1A.1 Developing Baseline Socioeconomic Scenarios for V&A Assessments Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE) Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation for Asia and Pacific Countries 20~24 March 2006 Jakarta, Indonesia Xianfu Lu National Communications Support Programme (NCSP), UNDP-UNEP-GEF [email protected]
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Developing Baseline Socioeconomic Scenarios for V&A Assessments
Developing Baseline Socioeconomic Scenarios for V&A Assessments. Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE) Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation for Asia and Pacific Countries 20~24 March 2006 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1A.1
Developing Baseline Socioeconomic Scenarios for V&A
AssessmentsConsultative Group of Experts on National Communications
from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE)Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation
for Asia and Pacific Countries20~24 March 2006Jakarta, Indonesia
Xianfu LuNational Communications Support Programme (NCSP), UNDP-
• Introduction: what are baseline socio-economic scenarios and why do we need them?
• Procedures for developing socio-economic scenarios: how to develop socioeconomic scenarios?
• Guidance documents, and data sources• Examples
1A.3
Introduction: what are baseline socio-economic
scenarios?
• Socio-economic scenarios are plausible, and often simplified, representation of future state of socio-economic parameters, i.e., they are neither predictions nor forecasts;
• Baseline socio-economic scenarios are scenarios that do not account for the effects of climate change.
1A.4
Increasing demand for policy relevant information has led to the growing consideration of multiple stressors and drivers in V&A assessments.
Introduction: why do we need baseline socio-economic
scenarios?
1A.5
V&A assessments suffer from serious weakness if by default they assume that the projected climates will take place in a world with a society and economy similar to today.
Introduction: why do we need baseline socio-economic
scenarios? (continued)
1A.6
Features about the socio-economic future that have a bearing on our response to climate change. They affect:• Availability of resources to cope with climate change• The administrative quality of future governments• Ability of special interest groups to influence the
public agenda
Introduction: why do we need baseline socio-economic
scenarios? (continued)
1A.7
Interactions between society/economy and climate impacts and adaptation is that socio-economic developments can make the world more or less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
Introduction: why do we need baseline socio-economic
scenarios? (continued)
1A.8
• Flooding events may be worse if there is a larger population living on the flood plain as a result of planning decisions.
• The effect of climate change on crop yields will depend on how many farmers have planted the crops, whether their farm income is dependent on that crop, in turn depending on agricultural subsidies, access to technology and so on.
• Some technological developments, such as improvement of weather forecasting, may better enable precautions to be taken to diminish vulnerability to extreme weather events.
Introduction: why do we need baseline socio-economic
scenarios? (continued)
1A.9
• Flooding events may be worse if there is a larger population living on the flood plain as a result of planning decisions.
• The effect of climate change on crop yields will depend on how many farmers have planted the crops, whether their farm income is dependent on that crop, in turn depending on agricultural subsidies, access to technology and so on.
• Some technological developments, such as improvement of weather forecasting, may better enable precautions to be taken to diminish vulnerability to extreme weather events.
Introduction: why do we need baseline socio-economic
scenarios? (continued)
1A.10
If you think the task of developing climate scenarios is difficult, the job of generating socio-economic scenarios is even more complex.Due to the fast changing, and poorly understood interactions of factors operating within socio-economic systems, it is not possible to construct socio-economic scenarios on the same long-term time-scales as climate scenarios.
Procedures for developing socio-economic scenarios
1A.11
Procedures for developing socio-economic scenarios – general approach
NOT every scenario exercise has to go through all the steps. Efforts could be saved by making use of existing elements of scenarios.
1A.12
Procedures for developing socio-economic scenarios: identify drivers
• Key factors that define impacts, vulnerability and adaptive capacity;
• Often not directly measurable (e.g., social wellbeing, quality of governance, etc.)
• Wide stakeholder participation required
1A.13
Procedures for developing socio-economic scenarios: develop narrative storylines
• Qualitative and holistic portraits of the general structure and values of society;
• Conditions resulting from economic and social policies, human reproduction, occupations, and use of energy and technology;
• Major national and regional development policy and plans to be consulted;
• Stakeholders to be widely engaged
1A.14
Procedures for developing socio-economic scenarios: identify indicators
• Most relevant measurements of the key factors that define impacts, vulnerability and adaptive capacity;
• Indicators to be quantifiable; • Wide stakeholder participation
required
1A.15
Procedures for developing socio-economic scenarios: develop narrative storylines
• Qualitative and holistic portraits of the general structure and values of society;
• Conditions resulting from economic and social policies, human reproduction, occupations, and use of energy and technology;
• Major national and regional development policy and plans to be consulted;
• Stakeholders to be widely engaged
1A.16
Procedures for developing socio-economic scenarios: project indicators/parametres
•Model simulation (e.g., SRES);
•Analogues;•Expert judgement
1A.17
Baselines for Bangladesh“Best Guess” Macro Projections for Bangladesh
1998 2020 2050
Population (millions) 124 168 218
GDP (billions) $28.6a $72.2 $180.0
GDP/capita $220 $430 $825 a. 1995 value.
Source for 1998 data: WRI, 1998.
Optimistic Macro Projections for Bangladesh
1998 2020 2050
Population (millions) 124 165 165
GDP (billions) $28.6a $206.3 $1,485.0
GDP/capita $220 $1,250 $9,000 a. 1995 value.
Source for 1998 data: WRI, 1998.
1A.18
Vulnerability IndicatorsVulnerability Indicators for 2020
1998 Bangladesh
2020 Best Guess for Bangladesh
2020 Optimistic for Bangladesh
Analogue Country Pakistan Kazakhstan GDP/Capita $240 $460 $1330 % of Economy in Agriculture 30% 25% 12% Life Expectancy in Years (1995-2000) 58 64 68 % Pop. with Access to Health Care 45% 55% Not available Literacy 38% 39% 98% Sources: WRI, 1998; literacy rates from CIA, 1998.
Vulnerability Indicators for 2050
1998
Bangladesh 2050 Best Guess for Bangladesh
2050 Optimistic for Bangladesh
Analogue Country Bolivia South Korea GDP/Capita $240 $800 $9,700 % of Economy in Agriculture 30% 17% 8% Life Expectancy (1995-2000) 58 62 73 % Pop. with Access to Health Care 45% 67% 100% Literacy 38% 83% 98% Sources: WRI, 1998; literacy rates from CIA, 1998.
1A.19
Procedures for developing socio-economic scenarios: criteria
• Relevance - applicable to public and private sector decision-making
• Consistency- based on coherent assumptions;
• Credibility - not over-estimating the rate of change;
• Transparency – explicit account of assumptions
1A.20
Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios
• IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) makes projections about emissions of GHGs and aerosols up to 2100 for the purpose of modelling climate change;
• The world divided into four macro-regions (ALM, ASIA, REF, OECD90);
• Six modelling teams (6 modelling teams: AIM, ASF, IMAGE, MARIA, MESSAGE, MiniCAM)
• Open process;• “Storyline-and-Simulation” approach
1A.21
• Scoping and planning;• Identify drivers;• Formulate narrative storylines;• Quantify storylines using models;• “Open” review process
Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios – the process
1A.22
Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios – guiding principles
• No ‘business as usual’ scenario• No probabilities ascribed• No climate policy assumed• No adaptation assumed
1A.23
Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios – principal drivers
• Population growth• GDP growth• Energy and technological
change• Land-use change
1A.24
Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios – the storylines
Four quadrants along two axes• Governance
(autonomy vs interdependence);
• Aspiration/value (consumerism vs. community)
1A.25
Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios – the storylines
Four distinctive future worlds depicted by the four storylines…
1A.26
Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios – the storylines
A1: rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid adoption of new technologies, convergence of regions, capacity building, increased social interaction, reduced region differences in per capita income;
A2: heterogenous world, self-reliance and local identities preserved, high population growth, regionally-specific economic growth, fragmented economic and technological development
1A.27
Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios – the storylines
B1: convergent world with low population growth,
transition to service and info economy, resource productivity improvements, clean technology towards global solutions
B2: Divergent world with emphasis on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, moderate population growth, intermediate levels of economic growth, less rapid technological change
1A.28
Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios – the scenarios
1A.29
Example: the IPCC SRES Scenarios – the scenarios
1A.30
Example: Developing socio-economic scenarios for V&A assessment
in water resource sector (Indonesia)
• Key drivers: level of water demand in the 21st Century
• Storylines: SRES A2 and B2• Indicators:
o population change rate;o GDP growth rateo level of development of domestic water
resourceso Water withdrawal per capita
1A.31
Example: Developing socio-economic scenarios for V&A assessment
in water resource sector (Indonesia)
Step 1: Derive estimates of population and GDP changes from SRES (or other sources) in relation to base year (1990)
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population change 36 54 72 90 106
Population change 32 47 59 69 77
GDP change 121 292 521 828 1207
GDP change 121 335 635 1150 1750
1A.32
Example: Developing socio-economic scenarios for V&A assessment
in water resource sector (Indonesia)
Step 2: Estimate level of development of domestic water resources
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Level of development of domestic water resources 2.90 5.57 6.07 7.13 17.4
Level of development of domestic water resources 2.90 5.39 5.77 6.54 23.20
)()( 1990,2050,199020501990 rrt GDPGDPLLLL
sourcesWithdrawalLRe
9.21990 L
1A.33
Example: Developing socio-economic scenarios for V&A assessment
in water resource sector (Indonesia)
Step 3: Estimate annual water withdrawal
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Annual water withdrawal 158.09 172.25 202.28 299.46 493.81
Annual water withdrawal 153.03 163.73 185.64 274.34 658.42
resourcesLWithdrawal *
)2838(Re 31990 kmsources
1A.34
Example: Developing socio-economic scenarios for V&A assessment
in water resource sector (Indonesia)
Step 4: Estimate per capita water withdrawal
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
water withdrawal per capital 563.45 542.17 570.05 763.98 1161.97
water withdrawal per capital 561.97 539.90 565.95 786.87 1803.13
PopulationWithdrawalWithdrawal percapita 910
)103.206( 62000 Population
1A.35
Guidance documents 1. Guidelines on the use of scenario data for climate impact
and adaptation assessment (http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/guidelines/ggm_no1_v1_12-1999.pdf)
2. Developing Socio-Economic Scenarios for Use in Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments (http://www.undp.org/cc/pdf/publications%20and%20flyers/SES_draft.pdf)
3. Socio-economic scenarios for climate change impact assessment: a guide to their use in the UK (http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publications/pub_dets.asp?ID=34)
4. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm)