Degree Holders in Scotland’s Labour Market and the Impact of the Recession

Degree Holders in Scotland’s Labour Market and the Impact of the Recession

Workshop 1Lifelong Learning Statistics

User’s Conference (March 2010)

• Available StatisticsDestinations of Leavers from Higher Education

(Latest Statistics Publication available from -)

http://scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/12/10091627/0

Data Collected by Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA). For more information please see -http://www.hesa.ac.uk/index.php/content/view/143/173/

Annual Updates produced on 6-month destinations.

A longitudinal survey (based on 3.5 year destinations) is also run, though less frequently

Available Statistics• Latest results are for the 2007/08 Academic Year – the first leavers

to be surveyed during the recession (January 2009)

• Main Destinations for leavers from Scottish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) were –

Permanent UK Employment - 56.3% (↓ 3.3 percentage points)Further Study / Training - 18.9% (↑ 1.4 percentage points)Temporary UK Employment - 10.5% (↑ 1.0 percentage point)Believed Unemployed - 4.9% (↑ 1.2 percentage points)

• Next results (for 2008/09 leavers) due this Summer (Headlines by HESA, followed by more detailed analysis in September)

• DLHE has many positive attributes, including its near universal coverage of leavers (its more like a census than a survey) and the level of detail it can provide by different demographics, institutions and subject groups

• Potential disadvantages of DLHE include –• 1. The Time Lag between the ‘event’ and publication• 2. The narrow focus on 1 year’s worth of leavers• 3. Is 6-months enough time to properly assess destinations?

Available Statistics

• To supplement DLHE, other sources of statistics have been investigated.

• Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Annual Population Survey (APS)

• Claimant Count Statistics (JCP)• Quarterly Employee Jobs Estimates • Public Sector Employment Statistics

• Data from this work can be viewed on our web-pages• http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Lifelong-learnin

g/Datasets

Available Statistics

• Building on DLHE, what do these sources suggest about destinations for degree-holders?

• What has been the impact of the recession?

• Where might we look to see evidence of a change in fortunes?

1. Degree Holders are a growing force in Scotland’s Labour Market

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2001Q4

2002Q4

2003Q4

2004Q4

2005Q4

2006Q4

2007Q4

2008Q4

2009Q4

Degree Holders as %of Labour Market

Degree Holders as %of Working AgePopulation

Source: Labour Force Survey

2. The proportion of Working Age Population made up of

Degree Holders varies by council

Source: Annual Population Survey 2008

3. The employment rate of working-age degree-holders in Scotland is much higher than for those without and continues to hold up far better

87.988.3

87.5

7072.2

73.9

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55

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2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4

Empl

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At least a Degree Level Qualification

Below Degree Level Qualification

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-5

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Change in Employment Rate Between 2007 Q4 and 2009 Q4

Source: Labour Force Survey

4. The unemployment rate of working-age degree-holders in Scotland is much lower than for those without and has seen a smaller increase

Source: Labour Force Survey

1.92.5 2.7

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9.1

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2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4

Une

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At least a Degree Level Qualification

Below Degree Level Qualification

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ploy

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e Change in Unemployment Rate Between 2007 Q4 and 2009 Q4

70.8%

69.0%

16.6% 18.9%

12.6% 12.1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2001Q4

2002Q4

2003Q4

2004Q4

2005Q4

2006Q4

2007Q4

2008Q4

2009Q4

Prop

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In a Graduate Level Occupation

In a Non-Graduate Level Occupation

Unemployed or Economically Inactive

Source: Labour Force Survey

5. Whilst employment rate remains high for degree-holders, the data suggests some shift from graduate to non-graduate level occupations. Further updates will be required before any clear trend is detected

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

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Jan-07

Apr-07

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Time

Cla

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Monthly Figures

Annual Moving Average

Start of UK Recession

End of UK Recession

6. The most up-to-date available data is from the Claimant Count. A moving average can be used to adjust for seasonal fluctuations. The chart below shows the number of people seeking a graduate-level

occupation (not necessarily including all graduates on the CC)

Source: JCP Data from the NOMIS Website

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

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Jan-07

Apr-07

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Monthly Figures

Annual Moving Average Start of UK Recession

End of UK Recession

6. Similarly, Graduate-Level Occupation vacancies at Job Centre Plus show huge seasonal fluctuations. Any sustained increase in the

moving-average may provide an early indication of improved conditions

Source: JCP Data from the NOMIS Website

Degree Holders (Proportion)

Public Administration,

Education & Health, 48.1%

Banking, Finance &

Insurance etc, 21.6%

Distribution, Hotels &

Restaurants, 7.6%

Construction and

Manufacturing, 9.5%

Other Services, 10.2%

All Workers (Proportion)

Public Administration,

Education & Health, 31.8%

Banking, Finance &

Insurance etc, 14.3%

Distribution, Hotels &

Restaurants, 18.9%

Construction and

Manufacturing, 18.3%

Other Services, 10.9%

Source: Annual Population Survey – July 2008 to June 2009

7. Degree Holders (both short-term (DLHE) and all holders) have a very different industrial sector profile to that for all workers in Scotland.

Public Administration, Education and HealthPublic Administration, Education and Health Over the year to Sept 2009 Employee jobs up 1.3% to 737,700(due mainly to Health – PSE statistics show NHS employmentcontinues to grow)

Banking, Finance and InsuranceBanking, Finance and Insurance Over the year to Sept 2009 Employee jobs down 4.1% to 435,100(PSE statistics report 16.0% contraction over the year up to Q4 2009 inthose employed in Scotland by the recapitalised Financial Institutions)

Construction and ManufacturingConstruction and Manufacturing Over the year to Sept 2009 Employee jobs down 6.9% to 329,400

Distribution, Hotels and RestaurantsDistribution, Hotels and Restaurants Over the year to Sept 2009 Employee jobs down 1.9% to 511,900

8. Quarterly Employee Jobs Estimates provide an indication of the fortunes of each Industrial Sector. Public Sector Employment (PSE)

statistics also provide further detail for different areas within the Public Sector

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Scotland North England London / South East

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Public Administration, Education and HealthBanking, Finance and Insurance

9. The industrial profile of Degree-Holders in Scotland is very similar to the Northern Half of England. London and South/East have a more

even match between Public Admin and Banking/Finance

Source: Annual Population Survey – July 2008 to June 2009

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At least a Degree LevelQualificationBelow Degree LevelQualification

Change in Employment Rate Between 2007 Q4 and 2009 Q4

10. Changes in both the working-age employment rate of those with degrees and those without vary by region. The bigger fall in degree-

holder employment in London/South East may be due to the larger role of the Banking and Finance Sector in this region

Source: Labour Force Survey

0.81.2

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Scotland North England London / South East

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e At least a Degree LevelQualificationBelow Degree LevelQualification

Change in Unemployment Rate Between 2007 Q4 and 2009 Q4

Source: Labour Force Survey

10. Changes in both the working-age unemployment rate of those with degrees and those without vary by region. London and the South East

appear to have witnessed a larger increase in degree-holder unemployment than both Scotland and the North of England

Discussion• 1. What questions and views do users have on this analysis?

• 2. What might it suggest for the future? For those degree-holders already in the Labour Market? For those graduating in the summer of 2010?For those graduating in the years beyond 2010?

• 3. What questions might this work raise for further analysis?Do any other sources of information exist to build on/complement this work?Are there other key questions in this field that our large-scale survey data couldinvestigate?

• 4. Do users have other interests in this field? (for example what happens to those with HE qualifications below degree level likeHNCs/HNDs? Differences by age or gender? Longer-term destinations?

• 5. Anything else?

Contact

Lifelong Learning Statistics Branch

Education Analytical Services Division

Scottish Government

0300 244 1058

[email protected]

March 2010