Disaster Risk Profiling - wamis.org · GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], Training Workshop

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org

Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector - Ljubljana, Slovenia, Sept. 20-24, 2010

Disaster Risk Assessment:Disaster Risk Profiling

Dr. Jianping YanDisaster Risk Assessment Specialist



Session Outline

• What risk information is required?• How to present risks?• How to profile risk?• How to structure risk atlas?



Risk Assessment Foundation

UnderstandingRisk

UnderstandingRisk

How likely is it?

How likely is it?

What can happen?What can happen?

What are the impacts?

What are the impacts?

Historic experience

Analyticmethods

Knowledge & intuition

How to Understand Risk?



RiskInformation

Strategic planning

Policy making

Disaster response

Disaster recovery

Disaster mitigation

DisasterpreparednessRegulation

Engineeringdesign

Infrastructureprotection

Insurance

Education

DevelopmentProcesses

DisasterManagement



Requirements of risk information

• Evidence-based• Quantitative• Systematic• Comprehensive• Complete• Multi-purposes• Dynamic



Ways to Present Risks

• Risk matrix• Risk curve• Factsheets• Risk map



Risk Matrix (1)

Very high risk

High risk

Moderate risk

Low risk

Very low risk

Risk Level



Risk Matrix (2)



Example

Minor

Moderate

Serious

Disastrous

Catastrophic

Severity

Rare

Lesspossible

Possible

Likely

Verylikely

543

2

1

5

554

4 4

1

1

2

2

2

2 2 2

3

3

3 3 3

3+

+

+

o

o

o

o

o

Probability



Global Risks Landscape (WEF)Global Risks Landscape 2009(by economic loss)




Global Risks Landscape 2010(by economic loss)




Global Risks Landscape 2010(by economic loss)

Global Risks Landscape 2009(by Human impact)











Risk Curve

Disasterrisk

Chronicrisk







Flood Risk Map

1% AEP = 100 Yr Return Period





What is (Disaster) Risk Profile?

• A snapshot of all the risks a target human system is subject to within a given timeframe.

• A simple risk profile includes a set of hazard scenarios, potential losses, and the probability of occurrence.

• A more comprehensive risk profile may include impacts of risk, categorization of risks, relative priority of the risks, acceptable levels of risk, linkages between different levels of risks, ways of measuring the risk (qualitative and quantitative), key risk areas/hotspots, risk reduction measures, capacity for risk treatment, learning needs and tools, etc.



Multi-levels of government

Multi-hazard systems

Multi-timeframes

Multi-sectors at risk

Multi-Dimension Risk Profile







Summary

• Risk profile is a snapshot of all the risks a target community is subject to within a given timeframe. It should be evidence-based, comprehensive, complete, user-friendly.

• There are 4 ways to present risk profiles – risk matrix, risk curve, fact table, and risk maps.

•• A contextual framework for disaster risk profiling is

presented, including the structure of National Risk Atlas.



Any Questions?

Disaster Risk Profiling - wamis.org · GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], Training Workshop

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