Disruptive Technologies: Explained An archestra notebook © 2013 Malcolm Ryder / archestra
Jan 27, 2015
Disruptive Technologies:Explained
An archestra notebook
© 2013 Malcolm Ryder / archestra
WHAT ARE THE DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES LOOMING BEFORE US?
We know many of them, but the answer is “it depends”…
What is a “technology”
Any item designed specifically to be a tool used in a prescribed method of production.
What will they disrupt, and Why?
Frost & Sullivan 50th Anniversary: 50 Emerging/Disruptive Technologies
1. Accelerated carbonation technology 2. Biomass-to-renewable oil conversion technology 3. Microchannel process technology 4. Carbide-derived carbon (CDC) technology 5. Breathable antibacterial coatings, products 6. Plastic conversion to oil by gasolysis7. Algal-based platform for production of a wide variety of chemicals 8. Destagnation and destratification of water 9. Non-woven coating spray-on technology 10. Artificial photosynthesis 11. BPA-free epoxy lining of plastic bottles 12. Hydrogen storage technology 13. Production of liquid biofuel from industrial waste gases containing
carbon monoxide 14. Mini-chromosome gene stacking technology 15. Nanoparticles for use as anti-viral agents or "nanoviricides" 16. Substitute pancreas for diabetics using stem cells 17. Wireless sensors and ubiquitous sensors 18. Energy harvesting 19. Wearable sensors 20. Fiber optic sensor for security 21. Structural health monitoring sensors 22. Intelligent robots 23. Flexible electronics 24. 3D integration 25. Smart grid networks
26. Mobile projection systems 27. Advanced storage technologies (MRAM/PCM) 28. Hyperspectral imaging 29. Haptics and touch technology 30. Energy-efficient lighting technologies 31. EUV for higher transistor density 32. Energy-efficient variable frequency drives (VFD) 33. Reconfigurable manufacturing systems 34. Micro and nano manufacturing technologies 35. Machine vision systems 36. Charging infrastructure for electric vehicles 37. Inductive wireless power transfer 38. 3D cell culture systems 39. Personalized medicine therapeutics 40. Dendritic cell therapy 41. Vaccines for infectious disease and cancer 42. High-throughput sequencing technology 43. The infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) solution 44. Quantum computing 45. Energy management and carbon accounting systems 46. Fuel cell technology 47. Sea water desalination technologies 48. Green building technologies 49. Carbon-fixing technologies 50. Medical imaging technology
Four broad categories (per M. Ryder / archestra): Computing & Machines -- Device Controls, Manufacturing and Infrastructure
Health & Ecosystems -- Alternative & Renewable Energy
Computing & Machines
1. Carbide-derived carbon (CDC) technology
2. Wireless sensors and ubiquitous sensors
3. Fiber optic sensor for security
4. Intelligent robots
5. Flexible electronics
6. 3D integration
7. Smart grid networks
8. Advanced storage technologies (MRAM/PCM)
9. EUV lithography for higher transistor density
10. Energy-efficient variable frequency drives (VFD)
11. Micro and nano manufacturing technologies
12. The infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) solution
13. Quantum computing
Things we make that make other
things…
List Credit: Frost & SullivanCategorization: archestra, for discussion purposes only
Device Controls, Manufacturing & Infrastructure
1. Wireless sensors and ubiquitous sensors
2. Wearable sensors
3. Mobile projection systems
4. Haptics and touch technology
5. Energy-efficient variable frequency drives (VFD)
6. Reconfigurable manufacturing systems
7. Micro and nano manufacturing technologies
8. Machine vision systems
9. Charging infrastructure for electric vehicles
10. Inductive wireless power transfer
11. The infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) solution
Things that control what other things
do…
List Credit: Frost & SullivanCategorization: archestra, for discussion purposes only
Alternative and Renewable Energy
1. Biomass-to-renewable oil conversion technology
2. Microchannel process technology
3. Carbide-derived carbon (CDC) technology
4. Plastic conversion to oil by gasolysis
5. Algal-based platform for production of a wide variety of chemicals
6. Artificial photosynthesis
7. Hydrogen storage technology
8. Production of liquid biofuel from industrial waste gases containing carbon monoxide
9. Energy harvesting
10. Energy-efficient lighting technologies
11. Charging infrastructure for electric vehicles
12. Inductive wireless power transfer
13. Energy management and carbon accounting systems
14. Fuel cell technology
15. Carbon-fixing technologies
How to feed things that do other things…
List Credit: Frost & SullivanCategorization: archestra, for discussion purposes only
Health and Ecosystems1. Accelerated carbonation technology
2. Breathable antibacterial coatings, products
3. Destagnation and destratification of water
4. Non-woven coating spray-on technology
5. BPA-free epoxy lining of plastic bottles
6. Production of liquid biofuel from industrial waste gases containing carbon monoxide
7. Mini-chromosome gene stacking technology
8. Nanoparticles for use as anti-viral agents or "nanoviricides"
9. Substitute pancreas for diabetics using stem cells
10. Wearable sensors
11. Structural health monitoring sensors
12. Hyperspectral imaging
13. 3D cell culture systems
14. Personalized medicine therapeutics
15. Dendritic cell therapy
16. Vaccines for infectious disease and cancer
17. High-throughput sequencing technology
18. Sea water desalination technologies
19. Green building technologies
20. Medical imaging technology
Things for making or recovering
environments …
List Credit: Frost & SullivanCategorization: archestra, for discussion purposes only
Things we make that make other
things…
Things that control what other things
do…
How to feed things that do other things…
Things for making or recovering
environments …
In the F&S 50, it turns out there are generic areas of experimentation and production worth monitoring … areas that also start to show a logic for being loosely coupled
One can argue about specifics, and there are overlaps, but the “trend” generally holds.
The importance of finding and aligning such groupings is that it suggests a way to explain why even disparate developments may relate to each other, possibly even inciting additional new developments to fill “gaps”
It is plausible that technology-based disruptions of some general kinds can be strongly anticipated, if not yet specifically forecast.
This doesn’t make them less disruptive, but it can make discovered disruptions more manageable after the fact, while also increasing the chances of disruption being premeditated for one’s own purposes.
In other words…
What happens when a technology disrupts markets and business?
• What does a technology do in a market?– Power the market operations
• Communications
• Search
• Transactions
– Create a different market• Enable a location for a market
• Access to a market
• Access to a deliverable
– Provide something to sell that grows a market • Nano and digital products
Three kinds of impact
What happens when a technology disrupts markets and business?
• What do markets do?– Connect sellers (businesses) with buyers (consumers)
• What does business do?– Connect suppliers (resources) with producers (providers)
• Can a disruptive technology affect a market and a business? Yes…– Each, concurrently but differently– Each, simultaneously and similarly– Chain reaction: affect one, which then affects the other
What is actually disrupted?
An existing system. It has several vulnerabilities:
1. Dominance
2. Equilibrium
3. Momentum (Self-fulfilling expectations)
3. Initial conditions: will introducing a new factor into the system’s ecology trigger “the butterfly effect” -- a chaotic chain reaction of dynamics, or a systematic generation of an unpredictable future?
2. Tipping points: when is a new factor in the environment likely to be “the last straw” burdening the prior equilibrium? Is there some element of the system that is reaching critical mass?
1. Outliers: what unexpected factor carrying an extreme 'impact' will arrive that, in hindsight only, will seem to have been always probable? Beforehand, nothing in the past convincingly pointed to its possibility.
Is disruption destructive, or constructive?
• Define disruption– An intervening or disintegrating impact on a current
arrangement, structure or flow
• What is destroyed– Value of current system behavior is obsoleted by an
alternative
– Efficacy of current system is interrupted by an intervener
• What is built– Expansion in range of types of Opportunity
– Evolutionary survival Advantage
Some crucial disruptive technologies
• Broadband (access)
– Malware
– IPv
• Virtual currency (liquidity)
– Bitcoin
• Location services (closest distributor)
– GPS
– Cellular radio
• Powerplants (portability and continuity)
– Fuel cells
Note that we get used to disruption very rapidly… They just become part of the
next “normal”…
WHAT IS THE SYSTEM THAT IS BEING DISRUPTED?
The system is a set of Relational, Environmental, Cultural and Industrial arrangements in Markets vs. Businesses.
These arrangements are subject to disruption.
Disruption areas include variables
Markets (Companies & Consumers)
• Relational disruptions
– Access channels
– Delivery systems
– Dis-intermediated buying
• Environmental disruptions
– Production Locations
– Renewability
– Resources
Businesses(Resources & Providers)
• Cultural disruptions
– Political compatibility
– Regulations
– Preferences
• Industrial disruptions
– Contracts
– Supply chain
– Automation
A Lineup of Influence Strategies
Relational
(dis-intermediate and expand buying)
Cultural
(find and/or change deliverables per preferences)
Environmental
(make with better resources)
Industrial
(increase production automation at lower cost)
e.g. Google adsenseSocial networks
e.g. iTunesAmazonVoIP
e.g. PriusSolar power
e.g. Flash drivesRoboticsNanotech
As seen here, certain variables can be exploited to create disruptions with profound levels of impact. A company may attempt to leverage any number of the key variables. It may even pursue an integratedset of multiple strategies for just one product…
Key System Drivers and DynamicsMarkets (Companies & Consumers)
• Sellers (Companies)– Motives
– Choices
– Capacity
• Buyers (Consumers)– Desires
– Expectations
– Tolerances
Businesses(Resources & Providers)
• Producers (Providers)– Skills
– Methods
• Suppliers (Resources)– Inventory
– R&D
Each point above is also a candidate variable for provoking a disruptive change.
The system’s Drivers and Dynamics are exercised by Roles that manage the intersection of Market and Business interests.
• Sellers and Producers interact through the Operation Partner role and its interests.
• Sellers and Suppliers interact through the Product Partner role and its interests.
• Buyers and Producers interact through the Manufacturer role and its interests.
• Buyers and Suppliers interact through the Source role and its interests.
Key System Roles
Commerce: The “System”Relational, Cultural, Environmental, and Industrial arrangements
Markets
Business
Sellers (Companies)• Motives• Choices• Capacity
Buyers (Consumers)• Desires• Expectations• Tolerances
Producers (Providers)• Skills• Methods
Operation Partners• Agility• Logistics
Suppliers (Resources)• Inventory• R&D
Product Partners• Cost• Scale
cultu
ral
ind
ust
rial
relational
Sources• Values
• Ethics• Tastes• Safety
Manufacturers• Reliability
• Quality• Variety
environmental
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Responding to Disruptions
“Markets” assume that special information is available, about the deliverability of preferred products and services that can be produced with: relatively advantaged methods; on a repeated basis and frequency; during a given time period.
Technology can create, fortify, or alter every differentiator in that assumption -- for better or worse.
Awareness of those impacts causes the need to decide how to fit into any oncoming system re-alignment provoked by the impacts.
In make-or-break scenarios, a company can invest in getting its way on the makes, and/or in protecting itself from the breaks, generated by the impact of technology’s influence.
A successful response can depend on breaking through to a new position.
Bottlenecks and Balancing points
• Markets– Relational
• e.g., power curves and value of the long tail
– Environmental• e.g., Energy and Resource costs
• Businesses– Cultural
• e.g., Information access and transparency
– Industrial• e.g., Supply chains
Sellers (Companies) & Buyers (Consumers)
Suppliers (Resources) & Producers (Providers)
A successful response can depend on breaking through to a new position.
Example System Disrupters: Business Strategies
Cultural strategy:
Find and change preferences
• Information access & transparency– Speech recognition
– Text translation
– Digital video / VoIP
– Cloud data
Many new technologies become disruptive within a given strategy.
Industrial strategy:
Increase production automation at lower cost
• Supply Chains– 3-D printing– A.I.– Microchips
• Graphene / Carbon nanotubes• Extreme UV lithography
(stretch)
Example System Disrupters: Market Strategies
Relational strategy:
Dis-intermediate and expand buying
• Power curves and value of the long tail– Neural networks / machine
learning
Many new technologies become disruptive within a given strategy.
• Energy and Materials Costs– Outer space manufacturing
– Energy storage
Environmental strategy:
Build with new resources
The systems view of Disruption
• Disruptive Technology is a phenomenon that occurs within the system of commerce.
• The system model allows key drivers, dynamics and interests to be identified as areas or points of variability and change.
• Most changes can be located and understood, or even theorized, as exceptions, thresholds, or catalysts in the system.
• Companies premeditating or adjusting to change can strategically analyze their options by navigating the model.
• Changes in the system will involve predictable basic roles that exercise the market and business interactions of sellers, buyers, producers and suppliers.