Demographic Change Bridget Burdett, Dr William Cochrane and Dr Mathew Roskruge
Demographic ChangeBridget Burdett, Dr William Cochrane and Dr Mathew Roskruge
2 Introduction This presentation is broken up into several
parts; Firstly we will look at the broad projected trends
in New Zealand's demography in the near to medium term,
Secondly will then turn to considering projected changes in the Waikato Region.
Lastly I will make some general comments and respond to any questions.
3The Big Picture“21st Century will oversee the slowing and ending of population growth”
Marsden (2014-16) - The subnational mechanisms of the ending of population growth – towards a theory of depopulation: Tai Timu Tangata; Taihoa e?Jackson, Maré, Cameron, Cochrane, Brabyn, Pool
4New Zealand Projected Population 2014-2068
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
2052
2054
2056
2058
2060
2062
2064
2066
2068
4000000
4500000
5000000
5500000
6000000
6500000
7000000
7500000
5th 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th 95th
Year
Popu
latio
n
National population projections, 2014(base)-2068, Statistics New Zealand
Projected Age Structure, 2014 & 20685
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
85 plus
5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00
Female Male
Per cent of Population
Age
Grou
p
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
85 plus
5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00
Female Male
Per cent of Population
Age
Grou
p
2014 2068
Share of population85 plus ≈ +5 pp65 plus ≈ +13 pp15-64 ≈ -9 pp0-14 ≈ -5 pp0-4 ≈ -2 pp
National population projections, 2014(base)-2068, Statistics New Zealand
Percentage Change85 plus ≈ 400 %65 plus ≈ 160 %15-64 ≈ 19 %0-14 ≈ 6 %0-4 ≈ 5 %
6 Fertility (Children per prime aged women 15-44 years)
1960
1961
1962
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Australia New Zealand Japan China United Kingdom United States
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e
World Bank Health Nutrition and Population Statistics: Population estimates and projections
Replacement rate ≈ 2.1
7 Life Expectancy
1960
1962
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Australia New Zealand Japan China United Kingdom United States
Life
exp
ecta
ncy
(yea
rs)
World Bank Health Nutrition and Population Statistics: Population estimates and projections
8 Urbanisation
1960
1962
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Australia New Zealand Japan China United Kingdom United States
Year
Perc
ent
of P
opul
atio
n
9 Slowing/ending of growth already with us2013 Census Usually Resident Population• North Island 32% CAUs declined (up
from 25% 2001-06)• South Island 36% CAUs declined (up
from 27% 2001-06)• Auckland accounted for 52% of
growth 2006-13• Auckland plus 11 TAs accounted for
75% of growth• Remaining 25% growth spread very
thinly across 35 TAs (20 declined)Jackson, Cameron and Cochrane, 2013
10
• For New Zealand all growth (2013 – 2031) in 56 (84%) Territorial Authority Areas is projected to be at 65+ years; all are projected to see overall decline at 0-64 years:
• Only 11 TAs escape this scenario
• Hamilton is one• Growth will end in most TAs
Ageing-driven growth
Jackson, Cameron and Cochrane, 2013
11Greater Hamilton
12
Waikato Commute 1991-2013 & Territorial Authority Boundaries
2013 Territorial Authority Boundary
1991 2006 2013
13 Historic Growth in New Zealand Cities
1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 20060
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
Auckland Christchurch WellingtonHamilton Dunedin Tauranga
Year
Popu
lati
on
Arthur Grimes and Nicholas Tarrant. 2013. "A New Zealand Urban Population Database", Motu Working Paper WP 13-07, Wellington: Motu, www.motu.org.nz.
14The Population of Selected Waikato Towns 1926-2006
1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 20060
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Cambridge Huntly MorrinsvilleYear
Popu
latio
n
15Waikato Region Projection 2013-2063
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
2061
2063
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
PopulationTotal Working Age 65 plus 0-14 years
Years
Popu
lati
on
Cameron and Cochrane, 2015
16Experience of Population Change is Very Varied, Relative growth 2013=1000
Cameron and Cochrane, 2015
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
TCDC Hauraki Waikato MPDC HamiltonWaipa Otorohanga Waitomo SWDC Taupo
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84
85+
10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
Female Male
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84
85+
10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
Female Male
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84
85+
10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
Female Male
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84
85+
10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
Female Male
Aging Varies Widely Across Region17 2013 2063
Cameron and Cochrane, 2015
Ham
ilton
TCDC
Change in Pop at 15-64 ≈ - 21%
Change in Pop15-64 ≈ - 48%
18Projected Changes in Household Numbers 2013-2063
20132016201920222025202820312034203720402043204620492052205520582061
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Family One-person Other multi-person
20132016201920222025202820312034203720402043204620492052205520582061
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Family One-person Other multi-person
20132016201920222025202820312034203720402043204620492052205520582061
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Family One-person Other multi-person
20132016201920222025202820312034203720402043204620492052205520582061
0
1000020000
300004000050000600007000080000
Family One-person Other multi-person
20132016201920222025202820312034203720402043204620492052205520582061
0
500010000
150002000025000300003500040000
Family One-person Other multi-person
20132016201920222025202820312034203720402043204620492052205520582061
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Family One-person Other multi-person Relative Change 2013-2063
Hamilton Waikato WaipaNu
mbe
r of H
ouse
hold
s20
13 =
100
0
19Projected Changes in Family Numbers 2013-2063
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
2043
2046
2049
2052
2055
2058
2061
05000
10000150002000025000300003500040000
Couple without children Two-parentOne-parent
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
2043
2046
2049
2052
2055
2058
2061
02000400060008000
100001200014000160001800020000
Couple without children Two-parentOne-parent
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
2043
2046
2049
2052
2055
2058
2061
02000400060008000
10000120001400016000
Couple without children Two-parentOne-parent
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
2043
2046
2049
2052
2055
2058
2061
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Couple without children Two-parentOne-parent
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
2043
2046
2049
2052
2055
2058
2061
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Couple without children Two-parentOne-parent
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
2043
2046
2049
2052
2055
2058
2061
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Couple without children Two-parentOne-parent
Relative Change 2013-2063
Hamilton Waikato Waipa
Num
ber o
f Fam
ilies
2013
= 1
000
20 Acknowledgement
We would like to acknowledge Professor Natalie Jackson for her input, both direct and indirect, into this presentation.
The role of transportfor thriving communities
Bridget BurdettSenior Transportation Researcher, TDG
PhD student, University of Waikato
Outline
1) How transport is delivered in New Zealand
2) What about people who don’t drive?
3) Who is working on these issues
4) Discussion
How transport is delivered in New Zealand
Example: Catching the bus to town
Example: Getting to hospital from Tairua
What about people who don’t drive?
Who is working on these issues?
Burdett, B.R.D. (2014) Measuring Accessible Journeys: A tool to enable participation. Municipal Engineer, United Kingdom: In Press
Thank You