18 • Discrete Space-Time Options Pricing fsrforum • jaargang 12 • editie #5 Discrete Space-Time Options Pricing • 19 Discrete Space-Time Options Pricing Ilya Gikhman This paper presents a formal ap- proach to the derivatives pricing. In this paper we will study derivatives pricing in a discrete space-time approximation. The primary princi- ple of the pricing theory we intro- duce in the paper is the notion of equality of investment which based on the investors goal : ‘investing in a greater return’. We say that two investments are equal at a moment of time if their instantaneous rates of return at this moment at are equal. If equality of two investments holds any moment of time over [ t , T ] then these investments are equal on [ t , T ]. This definition represents investment equality, IE law or principle which will be applied throughout of the paper for definition of a derivative price. Next we use cash flow notion that implies a series of transactions as a specifi- cation of somewhat broad notion of investment. It is not difficult to see that this concept of the investment equality is a perfect and more accurate than the present value, PV concept. Indeed, if two investments are equal in IE sense then they are equal for any possible scenario or simply to say always. On the other hand, it is clear that if two investments are equal in IE sense then they are equal in the PV. The inverse statement is incor- rect. More accurately, if two investments are equal in the PV sense then it is easy to present exam- ple of a scenario that demonstrates arbitrage opportunity. In this example, the present value of two investments are equal while one investment has a higher rate of return over a time subinter- val and lower over another subinterval than other investment. As far as PV suggests equal price for two investments one can sell a lower rate instrument over the correspondent subinterval and buy the instrument with higher rate of return instrument. Then at the end of this period investor would sell short higher priced instrument which promises lower rate of return over the next period and buy for lower price other instrument which promises higher rate of return. At the end of the period the investor has pure profit for the scenario though two investments have equal PV. This type of the example illustrates the fact that PV reduction of cash flows insufficient to be used as a definition of the equality of two cash flows. Nevertheless, PV reduction might be helpful for construction of the market estimates of the spot or future prices. Bearing in mind that price def- inition depends on a scenario we should be aware that any spot price calculated with the help of PV or other rule implies risk. This risk for buyer is measured by the probability of the events for which scenario’s price is bellow than spot price. 1. Plain Vanilla options valuation. Let us introduce the definition of the plain vanilla option contracts which is a class option cov- ered European and American types. An option is a right to buy or sell an asset at a known price, within a given period of time. The known price, K is called exercise or strike price. The last date, T of the lifetime of the option is called maturity. The right to buy is known as the call option, while the right to sell is the put option. The price of the option also referred to as premium. European options can only be exercised at maturity, whereas American type of the options can be exercised at any moment up to maturity. Let S ( t ) denote an asset spot price at date t, t 0. For- mally an European option contract is defined by its payoff at expiration. The call and put values at expiration T are defined by formulas C ( T , S ( T ) ) = max { S ( T ) – K , 0 } (1.1) P ( T , S ( T ) ) = max { K – S ( T ) , 0 } Thus, a buyer of the call option would agree to exercise the right to buy the underlying asset in case if the value of the call option at maturity T is positive, i.e. if C ( T , S ( T ) ) > 0. It is clear that there is no sense in realization of the right when C ( T , S ( T ) ) 0. On the other hand a buyer of the put option would exercise the right to sell the underlying asset in case if S ( T ) < K, i.e. a put holder is interested to sell asset with price S ( T ) for K when S ( T ) < K. That is a holder of the put option can exercise the right to sell the option when P ( T , S ( T ) ) > 0. Otherwise, if P ( T , S ( T ) ) 0 the right will not be exercised. The option pricing problem is to determine the call ( put ) option price at any moment of time t before the expiration date T. To illustrate pricing methodology we begin with a simple example. Next we use the terms asset, stock, or secu- rity as synonyms. Example 1. Let a stock price at t = 0 be S ( 0 ) = 2 and at T = 1 stock take the values S ( 1 ) = { 5 , 1 }. Introduce the probability space of scenarios of the problem. Denote ω = { u , d }, where u denotes the scenario { S ( 0 ) = 2, S ( 1 ) = 5 }, and d = { S ( 0 ) = 2, S ( 1 ) = 1 }. Putting strike price K = 2 we enable to define the call option price for each scenario. Denote C ( t , x ; T , K , ) the value of the call option for fixed scenario at the moment t , given S ( t ) = x. Here t , x are variables of the function C ( ), while T, K, are interpreted as parameters. The value of param- eters T and K are assumed to be fixed and for the writing simplicity we will omit them next. Let us specify the value of the option along the scenario u . Applying IE principle we arrive at the equation with respect to unknown C ( t = 0 , S ( 0 ) = 2 ; u ) The solution of the equation is C ( 0 , 2 ; u ) = 1.2. Then as far as the option payoff for the scenario u is max { 1 - 2 , 0 } = 0 we put by definition C ( 0 , 2 ; d ) = 0. There is no sense to pay for the option a sum if option value in the future moment is 0. Therefore, by definition we put C ( 0 , 2 ; d ) = 0. The security distribution is the probabilities of the two scenarios: P u = P ( u ), P d = P ( d ). This distribution is assigned then to the option premium. Thus Let us consider two stocks that have probabilities P 1 ( u ) = P 2 ( d ) = 0.99 and P 1 ( d ) = P 2 ( u ) = 0.01 correspondingly. The call option price is the random variable taking values : C i ( 0 , 2 ; u ) = 1, C i ( 0 , 2 ; d ) = 0 , i = 1, 2. Then *) The average rate of return on 1 st stock is equal to 1.48 and – 0.43 on 2 nd stock. **) The average rate of return on call option written on 1 st stock while the average rate of return on call option written on the 2 nd stock is equal to 1.5 %. Assume that market price at t = 0 is equal to the mean of the option at this moment. The expectations of the options price on the 1 st and the 2 nd stocks at t = 0 are c 1 ( 0 , 2 ) = E C 1 ( 0 , 2 ; ) = 1.2 × 0.99 = 1.188 c 2 ( 0 , 2 ) = E C 2 ( 0 , 2 ; ) = 1.2 × 0.01 = 0.012 Other possible estimate of the spot option prices can be based on the PV concept. Assuming that the risk free inter- est is equal to 0 we see that » As far as PV suggests equal price for two investments one can sell a lower rate instrument over the correspondent subinterval and buy the instrument with higher rate of return instrument. We say that two investments are equal at a moment of time if their instantaneous rates of return at this moment are equal. The difference between possible spot prices is the value of risk taken by investors.