1 Defining the risk of Zika and chikungunya virus transmission in human population 1 centers of the eastern United States 2 3 Carrie A. Manore 1.2* , Richard S. Ostfeld 3 , Folashade B. Agusto 4 , Holly Gaff 5,6 , Shannon L. 4 LaDeau 3 5 1 Center for Computational Science 6 Tulane University 7 6823 St. Charles Avenue 8 New Orleans, LA 70118 USA 9 10 2 Department of Mathematics 11 Tulane University 12 6823 St. Charles Avenue 13 New Orleans, LA 70118 USA 14 15 3 Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies 16 Box AB, 2801 Sharon Turnpike 17 Millbrook, NY 12545 USA 18 19 4 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology 20 University of Kansas 21 3002 Haworth Hall 22 1200 Sunnyside Avenue 23 Lawrence, Kansas 66045 24 25 5 Department of Biological Sciences 26 Old Dominion University 27 202J MGB 28 Norfolk, VA 23529 29 30 6 Honorary Associate Professor 31 Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science 32 University of KwaZulu-Natal 33 Private Bag X54001 34 Durban 4000, South Africa 35 36 *Corresponding author: [email protected] 37 38 Keywords: Zika, chikungunya, Aedes albopictus, mathematical model, outbreak risk, United 39 States 40 Classification: Ecology 41 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license a certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not this version posted July 24, 2016. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/061382 doi: bioRxiv preprint