Discrepancies Discrepancies Between Satellite Between Satellite Detection and Detection and Forecast Model Forecast Model Results of Ash Cloud Results of Ash Cloud Transport: Transport: Case Study of the Case Study of the 2001 Eruption of Mt. 2001 Eruption of Mt. Cleveland Volcano, Cleveland Volcano, Alaska Alaska David Schneider, USGS-Alaska Volcano Observatory David Schneider, USGS-Alaska Volcano Observatory Rene Servranckx, Environment Canada, Montreal Rene Servranckx, Environment Canada, Montreal VAAC VAAC Jeff Osiensky, National Weather Service, Jeff Osiensky, National Weather Service,
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Discrepancies Between Satellite Detection and Forecast Model Results of Ash Cloud Transport: Case Study of the 2001 Eruption of Mt. Cleveland Volcano,
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Discrepancies Between Discrepancies Between Satellite Detection and Satellite Detection and Forecast Model Results Forecast Model Results of Ash Cloud Transport: of Ash Cloud Transport:
Case Study of the 2001 Case Study of the 2001 Eruption of Mt. Cleveland Eruption of Mt. Cleveland Volcano, AlaskaVolcano, Alaska
David Schneider, USGS-Alaska Volcano ObservatoryDavid Schneider, USGS-Alaska Volcano Observatory
Rene Servranckx, Environment Canada, Montreal VAACRene Servranckx, Environment Canada, Montreal VAAC
Jeff Osiensky, National Weather Service, Anchorage VAACJeff Osiensky, National Weather Service, Anchorage VAAC
Motivation/BackgroundMotivation/Background
• The understanding that total avoidance of ash clouds is required but confusion about what is meant by (or how to achieve) “zero tolerance”.
• A realization that operational decisions typically involve resolving conflicts between data sources.
• How should warnings and info releases utilize model results, satellite data, and observer reports? What is the proper “weight” to give each when they are in conflict?
• The question of how long to keep a warning going
• A look at the 1991 eruption of Cleveland volcano will illustrate these issues, but not answer any of these questions.
Location MapLocation Map
R. Wessels
Cleveland VolcanoCleveland Volcano
AnchorageAnchorage
• About 900 miles from Anchorage; 5675 ft high.
• Eruption in 2001 is the largest from a seismically unmonitored volcano since the formation of AVO in 1988.
Summary of February 19 EruptionSummary of February 19 Eruption• Eruption detected in AVHHR satellite image as part of
routine monitoring by an AVO remote sensing analyst, about 3 hours after the eruption start.
• Ash production for about 6 hours, and detected in GOES satellite images for 48 hours.
• No Color Code issued by AVO for Cleveland because of the lack of a seismic monitoring network (policy since changed).
• Combined response of 3 VAACS (Anchorage, Washington, and Montreal), Anchorage Center Weather, and the AVO. Pointed out a need for additional tools to facilitate collaboration (VACT).
• PUFF: Anchorage VAAC and AVO• Canerm: Montreal VAAC• Vaftad: Washington VAAC
• Although there are differences between the models, they are typically in general agreement.
• Ash particles are essentially tracers of flow in the atmosphere, and output is influenced by a number of factors. The ash is predicted, not detected.