Development of Wildland Fire Emission Inventories with the BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework Sean Raffuse, Erin Gilliland, Dana Sullivan, Neil Wheeler,

Development of Wildland Fire Emission Inventories with the BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework

Sean Raffuse, Erin Gilliland, Dana Sullivan, Neil Wheeler, and Lyle ChinkinSonoma Technology, Inc., Petaluma, California

Sim Larkin, Robert Solomon, Tara StrandU.S. Forest Service AirFIRE Team

Thompson PaceU.S. EPA OAQPS

Presented at the7th Annual Community Modeling and Analysis System (CMAS) Conference

Chapel Hill, North CarolinaOctober 7, 2008

STI-3457

2

Background

• NASA Decision Support• NASA-STI-USFS Partnership• SMARTFIRE* – Fire Information• BlueSky Framework – Fuels, Consumption,

and Emissions• EPA Work Assignment• Emission Inventory for Wildland Fires

* Satellite Mapping Automatic Reanalysis Tool for Fire Incident Reconciliation

3

Emission Inventory Processing

Scope Contiguous United States August 2002 through 2006 Wildfires, Wildfire Use, prescribed burning Agricultural burning excluded

BlueSky Pathway Fire information: SMARTFIRE Fuel loading: FCCS (Fuel Characteristic Classification

System) Fuel consumption: Consume 3.0 Emissions: FEPS (Fire Emission Production Simulator)

4

BlueSky Pathway

ICS-209SMARTFIREOtherRx Sys FCCS

NFDRSHardyLANDFIREAg Other

CONSUME 3FEPSFOFEMClearSky (Ag)SatelliteOther

FEPSWRAPFOFEMRx / WFIdealizedManualOther

EPMFEPSFOFEMLiteratureOther

BriggsFEPSWRAPMulti-coreDaysmokeOther

CALPUFFCMAQHYSPLIT

BlueSky Framework 3.0

FireInformation

Fuels

Total Consumption

TimeRate

Emissions

PlumeRise

Dispersion /Trajectories

5

Data Sources

• ICS-209 reports: AirFIRE, Fire and Aviation Management Web Applications (FAMWEB) web site, and Tom Pace

• HMS fire detects: NOAA Hazard Mapping System (Mark Ruminski)

• MODIS* fire detects: USFS Remote Sensing Applications Center (used to fill gaps in HMS data)

• Fuel moisture: USFS Wildland Fire Assessment System

* Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

6

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

PM

2.5

(kt

ons) 2003 2004 2005 2006

Annual PM2.5 Primary Emissions

Annual Total

1.67

1.10

0.90

1.28

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

2006

2005

2004

2003

PM2.5 (million tons)

Monthly Totals

(2003 - 2006, Lower 48 States)

7

Annual Average PM2.5 Wildland Fire Emission Density(2003 – 2006)

8

Average Monthly Wildland Fire PM2.5 Emissions(2003-2006)

Month

9

2003

0

50

100

150

200

250

1/1 2/1 3/4 4/4 5/5 6/5 7/6 8/6 9/6 10/7 11/7 12/8

Are

a (t

hous

and

acre

s)

05101520253035

PM

2.5

(kto

ns) Area PM2.5

2004

0

50

100

150

200

250

1/1 2/1 3/3 4/3 5/4 6/4 7/5 8/5 9/5 10/6 11/6 12/7

Are

a (t

hous

and

acre

s)

05101520253035

PM

2.5

(kto

ns)Area PM2.5

2005

0

50

100

150

200

250

1/1 2/1 3/4 4/4 5/5 6/5 7/6 8/6 9/6 10/7 11/7 12/8

Are

a (t

hous

and

acre

s)

05101520253035

PM

2.5

(kto

ns)Area PM2.5

2006

0

50

100

150

200

250

1/1 2/1 3/4 4/4 5/5 6/5 7/6 8/6 9/6 10/7 11/7 12/8

Are

a (t

hous

and

acre

s)

05101520253035

PM

2.5

(kto

ns)Area PM2.5

2002

0

50

100

150

200

250

1/1 2/1 3/3 4/3 5/4 6/4 7/5 8/5 9/5 10/6 11/6 12/7

Are

a (t

hous

and

acre

s)

05101520253035

PM

2.5

(kto

ns)Area PM2.5

Area Burned vs. PM2.5 Emissions

10

Effect of Different Fire Information Sources

y = 104x

R2 = 0.66

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 1000 2000 3000

Pixel CountA

cres

Bur

ned

(Tho

usa

nds

)

ICS-209s only This was BlueSky’s previous data feed. ICS-209s report cumulative area burned. We subtracted the previous day’s area from today’s to get the

daily area burned

MODIS Terra and Aqua only This is the most commonly used

satellite-derived fire data set We developed acres burned per pixel

relationship by examining 30 wildfires Used 100 acres per pixel

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SMARTFIRE vs. MODIS vs. ICS-209Area Burned

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Differences Between MODIS and HMS

• Because HMS includes GOES and AVHRR derived fire pixels in addition to MODIS, it detects more fires overall.

• This is especially true in the southeast, where fires are often small and/or short lived.

• In addition to the increased coverage, HMS provides human quality control.

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MODIS consumption rate is much higher than the other two.

Why?

Yearly Totals

Overall Consumption Rate (tons/acre)

ICS-209 10.0

MODIS 17.6

SMARTFIRE 11.9

MODIS consumption rate is much higher than the other two.

Why?

Area Burned

Fuel Consumed

02468

101214

Mill

ion

Acr

esICS-209 MODIS SMARTFIRE

0

50

100

150

200

Mill

ion

Ton

s

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2003 2004 2005 2006

Mill

ion

Ton

s

Fuel Consumed

Area Burned

PM2.5 Emitted

14

SMARTFIRE vs. MODIS vs. ICS-209 PM2.5 Emissions

15

Aspen Fire, Arizona – 2003

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Acres Burned - Aspen Fire, Arizona

02468

101214

6/17 6/20 6/23 6/26 6/29 7/2 7/5 7/8 7/11

Tho

usan

d A

cres ICS209

SMARTFIRE

PM2.5 Emitted - Aspen Fire, Arizona

02468

101214

6/17 6/20 6/23 6/26 6/29 7/2 7/5 7/8 7/11

Hun

dred

Ton

s ICS209SMARTFIRE

Total

ICS-209 84,750SMARTFIRE 80,896

Helicopter 84,733

ICS-209 8,281SMARTFIRE 3,659

Total

Aspen Fire – Acres Burned vs. Emissions

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B & B Complex, Oregon – 2003

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Acres Burned - B&B Complex, Oregon

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

8/19 8/24 8/29 9/3 9/8 9/13

Th

ousa

nd A

cre

s ICS-209

MODIS

SMARTFIRE

Total

ICS-209 91,500

SMARTFIRE 117,100

Helicopter 90,800

MODIS 189,800

TotalICS-209 10,700

SMARTFIRE 44,200

MODIS 73,100

B & B Complex, Oregon – 2003

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Future Work

• Continued validation and improvement of fire size parameters

• Further exploration of high consumption rate when using MODIS

• Differences with high resolution fuel loading data (LANDFIRE)– 30-m spatial resolution is finer scale than the satellite

fire information– Will use helicopter-flown perimeters or high resolution

satellite burn scars to determine area burned

• Smoke and Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (SEMIP)

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Acknowledgments

• Funding from National Fire Plan, USFS, Joint Fire Science Program, EPA, DOI, and NASA ROSES DSS

• Our many collaborators and partners Tom Pace (EPA) Amber Soja (NIA) Mark Ruminski and John Simko (NOAA NESDIS) Roger Ottmar and Susan Pritchard (USFS-FERA)

Thank you!

Contact: [email protected]

Information: www.getBlueSky.org