to date (5 minutes)
• Ameren Missouri reliability investment metrics study (5 minutes)
• A risk-based approach to predicting reliability and managing substation assets (15 minutes)
• Open Discussion (15 minutes)
2
Task Force Objective
The Distribution Reliability Cost and Funding Task Force will provide utility industry guidance for evaluating the economics of distribution reliability, including:
– Evaluating total utility costs of outages
– Determining utility cost of improving reliability
– Assessing sources/methods of reliability funding
– Determining cost/benefit relationships
– Defining processes to determine cost of maintaining reliability
– Defining processes to determine cost of improving reliability
– Assessing the impact of regulatory agencies
The guidance will be documented and made available in order to promulgate common practices for assessing reliability costs and gaining approval for funding reliability initiatives. We anticipate this document would be an appendix to P1782.
3
RELIABILITY INVESTMENT METRICS STUDY
4
Mark J. Konya, P.E.
Ameren Missouri
Reliability Investment Metrics Study
• Ameren Missouri Reliability Investment Metrics Study Conducted in 2009
– Objective - develop cost/benefit metrics for reliability expenditures
– Team-based approached utilizing various methods and resources to calculate $ per avoided customer interruption (ACI) for different programs
– Centered on evaluating reliability improvement programs
5
Reliability Investment Metrics Study
6
Reliability Improvement Programs
Reliability Investment Metrics Study
7
RESULTS
RANK
PROGRAM
1 Multiple Device
Interruptions
2 Tap Fusing
3 Circuit Performance
Improvement
4 Customers with Four or
More Outages
5 Vegetation Management
Initiatives
6 Circuit Inspections
7 Power On
N/A Device Inspections
Some programs are in the maintenance phase; significant reliability improvement will no
longer result from their execution. However reliability performance will decrease if the
programs are substantially scaled back.
Reliability Investment Metrics Study
Selected recommendations • Recognize a distinction between reliability maintenance and reliability
improvement, which have different objectives and require separate strategies
• Execute these strategies within a comprehensive framework of documented policies, programs, processes and procedures
• Prioritize improvement opportunities by ranking the relative contribution of individual circuits to system SAIFI and CAIDI
• Develop and execute a sound strategy for ensuring long-term funding of reliability improvement activities required to reach the goal.
• Use IEEE 1366-compliant measures for internal scorecards in order to reflect the requirements of 4CSR240-23.020.
8
Reliability Investment Metrics Study
Selected recommendations • Employ a Customer Interruption Cost Factor - CICF ($ / ACI) to help
assess and communicate the value of reliability improvement activities.
9
A RISK-BASED APPROACH TO PREDICTING RELIABILITY & MANAGING SUBSTATION ASSETS
10
Mark J. Konya, P.E. Rao Palakodeti, P.E.
Ameren Missouri Alstom
Aging Energy Infrastructure
A Key Challenge for Everyone!
Overview & Objectives
• Key challenge – aging energy infrastructure
• Replacement cost of substation assets over 40 years old in the $billions$!
• Need to understand impact of aging on performance in order to ensure high levels of customer service – optimize system investments
– justify funding
• Generate a risk-based plan to manage substation assets
Overview & Objectives • Important elements of a substation asset management plan
– A forecast of the number and duration of failures for important substation components in the next 10 years
– A forecast of the number and duration of failures each substation will experience in the next 10 years
– The number of customer interruptions and customer minutes of interruption resulting from equipment failures
– A prioritized list of substation projects, the total cost of the projects and the project benefits
PROJECT SCOPE, METHOD & RESULTS
Rao Palakodeti, P.E.
Project Scope • Evaluate historical performance of equipment and identify
failures as a function of service life
• Develop Hazard Curves to represent the time-dependent failure rates of important equipment
• Link hazard curves together in reliability block diagrams (RBDs) for each type of substation
• Perform Monte Carlo simulations to determine substation reliability for the next 10 years
• Calculate risk-adjusted consequences of equipment failure and add up the CMI by substation
• Rank substation projects based on descending CMI
Develop Hazard Curves
Create Reliability Block Diagram (RBD)
Link Hazard Curves With RBD
Perform Repeated Calculations
RESULTS
REPEAT CALCULATION
Results
• Substation and equipment identification
• Customers served for each substation and component
• Component criticality
• Total number of component failures
• Total number of substation failures
• Total downtime for each component
• Total downtime for each substation
• Total customer interruptions (CI) and customer minutes of interruption (CMI) for each component and substation
• Labor cost to repair each component failure
Results
• A list of substation improvement projects ranked by descending CMI
• Cost per CMI and cost per CI
• A list of substation improvement projects to be performed in each of the next 10 years
What We Learned
Substation Revised In-
Service Date Original In-
Service Date
A 2014 2021
B 2014 2020
C 2014 2021
D 2014 2021
E 2014 2019
F 2014 2021
G 2014 2017
H 2014 (>=2017)
J 2014 2018
K 2014 2019
• Results generally pass the
“reasonability” test and make
sense
• In-service dates for substation
projects significantly revised
• Costs per avoided CI generally
consistent with previous studies
• Single unit, radial feed
substations have a higher risk of
outage than dual supply, multi-
unit substations
• Some equipment performs
worse/better than experience
suggests
• Total substation CI for 10 year
period seems high – investigating
further
Highlights of the Project
Model Input:
• Substation Types Created 16
• Substation Models Created 120
• Equipment Types Created 43
• Transformer Types Created 16
• Motor Operator Types Created 19
Data Collection and Cleaning:
• Total Substations Considered 780
• Total No. of Equipment considered 6,288
• Total Equipment Models 188
• Total Job Records Reviewed >60,000
Aging Energy Infrastructure
Open Discussion
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