Design and Evaluation of an Orbital Debris …catsr.vse.gmu.edu/SYST490/490_2015_SpaceDebris/OrbDebris_Final...Design and Evaluation of an Orbital Debris Remediation System 1 Collision

DesignandEvaluationofanOrbitalDebrisRemediationSystem

1

CollisionRisk

RemediationDesigns

DebrisRemediationSystems

UtilityvsLCC

ADRDesignEvaluation

*Spaceobjectsnottoscale

Agenda

• Background• ProblemStatement• DesignAlternatives• MethodofAnalysis• ResultsandRecommendations• BusinessCase

2

UsesofSpaceandRevenue

3

Source:SIASSIR,2015

OperationalSatellitesbyFunction (left)andGlobalSatelliteIndustryRevenues(right)

ContributionstoSpaceDebrisRisk1. State-sponsoredactiveanti-satellitemeasures– ChineseASATmissile,2007

2. Randomcollisions,explosions,andmalfunctions– Iridium33andCosmos2251,2009– 3000piecesofdebris

4Source:T.S.Kelso,2013

DebrisCloud 3HoursPostCollision DebrisCloud 27Months PostCollision

PopulationGrowth• 90%PostMission

Disposal(PMD) doesnothaltgrowthofpopulation

• 90%PMDalongwith2high-riskobjectsremovedperyearslowsbutdoesnothaltgrowth

• 90%PMDcoupledwith5high-riskobjectsremovedperyearleadstoastableenvironment

5

Source:J.C.Liou,2011

OrbitalMechanics[1]• Inordertoattainorbit,alargehorizontalvelocityisrequired

• DuetothecurvatureoftheEarth,thegroundwill“fallaway”fromtheobjectasitmovesfast

• Bymodifyingthisvelocity,theorbitcanbemodifiedaswell

6Source:S.M.Kanbur,2006

OrbitalMechanics[2]• AsthemassofthesatelliteisnegligiblecomparedtothatoftheEarth,thevelocityofacircularorbitwithanaltitudeR(inkilometers)isfoundby:

𝑉 =398,600𝑘𝑚

+

𝑠-6378𝑘𝑚+ 𝑅

• Example:circularorbitwithanaltitudeof2000km:

𝑉 =398,600𝑘𝑚

+

𝑠-8378𝑘𝑚 = 6.8976

𝑘𝑚𝑠

7

OrbitalMechanics[3]

• Changeinvelocity:∆𝑉 = 𝑉4 − 𝑉-

• Counterangularvelocity:

6𝜏(𝑡) = −𝐼𝜔=>=?=@A

• Atmosphericdrag:

𝐹C =𝜌𝑉-𝐶C𝐴

28

Agenda


9

UnitedStates

Russian

China Europe

(1)NationalGovernments (2)CivilOrganizations

NASA ESA

RFSA CNSA

IADC

(3)CommercialindustrySystem

ManufacturersTransportCompanies

InsuranceCompanies

XLCATLIN

STARR

SpaceX

ULA

OrbitalSciences

LockheedMartin

Boeing

Airbus

Spacecraftlaunchservices

Contracts Contracts

Research,collectdataandprovideoverallguidance

Financialissue

Tensions

Objectives

Politicalissue

StakeholderRelationships

10

Spacecraftlaunchservices

Approvespacepolicy, andprovidefunding

ProblemStatement

• PostMissionDisposal(PMD)aloneisnotsufficienttocontroldebrisenvironment;remediationwillbenecessary.• Need:consensusonthebestremediationstrategyfororbitaldebris.

11

GapAnalysis

Todatenoclearremediationsolutionprioritizationhasbeenperformedtoinclude

cost,effectiveness,andtechnologyreadinesslevel.

12

NeedStatement

Remediationofatleast5high-riskobjectsperyearisrequiredtomaintain

asustainablespaceenvironment

13

ProblemSummary

Problem:Debrisremediationmustoccur,butthecommunityisunsurehowtoproceed

Solution:Performacomprehensiveanalysisofremediationdesignalternatives

ExpectedResults:Provideafoundationofworkthatenhancescurrentcapabilitiesandcatalyzesthecommunitytooperationalizeremediationsolutions

14

ScopeandAssumptions

• Orbitalplanechangesareincrediblyexpensiveintermsofdelta-Vcost

• Thegoalistominimizedelta-Vcost,andanystrategythatinvolvesplanechangeswillbevastlymoreexpensivethanthosewithoutplanechanges

• Therefore,orbitalinclinationscanbepre-selectedtohavethelowestdelta-Vcostsandthehighestmassderelicts

• Threehigh-densityinclinations:71°,74° and81°

15

ADRMissionRequirements• MR.1TheADRsolutionshallfocusremediationeffortsinLEO(below2000km).

• MR.2TheADRsolutionshallselecthigh-riskobjectsasafunctionofmassandcollisionprobability.

• MR.3TheADRsolutionshallde-orbitatleast5high-riskdebrisobjectsperyearfor10years.

• MR.4TheADRsolutionshallreleasenomoreobjectsorvehiclesthanitrecovers.

• MR.5TheADRsolutionshallexecutede-orbitmaneuverwithin2monthsofend-of-life.

16

ADRFunctionalRequirements

• FR.1TheADRsolutionshallbeabletomaneuverthroughoutLEO(upto2000km).

• FR.2TheADRsolutionshallbeabletoengagewithdebrisupto8300kg(drymassofSL-16).

• FR.3TheADRsolutionshallbeabletoremovedebrisobjectsfromorbit.

17

Agenda


18

SystemIntegration

19

Satelliteowners,operators,

etc.

DebrisRemediation

System

Politicalviabilityandapproval

Insure&Register(OrbitCoordinates)

Runanalysis

Confirm(Location,Time,andTarget)

ManufactureselectedADRdesign(s)

ADRManufacturer

Deploy(Location,Time,andTarget)

insurance&UNregistry

LaunchProviders

Dispose

SatelliteServicesUsers

SpaceDebris

$

$

$

$

$Service

Service

Service

Populationreduction

Risk

Nationalgovernment

Commercial industry

Civilorganizations

OverviewofActiveDebrisRemoval

20

ActiveDebrisRemoval(ADR)ConceptofOperations:1. Identifyandlaunchtowardsthetargetobject2. Maneuverandrendezvouswithtarget3. Grapplewithtarget4. De-tumbletarget,ifnecessary5. De-orbittheobjectfromorbit

DesignAlternatives

21

CONOPSStep: DesignAlternatives:1.Launch ChemicalPropulsion

2.Rendezvous ElectricPropulsionChemicalPropulsion

3.Grapple

RoboticArmThrowNetHarpoonCOBRAIRIDES

4.De-tumble ElectricPropulsionChemicalPropulsion

5. De-orbit

EDDEInflatablesElectricPropulsionChemicalPropulsionElectromagnetic

1.Launchand2.RendezvousDesigns

22

Name: Stage: Mass(kg): CosttoLEO($/kg):

DeltaIV 1 6,747 $13,0722 301

AtlasV 1 5,479 $13,1822 166

Falcon9 1 418,100 $4,1092 96,570

DeltaIV AtlasV

Source:ULA

3.GrappleDesigns

23

Name: TRL: Mass(kg): TargetMass(kg):RoboticArm 6 80 7000ThrowNet 5 60 10000Harpoon 4 9.3 9000COBRAIRIDES 3 140 150EDDE 2 76 8300

RoboticArm ThrowNet

Harpoon

Source:ESA

5.De-orbitDesigns

Name: Description: Mass(kg):EDDE System ofelectrodynamic tethers 80Inflatables Add foamtodebristoincreasesurface area 1000Propulsion Modify the altitude 314

24

EDDE InflatablesSource:Star-TechInc. Source:ESA

Agenda


25

ADRCONOPS

26

Launch RendezvouswithDebris

GrapplewithDebris

De-tumbleDebris

De-orbitDebris

1.Launchand2.Rendezvous

• 𝑋 𝑡 =

0 𝑥4-(𝑡)𝑥-4(𝑡) 0 ⋯ 𝑥4>(𝑡)

⋮ ⋱ ⋮𝑥M4(𝑡) ⋯ 0

• 𝑥=N 𝑡 = ∆𝑉 = 𝑉= − 𝑉N• ConvertTLEdatatostatevectors• Thesematricesvaryovertime

27

3.Grapple• Metrics:

– Mass– Altitude– Rotation

• Output:– 𝑂𝑅𝑆= 𝑋 = 𝑚𝑎𝑠𝑠= 𝑋 +𝑎𝑙𝑡= 𝑋 + 𝑟𝑜𝑡= 𝑋

– 𝑋 isadebrisobjectand𝑖 isangrapplingdesign

• LinearDecreasing:– 𝑚𝑎𝑠𝑠= 𝑋 = 1 − W@XYZ

W@XYW=>where𝑀𝑎𝑥 and𝑀𝑖𝑛aretheboundaryvalues

– Usedwithmass:masshaslineareffectonenergy

• ExponentialDecreasing:– 𝑎𝑙𝑡= 𝑋 ,𝑟𝑜𝑡= 𝑋 = 𝑒Y^Z

where1/𝜆 isthemeanvalue

– Usedwithaltitudeandrotation:velocityhassquaredeffectonenergy

28

4.De-tumble

• Debriswillceaserotationwhen:𝜔a=>@A = 0

𝛼 =𝜔a=>@A − 𝜔=>=?=@A

𝑡 ,6𝜏(𝑡) = 𝐼𝛼

6𝜏(𝑡) = 𝐼(𝜔a=>@A − 𝜔=>=?=@A)

6𝜏(𝑡) = −𝐼𝜔=>=?=@A

29

5.De-orbit

• Timetode-orbitdecreasesas𝐹C isincreases

𝐹C =𝜌𝑉-𝐶C𝐴

2• 𝜌 = 𝜌c𝑒YdA?=?efg/h– 𝜌increasesasaltitudedecreases

• 𝑉 =+ij,kcclm

nop

k+qjrMsdA?=?efg

– 𝑉 increasesasaltitudedecreases

30

Agenda


31

ValueHierarchy

32

Results[1]

33

ThrowNet Weight Value

Attributes

Performance 0.47 7.01545ObjectScores 0.86 8.1575Delta-VCost 0.14 0

Risk 0.19 2.128Safety 0.80 2.24Reliability 0.20 1.68

TRL 0.14 5PoliticalViability 0.20 2.154

Agreeability 0.86 1.65Verifiability 0.14 5.25

Utility 4.8312356

Harpoon Weight Likely

Attributes

Performance 0.47 8.3463ObjectScores 0.86 9.705Delta-VCost 0.14 0

Risk 0.19 1.52Safety 0.80 1.6Reliability 0.20 1.2

TRL 0.14 4PoliticalViability 0.20 0.735

Agreeability 0.86 0Verifiability 0.14 5.25

Utility 4.918349417

Results[2]

Design: Utility/Cost:

Throw Net 5.74

Harpoon 61.79

EDDE 0.45

34

Design: Utility/Cost:

Inflatables 0.55

Propulsion 4.66

EDDE 0.45

Infl.+Prop. 1.20

Results[3]

35

Design: Recommended: Cost:

Launch andRendezvous

Falcon9 $61.2M

Grapple Harpoon $7.96M

De-orbit Propulsion $40M

Total: $109.16M

Choosethehighestutilitypercostdesignfromeachstageandaggregateintoanoveralldebris

remediationsystem

Recommendations

• Somedesigns,includingEDDE,increaseinefficiencythelongertheyaredeployed

• FurtherresearchanddevelopmentisrequiredtobringelectromagneticdesignstoareasonableTRLforimplementation

36

Agenda


37

MarketSize

• 385satelliteownersoperatingover1200satellites

• Thegoalistocapture36%ofthismarketoverthenext20years

• Pessimisticestimateof13%

• Optimisticestimateof99% 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

CustomerBase

Pess.Customers Exp.Customers Opt.Customers

38

CompetitorsandRoadblocks

• Nocurrentcompetitors• BusinessmodelreliesonregulatoryacceptanceoftheharpoonADRdesign

• Changesinthepoliticalatmospherehaveseriousimpactonthefeasibilityofimplementation

• TheTragedyoftheCommonsdecreasesincentiveforanysinglepurchaser

39

BusinessModel

40

SatelliteOperators

SatelliteServicesUsers

SatelliteServices

$

SpaceDebris

SafeSpace$

PopulationReduction

Risk

LaunchProviders

ADRManufacturer

Launches$

$

$ ADRComponents

CostsNon-recurring:• Designimprovement,testing,andfinalization:$7,500,000

over2yearsRecurring:• Salaries:5employeesat$75,000=$375,000• Overheadmodifierof2.0:$750,000• ADRdesignpurchase:~$270,000fortheharpoonfrom

Astrium Stevenage• Launchcost:325kilogramdesignat$4109/kg=$1,335,425

perlaunch• Maneuveringfuelcost:$1716-17,160• TotalCost:$1,337,141-$1,352,585

41

SalesProfile

• Chargecostplus10%fee:$1,487,843• TotalMarketValue:385*$1,623,102=$572.8billion

• MarketShareValue:TMV*36%=$206.2billion• AnnualRevenue:MSV*2%=$4,124,302

42

ReturnonInvestment

• Pessimistic10yearROI:– $6,567,652,88%

• Expected10yearROI:– $36,324,522,484%

• Optimistic10yearROI:– $125,595,132,1675%

• StockMarketover10years(5%annually):– $12,216,709,163%

43

BreakevenPoint

44

BACKUPSLIDES

45

OurSolution

• Missioncontrolfordebrisremediationservices

• DeploymentofanADRdesignaccordingtospecificcustomerneeds

46

IdentifyHigh-RiskOrbits

IdentifyHigh-RiskDebris

RemediateDebris

SafeSpace

TrackTwoDiplomacy

47

DebrisRisk• Risk=ProbabilityxSeverity

– SpaceDebrisRisk=CollisionProbabilityxMass– Masshasaneffectondamagecausedandcreationofdebris

• Largenumberofsmallobjectsvssmallnumberoflargeobjects

48

Source:D.McKnight,2009

GapAnalysisWithoutremediation,thenumberofobjectsandcollisionswillcontinueto

climb,evenwithoutadditionallaunches.

49

Source:AAS,2010Source:J.C.Liou,2011

GapAnalysis• 90%PostMission

Disposal(PMD)doesnothaltgrowthofpopulation

• 90%PMDalongwith2high-riskobjectsremovedperyearslowsbutdoesnothaltgrowth

• 90%PMDcoupledwith5high-riskobjectsremovedperyearleadstoastableenvironment

50

Source:J.C.Liou,2011

Design and Evaluation of an Orbital Debris …catsr.vse.gmu.edu/SYST490/490_2015_SpaceDebris/OrbDebris_Final...Design and Evaluation of an Orbital Debris Remediation System 1 Collision

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