Demographic Projections Jocelyn Freilinger 1 |PROJECTIONS Predicting the future is a tricky business. It is both an art and a science. Numerous judgment calls must be made in formulating any number of algorithms that demogra- phers might use to estimate population growth. Any number of variables can behave in unpredicable ways: migration, the impacts of emergent diseases and advances in medical technology, and natural disasters can all throw our predictions into disarray. Still, generating potential scenarios is still a useful exercise for those who need to an- ticipate and plan for the changes that our society goes through. There is no doubt that the human population is growing to unprecedented numbers. In 2006, demographers estimate that the global population will reach 6.5 billion and that the U.S. population will reach 300 million. The U.S. Census Bureau published the graphic below which illustrates what this meant for the year 2002.
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Demographic ProjectionsJocelyn Freilinger
1 |Projections
Predicting the future is a tricky business. It is both an art and a science. Numerous judgment calls must be made in formulating any number of algorithms that demogra-phers might use to estimate population growth. Any number of variables can behave in unpredicable ways: migration, the impacts of emergent diseases and advances in medical technology, and natural disasters can all throw our predictions into disarray.
Still, generating potential scenarios is still a useful exercise for those who need to an-ticipate and plan for the changes that our society goes through.
There is no doubt that the human population is growing to unprecedented numbers. In 2006, demographers estimate that the global population will reach 6.5 billion and that the U.S. population will reach 300 million. The U.S. Census Bureau published the graphic below which illustrates what this meant for the year 2002.
2 | Projections
The table above shows population projections from several different sources. We can observe several notable trends in these numbers. First, that the growth rate of the U.S. will be plateauing relative to the growth rate of other countries. At the regional level, we expect Washington State to grow by as much as 1 to 2.5 million; up to half a million of this growth will be in King County.
The City of Seattle’s Future Land Use Map (opposite) reflects a growth plan that theo-retically will accommodate 40-60 years of growth. The current growth strategy encour-ages densification of neighborhood business centers as a strategy to decentralize growth in a somewhat organized way.
Population by year
Country or area 1950 2005 2015 2025 2050
(thousands)
World1 2 519 470 6 464 750 7 219 431 7 905 239 9 075 903
World2 7 834 028 9 078 851
USA1 157 813 298 213 325 723 350 103 394 976
USA2 349 666 420 081
(ones)
WA State low3 5,935,479 6,460,127 6,925,750
WA State high3 6,621,080 7,867,806 9,215,093
King County low3 1,721,585 1,813,290 1,894,659
King County high3 1,851,128 2,080,093 2,318,368
1UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs2US Census Bureau3Washington State Office of Financial Management
City nametag line (arial 18pt)
3| Projections
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The future land use map is intended to illustrate the general location and distributionof the various categories of land uses anticipated by the Comprehensive Plan policiesover the life of this plan. It is not intended to provide the basis for rezones and otherlegislative and quasi-judicial decisions, for which the decision makers must look to theComprehensive Plan policies and various implementing regulations.
0 0.5 1 1.5 20.25
Miles
4
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Hub / Residential Urban Village
Manufacturing / Industrial Center
City-Owned Open Space
Single Family Residential Areas
Multi-Family Residential Areas
Commercial / Mixed Use Areas
Downtown Areas
Industrial Areas
Major Institutions
U
H/R
City of SeattleComprehensive Plan
Future Land Use Map
4 | Projections
references
Recent Census and Projection info:
Global/Federal sources
World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision http://www.un.org/popin/data.htmlGlobal Population Profile: 2002 http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/wp02.html (global trends)(2004)
State and Local
http://www2.cityofseattle.net/GIS_Map/sub_interim.asp?topic=’Demographics’Washington State County Population Projections http://www.ofm.wa.gov/pop/gma/Future Land Use Map. http://www.ci.seattle.wa.us/dpd/stellent/groups/pan/@pan/@plan/@proj/documents/Web_Informational/cos_004501.pdf
General Reference
Academic
http://faculty.washington.edu/~krumme/350/population.html#clippingshttp://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
Other
O’Neill, et al. “A Guide to Global Population Projections.” Demographic Research. v. 4, article 8, 13 June 2001.http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/vol4/8/4-8.pdf
Roberts, Sam. “Come October, Baby Will Make 300 Million or So.” The New York Times. 13 January 2006.
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