Disruptive Demographics and North Carolina’s Education Challenges May 2012 James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Disruptive Demographics and North Carolina’s Education
Challenges
May 2012
James H. Johnson, Jr.
Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
OVERVIEW
• Demographic Trends
• Challenges & Opportunities
• Discussion
what
May 2012
CENSUS 2010will REVEAL
The South Continues To Rise
The South Continues To Rise
...Again!
STATE SHARES OF SOUTH’S NET GROWTH, 2000-2010
Region/State Absolute Change State’s Share
The South 14,318,924 100.0%
Texas 4,293,741 30.0%
Florida 2,818,932 19.7%
Georgia 1,501,200 10.5%
North Carolina 1,486,170 10.4%
Other Southern States 4,218,881 29.4%
THE “BROWNING” OF NORTH CAROLINA
NORTH CAROLINA POPULATION GROWTH BY NATIVITY, RACE, AND ETHNICITY, 1990-2007
Native Immigrant White Black Hispanic Asian Pacific Islander
129%
547%
127% 133%
829%
332%
182%
NORTH CAROLINA POPULATION GROWTH BY NATIVITY, RACE, AND ETHNICITY, 1990-2007
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008
0.5% 0.6%
1.3%1.7%
5.3%
6.9%
21,978 28,620
78,358115,077
430,000
623,242
CONTRIBUTIONS OF NON-WHITES & HISPANICS TO NC POPULATION CHANGE, 2000-
2010
Area
Absolute Population
ChangePercent Non-
White*Percent Hispanic
All Counties 1,486,170 61.2 28.5
Tier 1 Counties 69,365 84.1 51.5
Tier 2 Counties 327,859 63.2 34.2
Tier 3 Counties 1,088,946 59.1 25.0
Source: Census 2000 and Census 2010. *Non-whites include Blacks, Hispanics, American Indians and Alaskan Natives, Asians, Native Hawaiians & Pacific Islanders, and people of two or more races.
OUT-MARRIAGE PATTERNS BY RACE AND GENDER, NC 2005-
2009Hispanic Men 21.4 Hispanic Women 21.6 Black Men 9.4 Black Women 3.4
White Female 18.0 White Male 16.4 White Female 6.0 White Male 0.6Black Female 1.5 Black Male 3.7 Hispanic Female 1.4 Hispanic Male 1.9Asian Female 0.7 Asian Male 0.2 Asian Female 0.5 Asian Male 0.1Other Female 1.2 Other Male 1.3 Other Female 1.5 Other Male 0.9
White Men 3.3 White Women 3.4 Asian Men 12.3 Asian Women 31.4Hispanic Female 1.1 Hispanic Male 1.2 White Female 10.0 Hispanic Male 1.5Black Female 0.3 Black Male 1.1 Black Female 0.6 White Male 25.8Asian Female 0.9 Asian Male 0.2 Hispanic Female 0.5 Black Male 2.7Other Female 1.0 Other Male 0.9 Other Female 1.2 Other Male 1.3
MEDIAN AGE & FERTILITY RATES FOR FEMALES IN NC,
2005-2009 Demographic Group Median Age
Fertility/1000 women*
All Females 38.1 56White, Not Hispanic 41.6 49Black 35.0 58American Indian & Alaskan Native 34.1 74Asian 32.8 67Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander 25.5 33Some other race 22.1 108Two or more races 17.8 78Hispanic 22.3 101Native Born 38.7 52Foreign Born 35.3 92
.
Source: American Community Survey *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months
RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE /
ETHNICITYRace/Ethnicity 1990 2008 2011
White 66% 50% 49.6%
Blacks 17% 16% 15.0%
Hispanics 15% 26% 26.0%
Other 2% 8% 9.4%
Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).
CHANGE IN THE RACE/ETHNIC COMPOSITION OF NC PUBLIC
SCHOOLS, 2000-2009
Group2009
Enrollment 2000
Enrollment AbsoluteChange
PercentChange
Share ofNet
Change Total 1,427,960 1,268,422 159,538 12.6 100.0%AI/AN 20,378 18,651 1,727 9.6 1.2%Black 444,870 393,712 51,158 13.0 32.1%Asian 35,140 23,576 11,564 49.0 7.2%Hispanic 152,605 56,232 96,373 171.4 60.4%White 774,967 776,251 - 1,284 - 0.2
.
Source: DPI, The Statistical Profile Online
NC’s SILVER TSUNAMI
NC ABSOLUTE POPULATION CHANGE BY
AGE, 2000-2010Age All Counties
Tier 3 Counties
Tier 2 Counties
Tier 1 Counties
All Ages 1,486,170 1,088,946 327,859 69,365<25 449,385 369,818 85,481 - 5,91425-44 73,209 159,248 - 36,139 -49,90045-64 698,545 410,705 199,101 88,73965+ 265,031 149,175 79,416 36,440
COOLING WATERS FROM GRANDMA’S
WELL And Grandpa’s Too!
GRANDPARENTS LIVING WITH GRANDCHILDREN AGES 18 AND YOUNGER IN NORTH
CAROLINA 2005 2010 Percent
Change
Total Households with Grandparents
146,875 175,019 19.2
Grandparents Responsible for Grandchildren
84,232 109,602 30.1
Child's Parents in Household 43,679 67,271 54.0
The End of Men?
THE PLIGHT OF MEN
• Today, three times as many men of working age do not work at all compared to 1969.
• Selective male withdrawal from labor market—rising non-employment due largely to skills mismatches, disabilities & incarceration.
• The percentage of prime-aged men receiving disability insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009 (4.8%).
• Since 1969 median wage of the American male has declined by almost $13,000 after accounting for inflation.
• After peaking in 1977, male college completion rates have barely changed over the past 35 years.
COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010
DEGREE MALE FEMALE DIFFERENCE
Associate’s 293,000 486,000 193,000
Bachelor’s 702,000 946,000 244,000
Master’s 257,000 391,000 134,000
Professional 46,800 46,400 -400
Doctor’s 31,500 32,900 1,400
TOTAL 1,330,300 1,902,300 572,000
ENROLLMENT IN 2 YEAR COLLEGES, 2009
Area Total
Enrollment
Full Time Enrollment
(%)
Male Enrollment
(%)
Black Enrollment
(%)U.S. 20,966,826 63 43 13Southeast Region
4,731,356 65 41 23
North Carolina
574,135 64 41 24
NC- 2 Yr Colleges
253,383 43 40 25
UNC SYSTEM STUDENT ENROLLMENT BY GENDER
AND TYPE OF INSTITUTION, 2010Type of
Institution Total
Enrollment Male
Enrollment Percent
Male UNC System 175,281 76,953 44Majority Serving 139,250 63,403 46
Minority Serving 36,031 13,550 38
HBUs 29,865 11,191 37
JOBS LOST/GAINED BY GENDER DURING 2007 (Q4)
– 2009 (Q3) RECESSION Industry Women Men Construction -106,000 -1,300,000Manufacturing -106,000 -1,900,000Healthcare +451,800 +118,100Government +176,000 +12,000Total -1,700,000 -4,700,000
UNEVEN GROWTH
NC COUNTIES WITH THE LARGEST ABSOLUTE POPULATION GAINS,
2000-2010
NC COUNTIES EXPERIENCING POPULATION DECLINE, 2000-2010
GROWING DEPENDENCY A Train Wreck in the Making
DEPENDENCY RATIOS IN THE AMERICAN SOUTH
Source: Census 2010
DEPENDENCY RATES FOR SELECTED SOUTHERN STATES,
2006-2010Dependency Rate
Georgia 67.4Counties with Population Decline (31) 100.4Counties Growing 0.1-10% (44) 75.2Counties Growing 10% or more (84) 62.6
Dependency RateNorth Carolina 68.7Tier 1 90.5Tier 2 71.3Tier 3 56.6
Dependency RateAlabama 80.95 Counties with Greatest % Loss 152.55 Counties with Greatest % Gain 67.1
SHIFTING DEMOGRAPHY &POPULATION WELL-BEING
NC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEXES BY ECONOMIC TIER
DESIGNATIONAll
CountiesTier 3
CountiesTier 2
CountiesTier 1
Counties
State HDI 4.94 5.55 4.59 3.90
Health Index 4.71 4.86 3.81 3.29
Earnings Index 5.03 5.11 4.43 3.91
Education Index 4.05 3.92 3.42 2.05
RACIAL DIFFERENCES IN HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
All Counties
Tier 3 Counties
Tier 2 Counties
Tier 1 Counties
White-Black Differences in HDI
1.60 2.04 1.37 1.57
Health Index 1.79 1.93 1.29 1.23
Earnings Index 2.36 2.78 2.08 2.62
Education Index 0.90 1.41 0.74 0.86
...but Challenges Abound...but Challenges Abound
DIVERSITY RULESDIVERSITY RULES
RACIAL TYPOLOGY OF NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES, 2010
LONG TERM TRENDS IN READING ACHIEVEMENT – NC
GRADE 4
1992 1994 1998 2002 2003 2005 2007 2009160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
212 214 213
222 221217 218 219
199
186 187
202196 196 196 197
All Students Black Male Students
2228 26
2025 22 22 22
LONG TERM TRENDS IN MATH ACHIEVEMENT – NC GRADE 4
1992 1998 2002 2003 2005 2007 2009180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
213
224230
242 241 242 244
192
202
214
225 224 222 224
All Students Black Male Students
21
22
16
17 17 20 20
LONG TERM TRENDS IN READING ACHIEVEMENT – NC
GRADE 8
1998 2002 2003 2005 2007 2009220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
262265
262258 259 260
239 240 241
233 235 235
All Students Black Male Students
21 2222 19 17
19
LONG TERM TRENDS IN MATH ACHIEVEMENT – NC GRADE 8
1990 1992 1998 2002 2003 2005 2007 2009220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
250
258
268
276281 282 284 284
229
239
246252
259263
267261
All Students Black Male Students
21
2224
2219 17 23
19
...but insufficient...but insufficient
Education is NecessaryEducation is Necessary
AVERAGE SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BY
EDUCATIONEducation 1990-1993 2001-2004 % Change
Less Than High School 24.7% 23.7% -1.0
High School Graduate 40.6% 34.3% -6.3
Some College 20.7% 24.4% 3.7
Bachelor’s Degree or More 14.0% 17.6% 3.6
AVERAGE SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BY
OCCUPATIONOccupation 1990-1993 2001-2004 % Change
Blue Collar 40.5% 31.6% -8.9
Service Occupation 14.3% 16.7% 2.4
White Collar 38.5% 44.4% 5.9
THE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED, 2009
PROFESSION % OF ALL JOBLESS WORKERS
Architecture & Engineering 41.2
Management 39.0
Community & Social Services Occupations 36.1
Installation, Maintenance & Repair Work 34.9
Production Occupations 33.4
CHANGE IN INCIDENCE OF POVERTY BY EDUCATIONAL
ATTAINMENT IN NC, 2005-2007, 2008-2010 Educational
Attainment 2005-2007 2008-2010Percent Change
Less than High School 253,304 276,757 9.3%High School Graduate 216,667 234,371 8.2%Some College, Associate Degree 136,185 186,834 37.2%Bachelor’s degree or higher 49,082 57,919 18.0%
Source: American Community Survey
THE COMPETITIVE TOOL KIT
• Analytical Reasoning • Entrepreneurial Acumen• Contextual Intelligence • Soft Skills/Cultural Elasticity • Agility and Flexibility
MOVING FORWARD
• Rebrand NC as a sustainable place to live and do business
• Improve Male Education Outcomes• Augment efforts to recruit plants with strategies
to recruit people• Embrace immigrants• Recognize business development & job creation
potential of elder care economy, diverse ethnic markets, & nascent freelance economy.
May 2012 48
Global Scholars Academy
May 2012 49
Global Scholars Academy Lab School
Youth Psychological Services
UnderprivilegedYouth
Family Management
Technological Innovationsin Learning
Tutors Remediation in the Basics Mentors
NC Standard Course of Study
Health and Wellness
Entrepreneurship & Financial Literacy
GlobalAwareness
Character Education
After-school/Extended DayCultural Enrichment
Fine Arts Fitness Soft Skills Networking
Preparatory School
The North Carolina Minority Male Bridge to Success Project
African-American Male Strategic Interventions
ServicesPre-K
Intervention
4th Grade Success
Intervention
DisconnectedYouth
Intervention
Saturday College
Prep Academy
CollegeRetention
Intervention
Psychological Services / Family Supports X X X X X
Enriched Standard Course of Study X
Technology-Enhanced Remediation X X X X X
Traditional Tutoring / Mentoring X X X X X
Cultural Enrichment / Soft-Skills Training X X X X X
Networking X X X X X
Successful Pathways to OptimalDevelopment
CommunityLow QualityCaregivers
Affection
MediatingInstitutions
Protection OptimalDevelopment
School
Males ofColor
Neighborhood
Violence/Lackof Safety
Harsh/Inconsistent/IneffectiveDiscipline
Social, Cultural& Intellectual
CapitalNetworks
Family Fragile SelfIdentity
Correction
ConcentrationEffects Target Group Stressors Bridges Coping
Mechanisms Outcomes
Recruitment Strategy for GSA Bridge toSuccess Program for Black Boys 0-8
GSA/BSPfor
Black Boys0-8
GSA/Primary Colors
Early ChildhoodLearning Center
GSA K-8 CharterSchool
EducationOutcomes forProgram and
Control Groups
TargetPopulation
Pre-KInterventions
K-8Interventions
Outcomes
Logic Model For Young Boys Of Color EarlyIntervention (0 To 8 Years Old)
Inputs
Boys of color ages 0-8in attendance at GSA
Families of boys of colorat GSA
Teaching staff,administrators, andvolunteers at GSA
Activities to Improve CopingMechanisms
Conduct parent focus groups,support groups, and home-visitsand disseminate informationspecific supporting boys of colorpro-social growth anddevelopment
Engage boys in high-interestoral language, pre-academic andsocial skills activities (in-schooland afterschool) that supporttheir development of healthyracial identities
Develop an incentive-basedsavings account for each boy
Provide professionaldevelopment to educatorsthrough expert practitioners.
Assess curriculum andmaterials to ensure that isinterests and challenges boys toexcel
Leveraging corporate,community and universitypartnerships to inform design,implementation, and longitudinalevaluation
Leverage resources to securefunding for GSA
Outputs
Increase parents andcaregivers’ support for theirboys’ pro-social growth anddevelopment
Strengthen boys orallanguage, pre-academic andsocial skills, and racial identity
Concretize families ability tohelp finance their boys’ collegematriculation
Strengthen teachers’ andadministrators ability to engage,motivate, teach, and developcharacter in young boys ofcolor.
Outcomes
Problems
Boys of color aremore likely toexperience early andpersistent trauma andviolence
Boys of color are lesslikely to havenurturingcaregivers/parentsand qualifiededucators
Boys of color are lesslikely to be preparedfor school and morelikely to receiveinadequate/inappropriateeducational services
Healthy males with strongacademic, social, and characteridentities
Families that are moreemotionally-secure,knowledgeable, and engagedwith their boys, and havestronger social networks
Impact
OptimalDevelopmentHealthy andprepared to succeedin school
Positive feelingsabout school,collegematriculation, andfuture success
Strong andadaptive self-efficacy and self-regulation
Above averageperformance oncognitive.Behavioral, andemotionalassessments
Advisory panel ofacademic scholars andpractitioners
Technologicallyenhanced learningpartnerships (SAS, IBM,Carnegie Mellon, etc)
Enduring community &university partnerships toinform design,implementation andevaluation
Resources and fundingpartners for boys' higherEducation
Formalization of corporate,community and universitypartnerships
Evaluation of outcomes andimplementation
Teachers better able to teachboys of color using high boy-interest activities and materialsIncrease the number of
activities, lessons, andmaterials of high interest toboys
Use evaluation data toimprove subsequentprogramming and assessprogram impact
Each family has a collegesavings plan for their boys
Logic Model For Minority Male College Preparatory Academy Grades 9-12th
Problems- Minority males are less likely to possess positive social networks (from either their peers or lack of male presence in household)
- Minority males are more likely to experience or witness trauma and violence
-Minority males are more likely to experience disproportionate school disciplinary sanctions
- Minority males are behind their peers academically and more prone to disconnecting from school altogether
Inputs
- Males of color in Grades 9-12 - Families/guardians - Teaching staff, administrators, guidance counselors mentors, coaches - Advisory panel of academic scholars and practitioners to inform training curricula and professional development activities - Leverage technologically enhanced learning partnerships (SAS, IBM, Carnegie Mellon, etc) - Resources and funding partners for boys' higher Education
Strategies
-Offer courses and curricula that prepare students for college-level work and ensure students understand what constitutes a college-ready curriculum
-Utilize measures throughout high school to assess baseline college “preparedness” and assist them on overcoming deficiencies as identified
-Surround students with adults and peers who build and support college going and career aspirations
Provide comprehensive life/skills training to increase cultural elasticity, enhance understanding of intrests and career aptitudes, character development & personal branding
-Provide professional development to educators through expert practitioners.Increase household financial capability and opportunities to practice money management
-Leveraging partnerships to inform design, implementation and evaluation
Outputs
Concretize families ability to help finance their boys’ college matriculation Strengthen teachers’ and administrators ability to engage, motivate, teach, and develop character in young boys of color. Use evaluation data to improve subsequent programming and assess program impact Formalization of corporate, community and university partnerships Concrete evaluation design and plan for outcomes and implementation Teachers better able to teach boys of color
Outcomes
Students possess the prerequisite academic skills necessary to meet college rigor standards
Students possess strong cognitive skills and an ability to think analytically
Students strong self management skills, are organized and manage time wisely
Students possess a dense social network of peers and mentors
Student possess goal-oriented strategies for managing their personal finances.
Logic Model For Minority Male College Retention
Problems
- College unreadiness
- Institutional Culture Shock
- Poor Coping Skills
- Inadequate academic and social supports
- Loan use and abuse
- Parental/Family obligations
- Career path insecurity
Inputs
- Program staff
- Faculty
- Student Affairs
- Housing/Resident Life
- Academic Affairs Staff
- Student Organizations
- Campus Health Services
- Family Support
- Community Partners
- Student Peers
Strategies
- First-year Transition
- Academic Advising
- Assessment/Screening
- Career Planning/Placement
- Learning Assistance
- Mentoring
- Faculty Development
- Financial Aid Navigation
- Co-Curricular Services
- Mental Health/Coping Support
Outputs
- Less first-year transition
- Timely major selection
- Appropriate major selection
- Efficient course selection
- Realistic professional goals
- Higher student GPAs
- Stronger professional networks
- Less attrition in “gateway courses”
- Less finance driven attrition
- Stronger social support
- Greater resiliency
- Early warning
Outcomes
- Greater retention rates
- Higher graduation rates
- More career ready graduates
- Less debt and more financially stable
- Entrepreneurial acumen
- Possess a global perspective
THE END
Related Documents
