Demand Forecasting.ppt

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A.Latha .,MBA., M.Phil G2 & G5 September

Unit II

Demand forecasting


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Demand Forecasting

Demand forecasting is a tool toscientically predict the likelydemand of a product in the future

Demand forecasting is an estimate ofsales in dollars or physical units for aspecied future period under a

proposed Marketing Plan

American Marketing association

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ategor sat onle!el " #ime $ %ature of

&oods' Firm (e!el Micro' Industry le!el

)conomy Macro le!el' *hort term forecasting a year'

(ong term forecasting + , - yrs to ./

, 0/ 1rs' Consumer &oods

Capital &oods

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A.Latha .,MBA., M.Phil G2 & G5 September

#echni2ues of Demand

Forecasting

3hat do people say4

3hat do People Do43hat ha!e people Done 4

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Factors determiningForecasting Methods

Immediate o56ecti!es of forecasting

Cost in!ol!ed

#ime perspecti!e Comple7ity of the techni2ue

%ature $ 2uality of a!aila5le data

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*u56ecti!e methods ofForecasting

Consumer 8pinion sur!ey

senses sur!ey" *ample sur!ey" stratiedsampling" 9uestionnaire " Inter!ie:

schedule '

*ales Force Composite

)7perts 8pinion method &roup

Discussion $ Delphi #echni2ues' Market simulation

#est Marketing

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7/21A.Latha .,MBA., M.Phil G2 & G5 September

9uantitati!e Methods of

Demand Forecasting

#rend Pro6ection

&eneral Pattern of change inthe long run'

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#rend Pro6ection

*ecular #rend change occursduring the long period '

*easonal #rend seasonal !ariations:ith in a year'

Cyclical #rend cyclical mo!ement ofthe demand'

;andom )!ents ;andom


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Methods of #rend Pro6ection

&raphical Method

(east s2uare Method

A;IMA =o7 >enkins Method'

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!ear SAL"S #$%'"S

.??+ @/

.?? +/

.??- @@

.??B /

.??? +@

0/// 0

&;APICA( M)#8D


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&raphical Method

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*moothing #echni2ues

Mo!ing A!erage

3eighted A!erage

)7ponential smoothing

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*imple Mo!ing A!erage

(a) *eb March

April Ma+ ()e (l+ A- Sept 'ct

.B/ 0// .// ../ +/ B/ .0/ .+/ ?/ .0/

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Find the Mo!ing A!erage for $ +Months


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=arometric #echni2ues

Construct an inde7 of rele!anteconomic indicators $ forecastfuture trends on the 5asis of theseIndicatorsE

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=arometric #echni2ues

#he leading series =a5y po:der'

Concurrent series

#he lagging series

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)conometric #echni2ues

It can 5e dened as the social*cience in :hich the tools ofeconomic theory " Mathematics $

*tatistical Inference are applied tothe analysis of economic Phenomena

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)conometric #echni2ues

;egression Analysis " Multiple;egression Analysis '

It attempts to assess the relationship

5et:een at least t:o !aria5les one ormore independent and one dependentG"

9uantum of *ales H PriceGa

Ad!ertisingG5 Price of the ri!alproductsGc Personal disposa5leincome 1 u

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(imitations of DemandForecasting

Change in fashion

Consumer psychology

Uneconomical (ack of )7perts

(ack of past data

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Demand Forecasting.ppt

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