Government Effectiveness in Countries Responsible for 95% of Global Forest-Based Emissions, 1990 to 2005 No Inventory No Experience Multiple Forest Area Maps by a Nonnational Consultant or Donor Multiple Forest Area Maps by the Country Remote Sensing to Gather Supplementary Data or to Support Inventories Partial Use of Advanced Remote Sensing to Monitor Changes in Forests Multiple Inventories by a Nonnational Consultant or Donor One Inventory by the Country Multiple Inventories by the Country 3 1 3 2 4 No Experience Standard Values by Broad Forest Type One-Time Evaluation of Biomass and Carbon Content, Differentiating by Forest Type 5 6 2 countries 4 countries Conducting Forest Inventories Acquiring and Processing Remote-Sensing Data Using Information on Biomass and Carbon Content GHG emissions caused by human activity contribute to climate change. The use of electricity and heat, for example, is responsible for 25% of global GHG emissions. The destruction and degradation of forests contribute roughly 12%. GLOBAL EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES CHALLENGES FOR FOREST-BASED MITIGATION DEFORESTATION AND GREENHOUSE GASES Brazil 33.0% Cameroon 1.3% Indonesia 26.3% Venezuela 3.4% Democratic Republic of the Congo 3.2% Myanmar 2.8% Bolivia 2.5% Malaysia 2.5% Zambia 1.9% Ecuador 1.5% Cambodia 1.5% Canada 1.3% Philippines 1.3% Peru 1.3% Guatemala 1.1% China 1.0% Russia 1.0% Tanzania 0.9% Honduras 0.9% Papua New Guinea 0.8% Zimbabwe 0.7% Mexico 0.7% Argentina 0.6% 25% Use of electricity and heat 15% Industrial uses of energy 14% Transportation 4% Other sources related to the production and consumption of energy 12% Net forest loss 7% Industrial processes and waste management 14% Agriculture (livestock and fertilizer) Structuring Incentives to Reduce Total Forest-Based Emissions 2 Funding forest preservation in some countries can create incentives to increase deforestation elsewhere. For example, if a country preserves forests by halting the clearing of land for agriculture, the drop in supply of agricultural products may cause prices to rise. The higher prices may prompt landowners in other countries to clear their forests for agricultural production. Capability of Developing Countries to Collect and Process Data Possible Unintended Consequences of Funding Forest Preservation Only in Some Countries Funding for Forest Preservation Supply Prices Developing Country A Developing Country B Developed Country Financial and Technical Assistance Markets Widely compensating forest preservation could reduce the risk that preservation in some locations will create incentives to increase deforestation in others. Initially directing assistance toward countries with relatively strong governance and a large area of threatened forestland, such as Brazil and Indonesia, might be part of an effective strategy. Whether such assistance could improve forest governance is less clear. Cap-and-trade programs or taxes on GHG emissions could create private markets for forest-based GHG reductions that have the potential to generate greater funding for forest preservation. POLICY APPROACHES TO FOREST-BASED MITIGATION 9% Fuel combustion for other purposes in residential and commercial buildings Providing financial and technical assistance and creating markets for trading reductions in forest-based emissions are two approaches the United States and other developed countries might take to support forest preservation in tropical developing countries. Although the two policies can be pursued independently, they might work better in tandem. POSSIBLE POLICY APPROACHES Reducing deforestation in developing countries might make it less expensive for the United States to achieve its own goals for reducing GHG emissions. Measuring Changes in Carbon Storage 1 Many developing nations lack the technical capacity to measure carbon changes over time. Some evidence of the ability to measure such changes is available for 13 of the 25 countries that made the largest contribution to forest-based emissions from 1990 to 2005. The inability of governments to successfully design and implement policies to achieve stated objectives undermines national efforts to reduce emissions. Of the top 25 emitters from 1990 to 2005, 18 ranked in the bottom half of all countries in government effectiveness. Improving Government Effectiveness in Developing Countries 3 Authors: Jonathan Schwabish, Natalie Tawil, and Courtney Griffith Sources: Congressional Budget Office based on information from the World Bank; World Resources Institute; Resources for the Future and Climate Advisers; and LTS International. For more detailed information and citations, see Congressional Budget Office, Deforestation and Greenhouse Gases (January 2012). Turkey 0.6% Nigeria 2.8% Before Funding After Funding After Price Changes Before Price Changes The destruction and degradation of forestland, caused mainly by expanded agricultural activity in tropical developing countries, currently accounts for roughly 12% of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Slowing or eliminating forest loss can potentially make a cost-effective contribution to an international effort to reduce global emissions, but that strategy faces a number of challenges. Financial and technical assistance could help countries develop the capabilities to collect and process useful data on their forest resources and related emissions. 6 2 1 country Less Capability More Capability Less Capability More Capability Less Capability More Capability Percentile Rank 100 75 50 25 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Billions of Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Units Global GHG Emissions Government Effectiveness DR Congo Myanmar Zimbabwe Nigeria Ecuador Venezuela Cambodia Cameroon Papua New Guinea Zambia Honduras Tanzania Russia Peru Indonesia Argentina Brazil Mexico Turkey China Malaysia Canada Bolivia Guatemala Philippines Twenty-five countries, most of which are developing countries in the tropics, accounted for 95% of all forest-based emissions from 1990 to 2005. FORESTS AND GHG EMISSIONS Production and Consumption of Energy Other Sources