Disclaimer

DisclaimerDisclaimer

Much of the information presented is based on PB work for NCHRP 20-24(59). Contractor’s work is in progress and is not a NCHRP report nor does it represent the panel’s views.

The NCHRP work is intended to inform AASHTO members' policy-development discussions and does not include making recommendations on matters of policy.

Climate Change is Real Climate Change is Real and Poses Major Risksand Poses Major Risks

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal…”

-- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

“An overwhelming body of scientific evidence paints a clear picture: climate change is happening, it is caused in large part by human activity, and it will have many serious and potentially damaging effects in the decades ahead.”

-- Pew Center on Climate Change

Projected Impacts ofProjected Impacts of Climate ChangeClimate Change

150 Global Firms 150 Global Firms Seek Mandatory Cuts in Seek Mandatory Cuts in

Greenhouse Gas EmissionsGreenhouse Gas Emissions

Coca Cola, General Electric, Shell, Nestle, Nike, DuPont, Johnson & Johnson, British Airways, Shanghai Electric, et al.

Said that the scientific evidence for climate change is “now overwhelming”

Called for a legally binding agreement to “provide business with the certainty it needs to scale up global investment in low-carbon technologies”

November 11, 2007

Public Concern isPublic Concern is Substantial and GrowingSubstantial and Growing

60% -- effects of global warming are already happening

11% -- the predicted effects of global warming are unlikely

78% -- make homes more energy efficient 77% -- ride mass transit whenever possible 71% -- install solar panels on homes62% -- buy hybrid cars58% -- more drastic measures are needed

-- Gallup Survey of Americans, April 2007

GHG Targets Are DauntingGHG Targets Are DauntingClimate scientists 80% below 1990 by 2050California, Montana, Florida 80% below 1990 by 2050Oregon 75% below 1990 by 2050Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island

75-85% below 2001 by 2050

Colorado 80% below 2005 by 2050New Mexico 75% below 2000Climate Security Act (Lieberman-Warner) S.2191

Up to 66% below current levelsby 2050

Global Warming Reduction Act (Kerry-Snowe) S.485

62% below 1990 by 2050

Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act (McCain-Lieberman) S.280

60% below 1990 by 2050

United Kingdom 60% below 1990 by 2050

9

U.S. GHG Emissions by Sector (1990-2005)U.S. GHG Emissions by Sector (1990-2005)

Source: INVENTORY OF U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SINKS: 1990-2005 (April 2007) Fast Facts USEPA #430-F-07-004

Transportation is 28% of U.S. GHG – and Rising

Rail, 43

Waterborne, 58

Air, 171

Heavy Vehicles, 350

Light Vehicles, 1113

Pipeline/Other, 47 Internat'l./Bunker, 84

U. S. Transportation Carbon Emissions by Mode, 2003 (Million metric tons CO2)

Highway Vehicles, Especially Passenger Cars and Light Trucks, Account for 78%

of Transportation C Emissions

Transportation GHG Reduction Transportation GHG Reduction

is a is a FourFour-legged Stool-legged StoolThe 3-legged stool:

– Vehicles– Fuels– VMT

The 4th leg:– Vehicle/System Operations

11stst & 2 & 2ndnd Legs: Legs: Vehicles & FuelsVehicles & Fuels

50% cut in GHG/mile is feasible by 2030 from conventional technologies and biofuels

Almost complete decarbonization of transport vehicles/fuels by 2050 is a “realistic ambition,” with advanced technology/fuels

Electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are promising paths to decarbonization – but many technology and economic issues must be overcome

Low CO2 electric plants are key to low CO2 electric vehicles

Actual and Projected GHG Emissionsfor New Passenger Vehicles by Country,

2002-2018

33rdrd Leg: Leg: VMTVMT

• Slowing U.S. VMT growth to 1% annually may be necessary to meet GHG targets

Alternative Scenarios for U.S. Light Duty Vehicle 2050 CO2 Emissions

1210

377

471

760

949

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2005 Scenario 1:100 mpgge fleet

1.0% ann. VMT growth

Scenario 2:100 mpgge fleet

1.5% ann. VMT growth

Scenario 3:50 mpgge fleet

1.0% ann. VMT growth

Scenario 4:50 mpgge fleet

1.5% ann. VMT growth

Scenarios

Mill

ion

Met

ric T

ons

CO2

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Mill

ion

Met

ric T

ons

CO2

70% Below 2005 Levels in 2050 (363 Million Metric Tons CO2)

33rdrd Leg: Leg: VMT (continued)VMT (continued)

1% VMT growth allows increase in VMT/capita (pop growth = 0.9%/year)

In near-mid term, slower VMT growth is especially valuable to GHG targets

VMT growth is already slowing down, due to fuel prices and demographic changes

44thth Leg: Leg: Vehicle/System OperationsVehicle/System Operations

10-20% LDV GHG reduction potential: Manage speed (40-50 MPH is optimal) Reduce congestion, accel-decel ITS to reduce poor signal timing could

reduce 1.315 MMT CO2/yr 55 MPH speed limit + enforcement

could reduce road fuel use 2-4% Reduce idling and encourage “eco

driving” by drivers

What About Federal Cap and What About Federal Cap and Trade Legislation?Trade Legislation?

S.2191 (Lieberman-Warner): Imposes a declining cap on GHG for power

plants, oil importers and refiners, industrial sources

Reduces U.S. GHG 66% below 2005 levels by 2050

Has lower effect on transportation GHG Increases energy prices, with gas prices

$1.40 higher by 2050 Allocates $171 billion to transit over 38 years Lowers U.S. GDP 0.9-3.8% in 2050

Prices Are Key toPrices Are Key to GHG ReductionGHG Reduction

Higher energy prices are essential to promote energy conservation and new technologies in all sectors

In transport, pricing can be powerful:- PAYD Insurance- Mileage fees- Parking pricing- Congestion pricing

- Vehicle “feebates”

Fleet Characteristics Influenced by Fiscal Incentives

What About Land Use?What About Land Use?

“It is realistic to assume a 30 percent cut in VMT with compact development.”

“… smart growth could …reduce total transportation-related CO2 emissions from current trends by 7 to 10 percent as of 2050.”

Assumes: – 67% of development in place in 2050 is new or rehab– 60-90% of that development is “smart growth” (equivalent to

15 housing units per acre)

-- “Growing Cooler” by ULI, CCAP, et al, 2007

What About Transit?What About Transit?

• Transit serves 1% of PMT and 0% freight in the U.S.

• APTA: Transit reduced GHG by 6.9 MMT in 2005* (1/3 of 1% of U.S. transportation GHG)

• European Ministers of Transport caution: • “Modal shift policies are usually weak in terms of the

quantity of CO2 abated …. Modal shift measures can be effective when well targeted, particularly when integrated with demand management measures. They can not, however, form the corner-stone of effective CO2 abatement policy…..”

* APTA includes 3.0 MMT reduction for transit’s effect on congestion reduction

What About Transit?What About Transit?(Continued)(Continued)

Has huge popular support Serves other goals Is seen as key to land use changes In Gallup survey, 77% cite transit as

GHG strategy

Many States Are DevelopingMany States Are Developing Aggressive Climate Action PlansAggressive Climate Action Plans

State Climate Action Plans – Transportation Elements Are All Over the Map

State Year VehicleLow

Carbon Fuels

Smart Growth and

TransitOther

AZ 2020 40% 7% 25% 28%CA 2020 54% 6% 38% 2%CO 2020 40% 26% 22% 13%MT 2020 61% 24% 8% 7%NM 2020 31% 21% 16% 31%OR 2025 80% 14% 6% 0%WA 2020 8% 23% 64% 5%

Statewide Climate Action Plans –Transportation Elements are All Over the Map

State Year VehicleLow

Carbon Fuels

Smart Growth and

TransitOther

MN 2025 15% 35% 25% 25%NC 2020 35% 12% 38% 15%SC 2020 14% 55% 29% 1%CT 2020 51% 38% 8% 2%ME 2020 53% 25% 21% 1%MD 2025 24% 12% 45% 20%NY 2020 59% 11% 27% 4%PA 2025 45% 36% 18% 0%RI 2020 46% 10% 31% 14%VT 2028 21% 14% 49% 17%

How Much Will it Cost to How Much Will it Cost to Reduce GHG?Reduce GHG?

-- McKinsey & Company

Four Views onFour Views on Reducing Transportation GHGReducing Transportation GHG

1. David Greene and Andreas Schaefer, for Pew Center on Climate Change (2003)

2. European Council of Ministers of Transport (2006)

3. Sir Isaac Stern, “The Stern Report to the U.K. Government” (2007)

4. ULI “Growing Cooler” report (2007)

1. David Greene and 1. David Greene and Andreas Schaefer,Andreas Schaefer,

for Pew Centerfor Pew Center A comprehensive, tailored set of policies could cut U.S. transportation

GHG in half by 2030

Greene & Schafer (Pew Center, 2003) concluded that a Greene & Schafer (Pew Center, 2003) concluded that a comprehensive, tailored set of strategies could cut U.S. comprehensive, tailored set of strategies could cut U.S.

transportation emissions in half by 2030.transportation emissions in half by 2030.

Sources of Transportation GHG Reductions, 2015 and 2030

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Tota

l < S

um o

f Com

pone

nts

Information andEducation.SystemsInfrastructurePricingCarbon CapHydrogen

Low-Carbon FuelsAir EfficiencyHeavy Duty Truck Effic.

LDV Efficiency

2015 2030

Source: Greene and Schafer, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, May 2003.

“The most effective measures available include fuel taxes, vehicle and component standards, differentiated vehicle taxation, support for eco-driving and incentives for more efficient logistic organization, including point of use pricing for roads. “

“More integrated transport and spatial planning policies might contain demand for motorized transport.”

Mode shifts … cannot … form the corner-stone of effective CO2 abatement policy and the prominence given to modal shift policies is at odds with indications that most modal shift policies achieve much lower abatement levels than measures focusing on fuel efficiency.”

“Ultimately higher cost energy sources …. will be required if there are to be further cuts in transport sector CO2 emissions.”

2. European Council of 2. European Council of Ministers of Transport (2006)Ministers of Transport (2006)

“Transport is one of the more expensive sectors to cut emissions from because the low carbon technologies tend to be expensive and the welfare costs of reducing demand for travel are high.”

“Transport will be among the last sectors to bring its emissions down below current levels.”

“ [I]n the period beyond 2100, total GHG emissions will have to be just 20% of current levels. It is impossible to imagine how this can be achieved without a decarbonized transport sector.”

3. “Stern Review”3. “Stern Review” for U.K. Government (2007)for U.K. Government (2007)

“…the U.S. transportation sector cannot do its fair share … through vehicle and fuel technology alone. We have to find a way to sharply reduce the growth in vehicle miles driven….”

“Require transportation conformity for GHG”

“Enact “Green-TEA” transportation legislation that reduces GHGs… yet another paradigm shift… further address environmental performance, climate protection, and green development”

“Provide funding directly to MPOs”

-- Similar recommendations are in Brookings reports

4. ULI “Growing Cooler” 4. ULI “Growing Cooler” Report, 2007Report, 2007

Climate Adaptation Will be as Climate Adaptation Will be as Important as GHG ReductionImportant as GHG Reduction

“Climate change will affect transportation primarily through increases in several types of weather and climate extremes… very hot days; intense precipitation events; intense hurricanes; drought; and rising sea levels, coupled with storm surges and land subsidence.”

“The impacts …. will be widespread and costly in both human and economic terms and will require significant changes in the planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of transportation systems.”

-- TRB Special Report, March 2008

A Top 10 ListA Top 10 List for Consideration by State DOTsfor Consideration by State DOTs

GHG Strategies1. Support/invest in vehicle & fuel improvements2. Increase ridesharing/transit/bike/ped programs3. Promote/support land use improvements4. Support/implement pricing strategies5. Manage speed/congestion

Process Strategies1. Develop expertise in GHG/energy reduction 2. Develop expertise in climate adaptation3. Establish links with MPOs and environmental organizations4. Involve/educate legislatures, the public and key civic groups5. Estimate cost-effectiveness of strategies

BONUS: Develop a proactive state DOT climate/energy action plan