Demography and the crisis 26 September 2009 EMCEF Collective Bargaining College.

EMCEF Collective Bargaining CollegeDemography and the

crisis

26 September 2009

EMCEF Collective Bargaining College

2

PRESSURE ON PUBLIC BUDGETS

26 September 2009


More old guysEU 15

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20250

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Men <55Women <55Men 55-65Women 55-65Men 65+Women 65+


Retirement age women

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IRL SE P FIN DK UK D NL SP I AUT F GR B LUX48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

Retirement age Women

Official

Real


Retirement age men

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IRL UK DK SE P FIN GR NL D SP AUT I F B LUX52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

OfficialReal


Public deficits% of GDP, OECD

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

Euro-zoneJapanUSA

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7

PROBLEMS FOR THE ENTERPRISES

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2004

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2005

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2006

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2007

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60 – 65 Lj. = 25 = 0,1%

2008

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!

2009

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2010

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2011

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2012

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2013

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2014

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2015

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2016

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+ 10 % seit 2009 !

2017

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2018

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2019

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60 – 65 Lj. = 3.902 = 15,5 %

Et virksomhedseksempel2020

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25

OVER TO CHRISTIAN

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26

IndustriegewerkschaftBergbau-Chemie-Energie

Demographics And Working Life Trade Union Approaches To The Demographic Change


27

Proportion of people over 60 - year old, in % of total population

Germany France Spain Netherlands USA Japan

2000 23,2 20,5 21,2 18,2 16,1 23,3

2025 32,1 28,4 30,3 28,5 23,6 35,5

2050 34,5 32,3 40,9 30,7 25,5 42,4

Daten aus: ZEIT Nr.42/9.10.03, S.23, Quelle: World Population Prospects/ UN


28

Share of people over 60 years - by Region

Scenario II (medium fertility); in %

1950 2000 2050

Afrika 5,3 5,1 10,2

Asia 6,8 8,8 22,6

Europe 12,1 20,3 36,6

Latinamerica 5,9 8,0 22,5

Northamerica 12,4 16,2 27,2

Ozeania 11,2 13,4 23,3

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Quelle: Fraunhofer Institut IAO

How can we ensure success in the future?

Aging workforce in the company

Workforceover 50

Workforceunder 30


30

Work ability index (WAI)

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

15 25 35 45 55 65

Carrot project 1998, N=729

49

43

36

27

7

excellent

good

mediocre

low

Following : Ilmarinen (2004)

Age [Years]

AFI

Working Ability


31

Demographic change means :

Rising average age Shortage of young people Increasing exposure of workers Declining employability and performance Rising costs due to sickness absence Rising disability and poor financial security of those

affecteddeclining motivation

If nothing is done!


32

How can we adress demographic change?

Promote employment of older Giving more opportunities for people without qualified

education Qualification of unskilled Increase employment rate of women

Boost „Family and Work“Healthy, age-appropriate working conditions (ratio

prevention)Health promotion (prevention behavior)

Counseling, Nutrition, Exercise, Behavior


33

How can we adress demographic change?

Flexible Working LifeLong-term accounts Early retirement, partial retirement Sabbaticals,

Financial security - by occupational pension schemes

34


For the chemical industry in Germany Approx. 550.000 Eployees Demographic Analysis Action and Measures

Work- and Working-Time organization Workplace Health Promotion Qualification, Training of Younger People, Knowledge-

Transfer Family And Work

Demography Operating Fund from 1 January 2010 Long-term Accounts Early And Partial Retirement Disability Insurance Chemicals (BUC) Extension/Upgrade Collective pension

Support From The Parties Of Collectiv Agreements Catch-Up Rules for Collective Agreements

Working Life And Demography

35


Christian Jungvogel IG BCE www.igbce.de

Discussion


36

KEY PROBLEMS

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26 September 2009

Crisis or demography?

Do we aim at political or bargaining solutions?

Can we continue pre retirement policies?

Should we accept higher retirement age?

If we want to ensure entry of young people in enterprises, should we abandon the “Last in first out” principle?


38

IMPORTANT PRINCIPLES EMCEF Policy

26 September 2009


Pension systems

Solidarity in pensions

Maintain and defend statutory pension schemes

Protect pension savings

Supplemental pension systemsSolidarity – compulsory systemIndependent from companiesInfluence for unions on investments

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Pre-retirement

An individual choice

Re-occupation of jobs

No serious loss in pensions

Consideration for special groups

Real possibilities for those who choose to work longer

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Life long agreements

Recruitment policies

Possibilities for age appropriate jobs for older workers

Right for further training for all

Access to training for older workers

Access to advice on health questions

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42

KEY PROBLEMS

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26 September 2009

How to defend workers pension rights against erosion and against prolonged working lives ?

How to ensure the improvements to make pension life viable ?

How to ensure a suitable working conditions for older workers ?

How to ensure the supply of workforce for enterprises in our sector ?


26 September 2009

Demografic analysis:How does the staff composition develop tomorrow?

Example from German chemical enterprise

Based on these assumptions:Point of departure 2004: 25.354 employeesUntil 2009 650 employees are pre-pensioned each yearEvery year 300 apprentices are hired after their educationEach year 50 newly trained graduates are hiredNo other movements in and out of the enterprise taken into account

2 Marts 2009Fellesforbundet45

Demography and the crisis 26 September 2009 EMCEF Collective Bargaining College.

Documents

ability slide

demographic change slide

energie quelle

energie demographics

retirement age women

retirement age men

age years afi

average age shortage