Disasters, Conflict and Crisis Management

8/22/2019 Disasters, Conflict and Crisis Management

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CEPAL/ECLAC Distance Learning Programme 1

Disasters, conflict and crisismanagement

It is not unlike disaster recovery and risk management


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Disasters, conflict and crisis

management

How to approach the different interventions required: conceptual aspects, definition problems and purpose of the

interventions

Are they different sides of the same coin: crisis managements

associated with disasters and / or conflict? Conceptualquagmire

Methodological problems: needs assessments vs. Causal

analysis

Operational problems: setting priorities and differentiatingemergency from urgency: simultaneity and sequencing

Policy problems: positive vs. negative intervention; resource

allocation vs. policy change promotion


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Vicious circle: Insecurity, conflict

and mistrust

Human actions

progressively deteriorate

the socio-economic fabric

Conflict persistence

affects stability (positively

/ negatively)

Impact of instability and

insecurity deteriorates

governance and potential

for recovery

INSECURITY

HUMAN

ACTIONS

CONFLICT


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*OCIALSTABILITYSECURITY

(Reduced Vulnerability)

GOODGOVERNANCE

ECONOMICRECOVERY

BREAKING THE CYCLE OF CONFLICT AND

RESUMING THE PATH OF DEVELOPMENTThe World Banks Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Team, SDV


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SEQUENCE OF EFFECTS

PHENOMENON:

Characteristics (physical

description, typology and

context: war and insecurity,

lack of governance,marginalisation and

poverty)

EFFECTS:Direct (physical

on economic,

social and

natural capital)Indirect (on

Flows)LINKAGES

Menace Vulnerability Risk

Impact/Benefit of reconstruction (global, by sector)

Reduce vulnerability by building trust and consensus

Synergies for reconstruction: appropriation of risk by affected/menacedpopulation (community, social group, sector, country)


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SOME DEFINITIONS IN

CONFLICT RESOLUTION

PREVENTION

the before

actions

Actions (programmes, projects)with the objective of anticipatingand counteract the negative

consequence an event may have(avoidance of conflict)

It implies namely operational andorganisation actions to buildcommunication, trust and mutualrespect, training of potentiallyaffected groups and population to

promote consensus buildingthrough mutual trust.


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SOME DEFINITIONS IN

CONFLICT RESOLUTION (2)

MITIGATION

encompasses

actions before,

during andafter

Actions (programmes, project) withthe objective of counteracting(reducing the negative impact) of anoccurrence.

Includes allocation of resources toreinforce structures, redesign or alterexisting elements to reduce

vulnerability in addition to trainingand organisation (including at thecommunity level)

Ownership of actions is fundamentalto build trust


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SOME DEFINITIONS IN


VULNERABILITY

calculation made on

the basis orexposure to the

recurrence of

conflict

Risk factors or exposure todanger of existing institutionalframework such as:

Marginalisation,

Informality,

Pauperization,

Conditions of humansettlements and localisation of

productive activities (primary,industrial, tertiary or services)and their linkage among themand with the environment.


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SOME DEFINITIONS IN


CONFLICT

REDUCTION

encompassesactions

before,

during and

after

Actions (programmes,project) with the objective of

reducing vulnerability andexposure to risk

Implies trust in functioninginstitutional arrangements and

community involvement Difficulty in setting limits of

outside intervention vs. localsovereignty or ownership


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SOME DEFINITIONS IN


RISK

MANAGEMENT

(actions to becarried out

before with

consequences

during andafter)

Pro-active strategy (in contrast to re-active response) to reduce vulnerabilityand counteract risk factors

Its objective is conflict reduction Is not a sector action but a global set of

actions encompassing all sectors,beginning with sound environmentalmanagement

Is not a conservation policy per-se butrequires sustainability criteria both interms of natural resources and humanintervention.


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SOME DEFINITIONS IN


CONFLICT

MANAGEMENT

actions to becarried during

and the immediate

(short-term)

after

The response strategy (re-activestrategy) to, after the occurrence of adisaster, intends to counteract its moreimmediate negative impact and

prevent more severe effects in theshort term.

Includes emergency actions (searchand rescue, immediate assistance,

shelter, sanitary and health campaigns,rehabilitation of lifelines, assessmentof emergency needs and first appraisalof reconstruction requirements).


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Internal policies:Include vulnerability reduction as anobjective of development plansalongside goals of:Competitive growthEquitable developmentSustainable and sustained

developmentSocial participation

External policies:Introduce riskmanagement as part

of the regionalinternational agenda,alongside:External competitiveinsertionBenefitting from theglobalization processInclusive regionalinsertion

Sectoral components:

Monitoring, analysis and conflict

forecastingContingency plans in key sectors, forexample:

Agriculture, cattle raising,

rural poverty,

energy and baselines

Water and health

Interconnected systems

Regulation of basic services withsponsorship of private enterprise

Focalized plans for vulnerable groups,including employment, food availabilityand nutrition

Education to reduce vulnerability

Diagnosis and monitoring ofvulnerability at the local level

Proposed coursesof action

Restore economic andsocial fabricRestore and strenghtenproductive linkages(upstream/downstream)Reduce internal / externalvulnerability


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Comparison of post-disaster and post

conflict analysis / interventions

POST DISASTERS POST CONFLICT (CRISIS)

Diagnosis Typology (an artificial distinction): Typology (an arbitrary distinction):

- origins /causes - natural - economic

- extent o hydrometeoroligical

(climatic variability: cyclical,

recurrent

- social

- duration o climatic (change: global

change, greenhouse, etc.)

- pol itical

- relative importance (to size,

level, cycle (seasonal, economic, other) of

the community / region / country affected

o geological-seismic,

volcanic), geodynamics

(normally associated with wars, social / political

upheaval)

- anthropic (chemical,

industrial, etc.)

- sudden (one-time event

occurrence for a limited time-period)

May ensue or be aggravated by natural events

- slow (creeping, building such

as drought and other slow-evolving climate

variability), both limited or cyclical (ENSO)

OR open-ended persistence (deforestation-

drought, flooding and water level changes

(as in the oceans)

There is an interaction of disasters and conflict andlead to dynamic evolution which is neither

predictable nor linear (the phenomenon of

hysteresis):

- a disaster may lead to crisis and

conflict (of governability) and vulnerability

(exposure to disasters) is a development

issue

- Conflict may lead to a disaster

(by disabling response mechanisms,

increasing vulnerability and exposure)


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conflict analysis / interventions (2)


Type of effects and valuation Valuation : by sector, in terms of direct

(assets/capital losses) and indirect (flows affected)

and overall impact (on economic-social-dynamics)

Not much different or unlike disaster situation.

- economic Requirements: Difference will be in the conflict or crisis events inthe lack of preexisting institutional framework and

governance conditions, although disasters may

lead to loss or deterioration of these

- social - comparability (accepted

recognized standards, homogeneity)

Requirements: distinction between

- infrastructure - reliability / credibility - emergency actions (to stop

conflict, take crisis to an end) and

- institutional - distinction between book

value, replacement and reconstructioncosts

- institutional building (peace-

nation building)

Account for cross-cutting issues such as

differentiated gender impact, environmental impact

and overall effects

In disaster institutional and governance conditions

are (unless in very extreme severe cases) not

destroyed.


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conflict analysis / interventions (3)


Response to reconstruction needs, which should be

owned by the victims and lead to mitigation,

prevention and disaster reduction (in the

continuum or cycle of prevention- reduced

destruction-less costly reconstruction-proactive

mitigation) both in terms

Respond to restoring non-conflict situation which

allows for building social, human and economic

capital: establishing a normal functioning society

that sets goals, priorities and development

paradigm in accordance with societal needs,

culture and prior

Move from reactive to proactive interventions,

leading to the local ownership of disasters

mitigation and reduction.

Move from direct intervention to enabling and

empowering local population to manage its own

development process through consensus-building

institutional and political commonly agreed.

As in post-conflict the development paradigm is at

stake and may be subject to change.Foreign intervention is seen as supplementary to

national / local / community / socially agreed

strategy for reconstruction-mitigation

Foreign intervention is seen as crucial first phase

in generating post conflict minimal consensus and

functioning institutions and policy formulation

processes.

Type of intervention

Disasters, Conflict and Crisis Management

Documents