dissertation work

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THE UNIVERSITY OF HULL

SCHOOL OF POLITICS, PHILOSOPHY AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

Which Terrorist Attack is most likely to occur in the United Kingdom?

being a dissertation submitted for the Degree of

BA War and Security Studies

Jamie Breen

April 2014

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Contents

Preface

1. New or Old terrorism.

2. Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear terrorist attack against the UK.

3. Suicide bombing attacks against populated areas.

4. Terrorist attacks against UK Armed Forces personnel.

5. Terrorist attacks against the UK transport system.

ConclusionBibliography

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Detailed Contents

Preface

1. New or Old Terrorism

New or Old Terrorism: An analysisRadicalisation: A UK problem

2. Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear terrorist attack against the UK.

Chemical terrorist attack Biological terrorist attackRadiological terrorist attackNuclear terrorist attackRisk analysis

3. Suicide bombing attacks against populated areas.

Suicide bombing: A definitionSuicide bombing: An analysisSuicide bombing: A UK caseSuicide bombing: Motivation behind the 7/7 suicide attacks.

4. Terrorist attacks against UK Armed Forces personnel.

Terrorism on our streets: The analysis of the Woolwich attack.

5. Terrorist attacks against the UK transport system.

Maritime Terrorism: A future terrorist threat

Conclusion Bibliography

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PREFACE

This dissertation aims to analyse and conclude in a perspective manner the possible

strategic capabilities and methods of attack, in which terrorist organisations in the UK

might use. In day to day life we all focus on what we presume to be the main terrorist

threat, in many cases this is bombings. In the history of terrorism within the United

Kingdom there has remained this type of threat throughout 20th and 21st Century. This

threat has predominantly come from the IRA, which originated through Britain’s

colonial hold of Ireland. This dissertation, however, proposes to analyse and

conclude the current and future threats in a post 9/11 era from terrorist organisations

such as Al-Qaida and their affiliated groups. Though the case for terrorism from Irish

based terrorist organisations such as the IRA remains a strong academic subject, the

need to understand this new terrorist phenomenon is vital. This dissertation seeks to

determine whether there has been a strategic shift in the terrorist mindset in how they

focus their efforts of attack and whether this will be the case at present and in the

future within the UK. There is a variety of methods that terrorist organisations can use

to attack the UK, some being more likely than others, which is something this

dissertation looks to address. Home grown radicalisation has become a major issue for

the UK and is linked to this new threat. Therefore, it is vital to understand how and

why elements of the UK population are at threat from and are being radicalised. As

explained, Britain is not new to terrorism, but is this new threat the same as the last?

A comparison of old and new terrorism will determine whether the current terrorist

threat can be compared to the last, which will also help understand the current

strategic mind set of terrorist organisations. This dissertation will focus on a variety of

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possible scenarios and strategies terrorist organisations may seek to implement by

looking at openly available information to gain a perspective analysis of the current

and future terrorist threats that face the United Kingdom.

The justification for this topic is to add to the current understanding of

terrorism in an academic way. This will allow the reader to draw a perspective

analysis of the current threats that the UK faces and in what way. Understanding the

terrorist mindset and the threats we face from terrorist organisations is vital to our

understanding of how to counter this new terrorist phenomena. Since 2001 the UK has

been active in countering terrorism in partnership with other nations globally. This

has brought about uncertainty over our national security and increased exposure from

new terrorist threats that we are still trying to understand. This dissertation will

attempt to address some of the key issues we face in the UK from terrorist

organisations. The ever changing nature of the threats we face is further justification

to why we must keep expanding our knowledge of terrorism. With global expansion,

increased international relations and technological advances, like us, terrorist

organisations will look to adapt and change to strategically meet their aims and

objectives. Therefore it is vital that we continue to increase our knowledge and

understanding and keep pace with the ever changing global threats.

The outcome of this research will be determined by using readily available

information of non-empirical value and will be a perspective analytical review of

historical and current literature. Due to the very nature of the subject in question, there

are limitations in obtaining certain information that may be of a sensitive nature and

vital to the security of the United Kingdom. Therefore, the conclusion of this research

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will be of a perspective nature and based on the information readily available for

analytical discourse. Each assessment will be carried out in a qualitative manner

based on likelihood, which is based on the analysed information. Likelihood that such

an attack can occur, likelihood based on occurrences and when it is likely an attack

will occur.

The history of terrorism within the United Kingdom is very broad and has a

regular historical foundation. Acts of terrorism occurred in large numbers in the pre

9/11 era, and this phenomenon has continued to be the subject of debate since the

terrorist attacks on the World Trade Centre in New York on September 11th 2001. The

main focus of terrorism and the concentration of attacks against the UK came from

the IRA during The Trouble era during the 1970’s and 1980’s, due to Britain’s

sovereignty hold over Northern Ireland. Though this threat is still active, the peace

settlement has allowed for relative peace between dissident republicans and the

British government. Acts of terrorism from this organisation are now only a mere

future possibility, not a certainty.

In 2001, the United Kingdom offered its unwavering support to the United

States after the September 11th attacks on the World Trade Centre. This support would

embroil the UK in two major conflicts, a decade from the threat of domestic terrorism

and cost the lives of hundreds of British soldiers and civilians. Not including acts of

terrorism by the IRA since 2001, there have been a number of high profile domestic

terror attacks. On the July 7th 2005, a number of simultaneous attacks occurred across

the city of London killing a large number of civilians. These attacks marked the

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biggest single terrorist attack in the history of UK terrorism.1 This is something that

will be analysed with greater respect and detail during this dissertation. On June 30th

2007 there was a terrorist attack against Glasgow airport in which a car was driven

into the airport, and exploded.2 This attack was the first of its kind in mainland UK in

which a car was used to carry an explosive into a transport hub, with the intent on

causing mass death and destruction. On May 22nd 2013 an off duty British soldier,

known as Lee Rigby was killed in a savage and barbaric attack on the street of

London. Lee Rigby was knocked down by a car, dragged in to the street and

butchered at the hands of two men, Michael Adebolajo and Michael Adebowale.3 This

attack shocked the world and the British public; this was due to the severe shock of

the attack that had occurred. The two men who carried out the attack had clearly been

radicalised and showed extremist views toward the UK armed forces and the UK

government.4 This is a clear sign that there is a major threat from UK based

radicalisation, something that this dissertation looks to address in detail. On June 30th

2012, six men from Birmingham were arrested on route to carry out an act of

terrorism, with a car full of explosives.5 The intent from the six men was to attack an

English Defence League rally with the aim of causing mass casualties. According to

the police the devices certainly had the ability to cause serious consequences to those

who were close by, if they were successfully detonated.6 What all these terrorist acts

1 The Stationery Office. (2006). Report of the Official Account of the Bombings in London on 7th July 2005. . 1 (1), p1-36.2 BBC. (2007). Blazing car crashes into airport. Available: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6257194.stm. Last accessed 21st April 2014.3 Dodd, V. (2013). Man killed in deadly terror attack in London street.Available: http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/may/22/police-respond-serious-incident-woolwich. Last accessed 21st April 2014.4 Dodd, V. (2013). Man killed in deadly terror attack in London street.Available: http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/may/22/police-respond-serious-incident-woolwich. Last accessed 21st April 2014.5 Casciani, D. (2013). Six admit planning to bomb English Defence League rally. Available: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22344054. Last accessed 21st April 2014.6 Casciani, D. (2013). Six admit planning to bomb English Defence League rally. Available: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22344054. Last accessed 21st April 2014.

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have in common, is that all the terrorists originated from the UK. All had links to

extremist preachers and all had religious and ethnic ideologies at the core of their

reasoning. An analysis of these case and possible future attacks will be analysed and

addressed throughout this dissertation.

The statistical evidence behind terrorism in the United Kingdom shows the

extent of the new terrorist threat. Since 2001, there has been a large increase in

terrorism related arrests within the UK, with 2,547 subsequent arrests being made.7

What this shows is that the phenomenon of terrorism in the UK is very active, real

and poses a major threat to the security of the United Kingdom. This also shows there

is a consistent threat. This is because if we break down the figure over the period from

2001 to 2013, when the statistics are active, there is an average of 195 terrorist related

arrests every year. Within the United Kingdom there are currently over 120 persons

being held in prison after being convicted of terrorism.8 Although this figure is small

in comparison to the amounts that are arrested over the past decade, it remains a

significant one, and one which emphasises the threats we face. Out of the 120

terrorists being held, 26 are extremists that exploit their radical views upon others.9

This provides the means to radicalise others into carrying out terrorist attacks. Those

who offer their radical views in this way do not carry out attacks themselves but

persuade others to do so. This threat, although not the direct attack, therefore is just as

much a threat to the UK as actual terrorist attacks. This is because these people are the

7 Home Office. (2014). Statistical News Release. Available: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/286461/police-powers-terror-q3-2013snr.pdf. Last accessed 21st April 2014.8 Home Office. (2014). Statistical News Release. Available: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/286461/police-powers-terror-q3-2013snr.pdf. Last accessed 21st April 2014.9 Home Office. (2014). Statistical News Release. Available: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/286461/police-powers-terror-q3-2013snr.pdf. Last accessed 21st April 2014.

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philosophers, the speakers and the peers to such people who deem it their Islamic duty

to cause death and destruction on their behalf.

CHAPTER ONE

AN ERA OF NEW OR OLD TERRORISM

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To understand fully the extent of the threat to the United Kingdom from the

phenomenon of terrorism, we must first understand what type of terrorism the UK has

been exposed to in recent times. There is a constructive academic debate about what

is ‘old’ and what is ‘new’ terrorism. This chapter seeks to address which type the UK

is now exposed too strategically from current terrorist organisations. An analysis of

both discourses will be addressed by taking into account the historical concepts of

terrorist attacks in the UK past and present, but drawing similarities from the global

terrorism strategic thought. The reason that this will be the case is because for us to

understand whether there is a change, we must access the historical context of the

tactics used directly in the UK. This is so we can understand if there has been a shift

towards a more contemporary form of terrorism.

New or old terrorism: an analysis

When analysing terrorism in a historical context there are both differences and

similarities in what is said to be ‘old’ and what is ‘new’. To understand them, there

needs to be a factual comparison of terrorism in the UK to the global image of

terrorism. One of the fundamentals that both concepts, old and new terrorism have in

common is that they both use violence as a means to an end.10 The difference then in

the case old and new terrorism is that the targets and the ideologies behind why they

conduct terrorism looks to have changed. Terrorism in the UK came from the IRA

over the 20th Century, their aims and objectives were clear and understood. That is,

the old form of terrorist was limited, they had set goals and aims that they believed

10 Neumann, R (2009). Old & New Terrorism. Cambridge: Polity Press. p1-14.

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could be achieved. They did not seek anything but what they set out to gain, but could

be coerced in to accepting some form of change.11 In contrast to this, today, the aims

and objectives of terrorist organisations are wholly unclear. New forms of terrorists

are not connected to the political system; they do not seek or wish influence.12

Therefore, it is often hard to determine what contemporary terrorist organisations

wish to gain from their actions in the long term. Their goals look short sighted and

merely look to cause as much death and destruction as possible. New terrorism, in

dissimilarity to old, looks to focus itself upon ideology, not political objectives.13 This

is ultimately a key difference between the two.

When we look at the attacks that have occurred in the UK prior and post 9/11,

we can see there is a clear change in tactics from the retrospective terrorist

organisations that operate in the confines of the UK. The IRA, with their political

motives, would attack infrastructure and the security services in Northern Ireland and

mainland UK, trying to minimize civilian casualties. They did this to keep the civilian

population on their side while maintaining pressure on the Government of the UK,

because they understood this to be vital to their strategy.14 Though the IRA did kill

civilians during their campaign against the Government of the UK, this was not there

means to an end. New forms of terrorism use maximum violence against civilians as

a strategy. This is because new forms of terrorist have no desire to differentiate

between this and do not concern themselves with respect for human life.15 If we look

closely at the terrorist attacks in the west over the last decade, this has been the case. 11 Crenshaw, M. (2007). The Debate over “New” vs. “Old” Terrorism.Center for International Security and Cooperation Stanford University . 1 (1), p1-43.12 Crenshaw, M. (2007). The Debate over “New” vs. “Old” Terrorism.Center for International Security and Cooperation Stanford University . 1 (1), p1-43.13 Hoffman, B (2006). Inside Terrorism. Newyork: Columbia University Press. p63-81.14 Neumann, R (2009). Old & New Terrorism. Cambridge: Polity Press. p1-14.15 Crenshaw, M. (2007). The Debate over “New” vs. “Old” Terrorism.Center for International Security and Cooperation Stanford University . 1 (1), p1-43.

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Since and including 9/11, if we take in to account 7/7 and the Glasgow car bombing,

all of which had the desire to cause mass casualties at the core of their strategy. This

is clearly something which undoubtedly stands out in the debate between old and new

terrorism with regard to the UK. There is also a difference in the sheer lethality of

current attacks, the religious and ideological motives in which they are conducted

with new terrorism.16 These are clearly the fundamental foundations with new forms

of terrorism, which differentiate them from the terrorism that the UK was accustomed

to.

Another key fundamental difference that can be distinguished between old

and new terrorism, is that old terrorism can be seen to be geographically localised,

while new terrorism is more far reaching on a globalised scale.17 What this new

terrorism is then, is transnational; it does not confine itself to one single location, to

one single focus, but is far reaching in its influence. What this makes clear in the case

of the UK, is that the evolution from an old style of terrorism, that was based around

nationalist values and political goals did not evolve into this new phenomenon

geographically. The terrorist threat which the UK faces is transnational, and derives

from the Middle Eastern forms of terrorism, which use violence against the civilian

populations to strike fear. An example of the evolutionary origins of transnational

terrorism is the Iranian death squads that conducted cross border attacks against

Israeli civilians within Israel. Another example of the evolution of terrorism, but only

merely confirmed this trend of mass casualty terrorism, is 9/11. The 9/11 terrorist

attacks in the United States of America confirmed the gradual strategy change that

16 Neumann, R (2009). Old & New Terrorism. Cambridge: Polity Press. p1-14.17 Townshend, C (2002). Terrorism A Very Short Indroduction. Newyork: Oxford University Press. p1-96.

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terrorists preferred to implement.18 Their attacks merely confirmed this trend. Up until

the point of 9/11 the West had not experienced transnational terrorism of this kind.

Terrorist groups in the West originated domestically, and were limited in their

approach. For example the IRA in the UK and the ETA in Spain are both domestic

terrorist organisations; predominately operating in the confines of the respective

countries. Both had nationalist values, both were fighting hegemonic states in a near

conventional manner. Today’s terrorist organisations are predominantly from the

Middle East and rogue African states that attack and influence others to attack nations

that they are not affiliated too. This is because new terrorists do not recognise state

structure, and have no will to change it. Religious ideologies are at the core of their

motives.19 The problem the UK has because of this is that new terrorists cannot be

coerced if their only focus is spiritual. Though there is the ability of States to attempt

to limit the threat of attack by newly formed domestic terrorist groups who are of the

same ideology. What this means is that terrorist groups are able to recruit and operate

more freely than the previous domestic terrorist organisations because they are

operating internationally and beyond control of one single state. The foundations of

this new form of terrorism originate because of the link between the

transnationalisation of terrorism, their methods and strategies. There is also a link

between the radicalisation of UK citizens because of their shared ideologies which

new terrorism is associated with.

Radicalisation: A definition

There is no universally accepted definition of what ‘radicalisation’ is, in the sphere of

academia. The term is debated, argued and applied in a variety of different manners

18 Neumann, R (2009). Old & New Terrorism. Cambridge: Polity Press. p1-14.19 Crenshaw, M. (2007). The Debate over “New” vs. “Old” Terrorism.Center for International Security and Cooperation Stanford University . 1 (1), p1-43.

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because of the heterogeneous nature of the term. For the purpose of this research,

‘radicalisation’ will be the change in one’s nature and view point in which a change in

ideology has been accepted. The ideological change is of a violent, extremist nature

that seeks to use the application of violence as a weapon to create fear and terror

against those opposed to the same ideological views.20

Radicalisation: A UK problem

Contemporary radicalisation is focused on embracing “an anti-liberal, fundamentalist,

anti-democratic and regressive agenda”21 according to Dr Alex Schmid author and

researcher at the International centre for counter terrorism at The Hague. Because this

is the case, the UK will always be the victim of radicalisation domestically and

globally. This is due to the UK being a democratic state that applies politically liberal

views on many issues such as gay rights, multiculturalism and is of multi-faith

society. These societal traits go against what Dr Schmid states are the key

fundamental views of radicalisation and the ideology in which they represent. This

shows that those who pursue and seek to radicalise others are totalitarian. They wish

to dictate the structures of society through violence and fear.22 Therefore, the people

who are radicalised become non-democratic and do not wish to be part of the

structures of a democratic liberal society such as the UK, as they do not believe in its

diverse nature.23 Because of this, they do not wish to be part of society as they see it in

20 Dr Schmid, P. (2013). Radicalisation, De-Radicalisation, Counter-Radicalisation: A Conceptual Discussion and Literature Review. ICCT Research Paper March 2013. 1 (1), p6-8.21 Dr Schmid, P. (2013). Radicalisation, De-Radicalisation, Counter-Radicalisation: A Conceptual Discussion and Literature Review. ICCT Research Paper March 2013. 1 (1), p6-8.22 Home Affairs Committee . (2010). Nineteenth Report of Session 2010. Roots of violent radicalisation. 1 (2), p7-8.23 Dr Schmid, P. (2013). Radicalisation, De-Radicalisation, Counter-Radicalisation: A Conceptual Discussion and Literature Review. ICCT Research Paper March 2013. 1 (1), p6-8.

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its current state. They use the application of violence as a tactic to try to coerce

change that meets with their own visions.

Radicalisation also occurs because those with alternative views do not have

faith in the current situation and do not find it to fulfil their needs. Many of these

needs are associated with religious factors and are a fundamental reason to why

radicalisation is taking place today.24 This is because many of the people who are

being radicalised are sympathisers to what they see as the persecution of their Muslim

brothers and sisters by the UK and the West.25 This can be regarded as one of the

main reasons that there has been a rise in domestic radicalisation in the UK. Many

Muslims feel a cultural and religious connection to others of the same faith, putting

nationalism behind religious affiliation.26 This is why so many radicalised terrorists

are filled with so much hate towards the UK and the West and have no objections to

committing such brutal terrorist acts such as 7/7 or the attack against British soldier

Lee Rigby on the streets of London. Because they have this view point, it is not hard

to understand why so many British Muslims are becoming radicalised if we take into

account the UK’s overseas military operations over the last decade since 2001. The

UK has been part of three major conflicts, Afghanistan in 2001, Iraq in 2003 and

Libya in 2011, which were consistently portrayed in the media daily. All of these

conflicts have one major commonality; they are all predominately Muslim countries.

This leaves the UK at risk of domestic radicalisation because of their media coverage

that could be perceived as attacks against innocent Muslims. This is because the

“effects on daily lives are more likely to become a root cause of terrorism when

24 European Commission . (2008). Radicalisation, Recruitment and the EU Counter-radicalisation Strategy. Transnational Terrorism, Security & the Rule of Law. 1 (1), 10-15.25 Forest, F, J ETL. (2006). The Making of a Terrorist. Root Causes. 3 (3), p326 Home Affairs Committee . (2010). Nineteenth Report of Session 2010. Roots of violent radicalisation. 1 (2), p7-8.

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people feel the immediate, harsh, highly visible hand of either an occupying power or

a repressive regime”27 when we take into account that all Muslims affiliate themselves

through their faith to each other before nationalism, the UK is seen as both in this

regard. Firstly, they see the UK as an aggressive occupier of a Muslim land. Secondly,

they feel that the UK is a repressive state in which their Muslim brothers and sisters

are the victims. The oppression by the west of the Muslim world is seen as a clear

influence into why so many Muslims are becoming radicalized.28 This therefore is

clearly the catalyst to UK domestic radicalization and the problem the UK faces due

to its current political stance.

One of the major root causes of radicalisation, according to James Forest,

exploring root causes of terrorism. Is that there is an unequal distribution of power

globally, notably between the Middle East and the Western powers.29 What he means

by this is that the West is seen to have an unfair share of global power; which favours

them in the global sphere of influence. Because this is the case, and the Middle East is

predominately of an Islamic faith and the West Christianity, they feel their views and

wished are oppressed by an outside aggressor due to ideologies. The situation that

then occurs is an ‘us versus them’ scenario in which they seek to influence a power

change through acts of terrorism to meet with the ideological position.30 This

ultimately leads to resentment and anger, with the onset of radicalisation taking place.

If we take into account the fundamentals for radicalization, the UK’s liberal stance,

operations in Muslim lands and its support of The United States over the past decade.

This has increased resentment and anger towards the UK domestically and globally.

27 Forest, F, J ETL. (2006). The Making of a Terrorist. Root Causes. 3 (3), p3328 Forest, F, J ETL. (2006). The Making of a Terrorist. Root Causes. 3 (3), p3329 Forest, F, J ETL. (2006). The Making of a Terrorist. Root Causes. 3 (3), p330 Forest, F, J ETL. (2006). The Making of a Terrorist. Root Causes. 3 (3), p3

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Which has led to an increase in domestic radicalisation, these are the clear origins of

UK radicalisation.

Chapter summary

Old terrorism looks to focus itself upon nationalist ideals, whereas new forms of

terrorism, globally and in the UK, have religious origins that focus on ideology.

Before 9/11 as presented in this chapter, the UK faced a terrorist threat from the IRA

with their deep lying reasons being nationalist in origin. Today’s terrorist are driven

by religious ideologies, and view differences on how they believe society should be,

as seen in recent attacks in the UK.

Radicalisation is occurring in the UK because of our social diversity and our

liberal views. The UK’s global influential position also means that radicalization will

take place because of the pursuit of power by extremists. The reason we now see a

new form of terrorism in the UK is because there is a clear link between the

transnationalisation of terrorism and domestic radicalisation. This is because of faith

over nationalist identity that can be seen in Muslim communities in the UK and

globally which often leads to sympathy of their Muslim brothers and sisters that can

untimely be the catalyst for radicalisation.

CHAPTER TWO

CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL, RADIOLOGICAL & NUCLEAR TERRORISM

WITHIN THE UK

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During this chapter, a perspective analysis of the literature relating to CBRN

terrorism, that can be associated to the United Kingdom and those organisations who

actively seek to carry out such attacks, will be assessed. CBRN capabilities, from

intelligence sources globally show that such weapons vastly appeal to organisations

such as Al-Qaida.31 Therefore, it is vital to the outcome of this research that CBRN

terrorism is widely and strongly diagnosed and the capability of such organisations to

target the United Kingdom be assessed in detail. There is also great emphasis on

looking into CBRN terrorism, due to the risk of a high casualty outcome from such an

attack.32 This is because it would not only prove catastrophic to human life but to the

economy of the targeted city. Such an attack would increase large scale fear among

the population, anticipating another possible attack or the effects of the last, on

themselves mentally and physically. Religious, fanatical and jihadist organisations

which Al-Qaida is represented by all three fractions, regard violence of this type, that

is the use of weapons such a CBRN to be not only justified but it also meets their

overall strategy of mass casualties.33 This poses a major issue to the United Kingdom

because it has a large Muslim population, which has grown disenchanted by the UK’s

overseas policy and operations in Muslim populated countries such as Afghanistan

and Iraq in recent years. Therefore a higher risk of radicalisation internally of well

educated persons could help turn Al-Qaida’s intent on using CBRN weapons into

reality. Al-Qaida’s intent on gaining such capabilities has never been under estimated.

This chapter will break down CBRN into its individual capability type and analyse

Al-Qaida’s intent and capability to use such a threat against the United Kingdom in

31 Coburn, A ETL. (2011). Terrorism Risk in the post-9/11 Era 10-year Retrospective. 1 (1), p2-28.32 Coburn, A ETL. (2011). Terrorism Risk in the post-9/11 Era 10-year Retrospective. 1 (1), p2-28.33 Coburn, A ETL. (2011). Terrorism Risk in the post-9/11 Era 10-year Retrospective. 1 (1), p2-28.

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the post 9/11 era. Due to the complexity and usage of such weapons having a limited

usage, it will be beneficial to use examples from around the world that are likely both

strategically and physically able to happen in a similar way in the United Kingdom.

Once an academic perspective of the literature and readily available information has

been analysed and assessed. There will be a risk assessment to determine the

possibility of such an attack occurring in the United Kingdom.

Chemical terrorist attacks

Chemical terrorism refers to the use of toxic chemicals as a weapon by terrorist

organisations. Chemicals are dispersed deliberately and with the intent of killing,

injuring of persons and cause the disruption of a target.

Globally there is a major threat of chemical weapons being used by terrorist

organisations in an act of aggression. This is because chemical materials are readily

available in society and can be obtained with relative simplicity.34 Chemicals such as

chlorine would account for this and can be obtained in large quantities. There have

been a number of chemical attacks that have occurred globally that can be related to

the possibility of a chemical attack happening in the United Kingdom. The chemical

attack that will be referred to in this case is the chemical attack in Japan against the

Tokyo subway system orchestrated by Aum Shinrikyo. The reason this attack is so

significant and why it can be related to the possibility of a chemical attack occurring

in the United Kingdom comes down to a number of key factors. Firstly, like Japan,

the United Kingdom has a major subways system running throughout one of its major

cities, in this case, London. Therefore a chemical can spread rapidly in the confine

34 Coburn, A ETL. (2011). Terrorism Risk in the post-9/11 Era 10-year Retrospective. 1 (1), p2-28.

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passages of the subway’s system, the trains and the platforms as it did with the attack

in Japan.35 This would have an unprecedented impact against the heavily populated

subway system. Terrorist organisations and the vast networks associated with Al-

Qaida who believe in their radical ideology are focused on mass casualty outcomes.36

This is significant because the London subway system is one of, if not the busiest in

the world and one of the most populated areas in the city of London, an attack would

almost undoubtedly cause mass casualties. A scenario of this kind meets the strategic

thought of terrorist groups. Secondly, the United Kingdom, like Japan, has a major

University system that has vast chemistry and biotech fields that can further one’s

knowledge. The perpetrators of the chemical attack on the Tokyo subways system that

developed the sarin gas devices all had an in depth knowledge of biochemistry and

medicine which aided them in the development of such weapons. This is something

which is seen as a vital attribute in successfully making such devices.37 What this

allows for, is the ability to train in the necessary means to adapt their acquired

knowledge in chemistry and biotech fields to the extent of developing chemical based

weapons in a safer way than someone who has no knowledge in the required fields

and to a greater success. Thirdly, like Japan, the United Kingdom has a major

chemical and pharmaceutical industry. The perpetrators of the Tokyo attack set up

false companies to acquire the chemicals they required to develop the chemical

devices with ease and without question, as they were all well educated graduates in

their chosen fields of knowledge.38 This is of importance because trained citizens of

35 CSIS. (2013). Chemical and Biological Terrorism: The Threat According to the Open Literature. Available: https://www.csis-scrs.gc.ca/pblctns/thr/cbtrrrsm06-eng.asp. Last accessed 21th April 2014.36 Coburn, A ETL. (2011). Terrorism Risk in the post-9/11 Era 10-year Retrospective. 1 (1), p2-28.37 CSIS. (2013). Chemical and Biological Terrorism: The Threat According to the Open Literature. Available: https://www.csis-scrs.gc.ca/pblctns/thr/cbtrrrsm06-eng.asp. Last accessed 21th April 2014.38 CSIS. (2013). Chemical and Biological Terrorism: The Threat According to the Open Literature. Available: https://www.csis-scrs.gc.ca/pblctns/thr/cbtrrrsm06-eng.asp. Last

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the United Kingdom who are associated with terrorist organisations but well trained in

such fields could also manipulate the system. Then obtain the necessary means in

developing such weapons without a need to declare their activity, were they qualified

in certain job roles and registered business holders of biotech companies. Finally, the

attack in Japan was by an organisation that was both fanatical and religious. They

didn’t believe in the system they lived in and did not recognise the actions of the

legitimate government.39 Both of which, organisations such as Al-Qaida affiliations

both UK and overseas groups have openly stated on many occasions, reiterating their

hatred towards the actions of the UK Government on foreign policy and military

activity. All the people who had trained in the fields of chemistry, pharmaceutical

science and biotech fields had been radicalised by the terrorist organisation in Japan.40

In the United Kingdom there are a number of key individuals who preach a

radical Islamic philosophy which is followed by a large number of enthusiastic people

in many professions. What these fundamentals represent is a strategic foundation of

how to achieve such an attack step by step, a basic strategic module of sorts. This is

something military organisations, businesses and individuals do as normality. The

chemical attack on the Tokyo subway system is also known to represent the first

strategic use of a chemical in a terrorist attack against a population and State. Al-

Qaida representatives in the United Kingdom could use the sarin attack in Tokyo, the

methods in which they strategically and successfully conducted the attack as the

accessed 21th April 2014.39 CSIS. (2013). Chemical and Biological Terrorism: The Threat According to the Open Literature. Available: https://www.csis-scrs.gc.ca/pblctns/thr/cbtrrrsm06-eng.asp. Last accessed 21th April 2014.40 CSIS. (2013). Chemical and Biological Terrorism: The Threat According to the Open Literature. Available: https://www.csis-scrs.gc.ca/pblctns/thr/cbtrrrsm06-eng.asp. Last accessed 21th April 2014.

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foundation for their own chemical style attack in the UK and London as the target city

because of the similarities.

The problem that UK faces from the threat of chemical terrorism is that

Government of the United Kingdom can only attempt to minimize the threat unlike

other CBRN capabilities, which it can control to a higher degree.41 The poses a major

issue to the security services because their overall security strategy becomes limited in

this case due to the nature of this threat and the means in which are needed to carry it

out. Chemical formulas are often open sources throughout the internet. The only

requirement is a trained person in a biotech or chemistry field.42 The problem with this

is that by the time the authorities have located and shut down sites that offer terrorist

networks in the UK the ability to access such information, there is already many more

being set up, therefore it becomes ineffective overall. Even as early as the 7/7 attacks

in 2005, the UK security services were very much over stretched in their pursuit of

UK based terrorist individuals and organisations.43 This poses a major flaw in security

because although the authorities have the ability to monitor certain individuals they

are unable to monitor every possible terrorist who seeks to carry out criminal

activities that could lead to eventual attacks using chemical weapons.

Biological Terrorist attacks

When we refer to the threat from biological terrorism or bioterrorism, we refer to the

use of such weapons purposely by terrorist organisations to cause serious harm to the

general public. Such weapons are generalised as biological agents such as anthrax,

41 Beahm, G (2004). Straight talk about terrorism. Virginia: Brasseys's, Inc. p11-18.42 Beahm, G (2004). Straight talk about terrorism. Virginia: Brasseys's, Inc. p18-29.43 Newstatesman. (2009). 7/7 report: MI5 desperately overstretched.Available: http://www.newstatesman.com/2009/05/track-khan-report-mi5-decision. Last accessed 21st April 2014.

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tularemia, botulism, smallpox and other virus like agents. These agents could be

released in a variety of ways to inflict large scale health issues.44

There are a number of reasons to why terrorist organisations within the United

Kingdom might seek to strategically use this type of capability. This would be to

enforce open fear and hysteria among the public and to cause possible mass

casualties.45 This would effectively put pressure on the UK government politically

because the public would seek reassurances over their safety which the authority

could not guarantee. Biological terrorism therefore does pose a major threat to the

UK. The need for such weapons is also on the increase globally by terrorist networks.

This is because unlike trying to acquire and strategically deliver other state of the art

or more conventional weapons, this capability is easier to transport and less likely to

be detected by the authorities.46 The threat from biological terrorism in that case is

very much real and serious. The serious extent of this threat is backed up by western

intelligence services findings that Al-Qaida is actively seeking persons who have

knowledge in biochemistry.47 If such groups were to succeed and pass this vital

knowledge on to UK based national, this would be a pivotal step forward for UK

based terrorist networks in acquiring and delivering such a weapon. What this shows

is that Al-Qaida and the networks that follow the same ideology have a strong intent

on gaining such capabilities, a long term strategic plan and focus.48 If successful, the

UK would be at risk from mass biological attacks that could have unlimited outcomes.

It is also clear that the authorities in the UK would have a very serious incident to deal 44 Beahm, G (2004). Straight talk about terrorism. Virginia: Brasseys's, Inc. p18-29.45 Coburn, A ETL. (2011). Terrorism Risk in the post-9/11 Era 10-year Retrospective. 1 (1), p2-28.46 Beahm, G (2004). Straight talk about terrorism. Virginia: Brasseys's, Inc. p18-29.47 Coburn, A ETL. (2011). Terrorism Risk in the post-9/11 Era 10-year Retrospective. 1 (1), p2-28.48 Coburn, A ETL. (2011). Terrorism Risk in the post-9/11 Era 10-year Retrospective. 1 (1), p2-28.

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with were a biological agent or virus released in to the general public. Some

biological agents are lethal to humans and would certainly cause death in untreated

persons within a set time frame. For example, if a terrorist group were to release

either anthrax or smallpox virus on to the streets of the UK the death rate if serious

symptoms had onset would exceed over 80% of those infected.49 What this shows is

the severity of problems the UK faces if such an event occurs but also the very

reasons why such weapons are increasingly appealing to terrorist groups.

An example of a possible biological terrorist attack against either the general

public or persons within the UK Government, that has the ability to occur, could be

the 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States of America. In 2001 letters laced with

the biological agent anthrax were sent via mail to a number of people, of which 7 died

and 17 were taken seriously sick.50 Although the number of people who died and the

infected people who survived is a relatively small figure in comparison to other

terrorist attacks. What this shows is an ability to send anthrax laced letters or other

biological agents via the mail systems, only being exposed once people are

contaminated and show signs of infection.51 This would offer terrorists a two tier

attack, firstly the exposure of agents to the public and secondly the fear factor in the

aftermath of the attack. The anthrax letter attack in 2001 was more effective in

creating fear amongst the public than causing mass casualties on this occasion.52 If an

attack of this scale or a more severe attack occurred in the UK the same results are

very likely. There would also be the possibility of increased deaths and casualties

49 Disaster Survival Resources. (2014). Biological Threat. Available: http://www.disaster-survival-resources.com/biological-threat.html. Last accessed 21st April 2014.50 FBI. (2013). Amerithrax or Anthrax Investigation. Available: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/history/famous-cases/anthrax-amerithrax. Last accessed 21st April 2014.51 Beahm, G (2004). Straight talk about terrorism. Virginia: Brasseys's, Inc. p18-29.52 FBI. (2013). Amerithrax or Anthrax Investigation. Available: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/history/famous-cases/anthrax-amerithrax. Last accessed 21st April 2014.

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depending on to what extent the exposure of such agents were. This is backed by the

evidence found by the FBI that the number of letters sent was small, only four in

total.53 The evidence found by the FBI shows the stark contrast of what the possible

outcome would be if a terrorist group sent out a larger amount of biological laced

letters within the UK if there was greater public exposure. If we take into

consideration the figures of death rate and injured persons from the four letters it

becomes clear that on a larger scale there would undoubtedly be greater death and

casualty rates.

The threat of biological terrorism to the UK is further strengthened by the

findings of the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to

Terrorism or START for short. They found between 1990 and 2011 which covers

extensively the period post 9/11 that there were 21 biological agents used in 74

overall incidents.54 These findings show that terrorist organisations are very actively

willing to use such weapons strategically. Out of the 74 incidents there were 17 actual

biological attacks with the rest being point of usage.55 Again this shows the intent

from terrorist organisations to acquire and use biological weapons on a global scale.

This is something that could be implemented by UK based networks were Al-Qaida to

become successful in recruiting qualified persons in biochemistry within the UK or

use the internet as a platform of open knowledge to spread the required information.

The intent of terrorist organisations to use biological weapons is far greater than their

actual use. This is mainly down to a lack of knowledge to convert biological agents

53 FBI. (2013). Amerithrax or Anthrax Investigation. Available: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/history/famous-cases/anthrax-amerithrax. Last accessed 21st April 2014.54Pinson, L ETL. (2013). Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism.The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. 1 (1), p1-4.55Pinson, L ETL. (2013). Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism.The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. 1 (1), p1-4.

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into explosive dispersal devices safely.56 This though is something that can be ratified

with increased knowledge sharing via the internet and training camps in rogue states.

This is also evident in countries such as Syria where there is an increase of British

Muslims fighting in the region that could bring their new found knowledge back to

the UK to train others in bomb making which poses a major threat to UK security.

Radiological terrorist attacks

Radiological terrorism refers to the deliberate use of a radiological explosive dispersal

device or an act that has the ability to release radiological elements against a

population. This act would be deliberate and be to cause mass casualties, death and

destruction to infrastructure. Firstly, a radiological device can be initiated covertly or

secondly, openly with the terrorist groups informing the authorities of their actions to

strike immediate fear amongst the population.57 Both of these outcomes would bring

about an uncertainty over safety of the public and put large amounts of pressure on

the UK government. Explosive devices that carry a radiological threat are widely

known as a ‘dirty bomb’.

The reasons that terrorist organisations may seek to use this type of weapon

can be summarised via to strategic outcomes. Firstly, terrorist organisations will seek

to use a radiological device to expose the population to radiation directly, causing

death, human health problems and long term damage.58 The reason this scenario poses

such a threat is because of the possible longevity of peoples health problems, the

56Pinson, L ETL. (2013). Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism.The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. 1 (1), p1-4.57 NCTSN. (2014). Radiological Terrorism. Available: http://www.nctsn.org/trauma-types/terrorism/radiological. Last accessed 21st April 2014.58 Coburn, A ETL. (2011). Terrorism Risk in the post-9/11 Era 10-year Retrospective. 1 (1), p2-28.

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possibility of unlimited amounts concerning death rates depending on radiation

exposure and the direct pressure placed on the government to respond. Secondly,

terrorist organisations will seek to use such an attack to directly affect the day to day

workings of society through fear of possible exposure to radiation.59 This would

effects the basic movements of the population, affecting such things as the economy

and people general way of life. This would also affect the viability of food produce

around the contaminated area, but also place a risk of increased contamination of

persons who have used the effected food produce.

The case for this threat and the very reality that it is a possibility in the near future is

strengthened by the exposure of a plot in 2004 to use a dirty bomb against the London

subways system. In 2004 Dhiret Barot, an Al-Qaida fanatic and supporter of Global

terrorism against the west was arrested for plotting to use a radioactive dirty bomb

and cars filled with gas canisters.60 What this shows is intent, intent to actively use

such weapons in the UK. To expose the UK population to the effects of radiation to

cause death, serious harm and to make a clear statement to the government that such

groups have no limitations to how they can strike within the territorial integrity of the

United Kingdom. Dhiret Barot on this occasion was unsuccessful, though in the future

this may not be the case. There are a number of reasons for this. Firstly, radiological

materials are relatively easy to acquire.61 This situation gives terrorist organisations

greater emphasis to seek the materials to create such devices containing radioactive

materials. Secondly, the transportation of such materials is simplistic.62 There is no

59 Coburn, A ETL. (2011). Terrorism Risk in the post-9/11 Era 10-year Retrospective. 1 (1), p2-28.60 Ackerman, G ETL (2009). Jihadists and Weapons of Mass Destruction. Florida: CRC Press. p1-45.61 Beahm, G (2004). Straight talk about terrorism. Virginia: Brasseys's, Inc. p29-41.62 Beahm, G (2004). Straight talk about terrorism. Virginia: Brasseys's, Inc. p29-41.

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great emphasis to try hiding certain items, as many day to day products contain small

amounts of radiological materials. Finally, unlike other devices that use chemical and

biological materials there is no real need for a trained well educated person to

construct a radiological device.63 This would effectively limit costs, increase

production of devices and make it easier to strategically utilise such capabilities with

great effect.

Alternative radiological attacks within the United Kingdom could come in the

form of an attack against a nuclear power station. The UK has nine nuclear power

stations, which run 16 nuclear reactors.64 A terrorist attack against one of these

nuclear power plants would undoubtedly have serious consequences leaving a long

legacy of uncertainty with it. There are a number of ways in which a terrorist

organisation would tactically breach a nuclear power station in the UK. One of the

scenarios where a terrorist group could infiltrate the security perimeter would be to

attack the main gate with a heavily armed group of well trained individuals.65 Though

the UK is predominantly arms free, it is possible to get the arms required via

underground arms markets. Northern Ireland which still has an abundance of

conventional small arms from The Troubles era is also an option to source the

required weapons. There is also a highly likely hood for the use of homemade

explosive devices that could be used like conventional grenades. Vehicles laden with

explosives could be directed towards either the main gate or a parameter fence with

the intention on breaching it to gain maximum effectiveness in gaining entry to a

63 Beahm, G (2004). Straight talk about terrorism. Virginia: Brasseys's, Inc. p29-41.64 World Nuclear Association. (2014). Chernobyl Accident 1986. Available: http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/chernobyl-accident/. Last accessed 21st April 2014.65 Beahm, G (2004). Straight talk about terrorism. Virginia: Brasseys's, Inc. P29-41.

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nuclear facility.66 This second scenario would be the most likely because it would

have the most effect in gaining entry. There would also be a highly likely hood of an

armed follow up after a car bomb breach giving the terrorist group a greater

advantage. Al-Qaida’s intent on attacking such facilities and using this to then spread

radioactive fall out to cause death and destruction is very real. This is evident because

there have been a number nuclear power stations globally that have been targeted by

Al-Qaida affiliated groups in France and Canada.67 This shows that such groups are

thinking outside of their current strategy and trying to find new ways in which to

attack their enemy. To comprehend what the outcome of such an attack could bring

the consequences of the disaster at Chernobyl is a great example in this case. Though

this was not a terrorist attack, it is the possible outcome of a terrorist attack that is of

importance and is significant to us understanding the risks. The explosion of the

Chernobyl reactor was the largest ever release of radioactive materials ever recorded.

This exposed over 200,000 people to radiation, killing over 50 people with over two

thousand recorded cancer cases as a result of radiation exposure.68 If this scenario was

to happen in the UK, we can draw upon the results of this disaster and conclude that

the risks to human life and the environment are unquestionable. The implications to

the UK economy would be disastrous as would the risk of contamination to fertile

land and food produce just like Chernobyl.

The use of weapons of mass destruction by terrorists

66 Beahm, G (2004). Straight talk about terrorism. Virginia: Brasseys's, Inc. p29-41.67 Ackerman, G ETL (2009). Jihadists and Weapons of Mass Destruction. Florida: CRC Press. p1-45.68 World Nuclear Association. (2014). Chernobyl Accident 1986. Available: http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/chernobyl-accident/. Last accessed 21st April 2014.

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The use of weapons of mass destruction or WMD by terrorist organisations refers to

the deliberate use of weapons that have the ability to invoke the ultimate of

destructive outcome on humanity.

In the existence of WMD there have only ever been two nuclear bombs that

have been used against a civilian population. This was against Japan on the 6th and 9th

of August 1945 by the United States of America. Since then not a single nuclear

weapon has been used against another state, only tests of such weapons have been

exercised. Though this is the case there has been an increase of nations seeking to

gain such a destructive weapon. In total there are 8 declared nuclear armed states

around the globe, including the United Kingdom.69 The ability of terrorist

organisations gaining such weapons is very unlikely, but the possibility remains real

and present. This is because the intent is there, but the restrictions on such weapons

and the knowledge to make this capability is limited by states.

Chapter summary

The threat from chemical terrorism in the UK remains limited but has all the required

means to occur. This is due to the very nature of the threat and the means in which

this threat needs in order occur, being made easier by the system the UK operates. As

explained the UK offers the infrastructural means necessary to create, implement and

carry out chemical style attacks strategically. If Al-Qaida, like Aum Shinrikyo,

radicalised well educated graduates in chemistry and biotech fields then Al-Qaida’s

intent would become reality. This would ultimately bridge the gap strategically as all

69 CNN. (2014). Nuclear weapons: Who has what?. Available: http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2013/03/world/nuclear-weapon-states/. Last accessed 21st April 2014.

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the required means to carry out such an attack, like the sarin attacks in Japan would be

in place.

The threat from biological terrorism poses a significant threat to the UK. The

finding show that at current there is more an intent to gain such capabilities on the UK

than there is a threat of immediate usage, from the evidence if this was to become the

case then the outcome could be unlimited. The example used for this research shows

that this threat has a means to an end, that is, it has a strategic method of

implementation. Like the threat from chemical terrorism, bioterrorism only needs

trained persons to devise such devices. Bioterrorism has been successful before in the

United States which has a functional security system via the national postal service.

This proved a successful method of transportation of such an attack. Bioterrorism is

also a Global occurrence as laid out in this research which shows there is a clear intent

to gain and use such weapons as a method of terrorism. This knowledge could be

transferred via the internet to UK based terrorist organisations that are intent on gain

and utilising such a capability against the UK in the near future.

Radiological terrorism also poses a major threat to the UK’s population,

infrastructure and environment. Large radiological exposure would cause major health

problems and death among the population. Due to the UK case of Dhiret Barot in

2004, in which he was arrested and jailed for planning and devising devices to carry

out a radiological attack in an act of terrorism this threat is very real. There is also the

threat from a nuclear power station being attacked and sabotaged to cause a

radiological disaster. Although this threat remains unlikely due to materialistic and

strategic short falls in the UK, it is still a major threat. This is because there have

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already been instances in other well developed nations such as France and Canada

where terrorist organisations have planned and attempted to attack such installations.

If this was to happen in the UK and there was a successful attack, then the outcome

could be similar to Chernobyl and have catastrophic consequences.

The use of weapons of mass destruction such as nuclear weapons remains unlikely by

terrorist organisations. Though terrorist organisations such as Al-Qaida remain intent

on gaining such weapons, at current there is no evidence to suggest there is anything

more than intent. Due to there being a clear intent on gaining such a capability there

must however remain a threat from this type of terrorism.

CHAPTER THREE

SUICIDE BOMBING WITHIN THE UK

During this chapter a perspective analysis of the threat from suicide bombing in the

UK will be carried out. This chapter will focus on looking at the global picture of

suicide bombing to understand to what extent suicide bombing is used strategically by

terrorist organisation, in which terrorist organisations in the UK are affiliated. There

will be perspective analysis of the suicide bombings and the attackers themselves so

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to understand how such an occurrence can occur and whether it has the ability to

occur again. Finally, an analysis of the motivations behind the attacks will be carried

out to understand the attacker’s focuses and motivations in wanting to attack the UK.

Suicide bombing: A definition

Suicide bombing refers to the actions that are carried out either by an

individual or as a collective of individuals with the intention on causing mass

casualties or destruction in which they, the suicide bomber would certainly be killed

because of their actions. There are many reasons behind why people enter into suicide

bombing as a method of attack. Often this is because it has the greatest effect in

fracturing daily society and the people it directly affects.

Suicide bombing: An analysis

To understand fully the extent in which suicide bombing is a major global occurrence

Riaz Hassans study on ‘what motivates the suicide bomber’ brings this phenomenon

into perspective. Riaz Hassan found that between 1981 and 2006 there were 1200

suicide attacks globally. This accounted for 4% of all terrorist attacks, killing over

14,599 people and accounted for more than 32% of all terrorist related deaths

globally.70 Hassan’s finding show resoundingly the extent of the phenomena that is

suicide bombing and that it makes up a large part of the strategy used by terrorist

organisations such as Al-Qaida. There is no coincidence that these findings are the

way they are. This is because as a civilised society, suicide attacks affect our sense of

morality overwhelmingly and vigorously.71 We feel this way because we don’t

understand fully why there are people who would go to such lengths to achieve their

70 Hassan, R (2009). What Motivates the Suicide Bomber? YaleGlobal. Yale Centre for the Study of Globaization. P1-1171 Reuter, C (2004). My Life is a Weapon. Oxfordshire: Princeton University Press. 1-52.

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goals or act in such a manner that ultimately leads to their own death by their own

hand, no matter the importance. This is why such attacks and the strategy of using

suicide bombers are so effective against the general population. Suicide bombing is

very effective at achieving fear among a population. This is because we lose our

sense of security, our sense of society and rule of law because we cannot retaliate

against such an act in which a suicide bombers only aim is to kill then be killed by his

own doing.72 This is why suicide bombing has become such a vital strategic weapon

for organisations such as Al-Qaida because it is becoming arguably the most effective

form of attack. It doesn’t allow us to actively bring the perpetrator(s) to justice and

effectively leaves behind a legacy of public anger and fear. Also there is often

resentment towards the authorities because they were unable to keep us safe from

such an attack. This ultimately eradicates any form of state authority leaving it

helpless to act.73 Therefore the state has no power over any attacker because they

believe death is the ultimate sacrifice which they are willing to make. Unlike suicide

bombers, law abiding members of the public believe in the rule of law and are

deterred from committing a crime because of retribution through a justice system.

This is also applies to other methods of terrorism against a state or a population

because there at some stage can be some form of accountability for one’s actions. For

suicide bombers this no longer applies. This is because there becomes no deterrent

and any form of accountability for the actions you take become worthless. This is due

to a suicide bomber already imposing the ultimate sentence upon themselves at the

time they carries out his act.74

Suicide bombing: A UK case

72 Reuter, C (2004). My Life is a Weapon. Oxfordshire: Princeton University Press. 1-52.73 Reuter, C (2004). My Life is a Weapon. Oxfordshire: Princeton University Press. 1-52.74 Reuter, C (2004). My Life is a Weapon. Oxfordshire: Princeton University Press. 1-52.

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On July 7th 2005 there were a number of co-ordinated suicide bombings across the

city of London in the UK. The attacks were carried out with the intension on causing

mass death and injury amount the daily population of the city and to make a clear

statement to the UK government. Altogether there were four suicide bombers, of

which three detonated there selves on board the London underground and the fourth

on a London bus. Such was the devastating nature of these suicide attacks it caused 52

deaths and over 700 were injured as a result.75 This attacked showed that a terrorist

method of attack that is synonymous to the Middle East was able to arise in the

United Kingdom’s most major city with devastating effect. It also showed a clear gap

in homeland security and what the British public could expect in the future. The

suicide attacks in London accounted for the only suicide attack in the history of UK

terrorism but also the largest ever lose of life in a single terrorist attack.76 What this

does is give a clear picture of the effective nature of suicide bombing and strategically

how it is more affective in targeting civilians at any given point to ensure the greater

casualty results.

` The men who carried out the suicide attacks in London were all British

nationals of varied ethnic decent. Three of the men were Asian in origin with the

fourth being Jamaican, all followed the Islamic faith.77 The broader picture of the men

who carried out these attacks goes against the normative characteristics in which

suicide bombers are usually associated. None of the attackers did anything out of the

ordinary that could raise suspicions and led a simple and similar lifestyle to those in

75 The Stationery Office. (2006). Report of the Official Account of the Bombings in London on 7th July 2005. . 1 (1), p1-36.76 The Stationery Office. (2006). Report of the Official Account of the Bombings in London on 7th July 2005. . 1 (1), p1-36.77 The Stationery Office. (2006). Report of the Official Account of the Bombings in London on 7th July 2005. . 1 (1), p1-36.

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their ethnic and localised surroundings.78 This is very unusual in cases of suicide

bombing as often the bombers come from poverty deprived areas, states and regions

where there are ethnic tensions, which the UK is neither and has a prosperous,

peaceful and diverse multi cultural society in which all four were a part of. There was

also a clear difference in this case of suicide bombing to others abroad. All the

attackers had a well educated background with differing levels of academic success,

with two of the attacks attending University.79 The reason there is a unusual difference

here is because people who usually result to suicide bombing are people who lack

education, live in poverty, are easily persuaded and therefore do not understand fully

their actions. The four UK attackers were all well educated and knew exactly what

they were doing because of their extensive education and a normal upbringing.

Suicide Bombing: Motivations behind the attacks.

Khan, who was known to be the orchestrator of the attacks and leader of the group,

released a video to coincide with the bombings. In the video Khan gives their motives

and explanations behind the attacks with a speech directed to both the citizens of the

UK who they directly targeted and the UK government. To fully understand the

group’s motives under Khan’s leadership, it is vital to understand and make an

analysis of the video speech that Khan released. Khan’s motives and explanation are

as follows:

Our driving motivation doesn’t come from tangible commodities that

this world has to offer.

78 The Stationery Office. (2006). Report of the Official Account of the Bombings in London on 7th July 2005. . 1 (1), p1-36.79 The Stationery Office. (2006). Report of the Official Account of the Bombings in London on 7th July 2005. . 1 (1), p1-36.

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Our religion is Islam – obedience to the one true God, Allah, and

following the footsteps of the final prophet and messenger

Mohammed...This is how our ethical stances are dictated.

Your democratically elected government continuously perpetuate

atrocities against my people all over the World. And your support of

them makes you directly responsible, just as I am directly responsible

for protecting and avenging my Muslim brothers and sisters.

Until we feel security, you will be our targets. And until you stop the

bombing, gassing, imprisonment and torture of my people we will not

stop this fight. We are at war and I am a soldier. Now you too will taste

the reality of this situation....

I myself, I make du’a to Allah...to raise me amongst those whom I love

like the prophets, the messengers, the martyrs and today’s heroes like

our beloved sheik Osama Bin Laden, Dr Ayman Al-Zawahir and Abu

Musab Al-Zarqawi and all the other brothers and sisters that are

fighting in the...of this cause.80

Analysing khan’s speech gives an idea of how the group were feeling at the time and

their motivations behind the attacks. When Khan speaks of the driving motives and

that the group were not driven by tangible things, this shows that they are religiously

80 The Stationery Office. (2006). Report of the Official Account of the Bombings in London on 7th July 2005. . 1 (1), p1-36.

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focused, in some kind of trance like state that has religion at its core. What Khan is

expressing here is that everything they do, the way they live their lives, is dictated by

their beliefs of Islam. Khan explains their ethical stance and he focuses on their duty

as Muslims. This shows Khan and the group’s relationship with the Islamic faith is

very strong, but also shows that they are mentally, and consciously, focused on

religious factors. Like many who follow the Islamic faith, Khan expresses and

emphasises his relationship with other Muslims. Though, at this point his views are

clearly a more radical form of Islam do not represent the masses of Muslims in the

UK or Globally. The clear connection Khan feels he and his comrades have with their

fellow Muslims look to be one of their main reasons for their decision to carrying out

the attacks. He also attempts to justify, largely not very well, or convincingly, that it is

the fault of the UK public. He does however attempt to make a conscious effort to

connect with the pubic and try to justify their actions. With this, it is clear that the

group do not feel that the UK public understand the actions of their government and

that they are somewhat to blame wholeheartedly. The way in which Khan expresses

his views on this is that the public are somewhat blind and should be punished for

their inability to see what they believe to be happening. Finally, Khan makes du’a to

Allah, in doing so he is subduing to his god. This shows that the group have already

made their minds up and are focused on the task in hand. By making du’a, Khan is

asking for strength and calling out to the prophet Mohammed for guidance of their

faith. By doing this, Khan is trying to justify their actions in the eyes of the prophet

Mohammed and their God Allah. Again this shows that the group are religiously

focused and driven in their actions. It is also evident that Khan wishes to be seen as a

martyr in the eyes of those who follow the radical side of Islam and he is carrying

their attacks on behalf of them, as well as his fellow Muslims.

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Chapter summary

Suicide bombing from the readily available information, when taking a perspective

approach, confirms that suicide bombing is a major threat globally and potentially to

the United Kingdom in the future. This conclusion is based on the 7/7 attacks and the

ease in which they planned and carried out the attacks in an era of heightened security

in the UK. It is clear statistically that suicide bombing is a preferred method of

terrorist attack. This is clearly due to the mass causality approach in which many

terrorist aim for. The ability to wait until you can cause the maximum death rate

before you detonate your self is a clear strategic advantage to such organisation

wanting to cause such outcomes. The suicide bombings in London in 2005 emphasise

that this threat is a possibility in the UK and is likely to happen again at some point in

the future. Due to this event being the only kind in the history of terrorism in the

United Kingdom, this suggests that it will also be a rare, but deadly occurrence when

accounting for the casualty figure of this type of attack. This attack caused more

casualties than any other terrorist attack in UK history which is something future

terrorist may take into account before selecting their own preferred methods. The

mental state of the attackers was clear to see, when analysing the speech by Khan and

will also play a major part in any future attacks. This is because the link between

radicalisation and the attackers was strong and played a key role in their methods.

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CHAPTER FOUR

TERRORIST ATTACKS AGAINST UK ARMED FORCES PERSONNEL

Terrorism on our streets: The analysis of the Woolwich attack.

On May 22nd 2013, the UK witnessed the horrific killing of British servicemen,

Fusilier Lee Rigby on the streets of the Nation’s capital London. Two men, Michael

Adebolajo and Michael Adebowale knocked down Lee Rigby as he attempted to cross

the road. They then repeatedly hacked at drummer Lee Rigby’s lifeless body in a rage,

with no concern to the viewing public, who had to stand and watch the horrific scene

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unfold.81 During this attack, one thing was strikingly evident in both men, they had

been radicalised to a position of shear hatred towards UK Armed Forces personnel,

and Lee Rigby was merely the victim in the wrong place at the right time.

When analysing the video footage of Michael Adebolajo openly speaking

about why they had committed the crime, it is clear to see that they were in a trance

like state of mind.82 Michael Adebolajo speaks in a calm but eccentric manner

showing clear signs of confusion. “Remove your Government, they don’t care about

you”,83 Michael Adebolajo remarks, demonstrating that he is attempting to disconnect

himself from UK society. In doing this he is portraying an ‘us versus them’ scenario

as James Forest explains, which has been analysed in chapter one, an era of new or

old terrorism. Another key fact into the state of mind of Lee Rigby’s killers is the

religious confusion by Michael Adebolajo. He emphasises that it is “an eye for an eye,

a tooth for a tooth.84 The fact that Michael Adebolajo was once a devout Christian and

converted to Islam at a later stage in his life by stating this shows he is religiously

confused. This is because the statement he makes is of the Christian faith from the

Old Testament and not the Qur’an.

One of the clear fundamentals to why this attack took place was because of

how the two men felt about the UK’s operations in Muslim lands. During his

interview while in police custody Michael Adebolajo confirms this by stating it was

81 Casciani, D. (2013). Woolwich: How did Michael Adebolajo become a killer?. Available: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25424290. Last accessed 26th April 2014.82 Casciani, D. (2013). Woolwich: How did Michael Adebolajo become a killer?. Available: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25424290. Last accessed 26th April 2014.83 Casciani, D. (2013). Woolwich: How did Michael Adebolajo become a killer?. Available: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25424290. Last accessed 26th April 2014.84 Press Association. (2014). Lee Rigby murder: the judge's sentencing speech in full. Available: http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/feb/26/lee-rigby-murder-judges-speech-sentencing. Last accessed 21st April 2014.

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the Iraq war that affected him overwhelmingly.85 This emphasises the assumptions

that one of the origins of radicalisation derives from occupation or the assumed

oppression of a people by a foreign or domestic state. This assumption is further

strengthened as Michael Adebolajo continues, “I saw operation shock and awe and it

disgusted me. The way it was reported was as if it was praiseworthy, saying look at

the might and awe of the West and America. Every one of those bombs was killing

people.”86 This statement shows the clear hatred for the West and shows the ill feeling

Michael has with the UK’s position in this regard. It is clear to see that he has been

radicalised into believing that everything the UK does is wrong and that it must be

punished.

The reasoning behind why the two men chose this terrorist tactic is clear.

Michael Adebolajo and Michael Adebowale believed that it was the fairest target.87

They believed this because they felt they were themselves soldiers, soldiers of Islam.

In the video that was taken during the attack in which Michael Adebolajo speaks, he

states that, “we must fight them as they fight us.”88 This statement makes this stance

clear and shows an alternative tactic from the contemporary terrorism that uses

explosive devices to kill en masse. The two men are clearly simplistic in their

planning. This type of terrorist attack does not require any form of detailed planning

or a trained person, it is very easy to conduct.89 This allowed the men to go unnoticed,

other than their extremist views which were well known to the authority. Because of

this, this type of attack in the future can cause a major terrorist threat. Firstly,

85 Casciani, D. (2013). Woolwich: How did Michael Adebolajo become a killer?. Available: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25424290. Last accessed 26th April 2014.86 Casciani, D. (2013). Woolwich: How did Michael Adebolajo become a killer?. Available: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25424290. Last accessed 26th April 2014.87 Casciani, D. (2013). Woolwich: How did Michael Adebolajo become a killer?. Available: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25424290. Last accessed 26th April 2014.88 Casciani, D. (2013). Woolwich: How did Michael Adebolajo become a killer?. Available: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25424290. Last accessed 26th April 2014.89 Casciani, D. (2013). Woolwich: How did Michael Adebolajo become a killer?. Available: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25424290. Last accessed 26th April 2014.

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extremist preachers can radicalize simplistic people with no need to conduct more

detailed training in bomb making. Secondly, this type of attack is hard to prevent

because there is no need to restrict movement and there is no acquisition of illegal or

materials that could be noticeable to the authorities.

Chapter summary

The reasoning behind this attack is clear. The attackers used this tactic because they

themselves believed, just as Lee Rigby did, they too were soldiers. The chosen

method was simplistic in approach and didn’t require any major planning, which

limited their exposure to the authorities. Both men had clearly been radicalised which

is evident in their confusion of their faith and the reasoning behind the attacks. They

had clearly separated themselves from society, and identified themselves through their

faith which for them justified their attack. The UK’s overseas operations played a

pivotal role in the two men’s decision to attack Lee Rigby and were more than likely

key to their radicalisation and eventual extremist undertakings. Because of the

simplicity of this type of attack and the increasing number of people being radicalised

in the UK this kind of terrorist attack in which a member of the UK Armed Forces is

attacked is very likely.

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CHAPTER FIVE

TERRORIST ATTACKS AGAINST THE UK TRANSPORT SYSTEM

Maritime terrorism: A definition

Maritime terrorism refers to the usage of Maritime Improvised Explosive Devices,

MIED for short, at sea. These devices can vary in type and include boat laden vessels

full of explosives, sea mines and homemade devices that can be put to sea. It also

refers to the use of any other means with the intention to disrupt the maritime system,

cause death at sea and use the sea as a platform to attack by a terrorist organisation.

Maritime terrorism: A future terrorist threat

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Maritime terrorism is widely and commonly used around the world, notably the

Middle East and Asia with varied degree of success. According the Dr Chris Martin,

author of Hull University Centre for Security Studies IED Project Occasional Paper

No. 1, this type of terrorism has gone largely unnoticed by the west, as it doesn’t

affect us directly.90 Because this has been the case and the focus of western

governments perceived image of terrorism to use more commonly used tactics has to

a degree weakened our ability to deal with such threats. The relative ease in which

members of the public can travel by sea compared to air travel is clear to see. The

rigorous checks people expect at airports are none existent at many maritime transport

hubs and this is an area of concern. Terrorist organisations in the UK may utilise this

weak link to shift their tactics and engage in maritime terrorism over the

contemporary attacks we have witnessed in the UK over the last decade. Terrorist

organisations are learning fast and are actively looking for new ways to attack.

“Failure simply demonstrates effort, persistence and a willingness to learn.”91 Because

this is so, this type of terrorism will continue to adapt and improve, becoming a major

concern for the West, including the UK. There are two reasons behind why terrorist

organisations might use maritime terrorism as a tactic and attack a ferry. Firstly, it

would represent a mass casualty scenario that is wholly desirable by today’s terrorist.

Secondly, it represents an easy target due to the lax security that is currently in place.

Attacks against trade ships also represent a possible terrorist threat. The UK

has utilised the maritime environment for centuries and, “it is important to recognise

90 Martin, C Dr. (2010). THE HISTORICAL USE OF MARITIME IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES. Hull University Centre for Security Studies IED Project Occasional Paper No. 1. 1 (1), p2-26.91 Martin, C Dr. (2010). THE HISTORICAL USE OF MARITIME IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES. Hull University Centre for Security Studies IED Project Occasional Paper No. 1. 1 (1), p2-26.

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that the more advanced the economy, and the more dependent upon maritime trade,

the more vulnerable to MIEDs, and this is why this matter is important to us.”92

Because the UK is an island, its dependency on the sea is essential and its usage is

necessary for it economy. As a nation, the UK is a big importer of goods from around

the world and has many ports that are extremely important. For the UK, “these are the

hub of the global maritime economy which operates on a, ‘just enough-just in time’

basis.”93 Because of this, it is fundamentally essential that this system is not exploited

by terrorist organisations in the UK. This is also a major reason why terrorist

organisations may look to use this in the future because of the direct effect an attack

would have on the UK economy. The problem the UK faces is that, “these ports are

designed, not for ease of defence, but specifically for ease of access.”94 This offers

terrorists the ability to attempt to enter ports at speed, giving them enough time to

choose their possible targets before they can be stopped, if they are noticed. As

explained in Chapter One, new terrorists that have been radicalised are more likely to

be willing to die for their cause. Because of this, a suicide attack in a bomb laden boat

is very likely. This is because, “the explosive laden speed boat is, perhaps the most

used and most effective maritime IED.”95 This adds to the fact that ports are designed

for ease of access and represents a likely method of attack and poses a major threat to

the UK.

92 Martin, C Dr. (2010). THE HISTORICAL USE OF MARITIME IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES. Hull University Centre for Security Studies IED Project Occasional Paper No. 1. 1 (1), p2-26.93 Martin, C Dr. (2010). THE HISTORICAL USE OF MARITIME IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES. Hull University Centre for Security Studies IED Project Occasional Paper No. 1. 1 (1), p2-26.94 Martin, C Dr. (2010). THE HISTORICAL USE OF MARITIME IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES. Hull University Centre for Security Studies IED Project Occasional Paper No. 1. 1 (1), p2-26.95 Martin, C Dr. (2010). THE HISTORICAL USE OF MARITIME IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES. Hull University Centre for Security Studies IED Project Occasional Paper No. 1. 1 (1), p2-26.

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Chapter summary

Maritime terrorism poses a major threat to the UK and has gone relatively unnoticed.

Because this has been the case, the UK has left itself open to attacks at sea. The two

most likely forms that maritime terrorism will take in the UK are firstly, attacks

against ferries using an explosive device on board to cause mass death. Secondly, an

attack against trade ships in port or at sea because of the direct effect on the economy

if an attack took place. This added to the need for access at ports to be simplistic to

allow the flow of ships to be easy, represents an easy target for terrorist organisations

that could be utilised in the future.

Conclusion

The findings from this research conclude that the threat the UK faces is most likely to

come in the form of an explosive bomb attack against a populated area. This attack

could come in a variety of methods, from IED’s to suicide bombers but will have the

same outcome. This is because contemporary terrorists seek destructive outcomes and

will apply tactics to meet this strategic demand. This type of attack has few

limitations as it is relatively easy to implement, making it a desirable to terrorists.

The issues terrorists have with CBRN is that they require advanced, in depth

knowledge of certain criteria to allow them to successfully implement such a tactic.

Because this is so, there is an unlikelihood of such attacks occurring. Though they still

pose a plausible threat to the UK and will continue to do so into the near future.

Attacks against UK security personnel, though a threat, does not meet with the

consensus of mass casualty outcomes that terrorist organisation prefer. Therefore

though it is very likely such an attack will happen again in the future, its commonalty

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is not as likely as explosive devices. Radicalisation is undoubtedly a major concern to

the UK, and will remain a future security threat. With the increase of domestic

radicalisation, terrorist attacks in the UK will most certainly increase. The suicide

attacks in London, the Glasgow airport car bomb and the Lee Rigby attack emphasise

the radicalisation problem the UK is facing. This is because all the attackers were

British and all had been radicalised into carrying out their attacks.

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