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Agenda
Context
Driver population
7 development issues (from IDP IGR)
Capital investment patterns
Scenarios
Conclusion
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Introduction
First decade of democracy significant improvement to quality of life
for many South Africans
Number of challenges remain:
unemployment, poverty, housing backlog, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis,
crime, overburdened infrastructure, inefficient resource use &
increasing pollution levels
Above are inter-related & require integrated, strategic actions
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Overall Developmental Context
Last decade - real progress in number of sectors
But poverty & its related problems have persisted in midst of
economic affluence
Economic development not accompanied by attendant degree of
social progress
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Population Growth
Population growth expected to slow dramatically over next 15 years:
0
5 0 0 ,0 0 0
1 ,0 0 0 , 0 0 0
1 ,5 0 0 , 0 0 0
2 ,0 0 0 , 0 0 0
2 ,5 0 0 , 0 0 0
3 ,0 0 0 , 0 0 0
3 ,5 0 0 , 0 0 0
4 ,0 0 0 , 0 0 0
4 ,5 0 0 , 0 0 0
2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6 2 0 2 1
T o ta l - m id d le m ig r a tio n
T o ta l - h ig h m ig r a t io n
T o t a l - lo w m ig r a t io n
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Population Growth
Growth slowing due to:
- reduced fertility
- impact of HIV/AIDS
- reduced migration to city
Implications
Ageing population requires appropriate social & healthcare facilities
Mechanisms must be found to engage youth through sport, recreation &
employment
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Socio-Economic conditions
Changes to development path of city constrained by trends which
are reinforcing social / spatial segregation & inequalities
Problem is not absence of economic growth - but failure to harmonize
economic & social development objectives
Benefits of economic progress do not reach population as a whole
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ENVIRONMENT
Acute pressures on key environmental resources
Major obstacles to economic & social progress
Pressure on water resources
Recent shortages in energy supply
Emerging crisis around regional landfill site and high levels of waste
(amount of waste disposed per capita increasing at alarming rate -
60% increase from 1999 to 2005)
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SPATIAL & REGIONAL PLANNING
Current urban form:
- unsustainable- economically unproductive
- prohibits integration
Addressing sprawl is a key challenge
Cape Town grew by 40% in area between 1985-2005
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HUMAN & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
Social & economic challenges are reflected in:
- high levels of absolute poverty
- inadequate housing
- poor health status- exclusion of certain segments of population
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Human & Social Development
Poverty (% of population living below household subsistence level)
2 5 %
3 2 %
3 8 %
0 %
5 %
1 0 %
1 5 %
2 0 %
2 5 %
3 0 %
3 5 %
4 0 %
1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 5
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Human & Social Development
HIV prevalence (national blue and Provincial pink)
0 .8 % 1.4 %2 .4 %
4 .3 %
7 .6 %
10 .4 %
14 .2 %
16 .0 %
2 2 .8 % 2 2 .4 %
2 4 .5 % 2 4 .8 %
2 6 .5 %2 7 .9 %
2 9 .5 %3 0 .2 %
1.2 % 1.7 %3 .1%
6 .3 %5 .2 %
7 .1%8 .7 % 8 .6 %
12 .4 % 13 .1%
15 .4 % 15 .7 %
0 .0 %
5 .0 %
10 .0 %
15 .0 %
2 0 .0 %
2 5 .0 %
3 0 .0 %
3 5 .0 %
19 9 0 19 9 1 19 9 2 19 9 3 19 9 4 19 9 5 19 9 6 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
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Human & Social Development:implications
Highest prevalence: Nyanga & Khayelitsha (higher than national 30%)
Many residents poor, uneducated, with little HIV/AIDS prevention
education, & poor access to health care
Need for youth development strategies to address future poverty,
HIV/AIDS & unemployment (given 50% of population will be younger
than 31 years)
Goals only achieved through coordinated efforts of 3 spheres of
government & active involvement of civil society
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Economy
City economy contributed 11.1% to GDP (2005)
Main challenge: creation of employment opportunities
Unemployment has grown from 13% (1997) to 23% in 2004
Distribution of economic growth - highly skewed towards those with
skills & access to resources
Large majority precluded from meaningful participation in economy
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Economy
Comparison of level of unemployment (pink) & GGP (blue)
1 81 9 . 7
1 6 . 51 5
1 3 . 3
2 3 . 8 2 3 . 4
1 9 . 8
8 2 . 6 8 2 . 78 6 . 3
9 0 . 6
1 1 21 0 6 . 41 0 2 . 6
9 8 . 69 4 . 7
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
3 5
1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
%
une
m
o
m
ent
0 . 0
2 0 . 0
4 0 . 0
6 0 . 0
8 0 . 0
1 0 0 . 0
1 2 0 . 0
1 4 0 . 0
G
G
P
(R
billions)
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INTEGRATED HUMANSETTLEMENTS
Many residents live in informal settlements:
- Approx. 14% of all housing is informal housing- 260 000 - 400 000 households presently living in depressed physical
conditions
Inadequate services & infrastructure
Resulting in social & economic problems
Key challenge: managing housing & infrastructural demands &
backlogs
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Integrated Human Settlements
15 0 0 0 0
2 6 5 0 0 0
2 4 5 0 0 0
2 4 5 0 0 02 6 5 0 0 0
2 4 5 0 0 0
2 2 10 0 0
2 4 0 0 0 0
4 110 18 0 8 3 4 6 99 7 2 9
0
5 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 0 0
2 5 0 0 0 0
3 0 0 0 0 0
3 5 0 0 0 0
19 9 8 19 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 10
H
ousin
g
backlog
(no
.of
dw
elling
units
)
0
5 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 0 0
2 5 0 0 0 0
3 0 0 0 0 0
3 5 0 0 0 0
housing
delivery
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Integrated Human Settlements
No. of shacks in Cape Town (actual counts)
28300
83684
98031
94972
96951
72140
59854R
2= 0.9815
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
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TRANSPORT
Outdated transport network- focussed on private car use &
traditional destinations (e.g. CBD)
Current urban form generates large amounts of movement
Great financial, social & environmental cost to city
Increase of 23 323 vehicles 2001-2003
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Transport
Life inconvenient & expensive for those who cannot afford a car .
Poor have little access to economic/social opportunities
Public transport system inefficient:
- difficult to switch from one mode to another
- some parts of city inaccessible
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CRIME
High crime rate- a main challenge
Negatively affects economy:
- tourists put off
- businesses discouraged from investing
Contributes to rising poverty- limits assets & livelihood sources of
poor
Fear of crime leads to fragmentation & polarisation in city
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Crime
Incidence of rape (reported cases per 100 000 population)
R e p o r t e d r a p e c a s e s p e r 1 0 0 0 0 0
13 512 5
11812 4
0
2 5
5 0
7 5
1 0 01 2 5
1 5 0
2 0 0 1 / 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 / 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 3 / 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 / 2 0 0 5
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Crime
Drug-related crime
D r u g r e l a t e d c r i m e p e r 1 0 0 0 0 0
2 4 1 2 3 2
3 14
4 8 2
0
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 0 0
4 0 0
5 0 0
2 0 0 1 / 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 / 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 3 / 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 / 2 0 0 5
Capital Investment Patterns
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Capital Investment Patterns2001 - 2005
UNDP Environmental Resource Management
MCA Sustainability Institute
Resource flows
Capital Investment Patterns
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The ideas and concepts presented in the MSDF are as relevant todayas they were when it was drafted. More importantly, the development
challenges the region 15 years ago seem as apt today as they werethen. ,
In 2006, even a cursory glance at Cape Town suggests that not muchhas changed in terms of development patterns from 15 years ago.Whilst the plan above looks impressive, many of the projectsidentified there have yet to reach fruition. Apartheid has become
concretised in the many new low-income housing estates. Newmalls have sprung up (such as Cape Gate and Century City), thereare more cars on the road than ever before and the modal splitbetween public and private transport remains unchanged.
Significantly, there have been no changes to the way in which water,waste water, solid waste and energy is delivered and distributed.
Capital Investment Patterns2001 - 2005
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TOTAL INVESTMENT WITHIN CORRIDORS
UNDER CONSTRUCTON R 4,301,642,000,000
UNDER CONSTRUCTON BILLIONS R 4,800,000,000,000
COMP FINAL R 2,152,945,000,000
C AREAS PFINAL2 R 541,000,000
APPROVED R 2,479,000,000
TOTAL R 11,257,607,000,000
TOTAL INVESTMENT OUTSIDE OF CORRIDORS
UNDER CONSTRUCTON R 10,803,743,700,000
UNDER CONSTRUCTON BILLIONS R 10,300,000,000,000
COMP FINAL R 2,017,000,000
COMP BILLIONS R 1,117,336,000,000
C AREAS PFINAL2 R 2,522,000,000
APPROVED R 1,602,684,000,000
APPROVED BILLIONS R 1,600,000,000,000
TOTAL R 25,428,302,700,000
These figures account only for projects valued at over R10million each
Capital Investment Patterns
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Housing development and meeting demand for residential growth has been akey determinant of investment is water and sanitation infrastructure. The
issue here is that investment is often demand driven, ad hoc and responsiverather than co-ordinated and driven by long term strategic focus. Majorinvestment in bulk infrastructure required for new housing development, mostnotably in northern areas of the city, as well as housing projects on the CapeFlats such Delft and more recently N2 Gateway projects (albeit more limitedthan the former) are examples of this.
The lack of investment in some aspects of service delivery is as important asthat which has been invested in to date. Maintenance focussed capitalinvestment has been significantly compromised in the context of greatdemand, limited funding and little strategic focus. For example, plannedrefurbishment and replacement of trunk sewers falling are behind and wastewater treatment works capacity is tending to fall behind the needs, as a result
of reduced budgets for maintenance and necessary capital works.
Capital Investment Patterns2001 - 2005
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Capital Investment Patterns
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The institutional system which drives transport investment in the City is
complex, fragmented and un-coordinated. The City of Cape Town has not
been able to influence the full spectrum of transport components thatconstitute the transport system as a whole. Fragmentation and poor co-
ordination between the City and external agencies as well as between the
sectoral departments of the City is common.
Land use patterns and trends, particularly the rapid (peripheral) spatial
expansion of the City over the last ten to fifteen years has encompassed
significant road construction. Accommodating the needs of private sector
development has come at significant capital costs. The majority of the total
construction costs have been borne by the City, with limited developer
contributions. The road network is continually being expanded through capital
investment, so maintenance costs are continually rising. The maintenance
burden imposed on the City as a result is enormous.
Capital Investment Patterns2001 - 2005
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Capital Investment Patterns
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The Citys investment has for many years focused on road based
transport, supporting and reinforcing private motor vehicle based
transportation, with significant resource consumption (fuel) and
pollution (emissions) implications. Currently, transport investment is
responsive to housing development (largely private sector), rather
than directing such development, again undermining efficiency. Theexisting (ever increasing) maintenance burden and underinvestment
in road maintenance is also highly unsustainable. The city simply
does not have the resources to continue to manage this.
Capital Investment Patterns2001 - 2005
Th N d f Ch
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The Need for Change
Desiredscenario
Spatial and economicinequalities persist,Some socialimprovement
Equitable
Globally CompetitiveAccessible
Apartheid city
2020 Scenarios
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2020 Scenarios
Bold and Beautiful (Pumping Funding, Ecological Stability)
50-50 (Stagnant Funding, Ecological Stability)
Yizo-Yizo (Pumping Funding, Ecological Distress)
Going Nowhere Slowly (Stagnant Funding, Ecological Distress).
StagnantFunding
EcologicalDistress
EcologicalStability
Yizo-YizoGoing Nowhere
Slowly
The Bold and
The Beautiful
PumpingFunding
50-50
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CONCLUSION
We need change in our approach in addressing challenges
A crossroad:
- continue with current path
- Or change path towards shared growth
Many challenges (i.e. HIV/AIDS, crime & housing backlog) will
remain with us for long time
Be realistic about what can be achieved
I ti f d ti h it i th l h i h it
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Thank You Enkosi Dankie
SOURCE: STATE OF CAPE TOWN REPORT 2006 -
DEVELOPMENT ISSUES IN CAPE TOWN (FIRST DRAFT)
In times of drastic change it is the learners who inherit
the future. The learned usually find themselves equippedto live in a world that no longer exists - Eric Hoffer