Devolution and Housing Steve Wilcox University of York.

Devolution and Housing

Steve WilcoxUniversity of York

Devolution and Housing

Four frameworks

Housing Supply

Housing Affordability

Housing Quality

The First Decade

Four Frameworks :Constitutional Arrangements

Pre Devolution Differences

Scotland : Primary Legislation

Wales : Secondary Legislation

Northern Ireland : Suspension

Related non devolved functions

Four Frameworks :Financial Arrangements

Scotland & the 1989 ActBarnett & LA Capital ProvisionHRA Subsidy ConcordatsScotland & Prudential BorrowingNorthern Ireland & NIHEThe Rent Concordats

Index of growth in total devolved budgets

100

125

150

175

200

225

1988 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Scotland Northern Ireland Wales England/UK

Index of total per capita spending (UK = 100)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1998/99 2007/08

England Northern Ireland Scotland Wales

Housing spend as a proportion of total attributable spend

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1988 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Scotland Northern Ireland Wales England/UK

Devolution and housing supply

Overall housing supply

Supply of social rented dwellings

Right to buy reforms & impacts

Decline in social rented stock

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Th

ou

san

ds

England

1998 2007

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Thou

sand

s

NorthernIreland

Scotland Wales

1998 2007

Social rented stock as a proportion of total housing stock

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Per

cen

tag

es

England NorthernIreland

Scotland Wales

1998 2007

Trends in public funding for new housing association dwellings

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

£ milli

on

England

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

£ m

illio

n

Northern Ireland Scotland Wales.

Includes funding for shared ownership and other LCHO schemes

Trends in social rented new build completions

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

England

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Northern Ireland Scotland Wales.

Lettings to new tenants declinein all four countries

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

England

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Northern Ireland Scotland Wales

Figures are thousands. Northern Ireland figures are for NIHE only. EnglishLA figures exclude non secure lettings to homeless from 2003/04. ‘New’ tenants include existing tenants moving between the LA and HA sectors.

Divergent trends in homeless acceptances

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

England

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Northern Ireland Scotland Wales

Proportion of council dwellings allocated to priority homeless in 2006

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Per

cen

tag

es

England NorthernIreland

Scotland Wales

Right to buy reforms and impacts

Gradual impact on lettings

Impact of cash limits

Scotlands ‘modernised’ right to buy

Wales & the LCO(*) Debacle

* Legislative Competence Order

RTB Sales of council housing

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Num

ber

of s

ales

England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Disc

ount

rate

(%)

England ScotlandWales Northern Ireland

Average right to buy discounts

Housing affordability

Market affordability

Social rents & affordability

National trends in home owner affordability

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Hou

se p

rice

to in

com

e ra

tios

England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland

Based on CLG first time buyer house prices and EFS working household gross earnings

Proportion of younger households unable to buy in 2004

0

10

20

30

40

50

England Scotland Wales Great Britain

Per

cent

age

of a

ll ho

useh

olds

Not in work Require housing benefit Cant afford to buy

Source : Affordability and the Intermediate Housing Market, JRF, 2005

Rents as a percentage ofmortgage costs in 2007

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

£ pe

r wee

k

England Northern IrelandScotland Wales

Trends in council rents

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

£ pe

r wee

k

England Northern IrelandScotland Wales

Trends in housing association rents

Housing quality

Three quality standards

Quality of council housing

Quality of private housing

PRS Regulation

Environmental & Energy Efficiency

Housing Quality Standards

A century of evolving standards

Unfitness

Below Tolerable Standard

Decent Homes Mk I

Scottish Housing Quality Standard

Welsh Housing Quality Standard

Decent Homes Mk II (HHSRS)

Improving council housing

Stock transfers

ALMO’s in England

Prudential borrowing & Scotland

NIHE?

Public borrowing constraints

Definitional frailties

Post devolution stock transfers as a proportion of 1997 council stock

0

5

10

15

20

25

England Scotland Wales

Private sector grants fall in real terms

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

£ m

illi

on

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

Excludes disabled facilities grants

Improvements grants in 2006 per private sector dwelling

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

£ p

er a

nn

um

England NorthernIreland

Scotland Wales

The First Decade

Constraints and Opportunities

Considerable policy development

Contented policy communities

Limited impacts (so far) in practice

Cross border learning?

A settled settlement?