Derivatives Introduction to option pricing André Farber Solvay Business School University of Brussels
Dec 22, 2015
DerivativesIntroduction to option pricing
André Farber
Solvay Business School
University of Brussels
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |2April 19, 2023
Forward/Futures: Review
• Forward contract = portfolio
– asset (stock, bond, index)
– borrowing
• Value f = value of portfolio
f = S - PV(K)
Based on absence of arbitrage opportunities
• 4 inputs:
• Spot price (adjusted for “dividends” )
• Delivery price
• Maturity
• Interest rate
• Expected future price not required
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |3April 19, 2023
Options
• Standard options
– Call, put
– European, American
• Exotic options (non standard)
– More complex payoff (ex: Asian)
– Exercise opportunities (ex: Bermudian)
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |4April 19, 2023
Option Valuation Models: Key ingredients
• Model of the behavior of spot price
new variable: volatility
• Technique: create a synthetic option
• No arbitrage
• Value determination
– closed form solution (Black Merton Scholes)
– numerical technique
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |5April 19, 2023
Model of the behavior of spot price
• Geometric Brownian motion
– continuous time, continuous stock prices
• Binomial
– discrete time, discrete stock prices
– approximation of geometric Brownian motion
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |6April 19, 2023
Creation of synthetic option
• Geometric Brownian motion
– requires advanced calculus (Ito’s lemna)
• Binomial
– based on elementary algebra
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |7April 19, 2023
Options: the family tree
Black Merton Scholes (1973)
Analyticalmodels
Numericalmodels
Analyticalapproximation
models
Term structuremodels
B & SMerton
BinomialTrinomial
Finite differenceMonte Carlo
EuropeanOption
EuropeanAmerican
Option
AmericanOption
Options onBonds &
Interest Rates
AnalyticalNumerical
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |8April 19, 2023
Modelling stock price behaviour
• Consider a small time interval t: S = St+t - St
• 2 components of S:– drift : E(S) = S t [ = expected return (per year)]
– volatility:S/S = E(S/S) + random variable (rv)
• Expected value E(rv) = 0
• Variance proportional to t
– Var(rv) = ² t Standard deviation = t– rv = Normal (0, t)– = Normal (0,t)– = z z :
Normal (0,t)– = t : Normal(0,1)
z independent of past values (Markov process)
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |9April 19, 2023
Geometric Brownian motion illustrated
Geometric Brownian motion
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Drift Random shocks Stock price
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |10April 19, 2023
Geometric Brownian motion model
S/S = t + z S = S t + S z
• = S t + S t
• If t "small" (continuous model)
• dS = S dt + S dz
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |11April 19, 2023
Binomial representation of the geometric Brownian
• u, d and q are choosen to reproduce the drift and the volatility of the underlying process:
• Drift:
• Volatility:
• Cox, Ross, Rubinstein’s solution:
•
S
uS
dS
q
1-q
teu u
d1
du
deq
t
tSeSdqqSu )1(
tSSedSquqS t 2222222 )()1(
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |12April 19, 2023
Binomial process: Example
• dS = 0.15 S dt + 0.30 S dz ( = 15%, = 30%)
• Consider a binomial representation with t = 0.5
u = 1.2363, d = 0.8089, q = 0.6293
• Time 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5• 28,883• 23,362• 18,897 18,897• 15,285 15,285• 12,363 12,363 12,363• 10,000 10,000 10,000• 8,089 8,089 8,089• 6,543 6,543• 5,292 5,292• 4,280• 3,462
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |13April 19, 2023
Call Option Valuation:Single period model, no payout
• Time step = t• Riskless interest rate = r • Stock price evolution
• uS
• S
• dS
• No arbitrage: d<er t <u
• 1-period call option
• Cu = Max(0,uS-X)
• Cu =?
• Cd = Max(0,dS-X)
q
1-q
q
1-q
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |14April 19, 2023
Option valuation: Basic idea
• Basic idea underlying the analysis of derivative securities
• Can be decomposed into basic components possibility of creating a synthetic identical security
• by combining:
• - Underlying asset
• - Borrowing / lending
Value of derivative = value of components
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |15April 19, 2023
Synthetic call option
• Buy shares
• Borrow B at the interest rate r per period
• Choose and B to reproduce payoff of call option
u S - B ert = Cu
d S - B ert = Cd
Solution:
Call value C = S - B
dSuS
CC du
trdu
edu
uCdCB
)(
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |16April 19, 2023
Call value: Another interpretation
Call value C = S - B
• In this formula:
+ : long position (buy, invest)
- : short position (sell borrow)
B = S - C
Interpretation:
Buying shares and selling one call is equivalent to a riskless investment.
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |17April 19, 2023
Binomial valuation: Example
• Data
• S = 100
• Interest rate (cc) = 5%
• Volatility = 30%
• Strike price X = 100, • Maturity =1 month (t = 0.0833)
• u = 1.0905 d = 0.9170
• uS = 109.05 Cu = 9.05
• dS = 91.70 Cd = 0
= 0.5216
• B = 47.64
• Call value= 0.5216x100 - 47.64
• =4.53
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |18April 19, 2023
1-period binomial formula
• Cash value = S - B
• Substitue values for and B and simplify:
• C = [ pCu + (1-p)Cd ]/ ert where p = (ert - d)/(u-d)
• As 0< p<1, p can be interpreted as a probability
• p is the “risk-neutral probability”: the probability such that the expected return on any asset is equal to the riskless interest rate
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |19April 19, 2023
Risk neutral valuation
• There is no risk premium in the formula attitude toward risk of investors are irrelevant for valuing the option
Valuation can be achieved by assuming a risk neutral world
• In a risk neutral world : Expected return = risk free interest rate What are the probabilities of u and d in such a world ?
p u + (1 - p) d = ert
Solving for p:p = (ert - d)/(u-d)• Conclusion : in binomial pricing formula, p = probability of an upward
movement in a risk neutral world
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |20April 19, 2023
Mutiperiod extension: European option
u²SuS
S udS
dS
d²S
• Recursive method (European and American options)
Value option at maturityWork backward through the tree.
Apply 1-period binomial formula at each node
• Risk neutral discounting(European options only)
Value option at maturityDiscount expected future value
(risk neutral) at the riskfree interest rate
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |21April 19, 2023
Multiperiod valuation: Example
• Data
• S = 100
• Interest rate (cc) = 5%
• Volatility = 30%
• European call option:
• Strike price X = 100,
• Maturity =2 months
• Binomial model: 2 steps
• Time step t = 0.0833
• u = 1.0905 d = 0.9170
• p = 0.5024
0 1 2 Risk neutral probability118.91 p²= 18.91 0.2524
109.05 9.46
100.00 100.00 2p(1-p)= 4.73 0.00 0.5000
91.70 0.00
84.10 (1-p)²= 0.00 0.2476
Risk neutral expected value = 4.77Call value = 4.77 e-.05(.1667) = 4.73
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |22April 19, 2023
From binomial to Black Scholes
• Consider:
• European option
• on non dividend paying stock
• constant volatility
• constant interest rate
• Limiting case of binomial model as t0
Stock price
Timet T
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |23April 19, 2023
Convergence of Binomial Model
Convergence of Binomial Model
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Derivatives 07 Pricing options |24April 19, 2023
Black Scholes formula
• European call option:
• C = S N(d1) - K e-r(T-t) N(d2)
• N(x) = cumulative probability distribution function for a standardized normal variable
• European put option:
• P= K e-r(T-t) N(-d2) - S N(-d1)
• or use Put-Call Parity
tTtT
KeS
dtTr
5.0)ln( )(
1
tTdd 12
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |25April 19, 2023
Black Scholes: Example
• Stock price S = 100
• Exercise price = 100 (at the money option)
• Maturity = 1 year (T-t = 1)
• Interest rate (continuous) = 5%
• Volatility = 0.15
• Reminder: N(-x) = 1 - N(x)
• d1 = 0.4083
• d2 = 0.4083 - 0.151= 0.2583
• N(d1) = 0.6585 N(d2) = 0.6019
• European call : • 100 0.6585 - 100 0.95123 0.6019 =
8.60
• European put : • 100 0.95123 (1-0.6019)
• - 100 (1-0.6585) = 3.72
0.115.05.00.115.0
)100
100ln( 05.0
1 ed
Derivatives 07 Pricing options |26April 19, 2023
Black Scholes differential equation: Assumptions
• S follows a geometric Brownian motion:dS = µS dt + S dz
• Volatility constant
• No dividend payment (until maturity of option)
• Continuous market
• Perfect capital markets
• Short sales possible
• No transaction costs, no taxes
• Constant interest rate