Getting the Green Getting the Green Light: Light: An Environmental Assessment of An Environmental Assessment of Today’s Passenger Vehicles Today’s Passenger Vehicles James Kliesch James Kliesch American Council for an American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy Energy-Efficient Economy
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Getting the Green Light:Getting the Green Light:An Environmental Assessment of An Environmental Assessment of
American Council for an American Council for an Energy-Efficient EconomyEnergy-Efficient Economy
04/10/23
Topical OverviewTopical Overview
Why should we be concerned?Why should we be concerned? What makes a vehicle What makes a vehicle
green/mean?green/mean? How “green” has changed (or not) How “green” has changed (or not)
over the last five yearsover the last five years Top stories of 2004Top stories of 2004 Crystal ball: what lies aheadCrystal ball: what lies ahead
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Why be concerned?Why be concerned?
Every 2 seconds in this country, a new Every 2 seconds in this country, a new vehicle is purchasedvehicle is purchased
Every other one of those is a light duty Every other one of those is a light duty truck (pickup, minivan, SUV), typically truck (pickup, minivan, SUV), typically with higher tailpipe emissions and with higher tailpipe emissions and lower fuel economylower fuel economy
U.S. passenger vehicles consume U.S. passenger vehicles consume ~125 billion gallons of gasoline each ~125 billion gallons of gasoline each year.year.
Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) continue to growcontinue to grow
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How do you address How do you address consumption & emissions?consumption & emissions?
One way: promote the One way: promote the manufacture and purchase of manufacture and purchase of clean, efficient vehicles.clean, efficient vehicles.
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ACEEE’s Green BookACEEE’s Green Book®®
Consumer guide, produced Consumer guide, produced annually since Feb 1998annually since Feb 1998
7th edition (model year ‘04) 7th edition (model year ‘04) released 2/10/04released 2/10/04
Available at www.GreenerCars.comAvailable at www.GreenerCars.com
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GreenerCars.comGreenerCars.com
Three main aspects to the website:Three main aspects to the website:– Popular Tables (Greenest, Meanest, Popular Tables (Greenest, Meanest,
Best-in-Class)Best-in-Class)– General consumer info on vehicles and General consumer info on vehicles and
the environment, how to buy green, etc.the environment, how to buy green, etc.– Database of all MY2000-2004 Database of all MY2000-2004
vehicles/configurations (approx. 6,200 vehicles/configurations (approx. 6,200 listings), and their “Green Scores”listings), and their “Green Scores”
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What Determines a Vehicle’s What Determines a Vehicle’s Green-ness?Green-ness?
Fuel EconomyFuel Economy– Affects overall GHG emissions, plus non-Affects overall GHG emissions, plus non-
– A vehicle’s A vehicle’s emission standardemission standard specifies specifies quantity of CO, HC, NOquantity of CO, HC, NOxx, PM emitted, PM emitted
– LEV IILEV II– ULEV IIULEV II– SULEV IISULEV II– PZEVPZEV
FederalFederal– Tier 2 bin 11Tier 2 bin 11– Tier 2 bin 10Tier 2 bin 10– ……– Tier 2 bin 5Tier 2 bin 5– ......– Tier 2 bin 2Tier 2 bin 2– Tier 2 bin 1Tier 2 bin 1
Select Tier 1 and Tier 2 Full Useful Select Tier 1 and Tier 2 Full Useful Life Exhaust Emission StandardsLife Exhaust Emission Standards
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14
PM (g/mi)
NO
x (g
/mi)
Tier 1 LDT4
Tier 1 LDV
Tier 2 bin 11
Tier 2 bin 10
Tier 2 bin 9
Tier 2 bin 8Tier 2 bin 7bin 6
bin 5
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Green Vehicles Have...Green Vehicles Have...
High Fuel EconomyHigh Fuel Economy Low Tailpipe EmissionsLow Tailpipe Emissions
Generally, what are those today?Generally, what are those today?– Hybrid-electric vehiclesHybrid-electric vehicles– Fuel efficient gasoline vehicles that Fuel efficient gasoline vehicles that
Generally, what are those today?Generally, what are those today?– Large SUVsLarge SUVs– Large pickup trucksLarge pickup trucks– Performance-oriented sports carsPerformance-oriented sports cars– Diesels (interesting case, because high FE)Diesels (interesting case, because high FE)
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What a difference a half-decade What a difference a half-decade makes...makes...
Greenest VehiclesGreenest VehiclesModel Years 2000 & 2004Model Years 2000 & 2004
Model Year 2000Model Year 2000– GM EV1GM EV1– Nissan Altra EVNissan Altra EV– Honda Civic GXHonda Civic GX– Honda InsightHonda Insight– Toyota RAV4 EVToyota RAV4 EV– Toyota Camry CNGToyota Camry CNG– Ford Electric RangerFord Electric Ranger– Chevy MetroChevy Metro– Toyota EchoToyota Echo– Nissan Sentra CANissan Sentra CA– Mitsubishi MirageMitsubishi Mirage– Honda Civic HXHonda Civic HX
Model Year 2004Model Year 2004– Honda Civic GXHonda Civic GX– Honda InsightHonda Insight– Toyota PriusToyota Prius– Honda Civic HybridHonda Civic Hybrid– Toyota EchoToyota Echo– Nissan SentraNissan Sentra– Honda Civic HXHonda Civic HX– Mazda 3Mazda 3– Toyota CorollaToyota Corolla– Hyundai ElantraHyundai Elantra– Scion xAScion xA– Honda CivicHonda Civic
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Then again...Then again...
Meanest VehiclesMeanest VehiclesModel Years 2000 & 2004Model Years 2000 & 2004
Model Year 2000Model Year 2000– Chevy SuburbanChevy Suburban– Dodge Ram 2500Dodge Ram 2500– Ferrari MaranelloFerrari Maranello– Chevy SilveradoChevy Silverado– Ford ExcursionFord Excursion– Dodge B2500 VanDodge B2500 Van– Chevy K2500 PickupChevy K2500 Pickup– Cadillac EscaladeCadillac Escalade– GMC Yukon DenaliGMC Yukon Denali– Toyota Land CruiserToyota Land Cruiser– Ferrari 456MFerrari 456M– Land Rover Range RoverLand Rover Range Rover
Model Year 2004Model Year 2004– Volkswagen TouaregVolkswagen Touareg– Land Rover Range RoverLand Rover Range Rover– Ford ExcursionFord Excursion– Dodge Ram 1500Dodge Ram 1500– Lexus LX 470Lexus LX 470– Toyota Land CruiserToyota Land Cruiser– Hummer H2Hummer H2– GMC Yukon XL K2500GMC Yukon XL K2500– Chevy Suburban K2500Chevy Suburban K2500– Toyota SequoiaToyota Sequoia– Lamborghini MurcielagoLamborghini Murcielago– Land Rover Discovery Ser. IILand Rover Discovery Ser. II
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Top Stories of Model Year Top Stories of Model Year 20042004
(1) Federal Tier 2 and California LEV (1) Federal Tier 2 and California LEV II tailpipe emission standards go II tailpipe emission standards go into effect.into effect.– Greater #’s of SULEVs & PZEVs -- Greater #’s of SULEVs & PZEVs --
cleanest emissions levels of gasoline cleanest emissions levels of gasoline vehicles evervehicles ever
– On the whole, modest improvement On the whole, modest improvement federally, although standout models federally, although standout models existexist
Increasing Number of SULEV Increasing Number of SULEV and PZEV Nameplatesand PZEV Nameplates
Gasoline SULEV/PZEV Penetration
23
26
4
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Na
me
pla
tes
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Top Stories of Model Year Top Stories of Model Year 20042004
(2) Hybrids continue to be a big story(2) Hybrids continue to be a big story– New Toyota Prius, now midsize car, gets New Toyota Prius, now midsize car, gets
3rd highest overall score, and highest 3rd highest overall score, and highest rating of gasoline powered sedans rating of gasoline powered sedans (meets PZEV/Tier 2 bin 3 emissions; FE: (meets PZEV/Tier 2 bin 3 emissions; FE: 60/51)60/51)
– Mild hybrid GMC Sierra Hybrid/Chevy Mild hybrid GMC Sierra Hybrid/Chevy Silverado Hybrid (FE: 19 mpg hybrid vs. Silverado Hybrid (FE: 19 mpg hybrid vs. 17 mpg conventional)17 mpg conventional)
The Growth of The Growth of Hybrid-Electric VehiclesHybrid-Electric Vehicles
Top Stories of Model Year Top Stories of Model Year 20042004
(3) Overall, FE continues to decline(3) Overall, FE continues to decline– Most recent confirmed information Most recent confirmed information
shows combined car/truck fuel economy shows combined car/truck fuel economy at lowest level since 1980at lowest level since 1980
– Due to high sales of large SUVs and Due to high sales of large SUVs and pickupspickups
– These market segments have been These market segments have been aggressively pursued by import aggressively pursued by import companies (i.e., not just a Big 3 problem)companies (i.e., not just a Big 3 problem)
Near-Term (Present-2010)Near-Term (Present-2010) – Continued improvement of gasoline-Continued improvement of gasoline-
powered vehiclespowered vehicles– Release of new hybrid vehiclesRelease of new hybrid vehicles– Continued deployment of an Continued deployment of an
alternative technologies portfolioalternative technologies portfolio– Room for diesel?Room for diesel?
Near-Term (Present-2010)Near-Term (Present-2010)
Continued improvement of Continued improvement of gasoline-powered vehiclesgasoline-powered vehicles– Lightweight materials use; engine Lightweight materials use; engine
– Seen today in Honda Civic, Nissan Seen today in Honda Civic, Nissan Sentra CA, Honda Accord PZEV, Ford Sentra CA, Honda Accord PZEV, Ford Focus PZEV, othersFocus PZEV, others
Near-Term (Present-2010)Near-Term (Present-2010)
Release of new hybrid-electric Release of new hybrid-electric vehiclesvehicles– Ford Escape HEVFord Escape HEV– Lexus RX400HLexus RX400H– Toyota HighlanderToyota Highlander– Honda AccordHonda Accord– Saturn VUESaturn VUE– Others: Chevrolet Equinox (2006), Malibu Others: Chevrolet Equinox (2006), Malibu
(2007)(2007)
Near-Term (Present-2010)Near-Term (Present-2010)
Continued deployment of an Continued deployment of an alternative technologies portfolioalternative technologies portfolio– Alt fuel vehicles, primarily in fleet use Alt fuel vehicles, primarily in fleet use
(at least initially)(at least initially)– Electric minicarsElectric minicars– Test deployment of fuel cell vehiclesTest deployment of fuel cell vehicles
Near-Term (Present-2010)Near-Term (Present-2010)
Room for diesel?Room for diesel?– Numerous questions remain about Numerous questions remain about
the viability of significant light duty the viability of significant light duty diesel penetrationdiesel penetration
Diesel Car and Light Truck Diesel Car and Light Truck Retail Sales, 1970-2001Retail Sales, 1970-2001
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
CalendarYear
diesel truck sales
diesel car sales
A Host of Issues AffectA Host of Issues AffectDiesel ProspectsDiesel Prospects
Far-Term (2030 and beyond)Far-Term (2030 and beyond)– Stronger presence of fuel cell vehiclesStronger presence of fuel cell vehicles
Need time to develop cell technologies Need time to develop cell technologies and production techniquesand production techniques
Need time to address dual-conundrum of Need time to address dual-conundrum of (1) using hydrogen and dealing with(1) using hydrogen and dealing with storage/infrastructure, or (2) using liquid storage/infrastructure, or (2) using liquid fuel (such as methanol) and dealing with fuel (such as methanol) and dealing with processingprocessing
Thank YouThank You
James KlieschJames KlieschAmerican Council for an Energy-Efficient EconomyAmerican Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy
1001 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 8011001 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 801