D.greenwood, wmg future of low carbon vehicles

Low Carbon AutomotiveOpportunities

Innovation Feast10 December 2014

David Greenwood

Professor, Advanced Propulsion Systems

[email protected]

There are many drivers for efficient transport

EnergyEfficient

Transport

Industrial Opportunity

Climate Change &Air Quality

Consumer demand

Energy Security

$

Source:Cornell University from Edwards 2001

Source:Adweek

Pathways to reduce consumption and emissions

Travel Less

Use best transport mode

Reduce vehicle mass and drag

Improve powertrain

Reduce carbon in fuel

ImproveTechnology

Manage transport network

ManageDemand

US 2025:109

EU 2020: 95Japan 2020: 105

China2020: 117

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

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US-LDVCalifornia-LDVCanada-LDVEUJapanChina

Most markets now regulate CO2 or fuel economy

US requires 4.7%annual reduction

EU Requires 3.9%annual reduction

China proposingaggressive targets

Gradual globalconvergence of

targetsSource: ICCT

OEM’s must manage fleet-wide targets

Broad consensus exists on powertrain roadmap

Hybridisation / Electrification works by:

Stopping engine when idling anddecelerating

4-6% FE benefit NEDC>10% in city drive

Allows engine to be used at moreefficient operating point

Smaller engines usedWith bigger motors

15% FE benefit

Captures braking energy for re-uselater

Store as electricityNot lost as heat

10% FE benefit

Allows use of electricity as primary fuelsource in place of hydrocarbons

Zero tailpipe emissionsLower CO2/km*(-10%) to 95%

* Depending on grid mix X

Engine and Motor Requirements – typical pass. car

Conventional

Mild Hybrid

Full Hybrid

PHEV

EV

Engine Motor

100kWFull transient requirement

90-100kWFull transient requirement

60-80kWReduced transient requirement

40-60kWLimited transient requirement

Starter motor only

3-13kWTorque boost and re-gen

20-40kWLimited EV mode

40-60kWStronger EV mode

REEV 30-50kWNo direct transient requirement

100kWFull EV mode

No Engine100kW

Full EV mode

Main components of Hybrid / Electric Vehicle

Example Ricardo 2006 – Efficient-C

BatteryCharger

But CO2 reduction comes at a price

• €30/(g/km) proven acceptable in western mass market

• Uptake of hybrids at ~€95/(g/km) breaking into early majority market

• EV’s at €300/(g/km) currently confined to early adopters

Source: Ricardo 2014

Biggest challenge for commercialization is cost

The next big opportunities for Low Carbon

• Lightweight – but at an acceptable price and production rate

• Better batteries – especially for low cost and high power/weight

• High power density e-machines

• High power density power electronics

• Exhaust gas heat recovery

Prototype vs Automotive Volume

Niche / Prototype

• Low volume

• High price

• High Performance

• High precision

• Cheap tools, expensive parts

• Little warranty

• Little liability

• Fast cashflow

Priorities

• Performance

• Reliability

• Fuel Consumption

• Cost

• Emissions ?

Automotive

• High volume

• Low price

• Moderate Performance

• High repeatability

• Expensive tools, cheap parts

• Warranty

• Liability !

• Cashflow !

Priorities

• Emissions (below threshold)

• Reliability / repeatability

• Cost

• Fuel consumption

• Performance

TRL1

• Basic principles observed and reported

• Paper studies and scientific studies undertaken

TRL2

• Speculative applications identified

• Application specific simulations or experiments conducted

TRL3• Analytical and lab studies have physically validated predictions of separate elements of

the technology or components that are not yet integrated or representative

TRL4

• The technology component and/or basic subsystem have been validated in the lab ortest house environment

• The basic concept has been observed in other industry sectors

TRL5• The technology component and/or basic subsystem have been validated in a relevant

environment, potentially through a mule or modified current production vehicle

TRL6

• A model or prototype of the technology system has been demonstrated as part of avehicle which can simulate and validate all system specifications within an operationalenvironment (e.g. test track)

TRL7• Multiple prototypes have been demonstrated in an operational environment

TRL8

• Test and demonstration phases have been completed to end user’s satisfaction

• The technology has been proven to work in its final form and under all expectedconditions

TRL9• Real world performance of the technology in end users’ hands is a success

MRL1• Basic manufacturing implications have been identified

• Materials for manufacturing have been characterised and assessed

MRL2

• Manufacturing concepts and feasibility have been determined and processes have been identified

• Producibility assessments are underway and include advanced design for manufacturingconsiderations

MRL3• A manufacturing proof of concept has been developed

MRL4• Capability exists to produce the technology in a prototype or lab environment

MRL5• Capability exists to produce the technology in a production relevant environment

MRL6• Capability exists to produce the integrated system in a production relevant environment

MRL7• Capability exists to produce the technology in a production relevant environment at full run rate

Automotive requires high proof at TRL8 and MRL6/7

Premium cars can act as stepping stone to Automotive

• Sports cars and premium vehiclesare the “early adopters” ofautomotive technology

• Volumes are lower, margins higher,and unique capabilities are valuable

• Customers are prepared to acceptcompromise to get benefits

• High volume Tier 1 suppliers aregenerally ambivalent

• And design teams are generallymore creative and more innovative

• These high profile vehicles canvalidate your product

• And give in-field demonstration ofcapability

Making it big… Scaling up to automotive volume

Tier 1 Component Manufacturer

M&A or JV

• Demonstrate technology

• Protect IP and know-how

• Get bought, or JV with Tier 1

SME

SME

Tier 1

Organic Growth

• Keep knowledge and IP in-house

• Supply small volume first

• Secure investment and grow

Tier 1 Component ManufacturerTier 1 Component Manufacturers

License Technology

• Demonstrate technology

• Protect IP

• License to Tier 1(s)

SME

Getting there – Collaboration spreads the load

• Delivering to the level of robust full vehicle demonstration takesyears of effort and £M

• Doing it alone is possible, but others can share the load and benefitfrom aspects of the project which are enablers for you

• And collaborators can become future customers or suppliers

• Funding mechanisms exist to promote collaborations

You£1M

You£500k

P1

P2

P3

You£250k

P1

P2P3

TSB/APC

The UK Auto industry is well networked and supported

Networks

Funders(non-equity)

Developers(examples)

In Conclusion

• Automotive technology is changing faster than any time in thelast 100 years – and this opens up opportunities

• Automotive industry requires high levels of product developmentand very low cost – getting there is expensive

• Collaboration shares the load – and funding bodies are there tohelp

THANK YOU