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Dennis WintersChief, Office of Economic Advisors
Department of Workforce DevelopmentNovember 8, 2013
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Wisconsin Economics Association
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Average Real GDP Growth First 9 Quarters of Recovery
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0Pe
rcent
2
ECONOMIC RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES
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Average Real GDP Growth First 9 Quarters of Recovery
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0Pe
rcent
9.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1949 1954 1958 1960 1970 1975 1980 1982 1991 2001 2009
Real GDP Growth Sixteen Quarters into Recovery
33
ECONOMIC RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES
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JOBS RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES
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GDP = C + I + G + (I-M)
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RECESSION COMPARISONSLAGGING ACROSS ALL INDICATORS
19.421.4
26.7 27.5
38.3
14.1
5.3 6.3
0.5
15.1
3.1
-1.7-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
GDP Consumption Investment Exports Imports Government
Percent change
Average '60 - '012007 Recession
Source: William Testa, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
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It is difficult to increase consumptionwhen you:
1. have stagnant income,2. are losing wealth,3. paying down debt,4. increasing savings,5. and are paying more for food and gas.
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REAL ESTATE EQUITYGETTING A NICE REBOUND
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SECURITIES’ APPRECIATIONIS GETTING US BACK OVER THE HUMP
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MANAGING RISK WHERE IS THE INCENTIVE TO EXPAND
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135.0
140.0
145.0
150.0
155.0
160.0
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Actual
100 / Mo.
200 / Mo.
300 / Mo.
Thousands5.5%
6.5%
7.5%
8.5%
9.5%Q1 ‘15
Q1 ‘17
Unemployment rates assume a participation rate of 63.5%
JOBS GROWTH SCENARIOSCONTRAINTS ON ECONOMY
Source: William Testa, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
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WISCONSIN JOBS ARE SHOWING A STEADY CLIMB
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WISCONSIN MANUFACTURING JOBS ARE ALSO ON THE UPTICK
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WISCONSIN JOBS RECOVERYVERSUS PREVIOUS CYCLES
y = 0.0009x - 0.0822
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Perc
ent
Job
Lose
s S
ince
Rec
essi
on D
ecla
rati
on
Number of Months Since Recession Declaration
Wisconsin: QCEW Total Employment Change in the Last Three Recessions(QCEW data seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census X12 program)
1990s recession2001 recession2007-2009 recession2010-Linear (2010-)
Estimated breach: July 2015
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AGE COHORTSTREATED DIFFERENTLY
Source: OEA, BLS
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Annual Average Unemployment Rate by Age - Wisconsin Total, 16+ Total, 16 to 19 yearsTotal, 20 to 24 years Total, 25 to 34 yearsTotal, 35 to 44 years Total, 45 to 54 yearsTotal, 55 to 64 years Total, 65 years and over
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EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT STEADIER WORK
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NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONSHAVE RECOVERED VALUE
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OVERALL NON-CORPORATE PRIVATEBALANCE SHEET IMPROVING
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FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBTON THE OTHER HAND
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SWAPPING SECURITIES FOR CASH
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21Source: Federal Reserve Board, Data Download Program
-$500
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
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Reserves of Depository Institutions(billions of dollars)
Required Reserves
Total reserves
EXTENDING CREDITBANKS ARE RETICENT TO LEND FUNDS
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STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENTSHAVE LARGELY RECOVERED
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STATE AND LOCAL SPENDING ON A NEW TRAJECTORY
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He said,
She said.
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HE SAID,HEY BABE, LOOK THE ECONOMY IS GROWING NICELY
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SHE SAID,WE STILL HAVE A WAYS TO GO, DEAR
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HE SAIDLOOK HONEY, HOUSING MARKET IS UP NICELY
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SHE SAIDSWEETHEART, WE’RE NEVER GETTING BACK THERE
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HE SAID,SUGAR, JOBS ARE CLIMBING
thou
sand
s
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SHE SAID,DARLING, DON’T PISS OFF YOUR BOSS
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HE SAID, LOVE, THEY’RE JACKING UP WAGES EVERYWHERE
• The minimum wage will increase in 10 states on January 1, 2013.
• Employers to be more generous with pay raises next year, CNNMoney.
• An improving job market is boosting wages, Herald and News.
• SHRM consensus is for an average budget increase of 3 percent.
• Hay Group says 3 percent salary increases in 2013.
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SHE SAID, JIM, GET A GRIP
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HE SAID, DREAMBOAT, WE’RE GONNA BE RICH
INCOME GROWTH(Q1:2010 – Q3:2012)
Source: BEA, OEA
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SHE SAID,WILL YOU WAKE UP AND SMELL THE COFFEE
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Who is in
demand?
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*Job Openings includes both turnover and new jobs that are created.
MOST JOB OPENINGSBY OCCUPATION
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MOST JOB OPENINGSON JOB CENTER OF WISCONSIN
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MOST OFTEN HEARD POSITION CHALLENGESCHARACTERISTICS
OccupationAnnual % Growth
Growth Openings
Replacement Openings
Total Openings
Typical Entry Education
Median Wage
Heavy truck drivers 1.90 9,490 9,040 18,530 H.S. diploma $38,300
Welders 1.50 1,840 3,010 4,850 H.S. diploma $37,980
Customer service representatives
1.50 7,760 14,180 21,940 H.S. diploma $31,430
CNC machine operators 2.20 1,310 1,020 2,330 H.S. diploma $35,860
Maintenance workers, machinery
0.70 180 440 620 H.S. diploma $39,460
CNC machine operators 2.20 1,310 1,020 2,330 H.S. diploma $35,860
Nursing aides 1.50 6,300 4,900 11,200 Postsecondary $25,020
Registered nurses 2.20 13,780 10,450 24,230 Associate’s
degree$62,860
Mechanical engineers 0.70 470 2,010 2,480 Bachelor’s
degree$68,340
Food preparation and serving workers
2.30 15,360 17,140 32,500 < high school $17,910
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WHAT TRAINING TO PURSUEFIVE MAKE ALL THREE LISTS
Make all three lists Total OpeningsTypical Entry
EducationMedian Wage
Food preparation 32,500 < high school $17,910
Customer service 21,940 H.S. diploma $31,430
Registered nurses 24,230 AD/BS $62,860
Heavy truck drivers 18,530 H.S. diploma $38,300
Health care aides 11,200 Postsecondary $25,020
Make two lists
Welders 4,850 H.S. diploma $37,980
Material Movers 38,900 H.S. diploma $23,590
Retail sales 69,030 < high school $20,570
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Questions ?
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Dennis Winters
Phone: 608-267-3262
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov
OEA website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea
CONTACT INFORMATION