Disruptive Analysis - Contrarian's View of LTE

8/3/2019 Disruptive Analysis - Contrarian's View of LTE

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/disruptive-analysis-contrarians-view-of-lte 1/11

A contrarian’s view of LTE threats &opportunities

Layer123 EPC/LTE conference, London,

7th

December 2011 

[email protected] @disruptivedean

8/3/2019 Disruptive Analysis - Contrarian's View of LTE

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/disruptive-analysis-contrarians-view-of-lte 2/11

Disruptive Analysis

Founded 2002 by Dean Bubley

Analyst research, consulting & workshops

Contrarian & cross-sectoral views

Key focus areas:

Mobile broadband technology & business models “Future of Voice” 

Telco / Internet convergence

Opinions & analysis consistently 2-5 years ahead

Research reports & papers on policy, RCS, WiFi offload Upcoming report on Telco-OTT services

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011December 2011

8/3/2019 Disruptive Analysis - Contrarian's View of LTE

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/disruptive-analysis-contrarians-view-of-lte 3/11

LTE opportunity: wholesale business models

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011December 2011

8/3/2019 Disruptive Analysis - Contrarian's View of LTE

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/disruptive-analysis-contrarians-view-of-lte 4/11

Beware “Straw Man” arguments 

Time

Index Mobile broadbandtraffic

Revenue

Networks aren’t dumb, nothing grows exponentially 

8/3/2019 Disruptive Analysis - Contrarian's View of LTE

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/disruptive-analysis-contrarians-view-of-lte 5/11

Tsunami? Or just a normal s-curve high tide?

Only 8% growth QoQ for Q2 vs. Q1

Source: Vodafone 

8/3/2019 Disruptive Analysis - Contrarian's View of LTE

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/disruptive-analysis-contrarians-view-of-lte 6/11

QoS vs. QoE: any real value in network QoS?

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011December 2011

Network QoS

Radio

NNI

Mashup

Operator B 

End-to-End QoS

Quality of Experience

8/3/2019 Disruptive Analysis - Contrarian's View of LTE

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/disruptive-analysis-contrarians-view-of-lte 7/11

Many layers to achieve quality for VoLTE

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011December 2011

Overall user QoE

Experience quality

Service quality

QoS &

interoperability

• Handset UI & battery life• New voice applications• Legacy voice services

• MoS & PESQ• VoIP echo, glitches etc

• Packet-loss concealment

• Call drops & setup time• Mobility• Security

• Network availability• Interconnection & policy• Frequency support

8/3/2019 Disruptive Analysis - Contrarian's View of LTE

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/disruptive-analysis-contrarians-view-of-lte 8/11

… as the world is moving on: Voice ≠ Telephony 

Now: PSTN, 2G & 3G

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011December 2011

Voice

Telephony

Voice

Telephony

Future: Smartphones & LTE

Video, context, senseVideo

Gaming, CEBP,surveillance, social voice, TV voice etc 

VoicemailConferencing

PTT

8/3/2019 Disruptive Analysis - Contrarian's View of LTE

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/disruptive-analysis-contrarians-view-of-lte 9/11

Declining market: is there ROI for VoLTE?

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011December 2011

8/3/2019 Disruptive Analysis - Contrarian's View of LTE

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/disruptive-analysis-contrarians-view-of-lte 10/11

Policy vs. politics

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011December 2011

Strategy

Mobilebroadband

control

In-house

apps &content

Marketing / Product

ITCorenetwork

Radionetwork

Devices

Legal

Tensions 

Tensions 

Distance 

Control moves towardsto IT/charging functions

8/3/2019 Disruptive Analysis - Contrarian's View of LTE

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/disruptive-analysis-contrarians-view-of-lte 11/11

www.disruptive-analysis.com 

disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

@disruptivedean

[email protected] 

+44 (0) 7941 100016

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011December 2011