Scenario Planning
Scenario PlanningJune 152012
Scenario planning systematically examines the external
environment. These plans search for potential opportunities,
challenges, and likely future developments in areas of interest to
an organisation. The planning in this report exercise will cover
the following steps: scoping, trend analysis, building scenarios,
generating options, testing options, and the action plan. Branch
LDSL 707 Major Project 1
Table of Contents
2Table of Contents
3Intro to the 13-Step Workshop
4Scoping
5Concept Mapping
8Trend Analysis
9Driving Force Analysis
11Scenario Force Fields
13Building Scenarios
14Scenario Logics and Spaces
17WDC S.W.O.T. Analysis
18Key Steps to Scenario Planning
20Test Options
23Action Plan
27Moving Forward
28Links
28Sources Consulted
29Endnotes
Intro to the 13-Step WorkshopCAST MEMBERS: Chester Branch, Isaac
Adjei Boadi, Rebecca Janiak, Shanta Harper, Jeffrey Suderman,
Dustin Knutson, James Gorham, and Philip A FosterDisney Strategic
Labs (DSL) | Imaginer
INTERNAL MEDIA CONSULTING TEAMScenario Planning:A 13-step
workshop This guide will help participants follow the process of
the Scenario workshop in May, but also, be helpful as a guide in
decision recommendations and follow-through steps.
Scoping1. Articulate the focal issue or strategic decision (up
to 3 years out) that the scenarios are to illuminate for your
client organization.
Client name: The Walt Disney Company
Choose a time horizon for the scenarioi.e., the number of years
that the scenario will cover For the year 2037 | 25 years from
nowWhat is the question/issue you want to answer/address?Before
launching our scenario planning exercise we scoped out the
situation. Going through this process can determine if scenario
planning fits better than any other business plan. Sometimes the
issue in question may not require futures forecasting. If the issue
only involves small changes to business as usual, then another
methodology would apply. We concluded that space travel, and
investing in private space travel, qualified as a large scale
investment. For Disney, this issue was worthy of scenario planning.
The team began identifying where we were currently. From there we
projected our future goals. After honing in on our focal question,
we began our mini workshop.
Should Disney Invest in Space Tourism?
Concept Mapping 2. Create a concept map of your client
organization and their industry.
Idea
Production
Sale/Retail
Customer Use
End of Life
List the major actors that populate these competitive positions
in reference to your client organization.
Present Alliances1. Technology
2. Travel
3. Transportation
4. Food Industry
5. Education6. Hewlett Packard7. Siemens8. Kodak9. Coca-Cola10.
McDonalds11. UTV Software Communication (India)
12. Ford Motor Company
PresentCustomers1. Families2. Teenagers/Tweens3. Sports Fans4.
Science/Technology Enthusiast5. Collectors
EstablishedCompetitors1. Virgin Atlantic2. Warner
3. Universal Studios
4. Turner
5. Dream Works
6. Media Related / Television 7. Technology8. Resort Vacation
Companies / Travel Companies9. MGM10. Holy land Experience11. PBS
Kids
PotentialEntrants1. Universal Studios2. NASA3. Nickelodeon4.
Foreign Countries5. Technology (Google, Amazon, Facebook)6. Cruise
lines (Royal Caribbean) 7. Boeing8. Universities (Think-tanks,
research)9. Lockheed
PresentSubstitutes1. Universal2. Nickelodeon3. Six Flags Brand4.
Busch Gardens5. Destination Events6. Events in a Box7. Apple 8.
Virgin Atlantic9. Cruise Lines (Royal Caribbean) 10. Airlines11.
Microsoft12. Video Gaming13. Movie-Theaters IMAX 3D/4D14. Facebook
Social Media15. YouTube16. Google17. National Parks18.
Television19. Resorts
Trend Analysis
3. Brainstorm the major external trends in this industry over
the next 20 years (identify trends, consider implications, analyze
drivers).
A company needs to be in equilibrium with these external
drivers. Trend spotting simply amounts to collecting data on trends
and events as they happen. Trend analysis finds ways to stay within
that equilibrium. This highlights the crucial significance of an
organizations sense of higher ambition. Being driven by long-term
purposes, and finding where your passions profitably intersect with
your companys area of capabilities, will keep Disney sustainable
for the future.
Social: Popularity and diversity are both signs of social
force.
Technological: Technology may be the greatest single category of
change drivers that we will cope with over the next millennium.
Economy: The global economy remains a headlining issue. Chinas
purchasing power will definitely shape the next 10-20 years.
Environmental Forces: A stronger driver than climate change is the
fear of limited oil reserves. The energy that runs most of the
technology we take for granted is derived from oil. The oil shock
of the 70s spawned most of the scenario planning we see today.
Political: We see this happening in Chinese communities. Local
communities consider the state as a father figure. The state also
owns most business firms. The private firms, like Lenovo, depend in
many ways on state patronage.
Driving Force Analysis4. Identify the conditions shaping the
future over the forecast period.
Enter at least three constants in the scenario
framework:Constants (statements of fact that will not change during
the time horizon) --1. Kids
2. Technology Exists
3. Seasons
4. Aging
5. Economy Supply/Demand
6. Desire for happiness / pleasure
7. Authority Structure
8. Need for food
9. Need for Education
10. Need to connect for relationships
5. Select the driving forces outside the organization (trends,
events and issues) that are shaping the baseline future.Enter up to
three of each of the scenario driving forces:Trends ("more" or
"less") -- (describe probable futures)1. Increase in Technology
2. Cultural Stability +/-
3. National Stability +/-
4. Global Stability +/-
5. Disposable Income +/-
6. Increase in Personalization
7. Isolation/Socialization +/-
8. Changes in Isolation/Socialization +/-
9. Collaboration / Open Source +/-
10. Growth in Curiosity +/-
Issues ("Should...) (write out value questions affecting your
industry)1. Should we care about being green?
2. Should we care about product segregation? Availability to the
masses?
3. Should we care about the value of currency
4. Should we produce offshore?
5. Should we be concerned with Government Regulation?
6. Should we be Good Citizens of space?
7. Should we be concerned with personal privacy? Use/Abuse
8. Should we use space for entertainment?
Events (could be a newspaper headline in 10 years) -- (describe
possible futures)1. 2012 | Technology causes infertility
2. 2013 | WiFi Goes 5G
3. 2015 | WiFi Free
4. 2016 | Average home owns 2.2 Robots
5. 2020 | Virtual Reality 3D Video Conference Existing
6. 2020 | World Power Shortage
7. 2020 | Weight Tax Implemented
8. 2020 | Personal Computers Obsolete
9. 2021 | Cars are Obsolete
10. 2022 | Personal Computers Banned
11. 2022 | Technology Free Resorts
12. 2025 | The death of copyright
13. 2025 | 30 minute flight Atlanta to Beijing
14. 2025 | Space trash powers the globe
15. 2025 | RFID/GPS Chips Mandated
16. 2025 | Orbiting Prisons
Scenario Force Fields 6. List and rank the force fields (work
from number 5) or axes that are both highly important in their
impact and highly uncertain in their outcome (direction A & B
refer to polarities)Force Field Analysis (conduct numerous driving
vs. restraining force fields)
Which forces will allow regulation to decrease OR customization
to increase?
Building Scenarios7. Build scenario logics that represent
different continuums for the two highest ranked force fields (ie.
rank the top fields in # 6; list the top two forces in the 1 &
2 spaces below, along with their polarities) .
After various sessions of preparation we built the four
scenarios above. Our group concluded that the x axis would be
comprised of varying degrees of regulation. The y axis would be
comprised of different levels of customization. The Customized
Global Market represents the best case scenario for Disney. A
Global Monarch or Global Tyranny represents the worst case
scenario.
Scenario Logics and Spaces8. Create interesting and illustrative
2-3 word titles for each of the logics.
9. Elaborate one of the four scenario spaces or logics into a
complete story that shows how that specific scenario could
plausibly emerge from the present. (Write only one story of at
least 300 words, that corresponds to one logic)
Genie your wish is my command refers to a future that is highly
customized and with low regulations. The consumers are the
producers. [I will elaborate on the next page]Mother Gothel the
plague is in reference to the Tangled story where Gothel kept her
family separate from the rest of the world with terror. This
scenario argues that terrorism and nationalism will win out over
globalism. Sleeping Beauty One day is a spiritual subtext referring
to a group believing in something more than the physical present.
In this scenario oil shortages and identity theft forced everyone
to go low tech. They adopted a more spiritual and communal society.
Gaston Kill the Best refers to how Gaston takes over the town
violently by both demonizing and attempting to kill any opposition.
In this scenario, everyone listens to one tyrant. If anyone
opposes, they are killed. 10. Scenario Title selected: Genie
Story: Genie Scenario Your Wish is my command [High
Personalization Low Regulation]In the Genie logic space, the
current trend of Prosumerism continues to rise. This ushers in what
Richard B. Fuller predicted as the knowledge economy. People
develop innovative ways to deal with healthcare and the environment
for free. To paraphrase twitter co-founder Evan Williams, the
easier it is to share and access information, the greater the level
of goodness there is in the world.
Everyone becomes a producer and consumer of information. In the
20th century, media made us better at consuming through one-to-many
communication. In the 21st century, media has made us better at
creating and sharing through many-to-many communication.
Micro-blogs like Twitter win out over old media outlets like CNN,
FOX News, and MSNBC. Life Magazine is the first to capitalize on
this horizon change. While the old media tries to incorporate
micro-blogs in their live shows, Life magazine becomes purely a
curator of these micro-blogs. Life magazine becomes Life.com, going
completely on-line. Smart glass, Tablets, and smart totems on
street corners print Life 24/7, thereby eclipsing the old
media.
Second Life, a virtual on-line grid, partners with Life to give
everyone their own work avatar. This allows multi-national
corporations to form virtual business teams all over the world.
They meet in virtual reality and crowd source any and every product
and project.
Google and Bing compete with their Knowledge Graph and Linked
Data software to unify all content. Apple continues to have more
money in its treasury than the U.S. treasury. As soon as it becomes
the most valuable company in the world, Disney merges with Apple.
iDisney makes a grab to acquire Bing as it is winning the unified
content race. Google attempts to sue Bing on intellectual property
rights. During the biggest world court case in history, Share Alike
vs. Copyright, Amazon continues to operate under the radar. The
Amazon cloud, operating solely by user generated content, becomes
the universal content leader. Amazon acquires Life and Second Life.
After Bing wins their land mark case in 2025, copyright is declared
illegal and a hindrance to freedom by the Secretary of Justice.
Second Life develops cosmetic brain surgery. This device
replicates the brains 5 senses in the virtual world. By 2035, the
knowledge economy has been replaced with the content economy.
People barter and trade stories, experiences, and memories. You can
virtually be anywhere at any time. Disneys Space Resort partners
with Amazon becoming the biggest virtual reality market on earth.
Disney Space becomes the worlds largest space ship. It continues
travelling space to bring new experiences to its customers. 11.
Cast that story line into another form (i.e., a memo, dialogue or
news release set in the future, etc.) that illustrates how the
future might actually appear in that scenario.
.
Tony: I think Bing did steal Googles software.
Anne: Steal? How can it be stealing if they offer the software
for free?
Chess: Im kinda torn between the two concepts of share alike and
copyright.
Tony: Hey what time were they supposed to make the ruling?
Chess: I think its supposed to be now.
Anne: Im going to try to switch over and see.
[They click next]
We see a clean phone video stream of Bing lawyers smiling and
patting Gates and others on the back.
The phone whips around as we hear off screen This is a landmark
case. Bing just won the case using open-source and share alike case
studies. They even called into question the purpose of
copyright
[They click back]Chess: I cant believe Gates is still alive.
Anne: Remember when they said Microsoft was dead? Wow.
Tony: I cant believe theyre calling into question copyright.
[They click next]
Sec of Justice: For those of you who didnt click next Im
appearing here to make an announcement. After the recent Bing v.
Google ruling, the government has decided to declare Copyright
illegal. For a longer briefing on this, you can click on our
Facebook wall or upload the rulings from Wikipedia. Thank you. God
Bless.
[They click back]Chess: Did you just hear?
Anne: Yeah copyright is illegal.
Tony: remember this moment yall. This is huge.
Chess: No, I was talking about the iDisney and Amazon
partnership. Theyre now the world leader of content. Today
intellectual property died. The future is experience.
Anne: Anyone else going to the concert tonight?Tony: Yeah, Ill
be there.
Chess: Just send me the highlights. Im sleepy. Laters...
[They click next]WDC S.W.O.T. Analysis
and
Strategic Implications
12. Describe the strategic implications (S.W.O.T. analysis
below) for your clients focal issue (point #1), in view of your
selected (point #9-10) long-term scenario.
1. WDC is among the most popular brand names in the world. They
are ranked among the top 10 global brands. 2. They have high
operation costs. The poor working conditions in factories around
the world could pose a huge PR problem as people become more
globally aware. And their top management changes often. 3. They
show potential to continue marketing in untapped countries. App
gaming programs and UGC (user generated content) promises to reduce
costs for production in the future. Expanding resorts and parks to
include virtual rides promises more Disney themed attractions.
4. More culture clashes in the future could erupt. Nationalism
and terrorism could break out all over the world. Disney also faces
steep competition from Paramount and Universal. Key Steps to
Scenario Planning13. Describe what you learned about the future
that you did not know, understand or realize before you did this
exercise.
We learned successful ways to plan for the future.Ten Tips for
Successful Scenarios
1. Stay focused
2. Keep it simple
3. Keep it interactive
4. Plan to plan and allow enough time
5. Don't settle for a simple high, medium and low
6. Avoid probabilities or 'most likely' plots
7. Avoid drafting too many scenarios
8. Invent catchy names for the scenarios
9. Make the decision makers own the scenarios
10. Budget sufficient resources for communicating the
scenarios
...and some traps to avoid
Don't treat scenarios as forecasts
Don't construct scenarios based on too simplistic a difference -
such as optimistic and pessimistic
Make the scenarios global enough in scope
Ensure you focus the scenarios in areas of potential impact on
the enterprise
Treat scenarios as an informational or instructional tool rather
than for participative learning and/or direct strategy
formation
Ensure adequate process for engaging management teams in the
scenario planning process
Don't stint on the imaginative stimulus in the scenario
design
Use experienced, or at least well-briefed, facilitator(s)
So far, this report has covered steps 1-4. It will now delve
into steps 5 and 6.
Test Options
Identify and discuss potential implications and impacts of
scenarios.
This SWOT graph below illustrates how to potentially wind tunnel
some of the major threats.
A. With your high brand recognition and gaming partnerships, you
can create API space themed adventures. B. Expand your global heath
and home furnishing missions to factories.C. Use social media
outlets and situational leadership to break down cultural divide.
[On page 21-22, I will elaborate on this as a wind tunnel
exercise].D. Work with NGOs to develop a Global Code of Conduct.
Wind Tunnelling Quadrant C A real potential threat in the near
future is more war in the Middle East. This could cause nations all
over to shrink back from a Global mindset and towards a more
nationalist perspective. Terrorism could spark distrust. Oil
reserves could be cut off. This could threaten our very livelihood,
let alone investment plans in Disney Space.
While this has potential to shake up our Disneys futures model,
Disney has the ability to weather through these culture clash
storms.They learned from the mirror trap in Euro Disney. Now they
hire native marketing managers to work within their overseas
companies. Theres also a situational leadership approach that can
be applied to different cultures.
Global leaders should listen and adapt as they engage with
different cultures. Doing this enables all members to more
effectively understand the basis of their own behaviour and more
meaningfully and successfully enhance relationships with one
another. Hersey and Blanchard, pioneers of situational leadership,
have divided cultural environments into four distinct categories of
directive and supportive behaviours. There method works on both a
local and global scale.
Where a culture rests on the context scale above determines the
best approach. Ting-Toomey and Kurogis face framework serves as a
coherent counterpart to the Hersey and Blanchard categories.
Ting-Toomey has created several variations of this model but they
all essentially represent the same four faces. While Ting-Toomey
and Kurogi use four categories to describe these high and
low-context cultures, Hersey and Blanchard use four categories to
describe how global leaders should best approach these context
cultures. The more face-giving cultures defend and support the
other persons need for inclusion. Face-giving cultures have a
collective mindset and desire defined roles that will include
everyone. A telling approach to leadership complements this
culture. Face-assertion focuses more on the individuals desire to
have a role in the group. Some individuals in the culture may feel
like outsiders. This leadership will use a selling approach to
reassure them that they belong.
Face-saving cultures fight for other people to have freedom and
space. This culture, often found in the West, requires a more
participatory approach. These leaders do not involve themselves in
the day-to-day tasks. A hands-off approach focuses more on bringing
out the skills of the group through listening, praising, asking for
input, and giving feedback. Face-restoration ranks the lowest among
the context cultures. In this culture, each individual fights for
more autonomy. Leaders in this culture take more of a delegating
approach. At this point the leader lets his followers run their own
show because the workers have a crystal clear understanding of the
goals.Social media methods are currently at work to prevent these
kinds of nationalist scenarios. The social media strategies Disney
has access to could also bridge the institutionalized enmity. But
even if the political leaders attempt to black out forms of social
media diplomacy, sources like twitter have created work around
software for offline diplomacy between countries.[speak to tweet
endnote] In the case that none of these acts of diplomacy work,
Disney and Playdom could potentially work on social gamming
projects that will discover renewable forms of energy that surpass
the value of oil.
Action Plan
What should we do (or not do) to be successful in this
scenario?
To make strategic preparations for the Genie scenario we should
use long tail transmedia storytelling. This way, the story worlds
that Disney currently controls can be expanded to such an extent
that second life avatars can be created for hard core fans to
enjoy. The Avengers is a great example. They used several of these
marketing tactics to get people in theatre during their historical
box-office week end. But they also need to continue spinning that
story off into rebooted comics, video games, fan-fiction, and
Netflix Avengers Series. For example, their Avengers Assemble
cartoon was released to Netflix before the film. But it appears the
series only served as an animated version of the live action movies
that have already come out. The series should have continued. There
should still be new episodes playing the same time the movie is
out. They should also have more fan-fiction involvement, creating
potentially new characters that could appear in the Avengers
sequel. There should be ARGs for the sequel. These strategies could
launch a deeper Thor universe for Disney Space.
Another strategy for the Genie scenario would be the Blue Ocean
Strategy. Nadler & Tushman argue that the last source of
competitive advantage lies in the organizational design. Keidel
makes the case that by seeing organizational patterns, one can
prevent competitive disadvantage and leverage a competitive
advantage in said organizations favour. Kim and Mauborgnes Blue
Ocean Strategy shows how innovation oftentimes supersedes the so
called competitive advantage.
If Amazon is truly the future leader of content, this strategy
will benefit Disney in two ways. Disney and Viacom have been
competing with each other to grab shares of the mobile gaming
market. Nick/Viacom launched addictinggames.com for the iphone.
Disney also launched mobile games for iphone, driod, blackberry and
Java Brew. Instead of competing in a flooded market, Disney could
work with the new Amazon Smartphone and not only capture a new
market place but also begin a long-term partnership with them.
The picture above metaphorically represents three dials or gears
on a giant wheel of innovation and creativity. If you speed up
those dials of crowd, light, and desire, the wheel of creativity
and innovation turns faster.
Although bigger crowds bring in more innovation, the crowds are
mostly composed of other kinds of people. Each person represents an
invaluable component to the process. Anderson says the light speaks
to the willingness to share and open up your project in these
social media outlets. This is called liquid networking. Once the
sharing reaches large social media audiences, it is either ignored
or applauded. Positive feedback dials up the desire.
People continue to share out of a desire for global recognition
from the crowd of commenters, trend-spotters, and cheerleaders. It
then becomes a perpetual, self-fuelling machine. It is also a
self-cleaning machine because the bad ideas lose the crowd and
light or quickly collaborate and improve. This is becoming the new
medium for both indie and mainstream film companies. Cisco
estimates that by as soon as 2013, 90% of all IP traffic will be
video sharing.
Jonathan Chu is a filmmaker and screenwriter best known for
directing dance films like Step Up 2 and 3. What he noticed online
was the CAI method working with dancers on YouTube. Kids in Japan
were watching dance videos and building on them. People in Detroit
and California would then watch these and remix them. Chu called
this a global laboratory. He eventually recruited the most
innovative artists on YouTube and formed LXD. LXD became one of the
most popular a web series ever launched on Hulu. Hulu is partially
owned by the Walt Disney Company.
They could use this same method for developing characters and
stories through social gaming and fan-fiction. Through
crowd-sourcing, Disney could create new space themed story worlds
for Disney Dream and eventually Disney Space. In 2011-12 Disney
joined the cruise lines as an expansion of the Disney Parks and
Resorts. They developed Disney Dream and Disney Fantasy. The
interior cabins of the Dream already have virtual portholes that
allow voyagers to see action outside of the ship, as well as a few
beloved Disney characters floating by the window. The ship also
features a high-tech teen lounge. This sets the stage for similar
virtual scenarios with the Space Disney experience.
Moving Forward
We must always bear in mind that scenarios do not represent
truths - they are based on what we know about what is happening. We
must continue to monitor trends. According to Mintzberg when
companies understand the difference between planning and strategic
thinking, they can get back to what the strategy-making process
should be. Today, instead of looking straight ahead, companies also
pay attention to peripheral S.T.E.E.P. developments. Many companies
are still late at picking up on the signals. For example, Microsoft
missed out on open software and GE missed out on LED traffic
lights. The privatization of space travel has emerged as one of
those peripheral developments where Disneys passions could
profitably intersect with their current areas of capabilities. This
investment could potentially make Disney sustainable in the distant
future.
Links
JISC Users and Innovation Programme,
[http://www.jisc.ac.uk/whatwedo/programmes/programme_users_and_innovation.aspx].JISC
Tools for Scenario
Planninghttp://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/tools/scenario-planning/potentialSources
ConsultedPeter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View (New York:
Doubleday, 1991).Jenny Beery; Esther Eidinow; Nancy Murphy
(Editors) The Mont Fleur Scenarios. Deeper News (Vol 7, No 1.
1992)Gaston Berger, Phnomnologies du Temps et Prospectives (Paris:
Presse Universitaires de France, 1964).Peter Bishop; Andy Hines;
Terry Collins,The Current State of Scenario Development. Foresight
(March 2007): 5-25. Bertrand de Jouvenel, The Art of Conjecture
(New York: Basic Books, 1967). Hugues de Jouvenel, An Invitation to
Foresight. Futuribles Perspectives, (Special Issue 2004).J
Diffenbach, Corporate Environmental Analysis in Large US
Corporations. Long Range Planning (16, 3 1984): 107-116.Liam Fahey;
Robert M. Randall (eds), Learning from the Future: Competitive
Foresight Scenarios.(New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1998).Michel
Godet, Scenarios and Strategic Management (London: Butterworth
Scientific, 1987).Mchel Godet, Creating Futures (London: Economica,
2006). Herman Kahn; A. J. Weiner, The Year 2000: A Framework for
Speculation on the Next Thirty Years (New York: Macmillan,
1967).Elzbieta Krawczyk; John Ratcliffe, Imagine Ahead, Plan
Backwards Futures Academy, Dublin Institute of Technology (January
2005).
Pentti Malaska; Ilkka Virtanen, Theory of Futuribles Futura
(February 2005): 10-28.
Joe Willmore, Scenario Planning: Creating Strategy for Uncertain
Times Information Outlook (September 2001). Endnotes
Parks/Resorts: Universal, Royal Caribbean
Consumer Products: Viacom
Media Networks: FOX, CBS
Studio Entertainment: Time Warner
Interactive Media: Viacom
Scenario Planning: Key Characteristics
A methodology for strategy development useful for organisations,
programmes or projects acting in a highly dynamic environment
taking complex and often risky decisions
Provides rigour as well as opportunities to draw upon the
creativity of those involved, resulting in new views and
interpretations on important external developments
Typically involves the development of visual representations of
possible futures
Creative yet structured approach is popular with marketing
managers, programme managers and product developers that are
looking for new markets, ideas, services or projects.
For more, see the REF _Ref327372136 \h Links on HYPERLINK
"http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/tools/scenario-planning/potential"
page 28.
The quadrants above correspond to the quadrants on page 13.
These were the conditions our group brainstormed during the
workshop.
Youll notice that these events begin to fit within certain
groups, categories, or trends.
These are possible stories that would make the headlines.
And behind those broad, external, trends are very specific
driving forces.
RECAP
The following is a live, Chatroulette-style, 2025 Airtime
stream. from2025
Airtime.com is a live video chat format in association with
Facebook. It is continually being re-tooled.
The initial difference between this and Skype is that clicking
next could send you to someone outside of your social graph.
Eventually this may be used as switching channels of live
real-time interviews.
That is to say, Im live chatting with my friends and I want more
info on the subject were discussing. If I click next, Ill get
linked to someone documenting/reporting on the issue.
In this scenario it is a landmark court case: Bing v.
Google.
These 2 force field models are more attenuated versions of the
ones the group made during the workshop.
All of the 5 Major Categories mentioned in the workshop touch on
the 5 Walt Disney Company (WDC) Markets:
Media Networks
Parks/Resorts
Studio Entertainment
Consumer Products
Interactive Media
*Adapted from Dr. Gary handouts given in the LDSL 707 Residency,
May 7-12, 2012. Dr. Jay Gary adapted his handout from a book by P.
Schwartz called The Art of the Long View and handouts from Dr.
Peter Bishop. Dr. Bishops handouts are based on the GBN Scenario
method.
Porters 5 Forces
Porters 5
This was the question we worked from.
Michael Porter, The Five Competitive Forces That Shape Strategy.
HYPERLINK "http://www.hbr.org" www.hbr.org January, 2008, HYPERLINK
"http://hbr.org/2008/01/the-five-competitive-forces-that-shape-strategy/ar/1"
http://hbr.org/2008/01/the-five-competitive-forces-that-shape-strategy/ar/1
Thomas Chermack, Scenario Planning in Organizations (San
Francisco: Berret-Koehler, 2011), 103.
Michael Beer, Higher Ambition (Boston: Harvard Business Review
Press, 2011)166-167, compare with Bulke, CEO of Nestle, on page
98.
Thomas Chermack, Scenario Planning in Organizations (San
Francisco: Berret-Koehler, 2011), 104.
Gail Tverberg, The Reality is, Our Economy Runs on Oil and We
Need More HYPERLINK "http://www.businessinsider.com"
www.businessinsider.com 7 February, 2012, HYPERLINK
"http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-02-07/home/31011725_1_crude-oil-oil-prices-oil-consumption"
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-02-07/home/31011725_1_crude-oil-oil-prices-oil-consumption
George S. Day; Paul J. Shoemaker, Peripheral Vision (Boston:
Harvard Business School Press, 2006), 33. Also see Matthew R.
Simmons, Twilight in the Desert (New York: John Wiley & Sons,
2005).
Ian Jeffries, Economic Developments in Contemporary China (New
York: Taylor and Francis, 2011), 499.
Mats Lindgren; Hans Banhold, Scenario Planning (New York:
Palgrave Mamillan, 2003), 117.
Richard B. Fuller, Critical Path (New York: St. Martins Press,
1981), 200 202.
Gabe Zichermann; Christopher Cunningham, Gamification by Design
(Sebatopol: O Reilly Media, 2011).
Clay Shirky, Cognitive Surplus (New York: Penguin Press, 2010),
See A New Resource.
Keith Stuart, Smart Glass, Xbox 360 and the battle for the
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Reccomended Citation | Chester Elijah Branch, Space Disney:
Scenario Planning Report Parables Today (June 2012).Parables Today:
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