Development and validation of a hybrid physical-ecological model for Narragansett Bay: EcoGEM. Jamie Vaudrey Department of Marine Sciences, Uconn Manager’s.

Development and validation of a hybrid physical-ecological model for Narragansett Bay: EcoGEM.

Jamie VaudreyDepartment of Marine Sciences, Uconn

Manager’s Meeting, URIMay 3, 2012

Acknowledgementsfunded by NOAA CHRP 2005, 2011

collaboratorsChristelle Balt

Deanna Bergondo, PIMark Brush, PI

Daniel Codiga, PIChristopher Deacutis, PI

Wally FulweilerSue Kiernan, PIChris Kincaid, PIJames Kremer, PIJason KrumholzNicole LaSota

David MurrayScott Nixon, PI

Candace Oviatt, lead-PIAnna Pfeiffer-Herbert

Warren Prell, PIEdwin Requintina Sr.

Leslie SmithHeather Stoffel

David Ullman, PIJamie Vaudrey

15 Boxes

Surface Element

Bottom Element

DO2

N P

N

Land-use

Atmosphericdeposition

N P

Productivity

Temp, Light,Boundary Conditions

Chl, N, P, Salinity

Phytoplankton

.

.

PhysicsSurface layer

- - - - - - - - -

Deep layer

- - - - - - - - -

Bottom sediment

Flux tobottom

Photic zoneheterotrophy

Benthicheterotrophy Denitri-

fication

O2 coupledstoichiometricallyBZI

ƒ(Chl2d)ƒ[Chl]

ƒ(OM,T) %

Processes of the model & basis for formulations:

mixing flushing

only 17 constants and coefficients

Benthic C

River 1 = Moshassuck + Woonasquatucket River 2 = Blackstone + Ten Mile + Bucklin Point WWTF

River 3 = Pawtuxet

River 4 = Taunton + (est. Mt. Hope and Sakkonet)

River 5 = Hunt

River 6 = PalmerRiver 7 = Fields Point WWTF + E. Providence WWTF

2006

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Fra

ctio

n of

Flo

w A

ttrib

uted

to

Eac

h S

ourc

e

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Woonasquatucket RiverMoshassuck River

2006

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

DIN

(m

g/L)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Date vs Riv 1 Moshassuck Date vs Riv 1 Woonasquatucket Date vs Moshassuck River @ Mill Street Bridge Date vs Woonasquatucket River @ Valley Street Date vs River 1 = Moshassuck + Woonasquatucket

Nutrient Multipliers

Control Nutrient Input by Day

Example of Model Scenario

J/06 A/06 J/06 O/060

20

40Salt

ppt

J/06 A/06 J/06 O/060

0.05

0.1Phosphorous

gP

/ m

3

J/06 A/06 J/06 O/060

0.5

1Phytoplankton

gC /

m3

J/06 A/06 J/06 O/060

20

40Benthic C

gC

/ m

2J/06 A/06 J/06 O/060

0.5

1Nitrogen

gN

/ m

3

J/06 A/06 J/06 O/060

10

20Oxygen

gO2 /

m3

Box2-- blue = surface red = bottom

days

Box2-- blue = surface red = bottom

days

Box2-- blue = surface red = bottom

days

Box2-- blue = surface red = bottom

days

bold lines = 80% reduction in N and P input

Future Work

• add in 2007

• improve model interface

• provide more detailed analysis on the skill of the model

• conduct demonstration scenarios

oxygen, buoy oxygen, CTD phyto, buoy N P0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

ROC

Scor

e

skilled

unskilled

n = 2301 n = 98 n = 1271 n = 179 n = 164maximum

0 10 200

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Root Mean Square Error (lower is better)

element number

Phyto

(u

g/L

)

0 10 200

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1Pearsons Correlation Coefficient

element number

r (u

nit

less)

0 10 200

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1Wilmott Skill

WS

(un

itle

ss)

element number0 10 20

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1Median Relative Error

fracti

on

element number

0 10 200

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35Root Mean Square Error (lower is better)

element number

N (

mg/L

)

0 10 200

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1Pearsons Correlation Coefficient

element number

r (u

nit

less)

0 10 200

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1Wilmott Skill

WS

(un

itle

ss)

element number0 10 20

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1Median Relative Error

fracti

on

element number

Phytoplankton - buoy data

Nitrogen0 10 20

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045Root Mean Square Error (lower is better)

element number

P (

mg

/L)

0 10 200

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1Pearsons Correlation Coefficient

element number

r (u

nit

less)

0 10 200

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1Wilmott Skill

WS

(un

itle

ss)

element number0 10 20

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1Median Relative Error

fracti

on

element number

Phosphorus

0 10 200

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5Root Mean Square Error (lower is better)

element number

Oxy

gen

(m

g/L

)

0 10 200

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1Pearsons Correlation Coefficient

element number

r (u

nit

less

)

0 10 200

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1Wilmott Skill

WS

(un

itle

ss)

element number0 10 20

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1Median Relative Error

frac

tion

element number

0 10 200

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5Root Mean Square Error (lower is better)

element number

Oxy

gen

(m

g/L

)

0 10 200

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1Pearsons Correlation Coefficient

element number

r (u

nit

less

)

0 10 200

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1Wilmott Skill

WS

(un

itle

ss)

element number0 10 20

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1Median Relative Error

frac

tion

element number

Oxygen - buoy data

Oxygen - CTD areal avg.

J/06 A/06 J/06 O/060

1

2

3Phytoplankton

gC /

m3

J/06 A/06 J/06 O/060

0.5

1

1.5Nitrogen

gN /

m3

J/06 A/06 J/06 O/060

10

20Oxygen

gO2 /

m3

J/06 A/06 J/06 O/060

0.1

0.2Phosphorous

gP /

m3

J/06 A/06 J/06 O/060

20

40Salt

ppt

J/06 A/06 J/06 O/060

10

20

30Benthic C

gC /

m2

Box1-- blue = surface red = bottom

days

Box1-- blue = surface red = bottom

days