DEMIDOVA OLGA [email protected]

MODELING OF PUBLIC TRUST IN BASIC SOCIAL AND POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS:

A COMPARATIVE ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

DEMIDOVA [email protected]

15th Annual Conference of the International Society for New Institutional Economics , Stanford University, 17 June 2011

ISNIE 2011, Stanford

The problem

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To what degree does trust in basic social and political institutions depend on the individual characteristics of citizens of different countries?

World Value Survey, 5th Wave, 2007-2008, 46 countries

Three types of models have been estimated. • The first model is based on the assumption of a generalized relationship for all

countries.• The second takes into account the heterogeneity of countries (using an

introduction of the country-level variables).• The third applies a preliminary subdivision of countries into five clusters.

Data

Models

ISNIE 2011, Stanford

Dependent variables

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Dependent variables How much confidence do you have in… Answers

Government The armed forces 1 - A great deal; 2 – Quite a lot;

3 – Not very much; 4 – Not at all

Parliament Police

Armed_forces Government

Police Parliament

Political_parties Political parties

Justice The judicial system,

Press The press

Television Television

ISNIE 2011, Stanford

Average level of confidence

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0 1 2 3 4

serbiazambiaburkina fasounited statesgreat britainukraineturkeytrinidad and tobagothailandswitzerlandswedenspainsouth africasloveniaviet namrussian federationromaniapolandperunorwaynetherlandsmoroccomoldovamexicomalimalaysiasouth koreajapanitalyiranindonesiaindiaghanagermanygeorgiafrancefinlandethiopiacyprustaiwanchinachilecanadabulgariabrazilaustralia

mean of armed_forces mean of policemean of government mean of parliamentmean of political_parties mean of justicemean of press mean of television

Law enforcement institutions are the most popular among the residents of most countries

Law enforcement institutions are the

most popular among the residents of most

countries

Citizens trust the political parties and

parliament least of all

ISNIE 2011, Stanford

Results of ordered logit models estimation

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Independent variables

Armed Forces

Police Govern-ment

Parlia-ment

Political Parties

Justice Press TV

Sex (1-M, 2-F) (+) (-) (+) (+) (-) (+)

Age (-) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+)

Educmid (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+)

Educhigh (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+)

Income (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-)

Marital (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-)

Unemployed (+) (+) (+) (+) (+)

Supervisor(?) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+)

ISNIE 2011, Stanford

Results of mixed logit models estimation

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Variables Armed Forces

Police Gov Parlia-ment

PoliticalParties

Justice Press TV

Sex                Age    Educmid                 Educhig             Income  

Marital          

Unempl                            

Supervis                          

GDP                      CPI                        

ISNIE 2011, Stanford

Cluster Analysis

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2030

40L2

squa

red

diss

imila

rity

mea

sure

1 15 44 5 11 19 13 26 4 17 18 25 46 35 36 40 20 8 10 42 27 38 37 2 23 31 3 30 6 12 29 9 32 33 41 39 24 43 28 7 14 34 21 22 16 45

Dendrogram for wardslnk cluster analysis

ISNIE 2011, Stanford

First Cluster

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0 1 2 3

viet nam

south africa

mali

malaysia

india

ghana

china

mean of armed_forces mean of policemean of government mean of parliamentmean of political_parties mean of justicemean of press mean of television

Countries belonging to the first cluster have the highest level of

confidence

The highest level of confidence is in

Vietnam

China is slightly different from the

other cluster countries

ISNIE 2011, Stanford

Second Cluster

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The geography of the nine countries of the

second cluster is rather various

Practically all the points are located in

the interval 2-3

In the second cluster the judicial system is

highly respected

0 1 2 3

zambia

thailand

spain

south korea

morocco

japan

iran

indonesia

burkina faso

mean of armed_forces mean of policemean of government mean of parliamentmean of political_parties mean of justicemean of press mean of television

ISNIE 2011, Stanford

Third Cluster

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Third cluster includes countries of the former Soviet Union, Eastern European countries

The points are shifted more to the right,

which corresponds to lower levels of trust

The ordered system of preferences: the army,

the police, the government, the parliament, the political parties

0 1 2 3 4

ukrainetrinidad and tobago

taiwanslovenia

serbiarussian federation

romaniapoland

perumoldova

mexicogeorgiaethiopia

chilebulgaria

brazil

mean of armed_forces mean of policemean of government mean of parliamentmean of political_parties mean of justicemean of press mean of television

ISNIE 2011, Stanford

Fourth Cluster

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The fourth cluster includes the

Scandinavian countries Switzerland, Turkey

and Cyprus

Almost all points are located, as in the

second cluster, in the interval 2-3, but the order of the points is

different

The press and television are

unpopular ii the fourth cluster

0 1 2 3

turkey

switzerland

sweden

norway

finland

cyprus

mean of armed_forces mean of policemean of government mean of parliamentmean of political_parties mean of justicemean of press mean of television

ISNIE 2011, Stanford

Fifth Cluster

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The fifth cluster includes the economically

developed countries

The most popular are the force institutions

and the judicial system

The government, parliament, political

parties, press and television are very

unpopular

0 1 2 3

united states

netherlands

italy

great britain

germany

france

canada

australia

mean of armed_forces mean of policemean of government mean of parliamentmean of political_parties mean of justicemean of press mean of television

ISNIE 2011, Stanford

Results of ordered logit models for clusters

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 Armed Forces Police

Govern-ment

Parlia-ment

Political_Parties Justice Press Television

SexI+ II+ III+ IV+ IV- V-   IV+ V+ II- V+ II- III- I+

I+ II- IV- V-

AgeI+ II- III- IV+ V- II- III- V- III- III- V- II- III-

I+ II- III+ IV+ V+

II- III- IV- V+

II+ III-IV-

EducmidI+ III- IV+ V-

I+ II- IV+ V- I+ IV+ V-

I+ II+ IV+ V- I+ IV+ V- I+ IV+ V-

I+ II- III- V+

I+ II- III- V+

Educhigh I+ II+ IV+ I+ II+ IV+I+ II+ III+ V-

I+ II+ III+ V-

I+ II+ III+ V- I+ II+ V-

I+ II- IV-V+

I+ III+ IV+ V+

IncomeI- III- IV+ V-

I- II- III- IV+ V-

I- II- III- IV+V-

I- II- III- V-

I- II- III- V- I- II- III- V- I- III- I- III- IV-

MaritalII- III- IV- V- I- III- IV- I- IV-

I- III-IV- I- IV- I- IV- I-

I- II- III-IV-

Un-employed I+ II+ V+

I+ II+ III+ IV+ V+ V+ V+ V+

II- III+ IV+ V+ V+ II- V+

Supervisor I+ II- V- I+ II+I+ II+ III- V-

I+ II+ III- I+ III- I+ II-

I+ III+ IV+ V+

I+ III+ IV+ V+

ISNIE 2011, Stanford

Conclusions

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• In modeling the degree of public confidence in basic social and political institutions, it is necessary to take into account the specific characteristics of each country.

• Marital status contributes to greater confidence in the basic institutions; therefore, it makes sense to promote family values.

• The degree of confidence in major social and political institutions increases with income, thus creating favorable conditions for the growth of welfare (a decrease in the tax burden and help with the development of small and medium enterprises, providing affordable loans), could lead to an increase in public trust.

• Reducing corruption in the country would increase the credibility of law enforcement and the judiciary.

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