25 JUNE 2012 DEVELOPMENTS IN THE WEST PHILIPPINE SEA
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25 JUNE 2012
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE
WEST PHILIPPINE SEA
PH 200M EEZ AND
CONTINENTAL SHELF
I. BAJO DE MASINLOC (SCARBOROUGH SHOAL)
Spratlys Group Of Islands
Scarborough Shoal
FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY
PH BASELINES (RA 9522)
PH 200M EEZ AND CONTINENTAL SHELF
BAJO DE MASINLOC
Kalayaan Island Group (KIG)
Scarborough Shoal
FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY
PH BASELINES (RA 9522)
Palauig
Hainan Dao
Parola Is. **
Shibeshanjiao
*Relative Distance source: DENR-NAMRIA in Figure 6, Foreign Service
** Nearest Distance to KIG
Amid the Bajo de Masinloc stand-off, several myths were generated: Tension in the South China Sea was allegedly caused by Philippine articulation (Philippine policy shift: Arroyo vs. Aquino Administration) Chinese aggressive policy in the WPS (SCS) is caused by the transition in Chinese leadership
II. MYTHS ON THE WPS (SCS) TENSION
The problem in the WPS (SCS) is not the tension per se. The tension is caused by something. Therefore, the source which causes the tension is the real problem in the WPS (SCS) The source of the tension is not the
articulation of the Philippines. The Philippines is articulating because
it feels the tension, and that tension is being brought right into its doorstep.
II. MYTHS ON THE WPS (SCS) TENSION
PH BSL
PH200M
Reed Bank
Wood Bank
Southern Bank
Amy Douglas Bank
FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY
CHIGUA REEF
LEN DAO REEF
Prior to 1995, China was in CHIGUA & LEN DAO REEF, which is about 185M from Palawan
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.0019
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
032004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
US ($B) China Military expenditure in constant 2010 US$B. 1994-‐[2012]
www.sipri.org
20.31
PH BSL
PH200M
Reed Bank
Wood Bank
Southern Bank
Amy Douglas Bank
PANGANIBAN REEF
FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY
China Occupies Panganiban/ Mischief Reef
1995
By 1995-98, China was in PANGANIBAN REEF, about 130M from Palawan
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.0019
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
032004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
US ($B)
www.sipri.org
China Military expenditure in constant 2010 US$B. 1994-‐[2012]
20.88
PH BSL
PH200M
Wood Bank
Southern Bank
Amy Douglas Bank
FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY
REED BANK
By 2010, China was asserting sovereignty over RECTO BANK, about 85M from Palawan
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.0019
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
032004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
US ($B)
www.sipri.org
China Military expenditure in constant 2010 US$B. 1994-‐[2012]
87.73
PH BSL
PH200M
Reed Bank
Wood Bank
Southern Bank
Amy Douglas Bank
FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY
A3
A4
By 2011, China was on AREAS 3 & 4, about 30 & 60M, respectively, from Palawan
China urges Philippines to cancel plan to bid out Area3
& Area 4 04 Jul 2011
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.0019
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
032004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
US ($B)
www.sipri.org
China Military expenditure in constant 2010 US$B. 1994-‐[2012]
129.27
PH BSL
PH200M
Reed Bank
Wood Bank
Southern Bank
Amy Douglas Bank
FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY
By 2012, China was sighted in SCARBOROUGH SHOAL, 124M from Zambales
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.0019
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
032004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
US ($B)
www.sipri.org
China Military expenditure in constant 2010 US$B. 1994-‐[2012]
~143
Philippines-China Stand-off in Bajo de Masinloc April 2012
III. 2011 CHINA FISHING BAN (QUADRANT 1)
WEST PHILIPPINE
SEA 12N Lat Line
Scarborough Shoal
Spratlys Group of Islands
Reed Bank
113E Long Line
PACIFIC OCEAN
III. 2012 CHINA FISHING BAN (QUADRANT 1 + QUADRANT 2)
WEST PHILIPPINE
SEA
Lat 23-09-42.60 Long 117-31-37.40
Lat 21-54-15.00 Long 120-50-43.00
Near S of Hengchun (Taiwan)
Near SW of Shantou, Guangdong (China)
Scarborough Shoal
Spratlys Group of Islands
Reed Bank
12N Lat Line
PACIFIC OCEAN
III. EXPANDED CHINA FISHING BAN? (Q1 & Q2) + (Q3 & Q4)?
WEST PHILIPPINE
SEA
Lat 23-09-42.60 Long 117-31-37.40
Lat 21-54-15.00 Long 120-50-43.00
Near S of Hengchun (Taiwan)
Near SW of Shantou, Guangdong (China)
Scarborough Shoal
Spratlys Group of Islands
Reed Bank
12N Lat Line
PACIFIC OCEAN
III. PASSAGE THROUGH PHILIPPINE WATERS?
WEST PHILIPPINE
SEA
Lat 23-09-42.60 Long 117-31-37.40
Lat 21-54-15.00 Long 120-50-43.00
Near S of Hengchun (Taiwan)
Near SW of Shantou, Guangdong (China)
Scarborough Shoal
Spratlys Group of Islands
Reed Bank
PACIFIC OCEAN
PHILIPPINES
INDONESIA
CHINA
TAIWAN
PALAU
JAPAN
INDONESIA
VIETNAM
MALAYSIA
BRUNEI
IV. CHINA STRATEGY: WATER GAIN USING 9-DASH LINE
HISTORICAL CLAIM ON THE 9-DASH LINE
Scarborough Shoal
Spratlys Group of Islands
Reed Bank
PHILIPPINES
INDONESIA
CHINA
TAIWAN
PALAU
JAPAN
INDONESIA
VIETNAM
MALAYSIA
BRUNEI
IV. CHINA STRATEGY: FULL 200M EEZ IN SCS FEATURES
REED BANK AS PART OF THE ADJACENT WATERS OF NANSHA ISLANDS
Scarborough Shoal
Spratlys Group of Islands
200M PROJECTED ON SCARBOROUGH SHOAL
Reed Bank
PHILIPPINES
INDONESIA
CHINA
TAIWAN
PALAU
JAPAN
INDONESIA
VIETNAM
MALAYSIA
BRUNEI
Scarborough Shoal
Spratlys Group of Islands
Reed Bank
V. CONCLUSION SCENARIO 1
PHILIPPINES
INDONESIA
CHINA
TAIWAN
PALAU
JAPAN
INDONESIA
VIETNAM
MALAYSIA
BRUNEI
Scarborough Shoal
Spratlys Group of Islands
Reed Bank
V. CONCLUSION SCENARIO 2
C H IN ESE LAK E
PHILIPPINES
INDONESIA
CHINA
TAIWAN
PALAU
JAPAN
INDONESIA
VIETNAM
MALAYSIA
BRUNEI
Scarborough Shoal
Spratlys Group of Islands
Reed Bank
V. CONCLUSION SCENARIO 3
PHILIPPINES
INDONESIA
CHINA
TAIWAN
PALAU
JAPAN
INDONESIA
VIETNAM
MALAYSIA
BRUNEI
Scarborough Shoal
Spratlys Group of Islands
Reed Bank
V. CONCLUSION SCENARIO 3
25 JUNE 2012
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA
END OF PRESENTATION
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