Commercial in confidence Digital infrastruktur og digitalisering – noen innspill Harald Wium Lie – September 2017
Commercial in confidence
Digital infrastruktur og digitalisering – noen innspill
Harald Wium Lie – September 2017
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Innhold
▪ Hvordan står det egentlig til?
▪ Dypdykk IKT infrastruktur
▪ Noen vi kan lære av?
▪ Det vi ikke fikk tid til å snakke om
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Hvordan står det egentlig til?
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Source: Eurostat Community Survey on ICT usage in Households and by Individuals (2016)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Percentage who use Internet every week
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Source: Wikipedia
Global Internet Penetration by Country
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Source: The eMarketer report
Smartphone Penetration by 2017
Norway 1
Denmark 2
The Netherlands 3
Sweden 4
South Korea 5
Finland 6
UK 7
Australia 8
Germany 9
Japan 10
US 11
Country Rank
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Men den grundigste studien……
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Norge: Nr 4 av 139
▪ Top regulatory and innovation
environments
▪ The world’s best ICT infrastructure*
▪ 96.3 percent of the population online
▪ Digital technologies heavily used in B2B
and B2C interactions
▪ Stor innflytese på økonomi og
samfunnsliv
▪ Passe bra på “skills” og “government
usage”
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Et dypdykk på IKT infrastruktur (og hva vi – om noe - kan lære av det)
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The Norwegian Broadband
Model
Based on International Best Practice
Technology neutral
Market driven
Enough capacity to "meet needs"
Targeted subsidies
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Vi vet ikke hvor mye vi trenger
Vi kjenner ikke “de beste”
teknologiene
Bør vi bruke offentlige midler på
dette?
Folk sier alt mulig rart
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Respons fra Bredbånds-Norge
~140
> 10
All sorts of business models
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Akkurat som da vi bygde kobbernettet
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And it’s probably a good ideaAnd it’s probably a good idea
Cultural fit
The nine most terrifying words in the English language:
“ I'm from the government and I'm here to help”
The ten most terrifying words in the Norwegian language:
(and it eats strategy for breakfast)
“ I'm from the CENTRAL government and I'm here to help”
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Country ≥100 Mbit/s
download
≥30 Mbit/s
upload
Denmark (2015) 85% 85%
Sweden (2015) 69%
Norway (2015) 73% 63%
78% dekning 100 Mbit/s nedstrøm
Source: tjekditnet.dk, statistik.pts.se, nkom.no
Bredbånd 2016
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Nasjonalt nivå: Stor fremgang
Bredbånd 2016
94
47
2831
63
29
93
49
31 32
68
51
91
49
37 35
71
78
70
90
100
89
51
41
47
74
82
88
99 100
91
53
4650
79
85
93
100 100 100
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
xDSLVDSL+ADSL
HFC FTTH VDSL FTTH+HFC FTTH+HFC+VDSL
LTE(innendørs)
LTE(utendørshåndholdt)
LTE(utendørsmed
antenne)
Radio(utendørsmedantenne)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Verdens raskeste mobilnett
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Source: Speedtest.net / Ookla + Techcrunch
Bredbånd 2016
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Men fortsatt store forskjeller på by og land
Bredbånd 2016
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Valgmuligheter - aksessmetoder
20Bredbånd 2016
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Noen vi kan lære av?
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Hva skal til for å bli som Silicon Valley?
(og vil vi dette☺)
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Start med ~100 års ekspertise og samhandling om utvikling av høyteknologi
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Bland inn noen viktige nasjonale prosjekter (og prosjektmidler)
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“The military serves as both a munificent
venture capitalist that did not expect a
return (and not even co-ownership) and
as an inexpensive testbed”
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Sikre deg effektive og visjonære offentlige ledere
▪ Tøff, men rask & rettferdig offentlig regulering
▪ Tomteregulering – kun til high-tech selskaper
▪ Satsing på samferdsel og infrastruktur
▪ Regulering av arbeidsmarked: Anti-konkurranse arbeidsavtaler er ulovlig
– California’s law code forbids any labor contract that limits what an employee can
do after quitting
▪ Gunstige opsjonsregler
▪ Rask «enforcement» av avtaler
▪ Small Business Administration:
– Lån til småbedrifter
– 23 percent of prime federal contracts to small businesses
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Og en haug med (flinke) gærninger
▪ Høy andel «hobbyister»
– Companies started by ham-radio hobbyists: Heintz &
Kaufmann, Litton Engineering Labs, Eimac, …
– A 21-yo amateur, Philo Farnsworth, carries out the first
all-electronic television broadcast (1927)
– The Homebrew Computer Club (1975)
▪ Høy andel kunnskapsrike immigranter
– Nye immigrasjonslover i 1965
– Only 47 scientists immigrate to the USA from Taiwan in
1965, but in 1967 the number is 1,321
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▪ Høy andel homofile, raddiser og hippier
– The Union Labor Party (1901) becomes the first
pseudo-socialist party to win a mayoral election in a
USA city
– John Muir's Sierra Club (1892) leads the first
environmental protests
– San Francisco is the most unionized city in the USA
(teamsters and longshoremen)
– Legendary nightlife, e.g. gay bar Finocchio (1936)
– First hippie festival (1965)
– The "Summer of Love" (1966)
– "Gay Pride Parade" (1970)
Hva kjennetegner befolkningen i Bay Area?
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Og en oppstartskultur (hvor finansiering, kompetanse og aksept for å feile finnes)
Det er OK å feile, det er OK å slutte, det er OK å kopiere
▪ Chaotic creation and destruction of companies
▪ High labor mobility spreads knowledge quickly and efficiently
▪ The decentralized and anarchic personal-computer world is a
good fit for the spirit of the Bay Area
▪ Rapid dissemination of knowledge within an industry across
companies, as well as in cross-fertilization of ideas across
research groups.
▪ Status symbol of being an engineer like in no other region in the
world (second to the status symbol of being an entrepreneur)
▪ The culture of risk is a whole infrastructure designed to promote,
assist and reward risk-takers in new technologies (laboratories,
plants, offices, corporate lawyers, marketing agencies, venture
capitalists, universities, immigrants)
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▪ En Private Equity-industry
– "The Group" of private investors (1955) to invest in promising
electronics companies of the Bay Area
– Fairchild Semiconductors (1957), the first venture-funded "start-
up" company of the Bay Area
– Kleiner-Perkins (1972), Sequoia Capital (1972), Mayfield Fund
(1974), etc
▪ The Visible Hand of Capital
– The amount of money available to venture capitalists greatly
increases after the Apple IPO
– For several years Kleiner-Perkins is able to pay a 40% return to
the customers of its high-tech fund
▪ Liberale regler for hva pensjonsfond kan gjøre
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Andre eksempler?
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▪ Food Valley
“The Netherlands is a small, densely populated
country, with more than 1,300 inhabitants per square
mile. It’s bereft of almost every resource long thought
to be necessary for large-scale agriculture. Yet it’s the
globe’s number two exporter of food as measured by
value, second only to the United States, which has 270
times its landmass. How on Earth have the Dutch done
it?”
▪ Ekspertise og samhandling om utvikling av
høyteknologi
– Wageningen University & Research
Source: National Geographic Magazine
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Andre eksempler?
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▪ Food Valley
“The Netherlands is a small, densely populated
country, with more than 1,300 inhabitants per square
mile. It’s bereft of almost every resource long thought
to be necessary for large-scale agriculture. Yet it’s the
globe’s number two exporter of food as measured by
value, second only to the United States, which has 270
times its landmass. How on Earth have the Dutch done
it?”
▪ Ekspertise og samhandling om utvikling av
høyteknologi
– Wageningen University & Research
▪ Viktige nasjonale prosjekter (og prosjektmidler)
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Andre eksempler?
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▪ Food Valley
“The Netherlands is a small, densely populated
country, with more than 1,300 inhabitants per square
mile. It’s bereft of almost every resource long thought
to be necessary for large-scale agriculture. Yet it’s the
globe’s number two exporter of food as measured by
value, second only to the United States, which has 270
times its landmass. How on Earth have the Dutch done
it?”
▪ Ekspertise og samhandling om utvikling av
høyteknologi
– Wageningen University & Research
▪ Viktige nasjonale prosjekter (og prosjektmidler)
▪ Effektive og visjonære offentlige ledere
▪ En haug med (flinke) gærninger
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Hvordan kan dette oversettes til Sørlandet?
▪ Erfaring og ekspertise er bånnplanka
– Universitetet i Agder (sjekk mot Sintef…)
– Industriklynger
▪ Legg til rette for Gründere
– Husk at grundere trives best i et velfungerende
økosystem
▪ Bli et «to-jobbsområder»
– Hva skal mannen min drive med?
– Hvor skal jeg jobbe hvis selskapet mitt går konk?
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▪ Ta internasjonalt eierskap til noen områder
– 5G? IOT? Droner? Industri 4.0? Batteriteknologi?
Helseapper? Hummer? Eplesider?
▪ Støtt opp om hobby-kultur
– Lær kidsa koding
– (Men like gjerne 4H…..)
▪ Husk Ting Ho
▪ Og husk Bruno!
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Og hvordan kan dette passe inn i framtiden?
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Energi blir renere og rimeligere
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Dobling av levealder
“After remaining fairly
constant for most of human
history, life expectancy has
nearly doubled in the past
century.”
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Kvinner tar over
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Ikke kødd med Internett