Demographic Update OSCPA Real Estate Conference, Portland, OR June 14, 2013 Charles Rynerson Census State Data Center Coordinator Population Research Center College of Urban and Public
Demographic Update OSCPA Real Estate Conference, Portland, OR June 14, 2013
Feb 08, 2016
Demographic Update OSCPA Real Estate Conference, Portland, OR June 14, 2013. Charles Rynerson Census State Data Center Coordinator Population Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs. April 1, 2010 U.S. Resident Population: 308,745,538. Multigenerational Households. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Demographic UpdateOSCPA Real Estate Conference, Portland, ORJune 14, 2013
Charles RynersonCensus State Data Center CoordinatorPopulation Research CenterCollege of Urban and Public Affairs
April 1, 2010 U.S. Resident Population: 308,745,538
282310
341
374
406
439
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Popu
latio
n (M
illio
ns)
Year (July 1)
U.S. Population Projection (population in millions)(Source: Census Bureau, 2008)
6.0
8.7
-5.2
2.6
4.6
8.0
-5.0
1.6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Change Births Deaths Net International Migration
Mill
ions
Components of U.S. Population Change, 2010 to 2012(population change in millions)
2008 Census Bureau Projections
Latest Census Bureau Estimates
282310
341
374
406
439
282309
334358
380400
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Popu
latio
n (M
illio
ns)
Year (July 1)
U.S. Population Projection (population in millions)(Source: Census Bureau, 2008 and 2012)
2008 Forecast
2012 Forecast
1.8
3.8
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1960-65 1965-70 1970-75 1975-80 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10
Tota
l Pop
ulati
on (m
illio
ns)
Five
Yea
r Gro
wth
Period (July 1 PRC Estimates)
Oregon Population Growth, 1960 to 2010
Five Year Growth
Total Population
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1960-65 1965-70 1970-75 1975-80 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10
5 Ye
ar G
row
th
Period (July 1 PRC Estimates)
Components of Oregon Population Growth, 1960 to 2010
Net Migration
Natural Increase
26,110
3,883,735
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Tota
l Pop
ulati
on (m
illio
ns)
Annu
al G
row
th
Year Ending (July 1 PRC Estimates)
Oregon Population Growth, 2000 to 2012
Annual Growth
Total Population
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Annu
al G
row
th
Year Ending (July 1 PRC Estimates)
Components of Oregon Population Growth, 2000 to 2012
Net Migration
Natural Increase
-50,000
-30,000
-10,000
10,000
30,000
50,000
70,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Chan
ge in
Non
farm
Em
ploy
men
t
Annu
al G
row
th d
ue to
Net
Mig
ratio
n
Year Ending (July 1 PRC Estimates)
Oregon Net Migration and Employment, 2000 to 2012
Net Migration (year ending in July)
Job Loss
Change in Nonfarm Employment (July-June average)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
< 5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Tota
l Pop
ulati
on
Age Group in 2010
Population by Age GroupState of Oregon, 2010
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
< 5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Tota
l Pop
ulati
on
Age Group in 2010
Population by Race/Ethnicity and AgeState of Oregon, 2010
all other
non-Hispanic White
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
3.00
3.20
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Pers
ons p
er H
ouse
hold
Persons per Household, 1960-2010
State of OregonCity of Portland City of EugeneCity of Salem
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Num
ber
of H
ouse
hold
sHouseholds by Type
State of Oregon
Married with Children
Other Family Households
Living Alone
Other Nonfamily Households
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Perc
ent o
f Hou
seho
lds
Husband-Wife Families With Children under 18as a Share of all Households, 1960-2010
State of Oregon
City of Portland
City of Eugene
City of Salem
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Perc
ent o
f Hou
seho
lds
Ow
ner-
Occ
upie
dHomeownership, 1960-2010
State of Oregon City of Portland City of Eugene City of Salem
56.0%
58.0%
60.0%
62.0%
64.0%
66.0%
68.0%
70.0%
72.0%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Perc
ent o
f Hou
seho
lds
Ow
ner-
Occ
upie
dHomeownership, 1960-2010
State of Oregon U.S.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010*
Shar
e of
Wor
kers
Age
16+
Wor
king
at H
ome
Share Working at Home, 1960-2010
State of OregonCity of PortlandCity of EugeneCity of Salem
*2008-2010 3 year American Community Survey Estimates
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010*
Num
ber o
f Wor
kers
Workers Age 16+ Working at Home, 1960-2010, State of Oregon
*2008-2010 3 year American Community Survey Estimates
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/03/15/the-boomerang-generation/
Multigenerational Households
1 person16%
2 persons31%
3+ persons53%
Share of Households by Size, 1960State of Oregon
1 person19%
2 persons33%
3+ persons48%
Share of Households by Size, 1970State of Oregon
1 person23%
2 persons35%
3+ persons42%
Share of Households by Size, 1980State of Oregon
1 person25%
2 persons36%
3+ persons39%
Share of Households by Size, 1990State of Oregon
1 person26%
2 persons36%
3+ persons38%
Share of Households by Size, 2000State of Oregon
1 person27%
2 persons36%
3+ persons37%
Share of Households by Size, 2010State of Oregon
1 person28%
2+ persons72%
Share of Households by Size, 2020State of Oregon
88,197 38,695
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2000-2007 2007-2011
Chan
ge in
Num
ber o
f Hou
seho
lds
Portland Metro Area Household Growth, 2000 to 2011
all households
owner-occupied
renter-occupied
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census Summary File 1; 2007 and 2011 American Community Survey 1-year estimates.I-beam lines indicate margins of sampling error at the 90% confidence level.
Portland State University,Population Research Center
www.pdx.edu/prc
73,868 -12,69314,329 51,388
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2000-2007 2007-2011
Chan
ge in
Num
ber o
f Hou
seho
lds
Portland Metro Area Household Growth by Owner/Renter, 2000 to 2011
all households
owner-occupied
renter-occupied
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census Summary File 1; 2007 and 2011 American Community Survey 1-year estimates.I-beam lines indicate margins of sampling error at the 90% confidence level.
Portland State University,Population Research Center
www.pdx.edu/prc
Central City Trends
24,417
24,062
23,190
22,154
21,63921,420
21,231
21,573
22,053
22,63022,868
23,346
23,751
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
PPS Elementary (K-5th) Enrollment, 2000-01 to 2012-13
0.60
0.62
0.64
0.66
0.68
0.70
0.72
0.74
0.76
0.78
Ratio
of K
inde
rgar
ten
to B
irths
School Year
Ratio of PPS Kindergarten Enrollment to Birth Cohorts
Fall 2012 K ratio toSep '06 - Aug '07 PPS Births
Fall 1995 K ratio toSep '89 - Aug '90 PPS Births
Fall 2006 K ratio toSep 2000 - Aug '01 PPS Births
5796
4631
3771
5503
4752
4073
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1993-94 Births Fall 1999 Age 5 Fall 1999 Kindergarten
2003-04 Births Fall 2009 Age 5 Fall 2009 Kindergarten
Estimated Births, Population Age 5, and Historic Kindergarten EnrollmentPortland Public Schools
20.1% net out-migration birth to age 5
13.6% net out-migration birth to age 5
81.4% capture rate
85.7% capture rate
36%
63%
34%
44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Shar
e of
All
Birt
hs
Calendar Year
Share of All Births to Women Age 30 and older, 1990-2010Portland Public Schools and Suburbs*
PPS
Suburbs
*"Suburbs" depicted in this chart include Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington counties outside of Portland Public Schools boundary.
28.5% 29.3%34.2%
49.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
U.S.A. Oregon Portland MSA Portland Public Schools
Percent Age 25+ With a Bachelor's Degree or Higher, 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey 1-year estimates.I-beam lines indicate margins of sampling error at the 90% confidence level.
Portland State University,Population Research Center
www.pdx.edu/prc
10.6% 10.9%12.8%
20.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
U.S.A. Oregon Portland MSA Portland Public Schools
Percent Age 25+ With a Graduate or Professional Degree, 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey 1-year estimates.I-beam lines indicate margins of sampling error at the 90% confidence level.
Portland State University,Population Research Center
www.pdx.edu/prc
The Ramona Apartments: 138 Family-Friendly Units in the Pearl
3121 ÷
3339 SE Division: 37 Studios and One BRs; no Parking
Resources for Data Users
• census.gov - American FactFinder
• pdx.edu/prc - Oregon Census State
Data Center
• portlandpulse.org
Demographic UpdateOSCPA Real Estate Conference, Portland, ORJune 14, 2013
Charles RynersonCensus State Data Center CoordinatorPopulation Research CenterCollege of Urban and Public Affairs
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