DEVELOPMENT OF PATHWAYS TO ACHIEVE THE SE4ALL ENERGY EFFICIENCY OBJECTIVE: Global and regional potential for energy efficiency improvements J. Gregg, O. Solér, O. Balyk, C. Cabrera Pérez, S. La Greca 68th Semi-Annual ETSAP Meeting Sophia Antipolis, France
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Development of the pathways to achieve SE4ALL 2030 objectives
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DEVELOPMENT OF PATHWAYS TO ACHIEVE THE
SE4ALL ENERGY EFFICIENCY OBJECTIVE:
Global and regional potential for energy efficiency improvements
J. Gregg, O. Solér, O. Balyk, C. Cabrera Pérez, S. La Greca
68th Semi-Annual ETSAP Meeting
Sophia Antipolis, France
UN SE4ALL objectives
The 2030 objectives of the SE4ALL:
1) universal access to modern energy services
2) a doubling of the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency
3) a doubling of the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix
Guiding Question/ Objective
To determine what additional policy measures and technological developments are necessary in order to achieve the 2030 SE4ALL objectives for
• energy efficiency,
• renewable energy, and
• universal access to modern energy services.
Related questions:
• Regional and sectoral EE potential
• Effect on emissions and climate targets
• Co-Compatibility/ Synergy of targets
Method
Changes in:energy savings,
costs, tech profile, energy intensity, tech penetration,
GHG concentration, etc.
Alternative Pathway
Reference Scenario
2030: -universal access
-renewable energy targets-energy intensity targets
Current: -carbon price
-energy efficiency policies-traditional biomass use
-technology profiles
Alternative Scenario
ETSAP-TIAMReferencePathway
Assessment of Pathway
ETSAP-TIAM
Scenarios / Pathways
• Extensive scenario analysis conducted by IEA and IIASA in the literature, considering hundreds of scenarios and determining whether or not they meet the SE4ALL objectives.
• Current policies for EE, RE, and carbon are used to create the reference pathway. These inputs are included in all model runs.
• Alternative pathways are fixed exogenous inputs
• RE pathway from IRENA
• EE pathway a linear approach to 2.6% EIIR (Energy Intensity Improvement Rate) by 2030.
• Energy Access
Model Runs
•Reference - incl. current carbon policy, energy efficiency policy, energy efficiency barriers, and renewable energy share.
•Energy Efficiency (EE) - Achieve 2.6% EIIR by 2030 (this target approached linearly in the pathway)
•Renewable Energy (RE) - renewable energy targets such that the share of global renewable energy is doubled by 2030. Region-specific targets follow those outlined by International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) global renewable roadmap (REMap2030).
•EE and RE - combines the constraints from both the energy efficiency and renewable energy scenarios.
•EE, RE and Energy Access (EA) – increased electricity demand and phasing out of traditional biomass in addition to EE and RE constraints
ETSAP-TIAM Regions
ETSAP-TIAM Regions
AFR Africa
AUS Australia & NZ
CAN Canada
CHI China
CSA Central and South America
EEU Eastern Europe
FSU Former Soviet Union
IND India
JPN Japan
MEA Middle East
MEX Mexico
ODA Other Developing Asia
SKO South Korea
USA United States
WEU Western Europe
ETSAP-TIAM Structure
Climate
Module
Atm. Conc.
ΔForcing
ΔTemp
Used for
reporting &
setting
targets
Biomass
Potential
Renewable
Potential
Nuclear
Fossil Fuel
Reserves
(oil, coal, gas)
ExtractionUpstream
Fuels
Trade
Secondary
Transformation
OPEC/
NON-OPEC
regrouping
Electricity
Fuels
Electricity
Cogeneration
Heat
Hydrogen production
and distribution
End Use
Fuels
Industrial
Service
CompositionAuto Production
Cogeneration
Carbon
captureCH4 options
Carbon
sequestration
Terrestrial
sequestration
Landfills ManureBio burning, rice,
enteric fermWastewater
CH4 options
N2O options
CH4 options
OI****
GA****
CO****
Trade
ELC***
WIN SOL
GEO TDL
BIO***
NUC
HYD
BIO***
HETHET
ELCELC
SYNH2
BIO***
CO2
ELC
GAS***
COA***
Industrial
Tech.
Commercial
Tech.
Transport
Tech.
Residential
Tech.
Agriculture
Tech.I***
I** (6)T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1)
INDELC
INDELC
IS**
Demands
IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES***
Non-energy
sectors (CH4)
OIL***
Time frame
• ETSAP-TIAM is calibrated to IEA 2005 data and this is the model base year
• Demand driver data were updated to 2010 data (IEA, World Bank, OECD)