Dissolved Oxygen and Water Density Modeling of the ... · April 12, 2015 Above normal precipitation (+8 inches/day) and warmest on record for Northwest FL climatecenter.fsu.edu. Freshwater

Dissolved Oxygen and Water Density Modeling of the Choctawhatchee Bay: Results, Climatic influences and Future Implications

B R A N DY FO L E YM O N I TOR I N G CO O R D I NATORC H O C TAW HATCH EE BA S I N A L L I A N C E

D R . SA M U E L L A K EF E L LOWS H I P & R ES EARC H P R O GR A M CO O R D I N ATOR V I RGI N I A S EA G R A N T

Presentation Outline

Choctawhatchee Bay overview

Bay Transect study

Climate, freshwater and tidal influences

Density-dissolved oxygen interpolation

Insight and Future implications

Choctawhatchee Bay

Watershed Area

Surface Area

Tide Range

Temp. Range

Salinity Range

Chl-a - Mean (SD)

Hypoxia Index1

Choctawhatchee Bay Choctawhatchee Bay

13,856 km2

334 km2

0.3 m

5 – 35

0 – 35 PSU

4.8 (5) µg l-1

Seasonal

Choctawhatchee Bay and River Watershed

Choctawhatchee Bay and River Watershed

Bay Transect – Hydrologic Profile Monthly

◦ Began 10/02/2013 through present

◦ Interpolation: 18 months (10/02/2013 - 03/31/2015)

7 sites◦ Average distance between sites 3.5 miles

◦ Depth at sites range from 6 to 34 feet

At each site:◦ Surface and bottom Hydrolab readings (temperature,

specific conductivity, DO, pH, salinity, DO% and turbidity)

◦ Profile: temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH and salinity every 1.5 feet

◦ Surface water nutrients (N & P) and filtered chlorophyll-a

◦ Secchi disk depth and vanishing

http://estuarinebathymetry.noaa.gov/bathy_htmls/G120.html

Climate Conditions: Extreme weather during 18 month period

◦ January 2014 ◦ Below normal temperatures; “snow” in the

Panhandle

◦ April 29-30, 2014 ◦ Above normal precipitation (+11 inches/day)

◦ July 2014 ◦ Severe drought conditions

◦ August 2014◦ Extreme drought conditions

◦ December 2014 ◦ Above normal precipitation (+8 inches/day)

◦ March 2015 ◦ Extreme drought conditions

◦ April 12, 2015 ◦ Above normal precipitation (+8 inches/day)

and warmest on record for Northwest FL

climatecenter.fsu.edu

Freshwater Inflow

Choctawhatchee River ◦ Average annual sediment load: 60,242 tons/ year(Murgulet and Cook, 2010)

◦ Average annual discharge rate: 8,580 ft3/s (Northwest Florida Water Management District, 1996)

Additional freshwater sources◦ Tributaries and creeks

◦ Unconfined and confined aquifer additions

Tidal influence

SALT WEDGE ESTUARY

Abrupt stratification between the upper layer of freshwater and the bottom layer of saline water

River flow dominates system

Tidal influence has a small role in the circulation patterns.

PARTIALLY STRATIFIED ESTUARY

Tidal influence overpowers river flow and dominates the estuary circulation

Turbulent mixing induced by the current creates a moderately stratified condition

Interpolation: Density and Dissolved Oxygen

Density contours(5 kg/m³)

Profile 1.5 foot increments

Date

10/01/2013 – 03/31/2015 • Notable climate conditions

Salinity values (west)

Salinity values(middle)

Salinity values(east)

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

October 2, 2013

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

15 - 29 ppt

3 - 26 ppt

13 - 28 ppt

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

November 5, 2013

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

19 - 30 ppt

17 - 20 ppt

20 - 29 ppt

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

December 5, 2013

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

20 - 31 ppt

3 - 23 ppt

• Above average temperatures and rainfall

19 – 33 ppt

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

January 8, 2014

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

0 - 13 ppt

19 – 31 ppt

• Below normal temperatures

8 - 30 ppt

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

February 4, 2014

11 – 33 ppt

• Above average rainfall

2 - 19 ppt

9 - 31 ppt

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

March 11, 2014

• Above normal rainfall

11 – 32 ppt

0.06 – 8 ppt

10 – 30 ppt

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

April 22, 2014• Record rain event

0.03 – 0.03 ppt

7 – 30 ppt

3 – 27 ppt

* River discharge rate of 51,000 cubic feet per second

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

May 20, 2014• Above average rainfall

3 – 30 ppt

2 – 25 ppt

0.04 - 0.04 ppt

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

June 17, 2014• Above average rainfall

9 – 31 ppt

3 - 27 ppt

0.2 – 3 ppt

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

July 8, 2014• Severe drought conditions

0.4 – 6 ppt

17 – 33 ppt

9 - 30 ppt

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

August 8, 2014

• Extreme drought conditions

11 - 32 ppt

9 – 30 ppt

3 – 8 ppt

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

September 30, 2014

21 – 32 ppt

22 – 30 ppt

16 - 28 ppt

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

October 20, 2014

25 - 30 ppt

20 - 29 ppt

2 - 19 ppt

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

December 11, 2014• Above normal rainfall

8 - 21 ppt

23- 34 ppt

25 - 31 ppt

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

January 16, 20152 – 19 ppt

15 – 33 ppt

16 – 35 ppt

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

February 11, 2015

• Below normal rainfall

0.5 – 5 ppt

20 – 34 ppt

16 - 33 ppt

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

March 6, 2015• Below normal rainfall

3 - 8 ppt

19 – 30 ppt

22 - 33 ppt

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

March 31, 2015• Above normal precipitation

0.8 – 13 ppt

17 - 29 ppt

24 – 33 ppt

Lessons Learned and Future ImplicationsFirst visual model of the Choctawhatchee Bay

Choctawhatchee River ◦ Influence on circulation

◦ tidal influence/interference

Seasonal influence◦ Hypoxia

Exploration of the Choctawhatchee Bay◦ Hydrodynamic model

◦ Stratification and hypoxia

◦ System flushing◦ Wind dynamics

Climate influence◦ Water resources

◦ Management

Future products◦ Time series model (Dr. Lake)

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

October 2, 2013

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

November 5, 2013

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

December 5, 2013

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

• Above average temperatures and rainfall

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

January 8, 2014

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

• Below normal temperatures

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

February 4, 2014• Above average rainfall

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

March 11, 2014

• Above normal rainfall

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

April 22, 2014• Record rain event

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

May 20, 2014• Above average rainfall

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

June 17, 2014• Above average rainfall

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

July 8, 2014• Severe drought conditions

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

August 8, 2014

• Extreme drought conditions

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

September 30, 2014

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

October 20, 2014

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

December 11, 2014• Above normal rainfall

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

January 16, 2015

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

February 11, 2015

• Below normal rainfall

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

March 6, 2015• Below normal rainfall

Month

Year 2013 2014 2015

09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04

March 31, 2015• Above normal precipitation

Brandy [email protected]

850-200-4171