‘Disaster and Emergency Relief Framework’ IRDA, NDMA & FICCI Seminar A Presentation A Presentation Man-made Disasters versus Act of God by by Mr. Yogesh Lohiya Mr. Yogesh Lohiya CMD, GIC Re CMD, GIC Re 11 11 th th August 2010, New Delhi August 2010, New Delhi
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‘Disaster and Emergency Relief Framework’ IRDA, NDMA & FICCI Seminar A Presentation Man-made Disasters versus Act of Godby Mr. Yogesh Lohiya CMD, GIC Re.
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‘Disaster and Emergency Relief Framework’
IRDA, NDMA & FICCI Seminar
A Presentation A Presentation
Man-made Disasters versus Act of Godbyby
Mr. Yogesh LohiyaMr. Yogesh LohiyaCMD, GIC ReCMD, GIC Re
1111thth August 2010, New Delhi August 2010, New Delhi
• Natural (Act of God) (area of spread is vast) Earthquakes/ Tsunami/ Cyclones.
• High Volume of losses in both cases.
• Mitigation (long term process) & relief measures (immediate) cannot be largely different.
• Preventive measures are not a general trend and largely ignored by the society.
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• People do not voluntarily adopt simple and cost effective loss prevention measures
• Underestimate the likelihood of a disaster more so happening to them.
• Myopic behavior impedes the process of loss prevention.
• Faith in the government to take steps to prevent & protect from disasters.
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DisastersNatural Vs Man-made
Catastrophes : Some Facts
• There are twice as many people on Earth today as there were in 1950.
• A greater concentration of values than in 1950.– 4 times more globally– 6 times more in third world countries
• Most of the growth concentrated in coastal areas– More prone to weather risks (cyclones)
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Catastrophes: Some Facts• Catastrophes are more frequent now
–3 fold increase in numbers as in 1950
• Catastrophes are more severe in intensity
–8 fold increase in severity as in 1950
• Increase in insured losses- 15 X.
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Catastrophes in 2009
• Total Catastrophes: 288– Natural Catastrophes: 133
– Man made Catastrophes: 155
• Loss of lives: 15,000– Natural Catastrophes: 9,000
– Man made Catastrophes: 6,000
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Number of Cat Events-1970-2009
8Swiss Re, sigma No 1/2010
Nat Cats in 2009
• Hydrological disasters (floods) remained the most common disasters in 2009, accounting for 53.7 percent.
• Followed by storms (hurricanes) accounting for 25.4 percent.
• Geophysical disasters (earthquakes, volcanoes) accounted for 2.7 percent.
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Nat Cat :1970-2009Number of Victims
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Catastrophes in 2009
• Economic damages: US $ 62 billion– Natural Catastrophes: US $ 41 billion – Man made Catastrophes: US $ 21 billion
• Cost of Man-made disasters (insured losses): US $ 4 billion
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Insured Cat Losses 1970-2009
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Section IISection II
Exposure to Natural Catastrophes in India
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INDIA – INDIA – Vulnerability To Natural Catastrophes Vulnerability To Natural Catastrophes
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• Indian sub-continent Indian sub-continent considered one of the considered one of the most hazard-prone most hazard-prone countries in the worldcountries in the world
• 85% of land area 85% of land area
vulnerable to various vulnerable to various types of Natural types of Natural CatastrophesCatastrophes
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EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES
• Seismically active
• 59% of prone to EQs
• Four EQs above 8 & ten above 7.5 on Richter Scale in the last 100 years.
• Seven in the last 2 decades
• Dense Population & Old Construction adds to the problem.
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CYCLONES•8041 km long coastline•Large Coastline; large population; large destruction.
•Tropical Cyclones generally strike Eastern coast•Western Coast too is struck•Thunderstorms (Nor’westers) common in NE, NW, Central & SW India
•Cyclone associated strong winds & rains compound the destruction. •Floods & Coastal Inundations too are a risk.•15 cyclones have struck the Indian coast in last 100 years.
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FLOODS
• India is the 2nd most flood affected country after Bangladesh
• 40 mln hectares land mass prone to floods; 8 mln hectares affected annually.
• Rising population; developmental activities in flood plains make it more disastrous.
• Climate change also makes weather volatile leading to disasters.
• Avg. Annual Loss: US$ 400Mln.
• Urban Floods & Inundations are a new phenomena now.• Mumbai Floods (2005)
Section IIISection III
Are Natural Catastrophes
Act of God?
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Cat Events in India
• “Disastrous Weather Event” in Leh on 6.8.10• IOC Jaipur Fire 2009• Mahul Oil Installations in Mumbai• Surat Floods 2005 • Mumbai Floods 2005 • Plague/H1N1 Flu/ Bird Flu- 1994/ 2009 & 2010
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Catastrophic Events- Impact on India
• Loss of Life & Property on a large scale
• Majority of the affected uninsured
• Direct Losses due to natural disasters amount to (average per annum)-– 2% of India’s Gross Domestic Product– 12% of Federal Government’s Revenues
• All alleviation/ mitigation efforts post-event
• Disruption of Trade & Commerce
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Catastrophic Events- Impact on India
• Some of the worst CAT losses have occurred in India
• Top in natural-disaster-caused mortality in 2009: 1806 victims in India
• Low values & Low penetration are the causes• Catastrophe Risk Mapping is not complete• Detailed data is not available• Geographical Position makes us vulnerable
to events occurring in neighbouring areas. – (Tsunami/ Earthquakes)