Die Vom Klimawandel zur Energiewende - TU Wien · Nebojša Nakićenović Technische Universität Wien [email protected] Die Vom Klimawandel zur Energiewende DiKuppelsaal der Technischen

Nebojša NakićenovićTechnische Universität Wien

[email protected]

Die Vom Klimawandel zur Energiewende

DiKuppelsaal der Technischen Universität Wien ― 12 Juni 2014

2014 #2Nakicenovic

● Total Effort: 300 Authors; 200 Reviewers> 6 years >> 6m € and >> 100 p-years

www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

● IPCC: Working Group I● Total Effort: 260 Authors;

~2000 Pages (Published)

http://www.climatechange2013.org/.owww.ClimateChange2013.org

Cambridge University Press

● IPCC: Working Group III● Total Effort: 235 Authors;

~2000 Pages (Published)

2014 #4Nakicenovic

www.APCC.ac.atAustrian Panel on Climate Change

Two Faces of the Athropocene

Astronaut Sunita Williams

Two Faces of the Athropocene

Astronaut Sunita Williams

#7

201226 August

2012

NASA, 2012

2013 #8Nakicenovic

2013 #9Nakicenovic

2014 #10Nakicenovic

Energy Access

Energy Security

Climate Change

The Key Energy Challenges

Air PollutionHealth Impacts

2014 #11Nakicenovic

Source: Modi, 2011

Mobile Phones Charging

2013 #12Nakicenovic1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Per

cent

age

of to

tal p

opul

atio

n w

ith e

lect

ricity

acc

ess

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

USA

Mexico

Brazil

India

South Africa

China

USA Rural

SE4All

SE4All

Sub‐Saharan Africa

South Asia

Electrification

Source: Pachauri et al, 2012

2013 #13Nakicenovic 14

Present Atmosphere

~800 PgC

PreidustrialAtmosphere

~500 PgC

Coal~ 10,000 PgC

Biomass~430-460

PgCN. Gas

~190–240 PgC

Oil~180–280

PgC

Unconv. Oil~300-400

PgC

Unconventional Gas

~900-2900 PgC

Gas Hydrates~28,000

PgCHistorcial Emissions~500 PgC

~500 PgC

Cumulative Emissions for 2oC

Stabilzaiton Carbon Storage Potential~400-1500 PgC

Source: GEA, 2012

2014 #15NakicenovicBrine Treatment Plant – Conemaugh River

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

GHG emissions accelerate despite reduction efforts. Most emission growth is CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes.

2014 #17Nakicenovic

1850 1900 1950 2000

Glo

bal C

O2

emis

sion

s (P

gC)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Global CO2 Emissions

Source: GEA, 2012

2014 #18Nakicenovic

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Glo

bal C

O2

emis

sion

s (P

gC)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30IPCC Category IRPC 8.5RPC 6.0RPC 4.5RPC 2.6GEA (SE4ALL)

Global CO2 Emissions

RCP 8.5

RCP 4.5

RCP 6.0

RCP 2.6

Peak by 2020

reductions of 35-75% by 2050

almost zero or negative in the long term

2014 #19Nakicenovic

Mean Global Temperature

Source: IPCC WGI, 2013

2013 #20Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

MikrochipKommerzielle

Luftfahrt

Fernseher

VakuumröhreOttomotor

ElektrischerMotor

Dampf-maschine

Nuklear-energie

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas

Global Primary Energy

Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

2013 #21Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030

Nuclear phase-out (policy)

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

EinsparungenAndere ENuklearGasÖlKohleBiomasse

Global Primary Energyno CCS, no Nuclear

SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas

~55% renewables by 2030

2013 #22Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Limited BioenergyBio-CCS – “negative CO2

Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS

Global Primary Energylim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030

~30% renewables by 2030

2014 #23Nakicenovic UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

2030 Energy Goal●Universal Access to Modern Energy

●Double Energy Efficiency Improvement

●Double Renewable Share in Final Energy

Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

2014 #24Nakicenovic

But first, a reminder…

24

1850 19501900 2000 2050

Source: After Granger Morgan,

2014 #25Nakicenovic

Reconstructionwith passive

house standard

~90% 15 kWh/(m²a)over 150 kWh/(m²a)

Before reconstruction

Possible transformational technologies

2014 #26Nakicenovic

Possible transformational technologies

Potential Synergies between New Energy and Transport Infrastructures: Asian “Supergrid”

MAGLEV

2014 #28Nakicenovic

Supply Technologies Cost Trends

Source: Grubler et al, 2012

2014 #29Nakicenovic

Annual EnergyInvestments

InnovationRD&D 

[billion US$2005]

MarketsFormation[billion US$2005]

PresentInvestments[billion US$2005]

Investment for SE4All

[billion US$2005]

2010 2010 2010 2010 ‐ 2030

Efficiency >> 8 ~ 5 300 260‐370

Renewables > 12 ~ 20 200  260‐410

Access < 1 < 1 ~ 9 40‐60

Total > 50 < 150 1250 1780 ‐ 2440

Global Energy Investments

2013 #30Nakicenovic

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives

Total G

lobal Policy C

osts (201

0‐2030)

Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point

Energy Policy Costs (% GDP)

Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012