DHP for Houses with Electric FAF Provisional UES Measure Proposal Adam Hadley, Ben Hannas, Bob Davis Regional Technical Forum January 21, 2015.

DHP for Houses with Electric FAFProvisional UES Measure Proposal

Adam Hadley, Ben Hannas, Bob DavisRegional Technical Forum

January 21, 2015

Presentation Outline

• Measure Overview• Background• UES Estimate• Research Plan• RTF Staff Recommendations• Proposed Decision

2 - Outline

Measure Overview

• Review the Measure Properties section on the “Summary” tab of the proposed measure workbook.

Measure Developers BPA, EcotopeMeasure Definition Install a 9.5 HSPF or better DHP, with

nominal tonnage ≥ 3/4 ton in the main living area of an existing house with existing permanently installed electric forced air furnace space heat.

CAT Review Adam HadleyTechnical Subcommittee Review NoResearch & Evaluation Subcommittee Review

Yes; feedback received from research and evaluation group is included in proposed research plan.

Notes This is a new measure for the RTF; BPA has been offering it for some time.

3 – Measure Overview

Thermostat Control LogicFAF Control

DHP Control

Together…

Measure definition does not modify control strategies; whatever happens, happens.

4 – Measure Overview

5 – Measure Overview

6 – Measure Overview

Background – 2012 Study (LINK)Baylon, David, B. Davis, K. Geraghty, L. Gilman. “Ductless Heat Pump Engineering Analysis: Single-Family and Manufactured Homes with Electric Forced-

Air Furnaces.” Prepared by Ecotope for BPA. December 2012.

• Overview: 1-year monitoring of 10 MH and 10 SF houses with FAF/DHP (Heating Zone 1)

– Energy logging: DHP, FAF, DHW, and whole-house

– House and duct audit; pre/post billing analysis

– Participant houses were screened to ensure a heating signature was present; only one had significant wood use, one other had minor amounts of wood use.

• Findings

– Savings

– Three occupant Control Strategies Identified

1. Mostly DHP

2. Mostly FAF

3. Mix

– Savings likely come from a combination of:

• Increased efficiency of DHP over FAF

• Reduced use of the duct system

• Zoning (lower average interior temperature)

House Type

Savings, Heating Consumption (kWh/yr)Submetered

Savings ResultsBilling Savings Results (Pre Total – Post Total)

Mean SD Mean SD

MH 6105 2511 6022 2833

SF 4715 2224 5214 2541Total 5373 2405 5618 2652

7 - Background

UES - Savings Estimation (Provisional)

• Step 1: Use findings from 2012 field study to establish baseline and efficient-case energy use (for houses with no supplemental fuels):

DHP Engineering Analysis: Single-Family and Manufactured Homes with Electric Forced-Air Furnaces

Report: http://www.bpa.gov/energy/n/emerging_technology/pdf/DHP_FAF_Dec_12.pdf

Accessed from BPA DHP site: http://www.bpa.gov/energy/n/emerging_technology/DHP.cfm

Table 5. Final Savings Results

  Savings, Heating Consumption (kWh/yr)

House Submetered Savings Billing Savings Average SavingsType Mean SD Mean SD

MH 6105 2511 6022 2833 6064

SF 4715 2224 5214 2541 4965

Total 5373 2405 5618 2652 5496

Annual Heating Energy use (kWh/yr)

House  FAF  DHP

Type (Table 13) (FAF-Savings)

MH 10586 4523

SF 9185 4221

8 - UES

UES - Savings Estimation (Provisional)• Step 2: From RBSA Data, estimate supplemental fuel incidence for eFAF

houses:Single FamilyFor SF DHP zonal the first two zones were about 25% and zone 3 was about 70%, but for electric FAF zone 1 and 2 are much higher than zone 3, though zone 3 has a large error bound. The second table to the right shows the same summary across all electric primary heated homes and has a much higher percent in zone three, but lower in the first two zones. For this provisonal workbook the average for EFAF across all zones is used, which matches well with zones 1 and 2 for EFAF, and matches zone 3 for all primary electric systems.

Secondary supplemental fuel incidence, EFAF, SF Secondary supp. fuel incidence, all primary electric, SFHeat Zone Mean EB n Heat Zone Mean EB n

1 49% 13% 60 1 38% 5% 4112 43% 19% 20 2 26% 8% 933 28% 32% 5 3 49% 17% 29

ALL 48% 11% 85 ALL 36% 4% 533

Manufactured HomeFor MH electric FAF homes are very different than SF. Both EFAF and all primary electric homes show much lower distributions in zones 1 and 3, though zone three does not have many homes. For the provisional workbook we'll use the average EFAF scenario.

Secondary supplemental fuel incidence, EFAF, MH Secondary supp. fuel incidence, all primary electric, MHHeat Zone Mean EB n Heat Zone Mean EB n

1 7% 5% 97 1 6% 4% 1482 26% 14% 35 2 24% 12% 453 9% 15% 12 3 8% 13% 14

ALL 12% 5% 144 ALL 10% 4% 207

9 - UES

UES - Savings Estimation (Provisional)• Step 3: Use data from the DHP Zonal study to estimate the impact of

supplemental fuel on electric heating energy use.Ductless Heat Pump Impact & Process Evaluation: Billing Analysis ReportBaylon, Storm, & Robison.NEEA Report #13-262. 12 August 2013

Homes with no supplemental fuel  Pre-Heat Post-Heat Home Size Pre-Heat Post-Heat  Heat Zone (kWh/yr) (kWh/yr) (ft²) (kWh/yr/ft²) (kWh/yr/ft²) n

1 7603 4810 1514 5.02 3.18 20972 10973 9025 1605 6.84 5.62 1223 11326 9441 1930 5.87 4.89 76

ALL 7905 5187 1533 5.16 3.38 2295

Homes with supplemental fuel  Pre-Heat Post-Heat Home Size Pre-Heat Post-Heat  Heat Zone (kWh/yr) (kWh/yr) (ft²) (kWh/yr/ft²) (kWh/yr/ft²) n

1 6112 5159 1670 3.66 3.09 9172 7263 7334 2047 3.55 3.58 953 8553 9175 2293 3.73 4.00 85

ALL 6400 5659 1751 3.66 3.23 1097

Ratio: Electric Heating Energy Use for houses with Supplemental Fuels

Electric Heating Energy Use for Houses without Supplemental Fuels

Heat Zone Zonal (Pre) DHP (Post)

1 0.73 0.97

2 0.52 0.64

3 0.64 0.82

10 - UES

UES - Savings Estimation (Provisional)

• Step 4: Calculate Savings as difference between Baseline and Efficient-case Heating Energy Use (with average supplemental fuel use), where

NEB – Supplemental Fuel Savings• Supplemental fuel benefit calculated as difference in savings between houses without

supplemental fuel and average savings; multiplied by average retail electric rate– Same concept as used in the Zonal DHP measure analysis

11 - UES

UES, Cost, Life, B/C, Potential12 - UES

Measure Savings (kWh/yr)

Non Electric Fuel Benefit

(/year)

Measure Cost

Measure Life (yrs)

TRC B/C

Ratio

Install Ductless Heat Pump in House with Existing FAF - Manufactured Home - HZ1 5736 $ 27 $ 3,606 15 2.0

Install Ductless Heat Pump in House with Existing FAF - Manufactured Home - HZ2 5651 $ 34 $ 3,426 15 2.1

Install Ductless Heat Pump in House with Existing FAF - Manufactured Home - HZ3 5701 $ 29 $ 3,228 15 2.2

Install Ductless Heat Pump in House with Existing FAF - Single Family Home - HZ1 3836 $ 92 $ 3,606 15 1.5

Install Ductless Heat Pump in House with Existing FAF - Single Family Home - HZ2 3592 $ 112 $ 3,426 15 1.5

Install Ductless Heat Pump in House with Existing FAF - Single Family Home - HZ3 3739 $ 100 $ 3,228 15 1.7

Regional Savings Potential

House Type SF MH

Houses in Region 4,023,937 543,730

RBSA EFAF within Population 5.5% 51.3%

Savings 3,722 5,696

Applicability (assumption???) 50% 50% Total

aMW 47 91 138

Research and Evaluation Subcommittee Review

• Reviewers had adequate time to comment

• CAT feels the comments have been addressed in the revised research plan– However, another round of follow-up with

the commenters would have been preferred if we had more time

Commented Version is Posted to RTF Website

13 - Research Plan

Received Comments From:Mike BakerBrad AckerJosh RushtonChristopher FryeDavid BoppGreg KelleherTom EckhartJennifer FinniganGreg SullivanLauren Gage- Mark Johnson- Robert Weber- Danielle Walker- Erin Hope

Measure Research Plan1. Data Collection: Field Metering Study

– Purpose – Expands on 2012 Study to:

1. For efficient-case, develop relationship of DHP/FAF heat output fraction to other driving factors (outside air temp, house UA, house layout, occupant control strategy, etc.)

– Embed this relationship within SEEM model

2. Understand measure in colder climates/temperatures

3. Provide dataset to calibrate DHP/FAF SEEM model

14 – Research Plan

Sample Size Site Built ManufacturedHeating Zone 1 10* 10*Heating Zone 2 10- 10+Heating Zone 3 10- 10+ * = From 2012 Study

Note on +’s and –’s: Sample might end up weighted more toward manufactured homes since there are more eFAF’s in MH than SF.

Measure Research Plan2. Data Collection: Billing Analysis

– Purpose• Estimate savings at the meter for the population of installations

• (Along with survey) Estimate impact of non-electric fuels

• (Along with survey) Calibrate SEEM by control type, or other factors, to population

– Sample• All sites up to study start date = ~1,000

• Expect maybe 200 in Heating Zones 2 and 3

3. Data Collection: Homeowner Phone Survey– Purpose: Collect data on wood/supplemental fuel use, control

strategy, house size, etc.

– Sample: ~1000 sites (< 500 complete)

15 – Research Plan

Measure Research Plan• Analysis Plan

– Field Research to develop and calibrate SEEM simulation (for houses with a solid heat signature)

– Billing Analysis: Pre/post VBDD for each house• Use Billing Analysis and Phone Survey results to estimate impact of

supplemental fuels (similar to method used in zonal study: energy consumption pre and post of those with supplemental fuels vs those without)

• Also used as a QC check on resulting UES values after many manipulations through SEEM

– Use Phone Survey results to establish a population-weighted control strategy mix (and same for other critical variables)

– Using newly calibrated version of SEEM, estimate UES.

16 – Research Plan

Measure Research Plan• Budget

17 – Research Plan

Study Component Estimated Cost

Billing Study and Homeowner Survey $85,730

Field Metering Study $280,760

- Optional Remote Data Collection $36,000

Total $366,490 to $402,490

RTF Staff Recommendations• RTF staff recommendation on the UES estimate:

– Overall, savings methodology fine for provisional UES measure.• Note: UES estimate uses non-electric fuel impact from zonal study, which

doesn’t factor in differences in operation of electric FAF and its duct losses.• UES estimate assumes similar baseline and efficient-case heating electricity

use for heating zones 1, 2, and 3 (for houses without supplemental fuels)

• RTF staff recommendation on research plan:– Research plan is reasonable

• Before investing in the full research plan, however, the Region should double-check, using the existing data from the 2012 study, that the proposed plan isn’t majorly flawed

– Investigate DHP/FAF fraction versus important factors– Investigate calibrating SEEM to post-data collected in metering study

• The Billing Study could get the measure to Proven on its own (maybe just for heating zone 1), but we wouldn’t have a way to model the DHP/FAF system for other measures

• Sample size of 60 might not be enough to generate a reliable relationship between DHP/FAF fraction and important factors (OAT, UA, control strategy, etc.)

18 - Recommendations

Decision

“I _________ move that the RTF approve the measure definition, savings, life, cost, and research plan for the UES measure Residential Existing MH and SF Ductless Heat Pumps for Electric Forced-Air to:

• Provisional category;

• Active status;

• with a sunset date of January 2016.”

Note: The intention of the 1-year sunset date is for the RTF to check in on whether the research is being supported by the Region.

19 - Decision

Additional Slides For Reference20

Example: DHP/Zonal Fractions vs OAT and UA (from zonal DHP analysis)

21 – Additional Slides

22 – Additional Slides